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Australian Election
vanity | 9th October 2004 | naturalman1975

Posted on 10/09/2004 12:47:55 AM PDT by naturalman1975

I hesitate to suggest this, as I am fairly new around here, but I have noticed that there is quite a lot of interest in the Australian eleciton, so I thought I would make an offer here. I will be watching the election coverage and if people are interested, as the coverage proceeds, I can post updates in this thread, so people can follow what is happening in Australia.

Just an offer. Coverage starts in 15 minutes.

Oh and if any other Aussies want to post updates as well, of course, I wouldn't object. It's just I can see interest.


TOPICS: Australia/New Zealand; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: australia; coalitionofwilling; elections; howard; johnhoward; napalminthemorning; parliament; wot
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To: All

ABC Expert says that currently, we are tracking towards COALITION VICTORY! Highly unlikely Labor will win!!!


101 posted on 10/09/2004 2:24:29 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: naturalman1975

Also check out the live thread by Melbourne-based conservative blogger Murray:

http://silentrunning.tv/archives/004842.php

Looks like the ALP is going to have a really bad bad day. Signs indicate Victoria's Senate race is a 20% swing to the Coalition, and they are also losing votes in the House of Rep race. Now given that Victoria is the major left-wing state (the minor one being Tasmania), it means troubles for Latham.


102 posted on 10/09/2004 2:25:14 AM PDT by NZerFromHK (Controversially right-wing by NZ standards: unashamedly pro-conservative-America)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

Lib/Nat 42

ALP 15

Ind 3

swing to Lib/Nat of 2.56%


103 posted on 10/09/2004 2:25:36 AM PDT by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today’s.)
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To: naturalman1975

GREAT NEWS! Keep the updates flowing. ABC's streaming audio is full.


104 posted on 10/09/2004 2:26:02 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Why are we in Iraq? Just point the whiners here: http://www.massgraves.info)
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To: naturalman1975

Official Australian Electorial Commission tally

Seats needed to win government: 76

Lib/Nat: 46

ALP: 22

Ind: 3

swing to Lib/Nat of 2.48%


105 posted on 10/09/2004 2:28:54 AM PDT by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today’s.)
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To: naturalman1975

Wooo hooo! A defeat for the terrorists!


106 posted on 10/09/2004 2:28:59 AM PDT by ambrose (http://www.swiftvets.com)
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To: NZerFromHK

News keeps getting better! Take that lefties!


107 posted on 10/09/2004 2:29:06 AM PDT by Simmy2.5 (Kerry served in Vietnam. Really. Just as the Swift Boat Vets.)
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To: All

"At this stage of the evening it is looking very healthy for the Howard government, and it looks like they will be returned."

Lib 54
Nat 12
Lab 46

3.4% swing to Liberals - remaining fairly steady through counting.


108 posted on 10/09/2004 2:29:41 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: goldstategop

Don't worry, Australia is no Canada. For starters, they have no Quebec, and secondly, their "Ontario", Victoria, is only the second largest state, while the largest state (and Sydney) is moderate. Their "British Columbia" is the sixth or smallest state (third to fifth largest states are all conservative to the point of being red by US standards).

Given that even the ALP is to the right of Canada's Liberal Party, and that their equivalent of NDP (Democrats and Greens) are considered loony to be shunned en masse, Australia is still in safe hands. And best of all it looks like Latham will lose tonight.


109 posted on 10/09/2004 2:29:47 AM PDT by NZerFromHK (Controversially right-wing by NZ standards: unashamedly pro-conservative-America)
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To: naturalman1975

Official Australian Electorial Commission tally

Seats needed to win government: 76

Lib/Nat: 52

ALP: 30

Ind: 3

swing to Lib/Nat of 2.36%


110 posted on 10/09/2004 2:30:21 AM PDT by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today’s.)
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To: ambrose
Wooo hooo! A defeat for the terrorists!

And for Kerry's sister who's been down there working for a Labor win.

111 posted on 10/09/2004 2:30:28 AM PDT by Terp (Retired living in Philippines were the Mountains meet the Sea in the Land of Smiles)
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To: naturalman1975

76 seats needed to win government

Coalition currently looks to have 76 seats as certain or very likely, even before in doubt seats are counted!


112 posted on 10/09/2004 2:30:51 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: ambrose
Wooo hooo! A defeat for the terrorists!

And for kerry and the dems. Kerry's sister was there trying to defaet Howard.

113 posted on 10/09/2004 2:31:12 AM PDT by Dane (Trial lawyers are the tapeworms to wealth creating society)
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To: naturalman1975
ABC just said there's 69 already for the coalition. 13 gain needed for the Labour party or 8 loss for the coalition. NEITHER looks likely. Looks like a HOWARD victory is imminent.
114 posted on 10/09/2004 2:32:24 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Why are we in Iraq? Just point the whiners here: http://www.massgraves.info)
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To: All

I'm beginning to wonder if we should stop worrying about just winning and start hoping for an increased majority!


115 posted on 10/09/2004 2:33:28 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: naturalman1975

Official Australian Electorial Commission tally

Seats needed to win government: 76

Lib/Nat: 55

ALP: 12

Ind: 3

swing to Lib/Nat of 2.33%


116 posted on 10/09/2004 2:34:19 AM PDT by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today’s.)
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To: newzjunkey

Hopefully, November 2nd will be just as easy a victory here in the states.. Congrats Aussies on keeping your Conservative government coalition...


117 posted on 10/09/2004 2:34:37 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

"Getting close to that magic number of 76."

Then I can go to bed? :)

Is 76 like our 'needed electoral votes'? Is it the *combined* National & Liberal seats of 76 that we're looking for?


118 posted on 10/09/2004 2:34:49 AM PDT by zeppenwolf
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To: naturalman1975

Would this be the first time a party that supported the Coaltion of the Willing has had victory in an election? (with Aznar losing in Spain)


119 posted on 10/09/2004 2:35:14 AM PDT by ozguy
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To: naturalman1975

Just checked, with 16% in, looks like the good guys are winning big. Excellent!


120 posted on 10/09/2004 2:35:27 AM PDT by Citizen of the Savage Nation
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To: All

I'm going to have to start checking Dunkley - the current sitting member is a friend of mine, and I have no idea how he's going.


121 posted on 10/09/2004 2:35:29 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: zeppenwolf
Is it the *combined* National & Liberal seats of 76 that we're looking for?

Precisely. 150 total seats. 76 and the Coalition keeps control.

122 posted on 10/09/2004 2:36:06 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: zeppenwolf
Is 76 like our 'needed electoral votes'? Is it the *combined* National & Liberal seats of 76 that we're looking for?

Yes, if you think of it as similar to needed electoral votes, you're on the right track. If we definitely get 76, we've won. We want more - it's easier to govern with more. But 76 will do.

And yes, National is just as good as Liberal. 76 total.

123 posted on 10/09/2004 2:37:01 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: ozguy

Japanese PM took a hit, but still won. But this is the most important in terms of visibility that the press was hyping up all during the week.


124 posted on 10/09/2004 2:37:43 AM PDT by Pikamax
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To: ozguy

Just being announced on Channel Nine now that "the show is over, John Howard has been relected and 7/8 seat gain by Liberals"


125 posted on 10/09/2004 2:37:53 AM PDT by ozguy
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To: naturalman1975
Official Australian Electorial Commission tally

Seats needed to win government: 76

Lib/Nat: 55

ALP: 32 (sorry, fat fingered it)

Ind: 3

swing to Lib/Nat of 2.33%

126 posted on 10/09/2004 2:38:10 AM PDT by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today’s.)
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To: All

Channel 9 calling it for the Coalition. ABC not quite there yet.


127 posted on 10/09/2004 2:38:55 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: naturalman1975
It's all over.

No way Labor are going to win from here.

I'm in Hindmarsh which is a very marginal Liberal seat. Haven't seen any figures yet. Good luck for Dunckey mate!

128 posted on 10/09/2004 2:39:07 AM PDT by Piefloater
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To: naturalman1975

Official Australian Electorial Commission tally

Seats needed to win government: 76

Lib/Nat: 58

ALP: 38

Ind: 3

swing to Lib/Nat of 2.23%


129 posted on 10/09/2004 2:39:40 AM PDT by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today’s.)
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To: ozguy

Sweet. I saw that ABC had projected that Howard would retain his seat on their website.


130 posted on 10/09/2004 2:40:08 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: All

First Labor Member has conceded defeat in their seat (Member for Bass)


131 posted on 10/09/2004 2:40:46 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: zeppenwolf; GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

This is for the House of Representative seats (the lower house of Parliament of Australia). Whoever can win a majority of support forms government. There is also an upper house, the Senate, whose 1/3 of seats are up for election tonight (it is like the US Senate). The Senate can block any bills passed in the House of Reps and they did bring down a government before, in 1975 (and it was the only truly left-wing government Australia ever had! Gough Whitlam of Labor.). Tonight it seems even the Senate race tilts into the Coalition's favour.


132 posted on 10/09/2004 2:40:49 AM PDT by NZerFromHK (Controversially right-wing by NZ standards: unashamedly pro-conservative-America)
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To: Piefloater

Yes! Congrates to the Aussies! Looks like Kerry's sister had no effect there! Now, all we have to do is worry about is the Kerry here in the States.


133 posted on 10/09/2004 2:41:04 AM PDT by Simmy2.5 (Kerry served in Vietnam. Really. Just as the Swift Boat Vets.)
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To: All

COALITION VICTORY - 95% CERTAIN


134 posted on 10/09/2004 2:41:31 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: NZerFromHK

What's the current makeup of the Senate? Pro-coalition also?

Also, is there some sort of instant runoff system in Australia? I see a primary and then a preferences poll in the same result fields for each seat.


135 posted on 10/09/2004 2:42:36 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: naturalman1975

Official Australian Electorial Commission tally

Seats needed to win government: 76

Lib/Nat: 61

ALP: 40

Ind: 3

swing to Lib/Nat of 2.26%


136 posted on 10/09/2004 2:43:03 AM PDT by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today’s.)
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To: All

Nothing is absolutely certain yet, and will not be for some hours. Latham will delay conceding until he has no choice (quite properly - we don't want a situation like occurred in the US in 2000), but it's looking nearly impossible for Labor.


137 posted on 10/09/2004 2:43:11 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: naturalman1975
Just got a yahoo alert on my phone, they're calling it for Howard and the Liberals. Thank God. Now I can call my aussie cousin in Westchester and tell her she was dead wrong. One year out of Australia and she no longer can gauge aussie politics.


FREEPER (PARodrig) PAUL RODRIGUEZ FOR CONGRESS

138 posted on 10/09/2004 2:44:12 AM PDT by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat)
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To: naturalman1975

Official Australian Electorial Commission tally

Seats needed to win government: 76

Lib/Nat: 62

ALP: 41

Ind: 3

swing to Lib/Nat of 2.%


139 posted on 10/09/2004 2:44:37 AM PDT by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today’s.)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

Yes, we have preferential instant/runoff voting.

The Senate is split - it's likely to still be split. We can deal with that.

We'll start looking at the Senate later - it's important, but not as important as the House.


140 posted on 10/09/2004 2:44:55 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: Simmy2.5
Yes! Congrates to the Aussies!

Thanks.

This victory will be the best I have experienced.

G W Bush's victory on Nov 2 will be just as sweet for you.

141 posted on 10/09/2004 2:45:15 AM PDT by Piefloater
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To: All
From ABC

The Scoreboard

26.6% counted.
Last updated Sat Oct 9 07:42PM EST
Party %
Vote
Swing Won Likely Total In
Doubt
Change Predict
Liberal 40.7 +3.3 positive swingpositive swing 56 4 60 12 0
National 5.9 +0.3 positive swingpositive swing 12 0 12 1 0
Labor 37.7 -0.2 negative swingnegative swing 46 1 47 14 0
Greens 7.3 +2.3 positive swingpositive swing 0 0 0 1 0
Democrats 1.5 -3.9 negative swingnegative swing 0 0 0 0 0
One Nation 1.0 -3.3 negative swingnegative swing 0 0 0 0 0
Others 5.9 +1.5 positive swingpositive swing 3 0 3 0 0

142 posted on 10/09/2004 2:45:58 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: Piefloater
This victory will be the best I have experienced.

Hear! Hear!

I'm still not ready to call it myself, I couldn't bear to be wrong. But this has mattered more than any other election in my life.

143 posted on 10/09/2004 2:46:40 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: naturalman1975

Still too early to call but I'm beginning to smile... :)


144 posted on 10/09/2004 2:47:32 AM PDT by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today’s.)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

Sorry, I have no idea about the runoff system as I only spent my life in a colonial Hong Kong (which meant no election to decide government) and New Zealand (a pure unitary state with a unicameral Parliament - First Past the Post system first - same as US House of Reps' election, and now Mixed Members Proportional Representation - which is the German Bundestag election method). What does it mean in US election context?

About the Australian Senate, it is elected by using STV if my memory is correct - which is a sort-of proportional representation. If my memory is correct, it has long been a tie-up between the Coalition and Labor, and the minor parties call shots in balance of power. The bad news is both minor parties are Democrats and Greens i.e. loony left. That was the situation before the election.


145 posted on 10/09/2004 2:47:41 AM PDT by NZerFromHK (Controversially right-wing by NZ standards: unashamedly pro-conservative-America)
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To: All
Oh dear, dear, poor little diddums. Labor MPs complaining about 'negative campaigning'.

This from the party lead by a man who called the Prime Minister an 'Arse Licker'.

146 posted on 10/09/2004 2:48:03 AM PDT by naturalman1975 (Sure, give peace a chance - but si vis pacem, para bellum.)
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To: naturalman1975

Official Australian Electorial Commission tally

Seats needed to win government: 76

Lib/Nat: 64

ALP: 40

Ind: 3

swing to Lib/Nat of 2.18%


147 posted on 10/09/2004 2:48:13 AM PDT by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today’s.)
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To: naturalman1975

Maybe they got that line from Kerry's Sister....sounds a lot like Democrat insults!!


148 posted on 10/09/2004 2:50:02 AM PDT by Primetimedonna
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To: naturalman1975

Scary! ABC is covering our debate! Also the Afghan election. Talking about Rumsfield. Fun :P


149 posted on 10/09/2004 2:50:30 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Why are we in Iraq? Just point the whiners here: http://www.massgraves.info)
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To: newzjunkey

What were their Debate comments?


150 posted on 10/09/2004 2:51:14 AM PDT by Primetimedonna
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