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Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush 49% Kerry 44%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 2.25.04

Posted on 02/25/2004 10:35:21 AM PST by ambrose

Survey of 1,500 Likely Voters February 22-24, 2004

Bush 49% Kerry 44%

Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 49%

Kerry 44%

Other 3%

Not Sure 4%

RasmussenReports.com

Rasmussen Reports Home

February 25, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and and John F. Kerry attracting support from 44% of the nation's likely voters.

Over the past three weeks, Bush's numbers have stayed between 45% and 47% with just a handful of exceptions. Kerry has stayed generally between 44% and 46% of the vote during this period.

A related survey finds that 55% of American voters believe the U.S. should make sure that Iraq becomes a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy. Thirty-eight percent (38%) want troops brought home as soon as possible.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Election Survey is updated daily by noon Eastern.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; poll; polls; rasmussen
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1 posted on 02/25/2004 10:35:21 AM PST by ambrose
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To: ambrose
Must be the gay thing....
2 posted on 02/25/2004 10:36:47 AM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: KQQL
Election 2004

Kerry 50% Edwards 32% Can Edwards climb this steep a hill?

Congress: Dem 42% GOP 39%

Bush Job Approval: 55%

National Political Tracking Data Updated Daily by Noon Eastern
http://rasmussenreports.com/
3 posted on 02/25/2004 10:38:59 AM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: ambrose
I conducted a poll yesterday and it came out Bush 100% Kerry -10%. I randomly called 10 friends and 20 familly members. I asked are you voting for Bush or that Commie Kerry? Then I sang this song before they could answer.


"The Little Old Commie from Massachusetts"

Sung to Jan and Dean’s Little Old Lady from Pasadena


It’s the Little Old Commie from Massachusetts.

The Little Old Commie form Massachusetts.
Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
He’s not worried bout his record cause he has two sets.
Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
He as slip’ry as grease up in DC town,
He will vote the bill up and then he’ll vote it back down.

Chorus:

And everybody’s saying that he offers the most threats.
That’s the Little Old Commie from Massachusetts.
He takes both sides, yes he takes both sides.
He’s the biggest dang liar up in DC Town.
He’s the Little Old Commie from Massachusetts.


It’s the Little Old Commie from Massachusetts.
If you hear him speakin out don’t pay attention.
Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
In a minute or so he’ll just change direction.
Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
The man aint trusted in either House.
Cause he always talks out both sides of his mouth.

Chorus:

And everybody’s saying that he offers the most threats.
That’s the Little Old Commie from Massachusetts.
He takes both sides, yes he takes both sides.
He’s the biggest dang liar up in DC Town.
He’s the Little Old Commie from Massachusetts.

Musical Interlude:

Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
We need to send him home to his heiress wife.
Cause he’s got no business in public life.

Chorus:

And everybody’s saying that he offers the most threats.
That’s the Little Old Commie from Massachusetts.
He takes both sides, yes he takes both sides.
He’s the biggest dang liar up in DC Town.
He’s the Little Old Commie from Massachusetts.

Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go
Go Kerry, Go Kerry, Go Kerry Go

Fade

Conspiracy Guy 2/24/04

This poll has no margin for error and is totally correct and scientific.

CG
4 posted on 02/25/2004 10:40:02 AM PST by Conspiracy Guy (Conspiracy Guy's comments may not reflect his own opinions.)
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To: KQQL
look for it to be +15 late October. Dumbs have a serious problem in a few months.
5 posted on 02/25/2004 10:40:47 AM PST by genghis
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To: KQQL
No (or, not yet), it isn't the "gay thing:" It's the "weekend thing," which I predicted on yesterday's poll, where suddenly Kerry was close. I said there that today's poll would show a 4-5 points swing, and sure 'nuf . . . .
6 posted on 02/25/2004 10:41:07 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: ambrose
I hope Rasmussen has improved his accuracy since 2000. Interesting how the gap narrows over the weekend and widens during the week. Not sure if current numbers reflect any reaction to Bush's speech the other night.
7 posted on 02/25/2004 10:41:07 AM PST by zook
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To: ambrose
JMHO... The fact that polls show Bush ahead of Kerry at all at this point -- when W has done next to nothing in the campaign realm -- should scare the urine out of the D strategists. (Though it undoubtedly thrills one HRC....)
8 posted on 02/25/2004 10:41:24 AM PST by r9etb
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To: KQQL
Nah. Polling is Su,M,T on a 3-day rolling average. It will go up tomorrow and start going down on Sunday. Democrats do better on weekend polls.
9 posted on 02/25/2004 10:41:39 AM PST by AmishDude
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To: zook
No, it isn't just Ras: Dems poll better in any poll over the weekend. At least Ras is consistent, and I share your concern for his accuracy after 2000, but he consistenly has had Bush with about a 5% lead . . . for whatever that's worth in Feb!
10 posted on 02/25/2004 10:42:53 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: zook
Interesting how the gap narrows over the weekend and widens during the week.

It's a function of who's home, and answering pollsters.

11 posted on 02/25/2004 10:43:19 AM PST by r9etb
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To: LS
Dems poll better in any poll over the weekend.

Being a bit of a novice poll watcher, what are the reasons for this?

12 posted on 02/25/2004 10:44:07 AM PST by johniegrad
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To: LS; KQQL
One thing seems for certain. Bush wants to face Kerry, not Edwards. Bush's actions of recent days have had the effect of freezing out Edwards. Also, knowing the Rat mentality, they are even more likely to rally to Kerry now that Bush delivered some barbs in Kerry's direction.
13 posted on 02/25/2004 10:44:18 AM PST by ambrose ("John Kerry has blood of American soldiers on his hands" - Lt. Col. Oliver North)
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To: Conspiracy Guy
"The Little Old Commie from Massachusetts"

Or perhaps "The Horse-Faced Commie from Massachussetts" - or maybe just the theme song from Mr. Ed.

14 posted on 02/25/2004 10:44:46 AM PST by dirtboy (Howard, we hardly knew ye. Not that we're complaining, mind you...)
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To: ambrose
You can tell when Bush/Kerry Rasmussen poll moves away from the weekend, Bush maintains the lead.
15 posted on 02/25/2004 10:45:08 AM PST by demlosers (More two-face from horse face.)
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To: johniegrad
Nobody seems to know. I even read a book called "Mobocracy" about polling, and while they acknowledge it exists, no one can pin it down. One would think that Republicans being "family" people, would be more likely to be HOME over the weekend, but apparently not.
16 posted on 02/25/2004 10:45:58 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: dirtboy
Hey now. Mr Ed had dignity and class. Do not insult horses.

CG
17 posted on 02/25/2004 10:46:06 AM PST by Conspiracy Guy (Conspiracy Guy's comments may not reflect his own opinions.)
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To: LS; zook
Frankly, I am tired of all the razzing of Rasmussen over his 2000 results. It is old. He blew the popular vote, but did hit the state results pretty much and did okay in 2002.

I don't see anyone bashing other bigger name pollsters over their own miserable failures.
18 posted on 02/25/2004 10:47:02 AM PST by ambrose ("John Kerry has blood of American soldiers on his hands" - Lt. Col. Oliver North)
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To: ambrose
I think Bush will toast either of these idiots, especially now. People will suddenly start to ask, "If 'gay marriage' is a state issues---as Kerry says it should be---then why isn't abortion a state issue? Or slavery?"

I think Kerry is in for a massive meltdown.

19 posted on 02/25/2004 10:47:47 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: zook
I hope Rasmussen has improved his accuracy since 2000.

Once again, there was nothing wrong with Rasmussen's accuracy in 2000.

20 posted on 02/25/2004 10:49:41 AM PST by Coop ("Hero" is the last four-letter word I'd use to describe John Kerry.)
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To: ambrose
Guess you haven't been around here very long: many of us bashed the "established" pollsters BADLY from 1996-2000, when ONLY Zobgy (well, maybe Battleground) doing well.

A prof from Purdue even posted an extensive analysis of all the 1996 polling, where he found that all of them were off to the LEFT, which totally defied the odds unless there was a bias involved.

On Ras, I will give him credibility on his national poll when he establishes it. Fool me once . . . .

21 posted on 02/25/2004 10:52:53 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: ambrose
Did we have daily tracking this early in 2000?
22 posted on 02/25/2004 10:55:06 AM PST by Timesink (Smacky is power.)
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To: demlosers
>You can tell when Bush/Kerry Rasmussen poll moves away from the weekend, Bush maintains the lead.

Thankfully, the election is on a Tuesday. ;)
23 posted on 02/25/2004 10:56:31 AM PST by Paul_B
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To: LS
The day before the 2000 election the Rasmussen (POA) poll had Bush up 48-41%. Battleground had Bush up 46-37%.
24 posted on 02/25/2004 10:57:37 AM PST by Coop ("Hero" is the last four-letter word I'd use to describe John Kerry.)
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To: LS
I've been around, and we have hit established pollsters plenty. Just not every single time a new poll thread is posted.

I was also highly suspicisious of Rasmussen until he caught Edward's sudden surge - right before his strong second place showing in WI. No other pollster caught this.

Anyway, a tracking poll is most interesting for its trends since the same polling methods (whether flawed or valid) are used night after night. I
25 posted on 02/25/2004 11:00:06 AM PST by ambrose ("John Kerry has blood of American soldiers on his hands" - Lt. Col. Oliver North)
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To: Timesink
I don't think so. Daily tracking poll in Feb. is a bit nuts, don't ya think?
26 posted on 02/25/2004 11:00:45 AM PST by ambrose ("John Kerry has blood of American soldiers on his hands" - Lt. Col. Oliver North)
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To: LS
It is very simple. Republicans or conservatives work during the week,and on the weekend,they are enjoying activities with their kids,playing golf,grocery shopping,improving their property by maintaining it. Dem voters are panhandling during the week or cashing their taxpayer funded checks,or hanging out in pool halls or bars. On the weekend dems answer the phone,pubbies do not as a general rule because they work hard all week so they can relax and not be bothered. Pubbies are notorious for screening their phone calls all the time. Dems do not screen their calls,it may be Ed Mcmahon calling with bundles of money LOL.
27 posted on 02/25/2004 11:03:11 AM PST by samantha (Don't panic, the adults are in charge)
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To: LS
While many Republicans and Conservatives spend their weekends attending Church and Church related activities, The DU'ers are home getting stoned, drunk and engaging in gay sex and answering the telephone to participtate in the latest polls(...the DU'ers especially love it when CNN pollsters call).
28 posted on 02/25/2004 11:05:59 AM PST by A_Niceguy_in_CA
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To: ambrose
People often overlook two things: 1) Taking the word of just one pollster as Gospel - no matter who the pollster - is just not very smart. 2) National tracking polls in a Presidential race are interesting, and give a good indication of the national voting totals, but have next-to-nothing to do with the electoral college.

A variety of polls (Zogby, POA, WSJ, etc.) showed a very close national race in 2000. That's what we got. National totals: Al Gore - 48.4%: George Bush - 47.9%.

29 posted on 02/25/2004 11:13:22 AM PST by Coop ("Hero" is the last four-letter word I'd use to describe John Kerry.)
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To: Coop
The day before the 2000 election the Rasmussen (POA) poll had Bush up 48-41%. Battleground had Bush up 46-37%.

As I recall, the 2000 presidential election had about 10% undecided voters in these polls; it appears the majority of them voted for Gore. And the DUI/DWI Bush hit piece 8 days before the election help push those mushy voters to Gore.

30 posted on 02/25/2004 11:16:18 AM PST by demlosers (More two-face from horse face.)
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To: LS
Bush had to move in this direction due to Mayors who ignore state law. Also due to the full faith and credit for states in the constitution it was just a matter of time until this became a federal issue for somoene married in MA and moving to Ohio.

For most I am hoping they will look at national security. Marriage will always be here to debate, deficits will come and go but I want someone to make me and my family safe here in NYC.
31 posted on 02/25/2004 11:17:21 AM PST by nycgambit
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To: demlosers
IIRC, the undecideds broke about 3:1 for Gore, virtually unheard of for a pseudo-incumbent. Compliments of the DWI story.
32 posted on 02/25/2004 11:31:19 AM PST by Coop ("Hero" is the last four-letter word I'd use to describe John Kerry.)
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To: ambrose
These polls mean jack right now. Why is everyone getting all worked up about them?
33 posted on 02/25/2004 11:32:20 AM PST by petercooper (America - where your problems aren't your fault, they're someone else's.)
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To: ambrose
Bush is on the a run.
34 posted on 02/25/2004 11:32:51 AM PST by Mike Darancette (Bush Bot by choice)
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To: Coop
One thing to watch out for is pollsters who play games all throughout the race, then have their final poll be accurate. Zogby is one of them.

The LA Times poll had Schwarzenegger consistently trailing Bustamante throughout the recall race - until their final poll before the election. One of their polls had Bustamante with 35% and Schwarzenegger with 22%
35 posted on 02/25/2004 11:33:02 AM PST by ambrose ("John Kerry has blood of American soldiers on his hands" - Lt. Col. Oliver North)
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To: nycgambit
A friend of mine said in NYC, if you're a Republican primary voter, you won't get any help or directions afterwards. If you vote Dem, they're helpful.

It seems INSANELY tilted like a total machine up there.
36 posted on 02/25/2004 11:36:30 AM PST by Monty22
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To: nycgambit
Unfortnately, according to all polls, national security/terrorism is at the bottom of the issues list.....to me, this is the only issue.
37 posted on 02/25/2004 11:40:18 AM PST by mystery-ak (*The cause of freedom is in good hands*....you betcha, Mr. President!)
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To: ambrose
" One thing seems for certain. Bush wants to face Kerry, not Edwards. "

Maybe I am reading too much into things, but, I think Kerry was the White House dream candidate all along. Karl Rove shows up at a 4th of July parade,laughingly telling bystanders to please, please nominate Howard Dean. The White House and Republicans treat Dean like he can't win, 2004 will be a blow out, yada, yada, that becomes part of the public persona, the Dems panic and throw Dean overboard. Don Clinteone reacted predictably and put Kerry's horse head in Dean's bed.
For all his faults, Dean was young and energetic and could have been portrayed as a calm, caring physician by the Dems. I never thought Dean was going to be the cake walk that the Republican pundits did .
His scream was way overblown and misrepresented by the MSM in their panic. He didn't have the bloody history that Kerry does.
We have just scratched the surface on Kerry's background and there are mountains of questions about his personal background-from his behavior during the war and afterwards, all his votes and flip flops, his love life and his medical history , including his wife hinting that he has had or needed psychiatric care for PTSD,
his plastic surgeries,his cosmetic procedures, his prostate cancer and his present state of health, including theories about Marfan's Syndrome. Kerry does not look strong nor fit nor that he has the stamina to go the distance in a long presidential campaign.
When he is being interviewed on tv, Kerry is obviously filmed using the Barbara Walters fuzzy lens to soften him and make him look healthier and younger.
Forgetting policy, Dean looked like someone you could have a beer with and watch a football game. And that's a quality that President Bush also has-he can be comfortable around everyone. Kerry looks like someone who would give you his fish eye, little people glance and then order you to bring the car around.
But above all,Kerry should have a Hammer and Sickle on the tail of his Gulf Stream V, instead of the Heinz 57 logo.
38 posted on 02/25/2004 11:43:35 AM PST by Wild Irish Rogue
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To: ambrose; LS; johniegrad; zook
You might find this study I did interesting. It was a case study using the CA recall polls. I know some of the people who responded to that thread when it first was posted were negative, but the truth is that the media use polls both as predictors and as a means to try to manipulate public opinion.

Link to poll study thread.

39 posted on 02/25/2004 11:49:54 AM PST by Wolfstar
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To: mystery-ak
I agree with you about national security/terrorism, and I would also caution against taking anything polls say at face value. Media polls are used to manipulate — not to report public opinion, but to shape it. Check out my post #39 on this thread.
40 posted on 02/25/2004 11:53:51 AM PST by Wolfstar
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To: Coop
I said Ras was way off. Battleground and everyone else was pretty much off too, although Battleground has been extremely reliable. For now, I'd trust Battleground over Ras. Unfortunately, I'd trust Zogby over anyone.
41 posted on 02/25/2004 12:03:48 PM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: ambrose
Getting Edwards right in one poll is hardly a reason for celebrating Ras. However, I'm open. I hope he's right, because he consistently has Bush/GOP higher than most other pollsters.
42 posted on 02/25/2004 12:04:56 PM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: ambrose
my guess is GWB will never be behind Kerry again.
43 posted on 02/25/2004 12:05:53 PM PST by The Wizard (democrats are enemies of America)
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To: LS
Unfortunately, I'd trust Zogby over anyone.

I'm really surprised you're still saying that, given how Zogby was fairly humiliated during the 2002 elections.

44 posted on 02/25/2004 12:07:08 PM PST by Coop ("Hero" is the last four-letter word I'd use to describe John Kerry)
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To: ambrose
stop publishing these idiotic polls, figure this out.

1.If Bush's poll show he is going to landslide do you think you will sit through all the commercials on the nightly news?

2.Bush's job approval rating is still in the high 50's and these polls show below 50% why?

3. Whose interest would it be in to fudge the numbers of polling data? a) the news media with 10's of millions of advertizing dollars at stake b) the democraps who are also in the news media c) the republicans?
45 posted on 02/25/2004 12:14:08 PM PST by Walkingfeather
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To: Walkingfeather; ambrose
Unless ambrose works for Rasmussen, I think you're placing publication blame in the wrong place.
46 posted on 02/25/2004 12:30:54 PM PST by Coop ("Hero" is the last four-letter word I'd use to describe John Kerry)
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To: LS
Yesterday, Linda Vester on FNC's Dayside was interviewing someone from the Kerry campaign about why Kerry thought he had Bush *on the run*. The Kerry guy cited *the polls* and the fact that GWB had finally entered the campaign as proof Kerry was ahead and W on the defensive. Linda said she hated to tell the campaign this, but FNC had polling data that showed GWB at 49% to Kerry's 44%. Campaign guy just segued to his other TPs that he wished had been asked.

All the rest of yesterday, at least when I was able to pay attention, the graphic they put up was the W-43%; Kerry-42% and Nader 4%.

I hope this starts to show in the rest of the polls. Today, it seems that polls drive opinion, instead of the other way around.

Kerry's "I am an optimistic sorta guy" speech last night was totally devoid of real enthusiasm and Kerry looked like he had just learned his dog had died a hideous death. OTOH, the Bush-Cheney campaign surrogates seem calm and relaxed.

I would love to see the internal polls.

I think the change, if it turns out to be solid and repeted in other polls, is due to Kerry becoming more quantified in terms of the issues. I think taxation,foreign policy and the total pandering the Dems are doing in relation to jobs are showing the electorate just what Kerry has planned for them.
47 posted on 02/25/2004 12:33:26 PM PST by reformedliberal
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To: reformedliberal
The first President Bush launched his re-election campaign on February 12, 1992, so the present President Bush is not starting abnormally early.

I remember the date in 1992 because it was Charles Darwin's birthday, and I wondered if that might cost him some votes from the religious Right.

48 posted on 02/25/2004 12:42:47 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: ambrose
Remember back to 16 years ago today...February 25, 1988.

After a slow start, a liberal Democrat from Massachusetts began steamrollering towards the Democratic nomination. His name was Michael Dukakis and he was going to inflict the "Massachusetts Miracle" upon the nation at large. He was going to end the Reagan/Bush era.

The polls were showing it too. Mike Dukakis enjoyed double-digit leads over George H.W. Bush right through the middle of summer. Surely George Bush didn't have a chance against this guy. Or so everybody thought.

I bring those memories back again to show just how meaningless polls are at this stage. Dukakis led the polls during a good part of the 1988 campaign but ended up losing in a blowout. John Kerry could well go down in defeat by Walter Mondale or George McGovern proportions by the time the election rolls around, despite how he is polling today.

16 years ago today, most Americans did not yet know just how bad Mike Dukakis was. It wasn't until after the GOP convention that people started finding out. Many outside Massachusetts still don't realize how bad he would have been for the country had he been elected.

Consider that Mike Dukakis was the very last Democrat governor that Massachusetts has had. Since 1990, Massachusetts has elected nothing but Republican governors because the last thing we want around here is "another Dukakis." Perhaps the candidacy of John Kerry will result in the fact that he will be the last Democrat senator Massachusetts will see for a while. Let's hope so.

49 posted on 02/25/2004 12:50:26 PM PST by SamAdams76 (I do not like the new "Starbucks-style" coffee lids at Dunkin' Donuts)
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To: Coop
Whatever. Until he is shown wrong in national elections, I think he's pretty reliable. Far better (so far) than Ras.
50 posted on 02/25/2004 12:53:00 PM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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