Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush 49% Kerry 44%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 2.25.04

[Conspiracy Guy]

He is an easy target. Know why his mouth is so large? To accommodate his feet.

[Verginius Rufus]

Did a Google search--Spot is described as an English springer spaniel, and Millie as a springer spaniel. I assume she was an English springer spaniel, since her book was in English.

[DrDeb]

Standard Disclaimer One:
As predicters of voter behavior in November, polls in February are meaningless.

Standard Disclaimer Two:
We will NEVER know which pollsters correctly called the 2000 election because the election results were skewed by the media's early call of Florida for Gore [This call came BEFORE polls closed in Florida and in the SouthWest/West, suppressing Republican turn out in ALL of the aforementioned areas. Most pundits now agree that this early call cost President Bush the popular vote and several electoral votes!]

NOTE: While we will NEVER know who made the best call in the 2000 election, we do know that Zogby -- the 'superstar' of the 2000 election -- blew most of his predictions for the 2002 elections (particularly the gubernatorial race in Florida)!


TWO POINTS:
1.) Two-day 'snap shot' polls are UNRELIABLE measures of public opinion [MOST Gallup polls, ALL FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics polls, ALL Newsweek polls, ALL CBSNews polls, SOME ABCNews/WashingtonPost polls (including the most recent/heavily publicized poll) AND MOST Quinnipiac polls are two-day quickies!].

Conversely, polls conducted over multiple days -- with accurate 'weighting' procedures -- are infinitely more VALID [ALL Rasmussen polls, ALL Annenberg polls, MOST Zogby polls, and SOME Ipsos-Reid polls are conducted over multiple days with LARGER than average samples -- typically, larger samples yield lower margins of error!]

2.) Rasmussen's recent polling results closely track results gleaned by the following pollsters:

ZOGBY
2/12-15/04
Likely Voters/MOE +/- 2.8

GWB Approval Ratings:
Red States -- 55% Excellent/Good
(translates to an approval rating proximating 60%)
Blue States-- 47% Excellent/Good

Head-to-Head Match-up:
Red States -- GWB 51% Kerry 39% (+12)
Blue States -- GWB 46% Kerry 47% (-1)
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=808


ANNENBERG
2/11-19/04
Adults/MOE +/- 2

GWB Approval Rating
55% approve 42% disapprove (+13)

over 60% believe the President is a strong leader

44% disapprove of Kerry's antiwar activities
40% approve

62% believe that President Bush fulfilled his National Guard responsibilities
38% do not

17% who disapprove of Kerry's antiwar activities also indicate that this disapproval will matter a 'great deal' when they vote in November

12% who said President Bush shirked his NG responsibilities also said this would matter a 'great deal' when they vote in November
http://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/naes/2004_03_guard-and-vietnam_02-20_pr.pdf

[Godfollow]

After only announcing the gloves are coming off... can't wait till there's some actual campaign commercials and the like...

[Conspiracy Guy]

Polls are worthless and easy to buy as well.

CG

[Wolfstar]

What breed was Millie (mother of the recently deceased Bush dog Spot)?

English Springer Spaniel — she was bred to a male Springer, and the litter Spotty came from was purebred. However, they were not the type seen at American dog shows, but appeared to be more the classical field dog type. If I am not mistaken, Spotty's daddy was a male Springer owned by William S. Farish, the current U.S. Ambassador to Great Britain. Among other holdings, Farish owns Lands End Farm in Paris, Ky., a famous and very successful thoroughbred racehorse breeding establishment.

[timydnuc]

Remember fellow freepers, if Kerry gets the nomination and he tanks to, say 30, in the polls the RATS will pull a Torchelli and replace old horse face. Can anybody guess who they would go with? Anybody,.. anybody....Spicole?

[Wolfstar]

Just a note of clarification, in case you're interested: The American Kennel Club lists the breed as English springer spaniel. Many people refer to it just as springer or springer spaniel for short.

[LS]

Several people on this thread have offered ideas, but they don't seem reasonable to me---that Republicans, because they are "family men" and "family women" would be AWAY from home more on weekends? Possibly if they are with children at soccer, hockey, etc. But, why wouldn't the single liberals be "out on the prowl," at yoga or fitness classes, sit-ins, or singles bars in the evenings?

Indeed, it would seem to me that WEEKDAY polls would be disproportionately skewed toward Republicans, as even the hard-working people want to get home by 6:30 to see the family, while the Dems, who are more single and female, should be working (voluntarily) longer hours or out on the singles scene. I don't know. Like I said, I spent some time researching polls for my last book, and even the author of "Mobocracy," a book about polls, doesn't venture a guess.

I'd like Zogby's reaction to this.

[Coop]

Pretty funny. You're bashing me for sticking with Zogby, another guy is bashing Battleground, and everyone loves Rasmussen---who was off by more than anyone in 2000. Go figure.

I'm bashing you? What's pretty funny is that some are bashing Rasmussen - unfairly in my view - and then you proceed to list Battleground and Zogby as more reliable. When presented with numbers refuting your rhetoric, you resort to the above absurdity.

Rasmussen was not off by more than anyone in 2000. I suggest you become more familiar with polling resources.

[mware]

Wow, a big change in the numbers and GW is just getting started.

[zook]

Ok, what were Rasmussen's final national numbers in 2000? My memory may be faulty, but I thought he had Bush up by at least 5%.

[Coop]

7 points, actually. The day before the 2000 election the Rasmussen (POA) poll had Bush up 48-41%. Battleground had Bush up 46-37%.

[LS]

I'll stick with Zog over Ras until Ras proves that he is accurate.

[Coop]

I'm still waiting for you to address the numbers provided...

[LS]

I can't address them. But I sure can't guarantee you're "providing" the appropriate numbers, and I don't have time to double check your work. As I say, I'm with Zogs. You're free to latch onto whichever numbers you think accurate. Bye.

[Coop]

Yes, try to insinuate my numbers are wrong, and that you're too busy to check. Lord knows it would be nearly impossible to dreg up such obscure numbers here on FR or somewhere on the Web.

Anything to deflect from your glaring lack of knowledge on this topic. Farewell.

[LS]

Check back in November.