Political analyst sees Kerry victory (U of Va's Larry Sabato tells why)

BIRMINGHAM NEWS ^ | August 08, 2004 | DAVID WHITE

[Mudboy Slim]

Sabato's a PUNK...MUD

[SunnySide]

"Why are so many analysts saying that this race is already over?"

1. Because they're liberal leftists, militant gays or closet gays

2. They asked their psychic, crystal ball, weegee board

3. They make up b.s. to stir controversary = job security

4. They're blithering dolts

[1L]

Sabato is either expressing wishful thinking, or he's an idiot. In late August 2000, ""They spent six months constructing the education program, Social Security
plan, and compassionate-conservative image, and in one
not-terribly-well-devised week, it was utterly destroyed by the Democratic convention," says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia at Charlottesville."

June 2000: "University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato puts it a different way. "If George W. Bush plus Pat Buchanan equals 52 percent of the overall vote, Republicans retain control," he says. "If Al Gore plus Ralph Nader equals 52 percent of the overall vote, Democrats take the House. If no one achieves 52 percent, I can’t help you. It could go either way." (Obviously, Gore + Nader was more than 52%.)

I may be mistaken, but I think Sabato is the guy that came up with 13 factors in deciding a presidential election. He claimed it was almost foolproof, and of course, had Gore winning in 2000. The problem with this factor business is that it wasn't objective in the least, as to input the factor took very subjective decisions. Of course, Gore got all the close ones.

It may not have been Sabato, but the point here is the same. There isn't a polysci prof in this country who is worth a damn. I can think of no more useless drivel than anything coming from a professor who claims to have some insight on elections. Anyone that has followed national politics for 5 years knows as much as these idiots, and their statements are neither profound nor even anything new. To me, they are either obvious, or wishful thinking towards their own biases.