China Warns U.S.: War or Peace

Newsmax ^ | Thursday, Dec. 4, 2003 | Charles R. Smith

[taiwansemi]

China (including Hong Kong) is America's 4th or 5th-largest export destination now. Together, they buy about $30-35 bil. worth of stuff from the U.S. per year.

[Rocky Mountain High]

The Chinese are also notorious for false reporting. They are the biggest book-cookers in the entire world. Their financial situation is far worse than anything that they would ever report.

[taiwansemi]

The same crowd that predicts the coming dominance of China in the world economy, was also the one in the nineties that projected a Japanese century. China's corrupt and antiquated banking system, its political system, and other factors do not bode well for the Chinese economy. Mark my words.

Japan's GDP could not overtake America's in the early 1990s but came close to doing so: $5 tril. vs. $6 tril. The reason Japan couldn't do so was because its population (125 mil.) is less than half of America's (290 mil.). Had Japan had a population as big as America's, it would have been able to overtake the U.S. The bigger a country's population, the greater its GDP potential generally, because the more workers a country has, the more output it can produce. Unlike Japan's GDP potential, China's GDP is not limited by population size. On a purchasing-power parity basis, China's GDP is already about $6.5 tril. Just within the next two decades, China's GDP will exceed America's. It's true China's banking system is unhealthy. But so is Japan's and that didn't stop Japan from having a $5 tril. GDP in the early 1990s or still have about a $5 tril. GDP today. And despite its banking problems, China does have money to spare to loan to America by the purchase of US Treasury bonds.

[taiwansemi]

Even here in Taiwan, I can tell you for sure that the mainland's economy is growing far faster than Taiwan's or Japan's or Korea's. I don't need statistics to actually convince myself of this. All of our business is basically driven by China these days. If you don't believe China's statistics, just ask Intel's or GM's CEO about where their sales growth is fastest these days.

[taiwansemi]

In regard to China's political system, foreign investors agree that China's one-party government is a hell of a lot more effective and efficient in enacting crucial economic reforms than any other Third World republic's usually gridlock-plagued legislature. This is the reason foreign investors pour $50 bil. into China every year, while Third World republics can't seem to get their act together and mostly seem to require IMF bailouts.

[oceanview]

correct. china has us over a barrel. we won't do anything to them on trade, even if they impose tariffs on what little we export to them, we will not retaliate since most of our retail sector is viable only because of chinese made junk. china will continue to back NK as a nuclear power to check US power in Asia.

china has us over a barrel. the only advice I can give: stop buying chinese made products, even though its very difficult, don't give them a dime where possible.

[rintense]

I know that every major manufacturer in my industry is looking to build business relationships with China.

[taiwansemi]

China has merely replaced Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc. as the supplier of the low-cost goods that Americans love. You can characterize this is China's having America over a barrel, but in reality US consumers and America's standard of living have vastly benefitted from access to cheap Asian goods for many decades. Now, because of China, the next generation of Americans can enjoy a higher standard of living too. Every dollar Americans save by purchasing a Chinese-made good is a dollar that can go to some better use, such as your kid's college education or your own retirement. The wage level of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc. are too high these days to continue to supply cheap goods to US consumers, but luckily China's almost unlimited supply of cheap labor guarantees US consumers a high standard of living for decades to come.

[DoctorMichael]

Oh, its just those CIVILIZED Chinese.

[adam_az]

In 1998 or maybe it was 1999 China threatened to nuke Los Angeles if we came to Tawains aid. "At the end of the day America cares more about Los Angels than Taiwan" was what was said in para-phrase

Hollyweird for Taiwan? Sounds like a fair trade to me.

[kabar]

China (including Hong Kong) is America's 4th or 5th-largest export destination now. Together, they buy about $30-35 bil. worth of stuff from the U.S. per year.

Total trade maybe, but certainly not exports. Where are you getting your figures from? The US total exports are around $800 billion.

[matrix2225]

 

Use this link.  It was posted on Free Republic.

 

http://wf4.search.com/click?wf,Russian+AND+Sunburn+AND+missle,5,www.freerepublic.com%2Fforum%2Fa3af5536a2248.htm,,hotbot

 

 

 

[kabar]

In regard to China's political system, foreign investors agree that China's one-party government is a hell of a lot more effective and efficient in enacting crucial economic reforms than any other Third World republic's usually gridlock-plagued legislature. This is the reason foreign investors pour $50 bil. into China every year, while Third World republics can't seem to get their act together and mostly seem to require IMF bailouts.

I don't share your sanguine evaluation of the Communist regime's ability to enact economic reforms even compard to third world regimes. China has indeed benefited from foreign investment, in fact, they have the 4th highest foreign debt in the world. The Economist rates China 31st in Global competitiveness with the US being number 1. In terms of the innovation index, China is not among the top 44; information and communications technology index not rated among the top 44; total expenditures on R&D as a percent of GDP-China is 26th. The US is 5th

It remains to be seen how China's polity will evolve as it becomes more prosperous and more dependent on global trade. Time is on our side as long as we contain their military. There will be more Tian'anmen Squares in the future. Communist governments have not proven to be havens or bastions of capitalism.

[Rocky Mountain High]

Their economy is definately growing but China hides and/or manipulates a wide range of statistics and economic data. Communist dictatorships are usually pretty liberal with the truth.
China has a huge and rapidly expanding middle class, largely as a direct result of the US/China trade imbalance, however they are still not the economic powerhouse they attempt to potray themselves as. The Chinese economy is not quite a house of cards, but more like a house of plywood. Strong, but easily crushed by the elements.

[taiwansemi]

The $30-35 bil. figure comes from a US Dept. of Commerce table that maui_hawaii posted on Freerepublic.com last year.

[taiwansemi]

I think it's fair to say that, for whatever reason, foreign investors tend not to invest in Third World republics but in China instead. This blows a huge hole in the argument that democracy is a prerequisite for a prosperous economy. Third World republics are generally basketcases with dysfunctional legislatures and societies that require one IMF bailout after another. China today is following the one-party path of development that most of E. Asia used before with unquestioned success. After 50 years of democracy, India hasn't become a mirror image of America yet, while one-party Japan, Korea, Singapore, etc. all became First World countries.

Japan, Korea, etc. didn't score high in competitiveness or innovation several decades ago either. For that matter, America didn't score high about 100 years ago either. As manufacturing continues to flow into China, however, it too will gradually improve over time. Microsoft's Steve Ballmer recently said China's low wages aren't its primary threat but the fact it graduates more computer science graduates than any other country. In America itself, the next generation of America's own science college professors will be Chinese and Indian.

I read recently that China actually has very low foreign debt because, among other things, China's currency is non-covertible so foreigners cannot buy Chinese debt denominated in the yuan. In any case, China's got enough money to spare to loan America money to fund its budget deficits.

History is fluid. Americans think America has been #1 since the beginning of time, but 100 years ago, America wasn't even considered one of the great powers of its time. The UK, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Russia, and France were all the leading powers, while America and Japan were the "emerging" economies, just like how China is considered today. Over time in history, countries can play musical chairs. One thing is for sure: no country can maintain its dominance forever, especially one burdened with neverending, empire-killing war debts.

[maui_hawaii]

Don't get me wrong...taiwansemi 99% of the time is a pro-PRC panderer.

The $30-35 billion between Hong Kong and the PRC is about right for our 2002 combined exports.

Keep in mind though that between Taiwan and Japan, they import more than twice that much from the US.

With Korea included they import about 3 times as much as a combined Hong Kong-PRC alliance.

This is also with the rest of Asia in the economic funk. The PRC is booming by their own admission. When the rest of Asia recovers (still from 1998) combined, they will dwarf China's consumption of US exports.

[kabar]

There is a difference between one party dominiation of a democratic government, e.g., Japan, Singapore, and South Korea compared to a totalitarian, Communist dictatorship, i.e., China. By your political standards, Vietnam, Cuba, and North Korea are well on their way to becoming economic power houses. FYI: There is plenty of foreign investment in Third World republics, probably much more than in China in terms of total worldwide foreign investments.

I doubt if there was such a thing as an index measuring competitiveness and innovation 100 years ago, but I think the US would have rated quite highly. The middle and late 19th century was a golden age for American invention. For example, the telephone (1876), the light bulb (1880), the telegraph (1884), the sewing machine (1853), and the airplane (1903)are just a few inventions that changed the world. In regards to the intellectual potential of the Chinese, I remember someone saying that he would take our Chinese (including Taiwan) against the PRC anytime. If we stop giving them technology so their rockets wouldn't explode on takeoff, they wouldn't be so advanced regardless of their domestic computer science graduates. Maybe we should bar them from attending Cal Tech and MIT.

Re foreign debt: The Economist lists it as $149.8 billion, 4th largest in the world. China is paying an annual debt service of $21.7 billion to pay on its foreign debt, 5th largest in the world. The US is not listed in the top 48 in the amount of foreign debt so China's investment in the US must not be all that significant

Forever is a long time. No one has claimed that America will always be dominant, but comparing China to the US and Japan is a bit premature. Ther bottom line is that China has a long way to go to become a devolped country let alone a superpower. They are not ten feet tall anymore than the Soviet Union was. I once heard someone say that the Soviet Union was either the most developed underdeveloped country in the world, or the most underdeveloped developed country in the world. Based on a visit to Beijing a few years ago, I think that applies to the PRC today.

[kabar]

I was taking issue with the statement that "China (including Hong Kong) is America's 4th or 5th-largest export destination now." With $800 billion in total annual US exports, the Chinese $30-35 billion is only about 4.3% of the total exports, which places them much further down the list of export destinations for US goods and services. China is a comparatively small market for our exports. On the other hand, China sends over 20% of its exports to the US, hence the big trade deficit for the US.