Posted on 09/22/2016 1:19:26 PM PDT by Sybeck1
Survey also shows written-off GOP senator trailing by just 2 points
Republican Donald Trump is within 6 points of Democrat Hillary Clinton in President Obama’s home state, a poll released Wednesday suggests.
The survey by Emerson College, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, shows Clinton leading Trump 45 percent to 39 percent in Illinois. The state’s Democratic challenger for the Senate, Rep. Tammy Duckworth, leads incumbent Republican Mark Kirk by 2 points. That is closer than other polls; most observers consider Kirk the most endangered incumbent senator running for re-election this year.
The survey found similar results in the presidential race in Wisconsin, with Clinton leading 45 percent to 38 percent.
Spencer Kimball, who conducted the polls, said the results fit a familiar pattern he has seen in other states — Clinton continues to struggle with voters who backed Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. In Illinois, only 53 percent of Sanders voters said they would vote for Clinton. Trump, meanwhile, has the support of 60 percent of the voters who cast ballots for Sens. Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio in the primary. Clinton gets less than 7 percent of Rubio and Cruz voters.
"Cruz and Rubio supporters have basically come home, or they're going to [Libertarian Gary] Johnson," Kimball said. "They're not going to Clinton."
Obama carried Illinois by 17 points in 2012, and a Loras Collage poll released this week gave Clinton a 13-point lead in the Land of Lincoln. Loras pegged Duckworth's lead in the Senate race at 5 points.
Kimball said he still expects Clinton to win Illinois but the 6- and 7-point margins in states where a Republican has not won Electoral College votes since 1988 and 1984, respectively, further illustrate how much larger the electoral map may be this election.
Kimball said for Trump to actually win Illinois or Wisconsin, he would have to both hope Clinton fails to close the deal with skeptical Sanders supporters and peel votes away from Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In the Emerson poll, he took 15 percent of Sanders voters in Illinois, while 15 percent went to Johnson and 12 percent preferred Stein.
"The more those voters go to Johnson and Stein, the better Clinton does," he said.
Kimball said support for third-party candidates that shows up in pre-election polls tends to melt away by the time voters actually cast ballots. If that happens, he said, Clinton is more likely to benefit.
A similar dynamic is at work in the Senate race, Kimball said. He said the 2-point margin is mainly due to the fact that 11 percent of respondents said they would vote for someone else and an additional 9 percent were undecided. The Libertarian and Green Parties both have candidates on the ballot, but neither is well-known or well-funded. He said the fundamentals favor Duckworth — she has a 37 percent favorable rating, compared with just 27 percent of voters who approve of Kirk.
"Kirk's in a bad place," Kimball said.
The Wisconsin Senate race looks even bleaker for the GOP. Incumbent Republican Ron Johnson trails former Sen. Russ Feingold by 10 points.
"That Senate race looks like Feingold will pick it up," he said.
Was Kirk #NeverTrump?
This is so much fun to watch. It is all just melting away for the leftists. I am convinced that hillary is in an avoidance/ avoidance conflict like I have never seen before. If she goes to the debate she risks certain and overwhelming defeat and seizure or coughing. If she lies out of it with a “relapse” of her non existent “pneumonia” ,she gets laughed at and total disrespect and loses. She is between a rock and a hard place. GO TRUMP!! WE ARE WINNING!!
I told TRUMP to go after Rahm! A Vote for Hillary is a Vote for her best friend Rahm!
I am not shocked at all.
For Trump to win Illinois would be such a nice send-off for the President.
Hopefully, the Chicago Democrat cheating machine is rusty.
Trump makes it look like it will be FUN to have him as president
The old hag is just more of the same...
If you are going to vote for a democrat masquerading as a republican ( Kirk) just go ahead and get an honest Democrat leftist. same damned thing.
Yes, a real Liberal.
Illinois is probably another state where once you get out of the big megapolitan areas (Chicago being the case here), Trump is probably very competitive and maybe even ahead of Hillary. Undoubtedly also doing much better there now than Romney or McCain.
Trump is going to shock people here in Illinois. Mark my words.
If close, the Bolsheviks who control Crook County will report last and they will “discover” enough votes for Comrade Hellry to win.
This is hard to believe for me as I know many people who have told me they will not vote for anyone for President in this election. Yes, I live in Illinois (at least part of the time), and AM voting. It would be wonderful for me to think my vote might actually make a difference.
Shock?? Pffft! ...wake me up when trump is leading in IL and the word “shock” would be an understatement!!
I live in West suburban Downers Grove IL and I see no Trump OR Hillary signs anywhere out my way. I get into suburban Cook County abd I don’t see any signs there either. I DO see local candiate signs all over the place but NO PRESIDENTIAL SIGNS!
Could he do a rally at Cairo or somewhere away from Chicago and boost this number?
Naperville would be better. Then Rockford.
Then Moline or Peoria.
L
Oh my! Only 6 points behind in IL.
Wow!
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