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How close is the race for president? |
Posted on 09/22/2004 11:03:18 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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How close is the race for president? |
W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
| Bush | Kerry | Nader | Other | DK | Sep | |
| US (weighted) |
47% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 7-21 |
| State: | ||||||
| Alabama | 54% | 40% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 13-16 |
| Alaska | 57% | 30% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9-11 |
| Arizona | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-14 |
| Arkansas | 48% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 15-17 |
| California | 41% | 52% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| Colorado | 46% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 10-13 |
| Connecticut | 39% | 54% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Delaware | 41% | 50% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 13-15 |
| DC | 11% | 78% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Florida | 45% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 17-20 |
| Georgia | 53% | 42% | * | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Hawaii | 41% | 51% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 7-11 |
| Idaho | 59% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 8-10 |
| Illinois | 43% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 13-16 |
| Indiana | 54% | 39% | * | 1% | 6% | 16-20 |
| Iowa | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Kansas | 57% | 35% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 15-18 |
| Kentucky | 57% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 8-12 |
| Louisiana | 50% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 17-21 |
| Maine | 44% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 8-10 |
| Maryland | 43% | 52% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7-9 |
| Massachusetts | 27% | 64% | * | 1% | 7% | 10-13 |
| Michigan | 40% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 17-21 |
| Minnesota | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-12 |
| Mississippi | 51% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 14-17 |
| Missouri | 50% | 44% | * | 1% | 5% | 16-19 |
| Montana | 60% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 7-9 |
| Nebraska | 61% | 30% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 9-12 |
| Nevada | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-14 |
| New Hampshire | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 15-17 |
| New Jersey | 42% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| New Mexico | 44% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 14-16 |
| New York | 40% | 52% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 14-16 |
| North Carolina | 49% | 44% | * | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| North Dakota | 62% | 33% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 7-10 |
| Ohio | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 17-20 |
| Oklahoma | 55% | 38% | * | 1% | 6% | 15-20 |
| Oregon | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Pennsylvania | 46% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 15-19 |
| Rhode Island | 30% | 58% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| South Carolina | 52% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 14-16 |
| South Dakota | 58% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 8-12 |
| Tennessee | 50% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-18 |
| Texas | 58% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-20 |
| Utah | 64% | 27% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Vermont | 40% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 9-12 |
| Virginia | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 7% | 12-14 |
| Washington | 44% | 51% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-13 |
| West Virginia | 46% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 14-16 |
| Wisconsin | 46% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-15 |
| Wyoming | 65% | 29% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-11 |
| 600 completed telephone interviews among likely voters in each state and DC on dates in September (Sep). MOE ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time. Row totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. |
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ARRRRGGGGGGGGG !!!!
Okay, I think it's polloganda, but I'll *act* like its true ...
work like the dickens to HELP BUSH WIN.
One of those "interactive" polls the Dems have been juicing?
bush and kerry are not tied in wisconsin or west virgina
This poll is crap.
|
How close is the race for president? |
| Bush | Kerry | Nader | Other | DK | Sep | |
| US (weighted) | 47% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 7-21 |
| State: | ||||||
| Alabama | 54% | 40% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 13-16 |
| Alaska | 57% | 30% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9-11 |
| Arizona | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-14 |
| Arkansas | 48% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 15-17 |
| California | 41% | 52% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| Colorado | 46% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 10-13 |
| Connecticut | 39% | 54% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Delaware | 41% | 50% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 13-15 |
| DC | 11% | 78% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Florida | 45% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 17-20 |
| Georgia | 53% | 42% | * | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Hawaii | 41% | 51% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 7-11 |
| Idaho | 59% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 8-10 |
| Illinois | 43% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 13-16 |
| Indiana | 54% | 39% | * | 1% | 6% | 16-20 |
| Iowa | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Kansas | 57% | 35% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 15-18 |
| Kentucky | 57% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 8-12 |
| Louisiana | 50% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 17-21 |
| Maine | 44% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 8-10 |
| Maryland | 43% | 52% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7-9 |
| Massachusetts | 27% | 64% | * | 1% | 7% | 10-13 |
| Michigan | 40% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 17-21 |
| Minnesota | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-12 |
| Mississippi | 51% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 14-17 |
| Missouri | 50% | 44% | * | 1% | 5% | 16-19 |
| Montana | 60% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 7-9 |
| Nebraska | 61% | 30% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 9-12 |
| Nevada | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-14 |
| New Hampshire | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 15-17 |
| New Jersey | 42% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| New Mexico | 44% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 14-16 |
| New York | 40% | 52% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 14-16 |
| North Carolina | 49% | 44% | * | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| North Dakota | 62% | 33% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 7-10 |
| Ohio | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 17-20 |
| Oklahoma | 55% | 38% | * | 1% | 6% | 15-20 |
| Oregon | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Pennsylvania | 46% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 15-19 |
| Rhode Island | 30% | 58% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| South Carolina | 52% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 14-16 |
| South Dakota | 58% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 8-12 |
| Tennessee | 50% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-18 |
| Texas | 58% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-20 |
| Utah | 64% | 27% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Vermont | 40% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 9-12 |
| Virginia | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 7% | 12-14 |
| Washington | 44% | 51% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-13 |
| West Virginia | 46% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 14-16 |
| Wisconsin | 46% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-15 |
| Wyoming | 65% | 29% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-11 |
| 600 completed telephone interviews among likely voters in each state and DC on dates in September (Sep). MOE ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time. Row totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. |
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ARG is full of crap, no way Ohio is only a 2 point race.
No. This is a legitimate polling outfit that uses traditional polling methods.
The same traditional polling methods that gave Gore double digit leads in Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky in 2000?
ARG is a joke.
The big one in this poll is Florida. A Must Win for Bush
I just don't believe polls anymore.
These are the same people that had Schwarzenegger in CA having no chance to win last year.
Bzzt. wrong answer. BS poll. FWIW, I've got a Bush win at roughly 280 to Kerry's 230 give or take a few.
ARG is useful because they use the same method for every state. They're pretty consistently off 3 or 4 points (some say 5, but let's be conservative) in Kerry's favor so they give an interesting state-by-state post-adjustment picture of the race.
What does weighted mean?
As others have mentioned, ARG tends to lean far, far left. Even at that, if W takes only FL out of Fn's tally, he wins by a fair margin.
FL will be tough, but I've got to believe we will win it once again, and with it the election.
I believe the polls, or some of them at least. I will tell you which ones on November 3.
SEE http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
Weighted averages of all polls show Bush well ahead.
yep, Bush up by only 11 in GA? What, were they polling Atlanta?
Actually, you are not far off from ARG's numbers then. They show F'n with a one point lead in FL. If you flip that state to W, their numbers come very close to yours.
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