Odds site downgrades Cornyn's chances for relection

Campaignline ^ | 7-17

[rmmcdaniell]

From the site:

John Cornyn (R) favored over Ron Kirk (D), 8 to 7 (53.3% chance Cornyn will win; chances downgraded from 54.5% on 7/17)

Though Cornyn should be able to win this race, his campaign has yet to get off the ground and the GOP is increasingly worried.

[rmmcdaniell]

This oddsmaker is a fair one.

[rmmcdaniell]

Darn, the title should read ELECTION not Re-election since this is an open seat being vacated by Phil Gramm. Stupid mistake

[DownWithGreenspan]

I'm familiar with that site from past election cycles, and I would say that the oddsmaker (Ron Facheaux, who is a Democrat) tilts nearly all the close races to the left.

He brags about his track record, but in a system where (in recent years) well more than 90% of incumbents running for re-election do get re-elected, a "success rate" in the 90% range is hardly impressive. Facheaux is a wishful-thinking liberal, but he's not as bad as some of the others out there.

None of this is to say that Cornyn is a shoo-in in the Lone Statr State. While it is hard to picture Texas voting for an ultra-liberal race-baiting demagogue like Ron Kirk, Cornyn had better get off his ass soon and start campaigning like he means to win. I'd look for something on the order of a 55%-45% win for Cornyn, but the longer he goes with this uninspiring, milquetoast campaign, the closer it's going to be in the end.

DWG

[Hellwege]

I think anything below a 95% success rate in elections in the last cycles is a disaapointing result.
In my opinion Cornyn is already down to a 53% win, Perry will get 55 or 56%.

[BellStar]

Ron Kirk left Dallas in deep eh, debt and not one person
is talking about the flub of a convention center he brout
Dallas down with.

[BlackRazor]

"I'm familiar with that site from past election cycles, and I would say that the oddsmaker (Ron Facheaux, who is a Democrat) tilts nearly all the close races to the left."

Well, I have to say I like his House race predictions. If he is accurate, the Republicans will expand their majority. Assuming the favorites win in each race, the Republicans would come out with 222 seats. But wait! That does not count 7 races that are given 50-50 odds; it does not count JC Watts' OK 4th District; it does not count any of the 5 NY districts that are in limbo pending reapportionment; and it doesn't count TX-D Ralph Hall who has said he'll vote for a GOP speaker. In other words, 228 GOP seats might be more accurate, based on this site's predictions.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"In my opinion Cornyn is already down to a 53% win, Perry will get 55 or 56%."

It's remarkable how bad a race Cornyn is running so far. The GOP should've pushed a non-Caucasian for the Senate seat, either the soon-to-be Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza or Henry Bonilla. If Cornyn doesn't do something and soon, he might actually get less than 50% (think of the infamous 1990 VA Governor's race where DEM Doug Wilder narrowly beat the uninspiring GOP'er Marshall Coleman -- many in VA voting for the Black Douglas just to "prove" they weren't racist. The same thing could happen in TX with Kirk). As for Perry, he might end up with practically 60%. Sanchez seems clueless. Too bad Perry and Cornyn can't switch races to fight more evenly-matched candidates !

[Hellwege]

I do believe that GWB can prevent the worst scenario by campaigning in Teas in October, of course he would be missed in SD and GA...

[fieldmarshaldj]

Not to mention here in Tennessee... I'm still a bit annoyed at Dubya for failing to campaign for our candidates in VA & NJ last year, which played a part in our losing.

[jf55510]

It's remarkable how bad a race Cornyn is running so far. The GOP should've pushed a non-Caucasian for the Senate seat, either the soon-to-be Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza or Henry Bonilla. If Cornyn doesn't do something and soon, he might actually get less than 50%

Cornyn is not running a bad campaign. He is up big time in the last two polls I saw(not that polls mean anything). Also why should he waste money now when Kirk is not? In Texas no one pays any attention to politics until after labor day. That is when everything gears up. Cornyn has been campaigning in cities and towns but has not done any TV spots yet. Also I believe that he started a radio spot in slamming Kirk in Dallas this weekend. Cornyn is doing fine. In Texas the race we are really worried about is the Lite Gov. race.

[Paleo Conservative]

Darn, the title should read ELECTION not Re-election since this is an open seat being vacated by Phil Gramm. Stupid mistake

Deliberate Mistake

[rmmcdaniell]

Deliberate Mistake

And why the hell would anyone want to make that kind of mistake on purpose? And since you know everything, would you mind telling me next week's lottery numbers?

[mwl1]

If Cornyn had a lick of sense he would be all over this Patricia Owen borking going on -- and make Ron Kirk pay dearly.