Jobless Claims Decline to 386,000, Matching Lowest Level in Eight Months

Bloomberg ^ | 10-23-03

[RiflemanSharpe]

ping

[Semper Paratus]

Cue the deeply sadden one.

[LS]

The horror, the horror. Oh the humanity of employed Americans!

If Daschle/Gephardt said that every 100 point fall in the Dow equaled one Dem House seat gain (or something to that effect back in 2004), is there a new equation that every 5,000 drop in jobless claims equals +1% in Bush's re-elect #s?

[harpseal]

Ping

On or off let me know

[harpseal]

Glad to see this given the amount of economic stimulus this should have happened at least in June.

[JohnnyZ]

is there a new equation that every 5,000 drop in jobless claims equals +1% in Bush's re-elect #s?

I think it's roughly every 0.1% drop in unemployment = 0.5% for Bush.

So if unemployment drops to 5%, and you figure it's a 50.5-49.5 Bush lead now with 6.1% unemployment, he'd win easily, 54-46.

It's also important to watch unemployment figures by state. Wisconsin, a key battleground, is at 5.7% and falling. Other battleground states:

Oregon: 8.0%
Washington: 7.6%
Michigan: 7.4%
Illinois: 7.1%
California: 6.4%
New Mexico: 6.1%
West Virginia & Ohio: 5.8%
Arizona: 5.6%
Missouri: 5.4%
Pennsylvania: 5.3%
Florida & Nevada: 5.2%
Minnesota & Iowa: 4.6%

I think Michigan and Illinois are a lost cause unless national unemployment improves dramatically, but Bush lost 'em both last time anyway. The Left Coast will be tough, even though Bush narrowly lost Oregon and Washington in 2000.

Minnesota, Iowa, and Pennsylvania look like solid pickups, along with a solid win in Florida.

[JohnnyZ]

Unemployment by state:

http://www.bls.gov/web/laumstrk.htm

[clamper1797]

Great ... when do I get my new job in hi tech ... a "job" at Burger King" doesn't count

[joyful1]

What has yet to be reported, and watch this figure carefully, is the HUGE sums of money being pulled out of American markets by our enemies.

Yes sir, the war of terror is going to hurt us as our enemy kicks us where it counts...the pocketbook.

China, Russia, mid-Easterns and others who have been propping up our debt, are going to un-prop it. We are about to witness much pain and panic.

[harpseal]

You get that new job in high tech when the government starts puts policies in place that seek to maintain American economic strength instead of developing nations economic strength. In short when the governmet implements my start of an economic program.

[LS]

Agree these are the keys, but AZ will not go Dem. I think even as things stand now, Bush would win OR, Iowa, NM, and Wisc---all states he lost last time---and keep OH and W VA. I think he would take either PA or Mich, probably the former. This gets close to landslide territory as is.

[clamper1797]

I've been out since Aug 22 ... since then I have had 3 phone calls and 1 interview in high tech and have put out 100+ resumes. So I thought that I would take the advise of a few well meaning "start your own business" types out here and start my own computer repair business. Well, I decided to call a couple of existing (3) computer repair businesses in the area to see if they needed help. I figured the best way to learn the "ropes" was to work for someone who had an established business first.

Each one I called said the same thing ... they didn't need help and the have had to let go of their people because there is no work to be done right now.

I then talked to my friend who builds decks and docks to see if I could pound nails with him (bad knees and all) ... he said that he had a couple of job pending but they fell though cause people don't have the money to pay for the work right now. His power was turned off last night (no joke) cause he couldn't pay the bill. He's moving on to a delapideted house boat cause he can't pay his condo rent now ... lack of work.

My other friend (Gil) is a roofer and he was putting a roof on a neighbors house (by himself ... he's 51) two days ago. So my deck buddy (Dave) and I went over to see if he needed help. After all a job is a job. Gil said that he had to let all his workers go cause this was the last job he had booked ... and the first he had since Sept.

So Dave and I went over to a friends (Bill) house and ran into the coffee lady Sheryl. Sheryl had (HAD) a roadside coffee business, She would park a custom coffee serving trailer on the side of the major commute road and sell coffee to the commuters. She said she had to shut the business down because the traffic had dwindled to such a point that it wasn't worth the time and she was going to lose her house if she didn't get gainful employment. Bill was a mechanic at the Chevy dealership in Hayward ... he was laid off in Sept. Bill said that none of the dealerships that he applied at are hiring and most are laying off.

I personally have till the end of November until my house goes up for sale. The house next door, which is a mirror image of mine, took 11 months to sell.

So where is this "recovery" I keep hearing about ... cause it sure ain't here.

[oceanview]

these reports are of marginal value, its the monthly jobs report showing the total number of jobs gained/lost that is the key. last month was a good month (until the revision comes in), even though we know that most jobs being created now are lower paying service jobs. Let's see what that report looks like for this month.

[JohnnyZ]

California, eh? Why don't you just get one of the $70,000/yr dockworker jobs?

Unemployment varies by region. My friend runs a framing (house) company and he's been going like gangbusters. Several of my coworkers are looking for a new job and are fighting off companies who want to pay them $10k more than they make currently.

If you have skills and are willing/able to move, getting a job is not a problem, even now when the jobs picture is just starting to improve. If you don't have skills or are pigeonholed into one industry or city/region/state, you're going to have a much tougher time, obviously. That's nothing new.

[harpseal]

So where is this "recovery" I keep hearing about ... cause it sure ain't here.

Well it is not in CT either or any place where I talk to people. It had better start being felt soon or GWB will have problems in a little over 12 months.

[Salvation]

Thanks for the list and bumping!

[clamper1797]

Friend ... I have applied for high tech work in every major high tech area in the country ... including NC. I have NO qualms re-locating for another engineering position. I actually would not mind going to Texas ... BUT at 52 years old I'm not likely to get hired as a totally novice framer (even if my knees could handle it) and I would not re-locate with the hope that someone would take pity and give me a job doing it. Unfortunately, I'm not alone ... there a LOT of us older high tech workers in the same boat.

But sure all my friends could move to NC and become framers ... there's 2 million of us high tech workers unemployed ... can your area support 2 million new (and generally totally in-experienced) framers ???

Oh and BTW I personally helped design the computers in most of the military aircraft that flew in both Iraq wars and I was on the design team that designed the computer in the Galileo space probe. So I guess were going to have to ask India and Red China for those computers for now on cause the all the experienced American engineers are in NC framing houses.

Lastly ... Seems to me the thanks I'm getting for all that high tech work is basically the same "thanks" I got when I returned from Vietnam

[JohnnyZ]

But sure all my friends could move to NC and become framers

Hey, I have an idea, why don't you talk about all the roofing etc. projects you were looking for and then when I mention a housing guy whose business is booming you take it out of context and ignore the rest of my post?

Maybe you can't find a job because your thinking is insular and your people skills nonexistent. Try that on for size; nobody wants a self-centered jerk with an inflated ego on the team.

[evaporation-plus]

I just love those number crunchers....

Last week, the new claims was reported as 384,000, "The lowest in eight months". This week the new claims were 386,000, and last weeks number was revised to 390,000. Sooo, they get to use the same headline once again "The lowest in eight months".