I'll wait for the full text, but here's the way I see it right now.
Zarqawi and Sadr both have ties back to Iran and it may well be that they've worked out some kind of a 50/50 deal with the mad mullahs to stir up trouble in Iraq for the US. Khamenei knows that he's next in line to take over southern Iraq if the US fails and Zarqawi would be quite happy ruling over some mini-Taliban in the Sunni Triangle. It also fits with other elements we've seen to date with regard to the Iranian grand strategy in terms of Iraq.
To: Angelus Errare; Dog
It's no secret that Zarqawi would like to provoke a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites. Whatever it takes to make the Americans turn tail.
If he's actually in Iraq, he's a fool. We'll catch him because he's communicating. I think it's far more likely that he's in Syria. Possibly he's in Jordan, but that's less safe for him.
Regardless, you can't be a regional commander without leaving a lot of tracks. I think he'll either be caught this year or cut off from directing the campaign because he's on the run.
posted on 04/05/2004 6:21:49 PM PDT
by Dog Gone
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