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Intelligence Agencies Fear Escalation of Violence
Der Spiegel ^ | Sept. 5, 2004 | Friedrich Kuhn

Posted on 09/05/2004 8:36:23 PM PDT by T Ruth

The brutality of the hostage-taking and the targeted murder of children has shocked even experienced professionals. According to the estimation of intelligence analysts, the Beslan perpetrators have reached a level of terrorism that can lead to even greater violence.

Berlin/Washington – Early analyses of the German intelligence agencies and the American CIA agree that an incredible escalation in terrorist attacks has shown itself in the Beslan school in the Russian Republic of North Ostien.

Until now, children have been substantially protected in all the attacks of the international terrorist organizations. The increasing brutality is now to be expected from the terrorists of the al quaida network, who are certainly involved not only in Iraq, but also with the Chechen rebels. It is reported that among the terrorists of Beslan were ten arabs. The Russian news agency ITAR-Tass reports that the hostage-taking was financed by Abu Omar As-Sejf, an arab representative of al-quaida in Chechnya.

German agencies have been interested for some time in the connections between the muslim Caucasus-separatists living in Germany and the locals in Chechnya. An intelligence analyst said that it has become apparent that a large number of islamic extremists who were living in Germany were devoted to the struggle for freedom of the Chechens.

Pro-Chechen extremists had for this reason left Germany some time ago for the North Caucasus. Also, funds are continually being raised in Germany for the fighters in Chechnya. In this manner, Germany has “somehow fallen into the dangerous ambit of Chechnya.”

According to CIA circles, a substantial number of al quaida activists have infiltrated Iraq and are fighting in the ranks of the Iraqi resistance. A similar phenomenon has been observed in Chechnya. A CIA analyst said the country, like the entire North Caucasus region, was being used as a test area to determine how far political decisions of governments can be influenced through a gruesome campaign against the civilian population. The Chechens want to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to his knees. They intend for him to sign a treaty to withdraw his soldiers from Chechnya.

The CIA agent recalled Spain, where islamic terrorists directly intervened in domestic Spanish politics by the March 11 attacks on the suburban trains of Madrid, and caused a change of administration from conservative to socialist. The latter recalled its soldiers from Iraq. Al quaida, which acknowledged [making] the attacks, achieved its objective, that a western country withdraw from the arabian sphere of influence.

The president of the German intelligence service, August Hanning, aroused attention last week by a public speech. Contrary to his usual reticence, he made known that he fears a major al quaida attack in the USA before the American presidential election in November. He said, however, that an attack could also take place in a country allied with the USA. Hanning said that al quaida had completely re-constituted itself organizationally and personnel-wise.

Security circles interpreted the weekend statements of the head of the German intelligence service to mean that the services fear that al quaida, with its support of the Chechen rebels, is pursuing a new world-wide strategy: to use attacks of the most brutal kind to influence elections, so as to spread islam over the entire world. Especially at present, attacks on Russian installations such as embassies are feared, even in Germany.


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Russia; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alquaida; beslan; ossetia; russia; terrorism
Interesting article from a liberal German magazine. The author does not shrink from stating the case baldly: "al quaida . . . is pursuing a new world-wide strategy: to use attacks of the most brutal kind to influence elections, so as to spread islam over the entire world."
1 posted on 09/05/2004 8:36:28 PM PDT by T Ruth
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To: T Ruth

yes, but he links Iraq to the Chechen "quagmire." Look for that to become a Dhimmicrat talking-point.


2 posted on 09/05/2004 8:41:26 PM PDT by pierrem15
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To: T Ruth
Until now, children have been substantially protected in all the attacks of the international terrorist organizations.

Evidently young Israeli children don't qualify by German standards.

3 posted on 09/05/2004 8:42:58 PM PDT by randog (What the....?!)
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To: randog

Good observation.


4 posted on 09/05/2004 8:45:43 PM PDT by T Ruth
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To: T Ruth

5 posted on 09/05/2004 8:45:46 PM PDT by formercalifornian (Democrat platform: Hate, hate, hate, hate, tolerance, hate, hate, hate, hate)
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To: T Ruth

A Beslan or Madrid style attack would not be impossible in the US. I also expect them to launch such an attack before the elections. How much it affects the election would be hard to predict; immediately before election day would probably provoke more voters to pull the lever for Bush. If it happened a few weeks before, the Dems would have time to play it to their advantage, and it might tip it the other way.

Since our southern and northern borders are essentially open to anyone willing to walk cross-country, it won't be impossible to filter a few dozen suicide commandos into the country, and if I am right they are already here and have been here a while.

September 11 is coming up, and it doesn't take a genius to imagine they might like to mark that date with a reprise.

Pray and keep your powder dry.


6 posted on 09/05/2004 8:50:19 PM PDT by marron
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To: randog

I was hoping someone would point that out. Thanks.


7 posted on 09/05/2004 8:53:30 PM PDT by Bahbah
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To: marron

Unfortunately, your post is all too accurate.


8 posted on 09/05/2004 8:55:34 PM PDT by T Ruth
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To: Bahbah; xzins; Alamo-Girl; veronica; Catspaw

FYI.......ping


9 posted on 09/05/2004 8:56:21 PM PDT by maestro
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To: randog
Evidently young Israeli children don't qualify by German standards.

You're right, they didn't and don't. It wasn't that long ago that young Jewish children went up the smokestacks at Treblinka, Auschwitz-Birkenau, Dachau, Chelmno, Sobibor, Belzek and Majdanek, along with their mothers, fathers, grandparents,,,
10 posted on 09/05/2004 8:57:24 PM PDT by RonHolzwarth ("History repeats itself - first as tragedy, then as farce" - Karl Marx)
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To: T Ruth
"al quaida . . . is pursuing a new world-wide strategy: to use attacks of the most brutal kind to influence elections, so as to spread islam over the entire world."

His head is stuck in the sand... Al Qaida was building a world wide network for exactly this purpose well before 9/11, and well before the Russian school.

It certainly wasn't a network designed to spread love and good will.

11 posted on 09/05/2004 9:03:18 PM PDT by coconutt2000
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To: T Ruth
Until now, children have been substantially protected in all the attacks of the international terrorist organizations.

"Substantially protected", my @ss.

Israeli children & their mothers have been targeted. In other instances children were only "collateral damage", but they certainly weren't protected.

The real difference is that now they have been specifically targeted.

Where is the UN ? What do you say Kofi, old boy ? Should we all sing "kumbaya" over the dead bodies ?

Hopefully, the Russians will not be bashful about retaliation.

If Pres. Bush could forge an alliance against terror with the Russians, it might be the only good thing to come out of this.

12 posted on 09/05/2004 9:03:27 PM PDT by CurlyDave
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To: CurlyDave
If Pres. Bush could forge an alliance against terror with the Russians, it might be the only good thing to come out of this.

Yes. An alliance on cultural, or perhaps better, "civilizational" grounds might be more fruitful and lasting than the WWII alliance against the Nazis.

13 posted on 09/05/2004 9:12:16 PM PDT by T Ruth
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To: maestro

Thanks for the ping!


14 posted on 09/05/2004 9:13:48 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: T Ruth
I would settle for a pragmatic alliance against a common threat for starters.

I have been to Russia and did business with Russians for several years. We have much more in common than we have differences.

15 posted on 09/05/2004 9:16:15 PM PDT by CurlyDave
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To: marron

All those OTM's crossing our southern border doesn't give one much peace of mind, does it.


16 posted on 09/05/2004 9:20:17 PM PDT by TheLion
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To: T Ruth
...reached a level of terrorism that can lead to even greater violence.

It darn well should lead to a BIG escalation in the violence is all I have to say about it.

17 posted on 09/05/2004 9:25:45 PM PDT by San Jacinto
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To: CurlyDave
I'd settle just for the Russians not giving nuclear technology to the nutjob terrorist masters in Iran.

I've been asking for a year now. Not an inch so far.

18 posted on 09/05/2004 9:32:20 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: marron
I believe that any and all schools that have had major work done to them over the summer MUST have bomb sniffing dogs run through the schools. This terrorist bunch had access to the school during the remodeling of the Belsan School and they stashed explosives and ammo under the new gym floor. This might be what their plan is for our voting period.

Tell me what would make it even more horrible than just having an American school of 1000 children being held by Islamics terrorists?

It would be more horrible (to some) if they do it when Americans are suppose to be voting at the polls for our next president. Even though it probably would not work on most of us, but they think it would influence they way the American people would vote. Simply take a school and the children hostage on 11/1/04 and demand that if Bush wins they will blow up the school with all the children in it, and claim if Bush does not win they will let the children go. They also know that elections might be held off, but they will demand if it is, then the school goes up with all the children in it. There is no way we could enter the school as they would have it wired up just like they did in Belsan. The thing is MOST American people are more rational, but now we totally see that terrorist will kill anyone no matter what age they are. They think it is helping their cause, but we all know (and now some other countries are waking up) that it does not. What could it hurt if the government ran bomb sniffing dogs through schools that were remodeled over the summer? Start with them first and then start checking other schools that have not been remodeled over the summer.
19 posted on 09/05/2004 9:32:37 PM PDT by stlnative (We are going to win one for the Gipper, and they are going to lose one with the Flipper)
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To: T Ruth

Time to get real nasty with these Animals.


20 posted on 09/05/2004 9:34:58 PM PDT by Fast1
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To: marron

Any suicide attacks should be responded to, by assassinating all known living members of the sucicide attackers family. Then in affect a sucicide bomber, hostage taker, ect. would by his actions condemn all members of his family to death. This is how Russia should respond and all other countries who are attacked by terrorists. Also, all muslim countries should be put on notice that if one weapon of mass destruction is used by terrorists in an attack, then all of the worlds muslim countries will be destroyed by weapons of mass destruction.


21 posted on 09/05/2004 9:40:34 PM PDT by A6M3
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To: T Ruth
Beslan perpetrators have reached a level of terrorism that can lead to even greater violence.

Uh no kidding who is going to wait around to be the next victim? When you have the cards raise em and force them to fold before they can get stronger...should be about 1000 to one payback on any terrist acts.

22 posted on 09/05/2004 9:53:11 PM PDT by rolling_stone
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To: A6M3

When the Romans were unable to reach an accomodation with an enemy, and had found the enemy so intractable as to be incapable of keeping a peace agreement, they would, after conquering, kill every living thing in the enemy's territory: men, women, children, dogs, horses - everything.

The Romans did not do this out of savagery, but because they had determined over the course of hundreds of years that such measures were the only effective means of causing barbarians to fear Rome enough that they would stop committing depradations on the fringes of the Empire.


23 posted on 09/05/2004 10:18:20 PM PDT by fire_eye ("Kill 'em. Kill 'em all." - Gen. Stonewall Jackson, CSA)
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To: fire_eye

That was true then, and it's true now.


24 posted on 09/05/2004 10:50:38 PM PDT by A6M3
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To: T Ruth

The russian attacks are a stage. A full 'stage' like 9/11 was.

Why do we put up with islam?


25 posted on 09/05/2004 10:52:43 PM PDT by Kornev
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To: randog
Evidently young Israeli children don't qualify by German standards.

Apparently not. The world both never acknowledged and quickly forgot about the pregnant Israeli woman and her 4 children who were machine-gunned in their car a few months ago. I knew then the type of animals we were dealing with...

26 posted on 09/05/2004 11:21:06 PM PDT by Clock King
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To: Kornev

When the terrorists held the children hostage, Putin should have informed them, that chechneya was being held hostage and if they didn't surrender and release the children that chechneya would be vaporized with thermonuclear weapons. That's where the Russian government made its big mistake. Somtimes Putin in situations that warrant it, has to ask himself, what would Stalin have done?


27 posted on 09/05/2004 11:21:15 PM PDT by A6M3
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To: TheLion

There hasn't been the political will to properly police the borders yet. Let something happen, though, and everyone will want to know why it wasn't done (as we here at FR already wonder).

That will be the subject matter of the next congressional commission investigating America's Beslan.

I obviously hope I am not right.


28 posted on 09/05/2004 11:50:21 PM PDT by marron
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To: A6M3
what would Stalin have done?

WWSD?

I'm not going to come out in favor of Stalin, but we are learning that being one of Stalins' victims does not automatically make you a Jeffersonian Democrat.

Just as being one of Saddam's victims didn't make Muqtadr Sadr into a political progressive. And I was watching an interview today with some of the bad guys in Fallujah, who had been brutalized by Saddam, but were now fighting us because they didn't have electricity quickly enough.

Some souls yearn to be free, and some souls demand to be locked up.

29 posted on 09/06/2004 12:01:11 AM PDT by marron
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To: T Ruth

Al Qaeda Network = Islam

You get rid of a million terrorists and a million take their place. They can't and don't field them all at once. "Moderate" Muslims are the bench and support for Al Qaeda players.


30 posted on 09/06/2004 12:07:32 AM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide (Give Them Liberty Or Give Them Death! - Islam Delenda Est! - Rumble thee forth...)
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To: marron
because they didn't have electricity quickly enough

Media consumption BS.
31 posted on 09/06/2004 12:10:24 AM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide (Give Them Liberty Or Give Them Death! - Islam Delenda Est! - Rumble thee forth...)
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide

It was almost funny. They told the interviewer about having been brutalized by Saddam, imprisoned, some members of the family killed.

So aren't you glad the Americans overthrew him?

"Yes, a thousand times, we would drink Saddam's blood."

So why are you fighting the Americans?

"They promised us stability and electricity and they haven't delivered."

Some folks just need killin'.


32 posted on 09/06/2004 12:17:11 AM PDT by marron
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To: marron

I'm not a fan of Stalin either but in this game the most brutal wins. The reason we beat the Japanese in WW2 is because we had the means to kill every Japanese in Japan with minimal losses to ourselves and demonstrated to them our willingness to do just that. That's what it will take to win the war on terror. Nothing less.


33 posted on 09/06/2004 12:17:13 AM PDT by A6M3
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To: marron
I am probably just whistling past the graveyard, but I think any attack between now and the election would result in more votes for George Bush. Because we've had no attacks on our land since 9/11 I fear a lot of people are getting complacent. An attack at this point would probably serve remind voters of just real the WOT is. Kerry is telling us that the WOT has been over emphasized. An attack would certainly render that opinion as groundless. In addition, I don't think voters would want to change administrations to go from one that considers terrorism a clear and present danger for one that would need several months to get up to speed. I pray constantly that this will be a moot discussion and we will never know what effect a pre-election terrorists attack would have on the outcome.
34 posted on 09/06/2004 12:19:18 AM PDT by jwpjr
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To: jwpjr
I pray constantly that this will be a moot discussion and we will never know what effect a pre-election terrorists attack would have on the outcome.

Me too.

35 posted on 09/06/2004 12:23:16 AM PDT by marron
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To: A6M3

And we changed the Japanese religion. Won't likely to get Allah to make that radio address that saved the Japanese, though.


36 posted on 09/06/2004 12:29:49 AM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide (Give Them Liberty Or Give Them Death! - Islam Delenda Est! - Rumble thee forth...)
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To: T Ruth

Stay armed and alert until we are sure that the terrorists are beaten. A couple of teachers or parents with concealed handguns at that Russkie school could have broken up or stalled the attack long enough for a lot of the children to escape. Believe me, it it had happened in Texas the terrorists would have been surprised to find serious resistance.


37 posted on 09/06/2004 1:12:32 PM PDT by darth
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