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Newsweek Poll: Kerry surges to the head of the pack, beating even Bush. ( Lib RAG Alert)
newsweek via msnbc.msn.com ^ | 01/24/04 | Brian Braiker

Posted on 01/24/2004 1:55:23 PM PST by KQQL

Bush’s own standing has slipped among registered voters. "Because of American leadership and resolve, the world is changing for the better," he declared Tuesday. But more people now say they are dissatisfied (52 percent) than satisfied (43 percent) with the way things are going in the United States, down from a post-9/11 peak last April of 50 percent satisfied. And even thought Bush used the State of the Union to emphasize his controversial tax cuts, Medicare overhaul, opposition to gay marriage and a burgeoning economic rebound, Bush saw his job performance ratings dip to 50 percent approval (versus 44 percent who disapprove)—his most negative ratings to date—suggesting a nation sharply divided over the president and his policies. To be sure, Bush is just as solidly backed by Republicans (85 percent) as he is opposed by Democrats (86 percent).

Overall, 52 percent of those polled by NEWSWEEK say they would not like to see Bush serve a second term, compared to 44 percent who want to see him win again in November.

As a result, Kerry is enjoying a marginal advantage over Bush, a first for the poll. Forty-nine percent of registered voters chose Kerry, compared to 46 percent who re-elected Bush.

In fact, all Democrats are polling better against Bush, perhaps due to increased media attention to their primary horserace: Clark gets 47 percent of voters’ choice compared to 48 percent from Bush; Edwards has 46 percent compared to Bush’s 49; Leiberman wins 45 percent versus Bush’s 49 percent; and Dean fares the worst with 45 percent of their votes to Bush’s 50 percent.

------------------------------------------

For this NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older Jan. 22 and Jan. 23 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points

(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; newsweak; polls
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To: Kuksool
Kerry's wife, Teresa Heinz, still has strong local ties in PA. She could actually deliver PA for Kerry, along with a few neighboring Great Lakes states

No one outside of Pittsburgh knows who she is. Ask any Clevelander and ask who Teresa Heinz is and you will get a blank stare.

51 posted on 01/24/2004 2:38:56 PM PST by Dane
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To: Kevin Curry
I'm sorry... did I neglect to turn down the volume on my speakers before I posted? Umm, not to put too fine a point on it, but what the hell are you talking about? "Shreiking?" "Complaining?". Read the post again, this time without your PO'd-at-the-World Hat on. There is no anger and no complaint in my words. My point, if you would pause to consider it, is that George Bush is a far better alternative than the Wall of Left-Wing Voodoo that opposes him. He controls his own agenda and makes his own decisions - he's no puppet of Karl Rove or anyone else. He just doesn't agree with you or me 100% of the time. As for me, I'll vote for the guy who agrees with me 80% of the time, and not stalk off in a corner somewhere, demanding a perfect score on my personal wish list. That would require a President who would abolish the Departments of Education, Labor, & HHS, among other things, and that ain't gonna happen soon. I just don't believe in making the Perfect the enemy of the Good.
52 posted on 01/24/2004 2:39:19 PM PST by andy58-in-nh
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To: KQQL
we shall see....

I´m shocked, I tell ya, SHOCKED! Two weeks ago, I would have bet 100 bucks for Dubyas re-election, and now?

53 posted on 01/24/2004 2:39:27 PM PST by Michael81Dus
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To: Dane
Please, W. hasn't even started campaigning. It's freaking January.

Yeah, I know, and it's time to start.

Heck I think that even Mondale was polling in front of reagan during the demo primaries in 84.

I still like Bush's chances of winning, but I think we need to stop deluding ourselves with fantasies of a Reaganesque landslide. The Democrats really want to win this election, which is why most of them have decided to dump Howard the Nutcase. This is going to be a fight, and it's time to start fighting.

54 posted on 01/24/2004 2:41:17 PM PST by jpl
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To: andy58-in-nh; Gordian Blade; dagnabbit
So, you'd rather see the Democrats back in power, right?

Gordo and dagnabbit have one track minds. It doesn't matter to them that the demos immigration policies are 100% worse to them than W's.

55 posted on 01/24/2004 2:41:24 PM PST by Dane
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To: KQQL; NYer
Cey Jhn Kerry bump.

Kerry may yet sprout fangs and leathery wings.

56 posted on 01/24/2004 2:41:29 PM PST by Kermit the Frog Does theWatusi
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To: EGPWS
Changed colors? I disagree. If anything libs are even more PO'ed than they were going into Nov/2000. Mods votes haven't changed...and never do. Conservatives with either stay home, waste their vote, or try to give us 4 more years of sanity. And my guess is, that's all we're gonna get. This country is so filled with whack-jobs and idiots that we're certain to see Hillary in the WH in 2008.
57 posted on 01/24/2004 2:41:54 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: ambrose
I usually disparage people who make excuses for bad poll results for Bush, but for once I agree. People will get to know Kerry and tune him out really quickly.
58 posted on 01/24/2004 2:42:08 PM PST by HostileTerritory
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To: Michael81Dus
I´m shocked, I tell ya, SHOCKED! Two weeks ago, I would have bet 100 bucks for Dubyas re-election, and now?

It's January and the demos have been getting all the press. And this is a Newsweek poll. Newsweek had Gore ahead 10 points during most of 2000.

59 posted on 01/24/2004 2:44:10 PM PST by Dane
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To: paul544
I think that Bush will really take a hit over "weapons of mass destruction related program activities." I watch the Daily Show and Jon Stewart had a field day with that line. Most of the time the RATS ridicule Bush it's easy to tune them out, because it just makes them look elitist and hateful, but this was hard not to smile at.

I still think Bush is going put this one away without problems. He just comes across so much better than any RAT could.
60 posted on 01/24/2004 2:46:04 PM PST by HostileTerritory
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To: KQQL
Close........ you think?

Remember The President's re-election campaign hasn't even kicked off...... There is $100+ million in funds to use to sway opinion, take the democrat to task, etc..... Too early to call it close, landslide or a loss..... Come the 1st of Sept. then things will begin to fall into a much truer focus......
61 posted on 01/24/2004 2:46:10 PM PST by deport ( Owen, Kuhl, Brown, Pickering, Pryor, Allen.. [Estrada, they won])
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To: paul544
If Americans keep dying in Iraq, and no WMDs turn up, Bush is done.

I disagree. I hope your statement is wrong with Americans dying, however the lack of WMD in Iraq is not the end of Dubya'.

Dubya's tenur to date does not focus the publics minds on WMD's alone. As much as Chirac want's this to be the case it just isn't so.

62 posted on 01/24/2004 2:47:52 PM PST by EGPWS
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To: deport
Close in popular votes, not in Electoral votes
63 posted on 01/24/2004 2:48:51 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: KQQL
>>>"well you canalways vote for Kerry....lol"

W can immediately protect our borders with troops, and send all law-breaking illegals back rather than screaming at President Kerry on the TV from W's Crawford ranch. lol

But, "Oh no! He's going to ride that dead horse into the ground." Did you notice that I had to be redundant here: law-breaking illegals?

Apparently W wants to award law breakers, and the media wants to call illegal aliens other names, like "undocumented workers" and such.

So people who want to uphold the law have to resort to such redundancy so that those "euphemismos" out there can know who we're really talking about.

Hoppy
64 posted on 01/24/2004 2:49:42 PM PST by Hop A Long Cassidy
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To: Dane
I don´t care about the polls. All what matters are the emotions. If the Democrats "smell sunrise", they will be a real danger for Bush, and even worse, that´ll unite them. When parties have accepted ONE leader, they will support him and stop acting like a bunch of crybabies.

Winning polls doesn´t mean winning the election. My party was leading the whole year in 2002, though we narrowly lost to Schröder. And what happened a month after the election? Polls were up for us again - and still are. I am sick and tired of winning polls. I want to win elections! :-)
65 posted on 01/24/2004 2:50:05 PM PST by Michael81Dus
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To: paul544
Forget the economy. If Americans keep dying in Iraq, and no WMDs turn up, Bush is done.

The war in Iraq has been a tremendous success and by Nov 2004 it will only get better, even if WMD stockpiles are not found. Bush will run on it and win.

66 posted on 01/24/2004 2:52:10 PM PST by rockinonritalin (nilatirnonikcor)
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To: anniegetyourgun
This country is so filled with whack-jobs and idiots that we're certain to see Hillary in the WH in 2008.

If you are correct with your statement, then we have been lost long ago, and Dubya's tenure is just the calm before the storm.

Doom and Gloom is a long forgotten mind set of mine, hence, IMHO Dubya' WILL be the next POTUS.

Where we go from there? Who know's.

67 posted on 01/24/2004 2:54:07 PM PST by EGPWS
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To: deport
Bush 46% Democrat 44%

Bush 47% Kerry 39%

Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 46%
Democrat 44%
Other 4%
Not Sure 7%

http://rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

These results are from a national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely Voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence. Methodology


68 posted on 01/24/2004 2:55:02 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: Gordian Blade
W has hacked off a lot of conservative voters, including me.

That's nice.

69 posted on 01/24/2004 2:55:24 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: Michael81Dus
Unlike Germany, or like it for that matter, the vote for president is really 50 separate elections, not one national election, except they all take place on the same day. Bush is leading in all the states he won in 2000, and because of our constitutionally-mandated census every ten years, in which congressional seats are reapportioned, those same states Bush won in 2000 have even more electoral votes, and those that Gore won have less. If nothing changes, and the popular vote is split just like in 2000, Bush will win more electoral votes than he did in 2000. I think, after 9/11, things have indeed changed, and I don't think Bush will lose, but rather win big.
70 posted on 01/24/2004 2:56:46 PM PST by Alas Babylon!
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To: EGPWS
Yes, I think he is likely to be re-elected. And yes, I think it is the calm before the storm.
71 posted on 01/24/2004 2:57:32 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: Michael81Dus
I don´t care about the polls. All what matters are the emotions. If the Democrats "smell sunrise", they will be a real danger for Bush, and even worse, that´ll unite them. When parties have accepted ONE leader, they will support him and stop acting like a bunch of crybabies.

I understand that but it is January, 10 months till the election.

Also their is always euphoria when a perty picks a cnadidate and then it dissipates. Kerry is an effete liberal and will turn off many.

72 posted on 01/24/2004 2:58:26 PM PST by Dane
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To: dagnabbit
Folks should remember that Gore and Nader got 51 percent last time round and that immigrants and their children joining the voting roles have probably added another one percent to the blue side of the ledger since then. Bush has always faced a tough reelection fight - even before he pissed off his base.

What you describe is a no-win situation. It may even be accurate.

73 posted on 01/24/2004 2:58:32 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: KQQL
Close in popular votes, not in Electoral votes

<a href="http://www.electionprojection.com</a>Wrong again.</a> <p> Sorry to disappoint you.

74 posted on 01/24/2004 2:58:35 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: KQQL
And?....... do you think $100 million+ will not sway some votes and redefine the democrat opponent.... They are getting the bulk of the media coverage for now and a free ride on the slander or misinfo etc. ...... I'm not saying that's not what the polls are showing... My belief is that will turn when the Bush-Cheney campaign begins......
75 posted on 01/24/2004 2:59:03 PM PST by deport ( Owen, Kuhl, Brown, Pickering, Pryor, Allen.. [Estrada, they won])
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To: dagnabbit
even before he pissed off A small portion of his base.
76 posted on 01/24/2004 2:59:11 PM PST by EGPWS
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D'oh!
77 posted on 01/24/2004 2:59:15 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: EGPWS
even before he pissed off a small portion of his Pat Buchanan's base.
78 posted on 01/24/2004 3:00:48 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: KQQL
You are right, he will only compete with W in following Red states NH, NV, AZ, OH , FL, WV and AR.

I agree, but other states that Gore barely won will be in competition for Bush: MN, WI, OR, PA, MI, IA, ME, and maybe even CA, if Arnold strongly helps campaign, and he said he will.

79 posted on 01/24/2004 3:01:19 PM PST by Alas Babylon!
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To: Kevin Curry
"On the advice of people such as Karl Rove, Bush has calculated the odds and determined that he must suck up to seniors and illegal aliens to win."

Your point is well made. The election is President Bush's to lose if he expects people to vote for him no matter what he does he is a member of the wrong party.

If he can get the vote of two illegal aliens to make up for every conservative vote lost then he can not help but win.

My hope is he will end up changing his mind about flooding our country with illegal aliens.

80 posted on 01/24/2004 3:01:28 PM PST by Souled_Out
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To: FreeReign
even before he pissed off his Pat Buchanan's base.
81 posted on 01/24/2004 3:01:49 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: Souled_Out
Souled_Out hasn't created an about page.
82 posted on 01/24/2004 3:02:16 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: Texas_Dawg
He likely never had Buchanan's base to begin with. He has lost part of his own base, and that includes me.
83 posted on 01/24/2004 3:02:20 PM PST by Kevin Curry (Dems' magnificent four: Shrieking Nikita, Frenchie La Lurch , Gen. Jack D. Ripper, and Lionel Putz)
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To: anniegetyourgun
Remember, this is the electorate that sent Bill Clinton to the Whitehouse....twice.

A notorious electorate indeed.

84 posted on 01/24/2004 3:02:27 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: All
KQQL hasn't created an about page.
85 posted on 01/24/2004 3:03:05 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: MississippiMan
GWB has done three things that guarantee he's got my vote.

Said no to Kyoto.

Said no to the International Criminal Court.

Said, "We don't need a permission slip", to the UN.

If I have to choose, I'd sure rather see my tax money go to education and prescriptions than the UN. And you can bet a dem in the WH will never stand up to the UN the way W has.

Oh, and one more thing. He keeps his zipper up.
86 posted on 01/24/2004 3:03:17 PM PST by terilyn
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To: Kevin Curry
Kevin Curry hasn't created an about page.
87 posted on 01/24/2004 3:03:32 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: Alas Babylon!
Actually, we have a similar system as well- people do not vote for the Chancellor. We vote for our parliament which elects the Chancellor. As if the people who vote for the president were members of Congress...

Well, we´ll see wether you´re right. But it sounds as if the campaign will be interesting...
88 posted on 01/24/2004 3:04:03 PM PST by Michael81Dus
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To: Texas_Dawg
?

What's your point?

89 posted on 01/24/2004 3:04:23 PM PST by Kevin Curry (Dems' magnificent four: Shrieking Nikita, Frenchie La Lurch , Gen. Jack D. Ripper, and Lionel Putz)
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To: Kevin Curry
He has lost part of his own base

91% of the GOP currently says they will vote for GWB in November. This is absolutely unheard of. Including for Reagan.

90 posted on 01/24/2004 3:05:00 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: KQQL
Although I don't put much stock into Rasmussen these numbers are probably more accurate.....There are now 2 polls that have Kerry beating Bush and the Fox poll has Kerry within 7pts.....Kerry will be the nominee only because the rats are seeing these polls and think they have a chance against Bush.....this is going to be a tough election and maybe close...
91 posted on 01/24/2004 3:05:03 PM PST by mystery-ak (Almighty God, Embrace with Your invincible armour our loved ones in all branches of the service.)
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To: Texas_Dawg
I'm not a toadie.

I calls 'em like I sees 'em.

92 posted on 01/24/2004 3:05:53 PM PST by Kevin Curry (Dems' magnificent four: Shrieking Nikita, Frenchie La Lurch , Gen. Jack D. Ripper, and Lionel Putz)
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To: mystery-ak
this is going to be a tough election and maybe close...

It will be a rout by GWB, fwiw.

93 posted on 01/24/2004 3:06:13 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: Dane
Politicians have the skill to become wishy-washy when an election is near. They can hide their true intentions pretty good... Chancellor Schröder promised not to raise taxes in 2002 - and two months after the election the parliament passed the law raising the taxes. I wouldn´t count on the "liberal heart" of any of the Demcratic candidates. But you´ve more insights.

Good luck for the campaign!
94 posted on 01/24/2004 3:06:25 PM PST by Michael81Dus
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To: Kevin Curry
He has lost part of his own base, and that includes me.

Music to John Fffin Kerry's ears. Although for the sake of full disclosure that music is coming from the world's smallest violin.

95 posted on 01/24/2004 3:06:45 PM PST by Dane
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To: Kevin Curry
So that means you make statements that are absolutely false according to the most up-to-date research?
96 posted on 01/24/2004 3:06:53 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: KQQL
As a result, Kerry is enjoying a marginal advantage over Bush, a first for the poll. Forty-nine percent of registered voters chose Kerry, compared to 46 percent who re-elected Bush.

Complete crap. I guarantee that 49% of voters could not even pick John Kerry out of a three-man lineup.

97 posted on 01/24/2004 3:07:31 PM PST by Sloth ("I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!" -- Jacobim Mugatu, 'Zoolander')
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To: Dane
Music to John Fffin Kerry's ears.

Of course it is:

Kevin Curry has not created an about page.

98 posted on 01/24/2004 3:07:40 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Al Qaeda.)
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To: Kuksool
Kerry said he didn't need the South to win the White House. He planned on blowing off the South and concentrate his resources on NH, NV, AZ, MI, PA, WI, and MN.


Yeah then we can secede again declare war on the North and exile Kerry and all of the liberal assholes to Canada.
99 posted on 01/24/2004 3:08:04 PM PST by DarthVader (Liberal Democrats = The domestic enemies of the United States)
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To: Texas_Dawg
What false statement did I make?
100 posted on 01/24/2004 3:08:31 PM PST by Kevin Curry (Dems' magnificent four: Shrieking Nikita, Frenchie La Lurch , Gen. Jack D. Ripper, and Lionel Putz)
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