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Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 200 Bush 321
Electoral-Vote.com ^

Posted on 10/05/2004 4:45:44 AM PDT by stevek1

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 200 Bush 321

(Excerpt) Read more at electoral-vote.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: electoralvotes; kewl

1 posted on 10/05/2004 4:45:44 AM PDT by stevek1
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To: stevek1

Vamos, Dubya! Go, Dubya!


2 posted on 10/05/2004 4:47:01 AM PDT by Reader of news
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To: stevek1

Oh yes.. I really do like the trend.


3 posted on 10/05/2004 4:49:22 AM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: dc-zoo

You must not be paying attention...it's all gloom and doom...Bush lost the debate you know and his numbers are in free fall. (end/sarcasm)


4 posted on 10/05/2004 4:51:08 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: stevek1

Wait a minute - I thought we all gave up after the debate and the Newsweek poll. I thought it was all over........ /sarcasm


5 posted on 10/05/2004 4:53:23 AM PDT by SW6906
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To: dawn53

Somebody needs to inform Dick Morris. I've had it with him. I wish Sean Hannity would stop treating him like he's so great.


6 posted on 10/05/2004 4:56:24 AM PDT by rushmom
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To: stevek1

Glad to read this. Thank you.


7 posted on 10/05/2004 5:00:12 AM PDT by syriacus (I'm commanded to LOVE peaceniks, but I don't have to VOTE for one as my Commander-in-Chief.)
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To: stevek1

Rumor has it, the man who runs that site is a Dem. I've noticed over the weeks, that his numbers do seem to favor Kerry... ;o)


8 posted on 10/05/2004 5:04:07 AM PDT by wrbones (Where'd I put my tin foil hat....)
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To: SW6906

Don't be swayed by the defeatists in this forum. These are the ones who flail their arms, rend their clothing and tear out their hair everytime they hit a patch of adversity. Fortunately they are in the minority, albeit a very vocal minority. Some of them are plants sent over here from the other side to discourage us. Don't let those tactics work.


9 posted on 10/05/2004 5:04:32 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (The NHL is not playing - does anybody notice?)
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To: stevek1

What worries me more than anything is this sudden and unprecedented last minute surge in voter registrations in Dummycratic areas.


10 posted on 10/05/2004 5:05:36 AM PDT by CurlyBill (Voter Fraud is one of the primary campaign strategies of the Democrats!)
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To: stevek1

What are these polls that Tim Russert on the Today Show is quoting? 47% to 47& and 49% to 49%? He didn't even say. Just threw some numbers out there.


11 posted on 10/05/2004 5:10:15 AM PDT by Raven281
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To: stevek1

If these numbers really reflected how the voters are going to vote, sKerry is in trouble.

Strong Kerry (112)
Weak Kerry (46)
Barely Kerry (42)
Exactly tied (17)
Barely Bush (94)
Weak Bush (100)
Strong Bush (127)


12 posted on 10/05/2004 5:11:32 AM PDT by MattMa (I'm not a victim, I am a conservative and if you get to close, I just may bite.)
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To: CurlyBill

Registrations do not translate into sure votes. Unless they're voting absentee, those registrations have to make it to the polls on voting day. That takes initiative and conviction. Remember, Kerry is not giving convincing reasons to vote for him. Much of the Kerry vote is anti-Bush, and the lukewarm disinterested never- registered- before antiBush crowd just won't bother.


13 posted on 10/05/2004 5:12:34 AM PDT by Dusty Rose
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To: wrbones
Rumor has it, the man who runs that site is a Dem. I've noticed over the weeks, that his numbers do seem to favor Kerry

From the Welcome page: "I am a Kerry supporter. I am open about that. Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan. Only the third row of menu items below the map contains material that could be considered pro-Kerry (e.g., jokes about George Bush). If you are a Kerry supporter, an independent, a moderate Republican who is fed up with the President's fiscal and other policies or even a conservative Republican who feels betrayed and who has a sense of humor, you will probably enjoy them. If you want an election site that has a pro-Bush bias from beginning to end, including all over the main page, try www.electionprojection.com.

14 posted on 10/05/2004 5:27:12 AM PDT by StayAt HomeMother
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To: Dubya's fan
Lo and behold, they have now finally agreed with ME. I've had Bush at 320 since early last year, and now I think I'm wrong.

I'm way low.

15 posted on 10/05/2004 5:27:35 AM PDT by LS
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To: Dusty Rose
Couple of other points on "registrations": 1) just because you register people in a "Democratic" district or at a "Democratic" event doesn't make them necessarily Dem voters or even Dem registers. For ex., young people are about 40% Bush. So you have a concert to "rock the vote," you will NOT be getting 100% Kerry voters.

2) Many once-Dem districts are rapidly changing (and some GOP districts, vice versa).

3) Many "new" registrations are in fact people who have just moved from one county to another within the same state. Nothing has changed.

Bottom line: I expect fraud, but I think it will be far less than some of the hysterical people here suggest. If this were FL 2000, it might be a concern, but in a place like Ohio, I don't think it's going to dent Dubya's decisive victory.

16 posted on 10/05/2004 5:31:58 AM PDT by LS
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To: stevek1
These numbers look good, but remember that 68 electoral votes are concentrated in three states listed as Barely Bush: OH, PA, and FL. Voter fraud in Cleveland, Columbus, Youngstown, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Scranton, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Palm Beach could very easily tip those three states to Kerry. In only one of the three states (FL) is it likely that the State authorities might take measures against vote fraud. PA may be hopeless, as its governor is a product of the Philadelphia political machine. OH's GOP is dominated by RINOs who will not confront vote fraud. If these three states go to Kerry through fraud, Kerry's totals go to 268. Then, with the cooperation of corrupt Hispanic and American Indian politicians in northern NM, the Land of Entrapment,...er, Enchantment, could go to Kerry, giving him the needed 271 electoral votes.

I hope my fears are unfounded.

17 posted on 10/05/2004 5:32:41 AM PDT by Wallace T.
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To: SamAdams76
"Don't be swayed by the defeatists in this forum."

That bears repeating ... So with your permission ...

Don't be swayed by the defeatists in this forum.

18 posted on 10/05/2004 5:38:05 AM PDT by G.Mason (John Kerry: He's mad as a hatter, all right, but he sure has a nice way of saying it.)
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To: stevek1

Gallup sure ain't encouraging


19 posted on 10/05/2004 5:51:52 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: stevek1

We're doomed!


20 posted on 10/05/2004 5:53:22 AM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: G.Mason

I predict BUSH will get 350+ electoral votes.


21 posted on 10/05/2004 5:55:03 AM PDT by lotex
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To: Dusty Rose

I agree with you, but this matter cannot be dismissed. If they are getting people to take the trouble to register, most of them will vote. I worry even more about voter fraud, which the Democrats have become experts at.


22 posted on 10/05/2004 6:01:16 AM PDT by CurlyBill (Voter Fraud is one of the primary campaign strategies of the Democrats!)
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To: rushmom

Morris is a putz. He has changed his mind between picking Kerry and Bush to win so many times, I can't keep track. He seems to go with whichever candidate is having the good news cycle.


23 posted on 10/05/2004 6:07:52 AM PDT by Freemyland
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To: Freemyland

I've noticed that too about Morris. He's politically smart when it comes to tactics, but seems to follow the flow when it comes to predictions of outcomes.


24 posted on 10/05/2004 6:18:31 AM PDT by SW6906
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To: CurlyBill

The difference between registration and voting is that with registering, the "recruiters" come to the people. With voting, those who are registered must make a trip to the polls. My point is that ice cream parties on campuses, and registration sites set up at malls where the kids hang out, does not equal votes on election day when it takes time and effort to do one's civic duty. I may be wrong.


25 posted on 10/05/2004 6:29:46 AM PDT by Dusty Rose
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To: dawn53
You must not be paying attention...it's all gloom and doom...Bush lost the debate you know and his numbers are in free fall.

I don't know if you were here in 2000 but Bush was at 51% or so in the polls then and DAMN NEAR LOST Good thing we had the electoral college

As an incumbent with a proven record he should be over 55%

His performance in the debate was pathetic and should have resulted in a POLL SURGE
He played Mr Nice guy

Things are NOT looking good
26 posted on 10/05/2004 6:30:48 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: wrbones

Actually, I think it's a woman who runs the site, and she/he is most definitely a DIM. I check that site out every morning, and it's definitely run a by a leftist, albeit a reasonably professional and objective leftist.


27 posted on 10/05/2004 6:34:04 AM PDT by A Balrog of Morgoth (With fire, sword, and stinging whip I drive the Rats in terror before me.)
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To: uncbob

I was around in 2000, but Bush was not facing the kind of all out attack he is facing during this election.

You've got Soros, Moore, media, press, all trying to persuade the public that Bush is a liar and a failure.

During the 2000 recount I can remember similar rhetoric about how Bush wasn't fighting hard enough to win the recount.

And countless times through his Presidency, his constituency seems to go "wobbly".

Right before the 2002 there was lots of moaning and groaning about how Bush wasn't doing enough to ensure Republican seats, blah,blah,blah. Seems to me even Rush Limbaugh was in on that complaining.

But Bush reversed the norm and seats were added during the midterms.

With Bush, I'm convinced, it's never over till it's over, no matter how it looks to us. That seems to be the hallmark of his Presidency, so I will wait to pass judgement until we get to the end of "the trail" on Nov. 2nd.


28 posted on 10/05/2004 6:39:12 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: lotex
"I predict BUSH will get 350+ electoral votes."

I don't profess to be a polling follower, until this time in the campaign.

It seems that now those wacky "undecideds" come out of the woodwork, and being the simple minded souls that they are, will tend to go with the presumed winner. Alas ... I ramble.

I do wish us luck! ;)

29 posted on 10/05/2004 6:40:49 AM PDT by G.Mason (John Kerry: He's mad as a hatter, all right, but he sure has a nice way of saying it.)
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To: LS
Fraud is not minor. In Franklin County and Delaware County, Ohio tthere are more registered voters than adults. The elections office in Delaware is probably Republican, but Franklin County may be staffed by Democrats. One would expect, based on past experience, about 45,000 new registrations and 15,000 new voters - most of the motor voters don't vote. This time, there are 132,000 and counting new registered voters in Franklin County, and many of them have already voted absentee.

Although I am the only adult living at my address, chance are that there are several registered voters on the rolls at my address, as I live in a transient neighborhood. THe fact is, the county, and most counties in similar situations, don't have the budget to do the legwork to weed out fraudulent registrations. The GOP needs to do this, even though they will be attacked continuously by the Partisan Media Shills. If the GOP doesn't do this, a lot of absentee ballots are voting straight ticket DemonRAT, and we'll lose counties forever. Because onece the DemonRATS get in, we won't be able to challenge fraud effectively.

30 posted on 10/05/2004 6:47:37 AM PDT by bIlluminati (If guns are outlawed, can we use tanks?)
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To: stevek1
Updating my predictor map based on the recent results at electoral-vote.com...


31 posted on 10/05/2004 6:50:06 AM PDT by BaBaStooey (Emma Caulfield.....yum)
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To: wrbones

If I remember correctly, in 2000 this site was way off.

The race was much tighter than this site predicted.


32 posted on 10/05/2004 6:52:53 AM PDT by maridee
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To: uncbob
I agree with you 100%, but at the same time, I do remember how he came back in the 2000 primary, he ended up coming back strong.

We can pray and hope. But right now it does not look good.

I am so very disappointed in his very poor performance in the debate.
33 posted on 10/05/2004 7:03:40 AM PDT by maridee
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To: Dusty Rose

Registrations do not equal votes if the DemonRATS intend to play fair. They don't.

If the DemonRATS intended to play fair, we would not have more registered voters than adults in Cleveland and Columbus (Franklin County).

If the DemonRATS intended to play fair, we would not have 4 times as many absentee ballots requested in Ohio, compared to previous elections, concentrated heavily in DemonRATic counties, when the law is specific about who can vote absentee (most can't).

If the DemonRATS intended to play fair, they wouldn't be running commercials claiming that 1 million blacks were denied the right to vote - alhtough there may be 1 million convicted black felons, many of them can legally vote (it depends on the state) and many do legally vote.

This is worse than Chicago at the height of the Daley machine in the 1960s and 1970s. While sometimes there would be more voters than registered voters, and the dead did get their votes changed to absentee, for the most part, they were counting actual live voters, and did work the precincts persuading people. The 2004 voter drive has all been about registration, not persuasion. Why register someone to vote if you don't know which way they're going to vote? Unless you do know which way they're going to vote before they do?

The DemonRATs in 2000 stole New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I think they won Michigan before fraud, but we'll never know. They tried to steal an extra 1,000 votes in Florida, on top of the 240,000 they did successfully steal, but botched it, took away 3,500 Gore votes instead, and made history.

It reminded me of the time when two Chicago politicians, running in the primary, both rigged the machines, and to everybody's surprise, the election was close, because everybody had their votes counted correctly (actually, that story was in a book called The Election, Chicago style, but it could have happened).

In Pennsylvania in 2000, compare Bush and Santorum votes, precinct by precinct, and figure out why Santorum won, while Bush lost. In 2004 and subsequent, the DemonRATS are going to absentee vote stealing, because it's anonymous, and they can vote you straight party DemonRAT. In 2000, Philadelphia had as many registered voters as adults. So any net new registrations in Philadelphia are fraudulent, as are many current registrations.


34 posted on 10/05/2004 7:12:17 AM PDT by bIlluminati (If guns are outlawed, can we use tanks?)
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To: stevek1

Kerry can't win if he loses in Florida. Case closed. This election will be over by 9 P.M. The West Coast can be solid blue - it won't matter.


35 posted on 10/05/2004 7:17:47 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: SamAdams76

Not a naysayer, I just think we need to CAMPAIGN like we are 10 pts down in terms of our effort level. I don't want anyone to think we have this one based on this poll. We've GOT to energize the vote and show up en masse on election day.


36 posted on 10/05/2004 7:21:10 AM PDT by GeorgiaDawg
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To: SamAdams76

Not a naysayer, I just think we need to CAMPAIGN like we are 10 pts down in terms of our effort level. I don't want anyone to think we have this one based on this poll. We've GOT to energize the vote and show up en masse on election day.


37 posted on 10/05/2004 7:22:04 AM PDT by GeorgiaDawg
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To: Wallace T.

Enforcement of election fraud laws will be the basis of the impeachment of G.W. Bush in his second term.


38 posted on 10/05/2004 7:24:49 AM PDT by Crawdad (I cried because I had no shoes, until I met a man who had no class.)
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To: Crawdad

Sadly.


39 posted on 10/05/2004 7:25:14 AM PDT by Crawdad (I cried because I had no shoes, until I met a man who had no class.)
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To: Dusty Rose

I see what you are saying, but I worry that we might face a surprise here. The Socialist types will do anything to steal this election. They believe that their "ideals" are bigger than a free and fair election. They will pull out ALL of the stops on election day.


40 posted on 10/05/2004 9:45:48 AM PDT by CurlyBill (Voter Fraud is one of the primary campaign strategies of the Democrats!)
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To: Crawdad
It will take a major effort by John Ashcroft's Justice Department to take on Democratic Party electoral fraud in Florida and the "Rust Belt" states that are crucial to the President's re-election. Then there are the issues of massive voter fraud in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, and the San Francisco Bay area, which may be the reason that NY, IL, and CA have been Democratic "locks" for several Presidential election cycles.

In the past, Republicans have rolled over and played dead for the most part in the face of voter fraud. The earliest example occurred in 1960, when Richard Daley and Sam Giancana stole the IL presidential election and Nixon refused to challenge the results. (Daley, et. al., accomplished the fraud using old fashioned paper ballots.)

I have heard it seldom discussed, but I wonder if the 1976 election was not stolen from Gerald Ford. On election night that year, NY was undecided long after the West Coast polls had closed. Early the next morning, a surge of votes from three of New York City's boroughs tipped the scales to Jimmy Carter, giving him the Electoral College majority he needed. However, no challenge was made regarding NY's odd pattern.

If in the wee hours of November 3rd, sudden surges from Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Cleveland, Columbus, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia result in Kerry taking the respective states, we will be dealing with vote fraud on a scale unprecedented in American history. If Bush declines to challenge such results in the courts, it will radicalize a major portion of the population. Keep in mind that the MSM have essentially lost this segment of the population, which has turned to talk radio and the Internet for news. This is the portion of the population that is the most economically productive and from which most military personnel derive, especially those in combat units.

If we have fraud large enough to tip the election to Kerry and if President Bush follows in Nixon's footsteps in standing down from a challenge will not heal the nation, but destabilize it. Do we really want an American Fidel Castro or an American Oliver Cromwell?

41 posted on 10/05/2004 1:59:41 PM PDT by Wallace T.
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