CAVEAT: Polling at this juncture is meaningless . . . Kerry will get a BUMP after the DNC convention and GWB will get a BUMP after the RNC convention (which will happen a month AFTER the DNC convention) . . . all we need to do is make sure that GWB's BUMP lasts until November 2!!!!
950 Likely Voters (MOE 3.2)
6/05/04 46% excellent/good (52%-56% approve) 54% fair/poor
5/13/04 42% excellent/good (48%-42% approve) 58% fair/poor
6/05/04 Kerry 44% GWB 42%
5/13/04 Kerry 47% GWB 42%
Blue States/Red States (inverse differential within MOE)
BlueStates: Kerry 53% GWB 34%
Red States: Kerry 35% GWB 50%
[NOTE: Gallup puts the Red State differential at 48% GWB 44% Kerry (+4) -- Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm The polling disparity between Zogby and Gallup merely underscores the BOGUS nature of current polling techniques!]
June04 Worth It: 56% Not Worth It: 43% (+13)
May 04 Worth It: 47% Not Worth It: 50% (-3)
Dec 04 Worth It: 49% Not Worth It: 42% (+7)
1000 Adults (MOE 3)
6/03-06/04 49% approve 49% disapprove (even)
5/21-23/04 47% approve 49% disapprove (-2)
5/07-09/04 46% approve 51% disapprove (-5)
[Trendline UP -- it can take 2-3 weeks for generic 'adults' to alter their perceptions based on new economic/War data!
FYI: According to Gallup, President Reagan's average approval rating was 52%!]
896 Registered Voters (MOE 4)
6/03-06/04 Kerry 45% GWB 42% Nader 7%
599 Likely Voters (MOE 4)
6/03-06/04 Kerry 49% GWB 43% Nader 5%
[NOTE: Gallup's Match-up numbers are MEANINGLESS -- the sample size is TOO SMALL and the Margin of Error is TOO BIG!!!]
INVESTORS BUSINESS DAILY/TIPP
858 Registered Voters
6/01-06/04 GWB 43% Kerry 41% (+2)
5/12-18/04 GWB 42% Kerry 41%
The President has survived 2-months of BRUTAL attacks from the Kerry/DNC/media cabal with his BASE solidly behind him (approximately 90%), his generic approval ratings hovering at the 50% mark, and his head-to-head match-up with Kerry still statistically tied!
The President is well-positioned for this fall's convention!
[Remember: The summer before their fall election victories, Lincoln, Truman, Reagan, and Bush 41 ALL trailed their Democrat opponents -- 3 of the 4 by double digits!!!]
GO BUSH-CHENEY 04 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hi Dr. Deb--
Thanks for the poll results. I had heard that the ZOGBY one was better for our President. I think you've said this--but if he can survive the last few months with all the stuff that's been going on, these numbers are looking pretty good!
It's going to be pretty interesting to see how everything shakes out this week, with the funeral of Ronald Reagan (those Bush men are going to have us all in tears, I think, including the Bush women!), Kerry's showing off at the Library, and Clintoons little tantrum.
I hope to heck they (Clintoon and Kerry) don't do something at the funeral, but I'm afraid their desire for attention will override their limited concept of tact and decency.