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FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll: Kerry 44, Bush 43
PollingReport.com ^ | 4.8.04

Posted on 04/08/2004 12:05:33 PM PDT by ambrose

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. April 6-7, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Other (vol.)/
Not Sure
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
  % % % %
4/6-7/04 43 44 12 1
3/23-24/04 44 44 10 2
3/3-4/04 44 44 11 1
2/18-19/04 45 45 9 1
2/4-5/04 47 43 9 1
1/21-22/04 49 42 8 1
1/7-8/04 54 32 12 2
7/03 54 35 8 3
5/03 58 29 11 2
12/02 57 29 12 2

 


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; polls
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1 posted on 04/08/2004 12:05:33 PM PDT by ambrose
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To: KQQL
..
2 posted on 04/08/2004 12:06:00 PM PDT by ambrose ("I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it" - John F. al-Query)
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To: ambrose
Its a dead heat. The President should be eight to ten points behind so he's in good shape. As we've seen in the 9-11 Commission hearings, the Democrats think they will get political mileage out of politicizing the country's national security. In fact, it makes them look childish and vindictive. It will backfire on them and their standard-bearer, John F. Seinfeld, big time even though its not showing up in the polls yet. Keep the faith!
3 posted on 04/08/2004 12:09:08 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: ambrose
Every last news organization out there that are running polls knows that they are meaningless this far out, but they just can't help themselves - they HAVE to have their Daily Horse Race. So they squander all kinds of $$ to get meaningless polls. Here we have one with 900 "registered voters" nationwide. Whoop de doo.

Michael

4 posted on 04/08/2004 12:09:14 PM PDT by Wright is right! (It's amazing how fun times when you're having flies.)
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To: ambrose
respondents pushed for decision

I wonder which ones they pushed?
I wonder which way they pushed 'em?
I wonder what they pushed 'em with?

Inquiring minds want to know...

5 posted on 04/08/2004 12:11:55 PM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: goldstategop
Fox Poll is remarkably static. Gallup and Rasmussen, on the other hand, have seen some pretty wild fluctuations.
6 posted on 04/08/2004 12:11:57 PM PDT by ambrose ("I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it" - John F. al-Query)
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To: goldstategop
Let's see. 900 registered voters nationwide in the 50 states. Using my higher math skills, that tells me that this survey is based up the opinions of 18 people per state.

They're coming to take me away, ho ho ha ha hee hee ho ho, to the funny farm where life is breautiful all th' time and they're coming to take me a waaaaayyyyyyyyy!

Michael

7 posted on 04/08/2004 12:12:07 PM PDT by Wright is right! (It's amazing how fun times when you're having flies.)
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To: All


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8 posted on 04/08/2004 12:12:14 PM PDT by Support Free Republic (If Woody had gone straight to the police, this would never have happened!)
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To: ambrose
Hey, u beat me to the punch on this ... here's the link to the full story

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,116583,00.html

This essentially seems to mean that the race hasn't changed that much since the Iraq news.
9 posted on 04/08/2004 12:12:40 PM PDT by No Dems 2004
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To: ambrose
Any individual poll this far are dosn't mean too much. But, the trend in this series of polls is very disturbing. The question is - what will change the trend?
10 posted on 04/08/2004 12:13:17 PM PDT by familyofman
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To: goldstategop
The President should be eight to ten points behind...

No offense, but that's crazy. This is not terrible news but it is a huge stretch to say "8 to 10 points behind" in April is normal if you want to win reelection. I know you've seen the Gallup numbers from past reelection campaigns too.
11 posted on 04/08/2004 12:14:55 PM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: ambrose
OMG ..BUSH LOST A POINT..lol
12 posted on 04/08/2004 12:14:57 PM PDT by KQQL (@)
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To: Torie; Kuksool

13 posted on 04/08/2004 12:15:59 PM PDT by KQQL (@)
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To: No Dems 2004
It appears that Fox has dropped Nader as a polling option..
14 posted on 04/08/2004 12:18:53 PM PDT by ambrose ("I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it" - John F. al-Query)
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To: ambrose
It is jaw dropping, unbelievable to me that ANYONE would vote for John F'ing Kerry. I guess it just goes to show that there are still mysteries in the universe...
15 posted on 04/08/2004 12:18:55 PM PDT by Libertina (FRee Republic - What have you done for her lately? CONTRIBUTE 5 or 10!)
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To: ambrose

The truth is not out yet.

BUSH & CHENEY IN 2004
16 posted on 04/08/2004 12:19:33 PM PDT by Smartass
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To: ambrose
President Bush’s overall job performance rating is up a couple ticks from late March as 49 percent today approve of the job he’s doing as president and 44 percent disapprove. Bush receives his highest approval ratings from Republicans (92 percent), conservatives (70 percent), higher income groups (57 percent) and whites (54 percent).
17 posted on 04/08/2004 12:19:51 PM PDT by KQQL (@)
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To: KQQL
Election 2004


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
Kerry 46% Bush 43%

(updated Thursday)
Congress: Dem 42% GOP 36%
Bush Job Approval: 49%
Lowest Rating in 2004



18 posted on 04/08/2004 12:27:09 PM PDT by KQQL (@)
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To: Izzy Dunne
"Pushed" has two meanings in the polling community, one of them ordinary and the other one unprofessional. The normal one applies here. Pushed for this poll means that whenever a poll respondent answered, "I don't know," he/she would be "pushed" with the additional question, "Which way are you leaning?"

Then, the "leaners" are added to the total for whichever candidate they named, and the "don't know" category shrinks accordingly. This is a normal technique, but should be revealed when used, so these poll results can be properly compared to other polls which did the same thing. It was revealed here.

The prejudicial use of "pushing" means shaping the poll to create the desired result. A question like this might be asked: "Would you still support Senator Snort if you knew that he frequently dressed in women's clothing?" No poll that uses push questions like this is legitimate. Unethical pollsters who use such questions conceal this, if they can get away with it.

Hope that information is helpful.

Congressman Billybob

Click here, then click the blue CFR button, to join the anti-CFR effort (or visit the "Hugh & Series, Critical & Pulled by JimRob" thread). Please do it now.

19 posted on 04/08/2004 12:34:45 PM PDT by Congressman Billybob (www.ArmorforCongress.com Visit. Join. Help. Please.)
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To: familyofman; All
"Any individual poll this far are dosn't mean too much. But, the trend in this series of polls is very disturbing. The question is - what will change the trend?"


Actually, the "trends" reflected in the Zogby poll (4/1-4/04) and today's FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics poll are QUITE ENCOURAGING -- both polls show NO CHANGE in the President's standing despite unparalleled attacks from the left in the form of Clarke's historical revisionism and Kennedy et al's 'Vietnamization' of Iraq -- we couldn't ask for anything more at this point!!!!

[BTW: The FoxNews poll indicates that 92% of Republicans -- statistical unanimity -- continue to support the President. That's all we need at this point. The 5-7% of the voting public who are genuinely 'undecided' will not make-up their minds until October!]
20 posted on 04/08/2004 12:37:28 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: ambrose
It was like that in 2000, too, always near dead even. And that is how it wound up. It was deadly accurate. People give Zogby credit, but this poll was just as accurate in 2000.
21 posted on 04/08/2004 12:37:49 PM PDT by KellyAdmirer
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To: ambrose
OK, here's my theory --

The national polls are showing consistent inconsistency. In fact, the daily tracking polls are showing no real trend, since the relative support for Kerry and Bush shift back and forth given the events in the latest news cycle.

National surveys may not be a good indication of how the presidential race is going. As we know, presidents are not elected by popular vote, but by 51 separate races, and the campaign which can cobble together a combination of states that will garner it a majority of electoral votes will be the victor. Hence, at this point in the campaign, it may be more instructive to look at individual state polls to gauge how the campaign is going.

In most of the nation, the campaign has yet to begin. But in certain key swing states, the campaign has begun in earnest. And look at the results: In the most recent Keystone poll in Pennsylvania, Bush leads Kerry by 6%; in the most recent Columbus Dispatch poll (4/4) of Ohio, Bush is ahead of Kerry by 2%, reversing a 2% Kerry lead three weeks ago; and in Florida, "ground zero" in the 2000 election vote count, Bush now leads Kerry by 8% (Tampa Tribune, 4/1).

In short, in the states that matter -- the swing or "battleground" states, the states where the election will be decided, the states where the election campaign is in full swing -- Pres. Bush is starting to seperate himself and pull away from his Democrat challenger.

22 posted on 04/08/2004 12:40:47 PM PDT by My2Cents ("Well...there you go again.")
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To: Congressman Billybob
"Would you still support Senator Snort if you knew that he frequently dressed in women's clothing?" No poll that uses push questions like this is legitimate. Unethical pollsters who use such questions conceal this, if they can get away with it.

A variation of this would be to simply ask respondents various questions about unemployment, deaths in Iraq, etc., and THEN follow those questions up with the horse race question/

23 posted on 04/08/2004 12:41:58 PM PDT by ambrose ("I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it" - John F. al-Query)
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To: familyofman
"Any individual poll this far are dosn't mean too much. But, the trend in this series of polls is very disturbing. The question is - what will change the trend?"


Actually, the "trends" reflected in the Zogby poll (4/1-4/04) and today's FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics poll are QUITE ENCOURAGING -- both polls show NO CHANGE in the President's standing despite unparalleled attacks from the left in the form of Clarke's historical revisionism and Kennedy et al's 'Vietnamization' of Iraq -- we couldn't ask for anything more at this juncture!!!!

[BTW: The FoxNews poll indicates that 92% of Republicans -- statistical unanimity -- continue to support the President. That's all we need at this point. The 5-7% of the voting public who are genuinely 'undecided' will not make-up their minds until October!]
24 posted on 04/08/2004 12:42:27 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: All
I apologize for the double post -- my office computer is moving at a snail's pace today ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!
25 posted on 04/08/2004 12:43:43 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: DrDeb
"...both polls show NO CHANGE in the President's standing despite unparalleled attacks from the left..."

I was referring to the longer run trend 12/02 - 4/6 which shows Bush going from 57% to 43%. That is the trend that caught my attention. Nothing Clarke has done/said could move the numbers that much - especially since the trend was in place long before he opened his yap. It's also worth noting that Kerry has gone from 29% to 44% over the same time.
26 posted on 04/08/2004 12:45:07 PM PDT by familyofman
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To: ambrose
Memo to self: PEW polls have become garbage.
27 posted on 04/08/2004 12:51:14 PM PDT by LdSentinal
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To: familyofman
Ignore match-up statistics gleaned before the conclusion of the Democrat primaries.

If you want to observe MEANINGFUL trends, you need to begin with the first week of March!
4/06-07/04 Bush 43 Kerry 44 Undecided 12 1
3/23-24/04 Bush 44 Kerry 44 Undecided 10 2
3/03-04/04 Bush 44 Kerry 44 Undecided 10 1
As you can see, the match-up stats have remained remarkably stable!
28 posted on 04/08/2004 1:02:42 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: DrDeb
"Ignore match-up statistics gleaned before..."

Do you life in a place called Emerald City?
29 posted on 04/08/2004 1:06:34 PM PDT by familyofman
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To: Wright is right!
They're coming to take me away, ho ho ha ha hee hee ho ho, to the funny farm where life is breautiful all th' time and they're coming to take me a waaaaayyyyyyyyy!

Michael


Hehehehe! Anyway, there's only two polls I trust, God's poll and the one taken on Tues. in Nov.!!!!
30 posted on 04/08/2004 1:14:23 PM PDT by RoseofTexas (All)
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To: Libertina
I couldn't agree more. The fact that Kerry continues to poll as high as he does is absolutely mind-numbing.

But then, we live in a world where the Spanish vote for Socialist appeasement in the face of mass murder, and the US finds itself in a battle with newly-liberated Iraqis who just can't seem to get enough of torture, rape, gassing, stuffing people into wood-chippers, and filling mass graves.

We live in a world gone mad...
31 posted on 04/08/2004 1:17:45 PM PDT by vanmorrison
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To: Congressman Billybob
No poll that uses push questions like this is legitimate. Unethical pollsters who use such questions conceal this, if they can get away with it.

Thanks for chiming in with this. Way too many folks here seem to claim that any poll whose results they disagree with is a "push poll." The purpose of a push poll, in any case, is not even to get a bogus result. It is a campaign commercial done via the telephone, disguised as a poll so that the respondent isn't aware that it is a commmercial. Its intention is to "push" voters away from an opponent and toward the candidate who paid for the calls.
32 posted on 04/08/2004 1:24:00 PM PDT by drjimmy
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To: ambrose
You might want to change your Headline. Bush Sr.41 Clinton 42 G.W.Bush 43 that would make Kerry 44 Oh no!!!!
33 posted on 04/08/2004 1:24:32 PM PDT by fish hawk
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To: familyofman
The 57% number was artifically high. It should not be held against Bush that he is no longer polling 20 or 30 points ahead of Kerry. The race was bound to close.
34 posted on 04/08/2004 1:27:45 PM PDT by Bonaventure
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To: familyofman
"Do you life in a place called Emerald City?"



Why would you regard as valid match-up polls between Kerry and Bush when most voters (including Democrats) were either focused on Howard Dean or ignoring the Bush/Kerry campaigns altogether? Did you also regard as meaningful the fall match-up polls that showed Howard Dean defeating Bush by single digits and Kerry by double digits?!
35 posted on 04/08/2004 1:29:24 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: DrDeb
Let met get this straight: if I read it correctly Fox News just did a poll that shows Kerry ahead and someone suggests the pollster pushed them in another direction. So now Fox News pollsters are also trying to conspire to get a poll to show Kerry ahead. In other words, if a poll shows GWB ahead, it's great and let's tout it. If a poll (even a more trustworth one done by Fox) shows him behind, it MUST be that it was a push poll, biased or not accurate. It isn't true that "the only poll that counts on election day" -- the only poll that counts (with some) is the poll that shows our guy ahead. Thank God political consultants have it a bit differently (they look at polls where our candidate may be behind and try to fix it).
36 posted on 04/08/2004 1:35:16 PM PDT by jraven
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To: DrDeb
Let met get this straight: if I read it correctly Fox News just did a poll that shows Kerry ahead and someone suggests the pollster pushed them in another direction. So now Fox News pollsters are also trying to conspire to get a poll to show Kerry ahead. In other words, if a poll shows GWB ahead, it's great and let's tout it. If a poll (even a more trustworth one done by Fox) shows him behind, it MUST be that it was a push poll, biased or not accurate. It isn't true that "the only poll that counts on election day" -- the only poll that counts (with some) is the poll that shows our guy ahead. Thank God political consultants have it a bit differently (they look at polls where our candidate may be behind and try to fix it).
37 posted on 04/08/2004 1:35:22 PM PDT by jraven
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To: vanmorrison
>

I couldn't agree more. The fact that Kerry continues to poll as high as he does is absolutely mind-numbing.

>

Heavens no. It's not at all. If you are a leftist who voted against Bush in 2000, a lot has to happen to change your mind. A lot. People don't like to think they were wrong. It's no different than making a purchase decision.
All studies show that the more you pay for something, the more pleased with it you are, regardless of any objective measures of quality. No one wants to think they were wrong.

Given that 1/2 the electorate voted against Bush, there is no surprise at all they now choose to go with Kerry. To win we have to GOTV among whoever we can find that did not vote in 2000, be they 18 or 70.

And remind people that Bush has done a good job in unprecedented circumstances. Remind them of how proud we were of him in the days after 9/11. That was a period when maybe 5% of Gore voters were truly saying . . . maybe I was wrong about Bush.
38 posted on 04/08/2004 1:38:30 PM PDT by Owen
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To: jraven
I did not engage in the discussion about push polling. [I have not examined this poll closely enough to offer an opinion]
39 posted on 04/08/2004 1:42:07 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: ambrose
Not a bad outcome, after all the violence in Iraq this past week. Bush will be ahead soon enough.
40 posted on 04/08/2004 1:43:44 PM PDT by veronica ("Kicking butt is mandatory - taking names is optional." - US Navy)
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To: ambrose
Re Elect BUsh http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=15687&item=3906788311
41 posted on 04/08/2004 1:45:09 PM PDT by CroftonFreeper (Liberals are the problem.)
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To: jraven
See Congressman Billybob's post above. He has the jist of what is meant by "pushed" in this context down absolutely perfectly.
42 posted on 04/08/2004 1:50:10 PM PDT by Dales
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To: HostileTerritory
God help us all if Kerry can get elected in November. If someone with a liberal voting record as Kerry can win the White House, then a President Feinstein or even a Lady Barbara Boxer is foreseeable in the future.
43 posted on 04/08/2004 6:06:19 PM PDT by Kuksool (9-11 happened when the RATS controlled the Senate)
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To: Bonaventure
"The 57% number was artifically high. It should not be held against Bush ..."

Not my point at all. The trend, the trend over the last 3-4 months is not good. Spin it anyway you want, but don't try to tell me to ignore what is plainly there, ala the Wizard. Live in a dream world & ignore what is plain, I choose to look at things as they are.
44 posted on 04/08/2004 6:13:47 PM PDT by familyofman
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To: familyofman
I choose to look at things as they are.

No you don't. The 57 number for Bush was artificially high. The Bush administration has said this would be close election, and has been saying that for the last year.

The polls prove it.

45 posted on 04/08/2004 6:19:34 PM PDT by sinkspur (Adopt a dog or a cat from an animal shelter! It will save one life, and may save two.)
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To: ambrose
Who are they polling? The French?
46 posted on 04/08/2004 6:23:05 PM PDT by dalebert
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To: KQQL
I am sure someone has this data.....it would be interesting to see where Ike stood in 56, Nixon in 72, Reagan in 84 ans Clinton in 96 on a month by month basis, just to see if we should be concerned or amused by the 43% number posted by GWB.

I am not much of a Polyanna and am nervous about 43%, yet it is so early, I'd love to know where the reelected ones sat in mid April....May, June, and July, before they each reached their respective conentions.

47 posted on 04/08/2004 6:25:11 PM PDT by irish guard
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To: sinkspur
"The polls prove it."

Then why are you in denial that W once had a 57%. Why is that number, derived at a particular point in time, any less valid than a number derived in the same manner by the same group today? Don't start parsing, just because you don't like the trend.

I think the trend & what it shows is valid. If you accept the current number - how can you dismiss the rest of the series? It's strickly a 'number(stat) thing'.
48 posted on 04/08/2004 6:29:52 PM PDT by familyofman
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To: familyofman
If you accept the current number - how can you dismiss the rest of the series?

Nobody was paying attention in December. More are paying attention now.

I don't see why you can't see that the numbers get more meaningful the closer to the election we get because more people are paying attention!

49 posted on 04/08/2004 6:35:11 PM PDT by sinkspur (Adopt a dog or a cat from an animal shelter! It will save one life, and may save two.)
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To: sinkspur
"I don't see why you can't see that the numbers get more meaningful the closer to the election we get because more people are paying attention!"

Oh but I do. I just happen to think it's dishonest to pick & choose what numbers you feel are meaningful. Once the conventions are over & there have been a debate or 2, then the numbers become a lot more meaninful. But, early trnds should not be dismissed 'out of hand'. This is especially true if the trend is going against you - it should be a call to action, not rationalized away with empty bromides.
50 posted on 04/08/2004 6:42:13 PM PDT by familyofman
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