Skip to comments.Australian Election
Posted on 10/09/2004 12:47:55 AM PDT by naturalman1975
I hesitate to suggest this, as I am fairly new around here, but I have noticed that there is quite a lot of interest in the Australian eleciton, so I thought I would make an offer here. I will be watching the election coverage and if people are interested, as the coverage proceeds, I can post updates in this thread, so people can follow what is happening in Australia.
Just an offer. Coverage starts in 15 minutes.
Oh and if any other Aussies want to post updates as well, of course, I wouldn't object. It's just I can see interest.
What does a reduced result mean?
It's going to be hard to think of the Liberals as the good guys!!!!! Thank you, too, for the education!!
Michelle O'Byrne, Labor Member for Bass - says she is still hoping, is used to long counts (last time it took ten days!). Very close seat.
Prime Minister visited seat this week, and announced popular Forestry policy.
Reduced result = winning with a smaller amount than last time. Labor will hold the seat, but are getting less votes than at the last election, which suggests closer seats may change hands.
Very early count shows 18 seats Coalition, 8 Labor.
Nick Minchin, Liberal Minister, BIG SMILE ON FACE, things Liberals will win at least one Tasmanian seat.
Electorates ordered by recency of update
Last updated Sat Oct 9 06:26PM EST
|18:26||0.4||Gwydir||NAT||14.9||66.2||1.3% to NAT|
|18:26||0.1||Calwell||ALP||15.2||39.9||5.1% to LIB|
|18:26||27.8||Bass||ALP||2.1||52.8||4.9% to LIB||LIB GAIN|
|18:26||36.8||Franklin||ALP||8.0||55.8||2.2% to LIB||ALP RETAIN|
|18:25||0.1||Eden-Monaro||LIB||1.7||55.8||4.1% to LIB|
|18:25||1.0||Gilmore||LIB||14.6||63.9||0.7% to ALP|
|18:25||0.2||Lyne||NAT||11.2||66.3||5.1% to NAT|
|18:25||0.3||Parkes||NAT||8.7||66.0||7.3% to NAT|
|18:25||0.1||Richmond||NAT||1.7||53.5||5.1% to ALP|
|18:25||0.2||Corio||ALP||8.5||57.4||1.1% to LIB|
|18:25||0.1||Gippsland||NAT||2.6||58.3||5.8% to NAT|
|18:25||0.5||Indi||LIB||10.7||64.2||3.5% to LIB|
|18:25||48.8||Braddon||ALP||6.0||50.9||6.9% to LIB||LIB GAIN|
|18:25||43.8||Lyons||ALP||8.2||53.5||4.7% to LIB||ALP RETAIN|
|18:24||0.1||Maranoa||NAT||15.4||69.7||4.3% to NAT|
|18:24||46.3||Denison||ALP||14.3||63.5||0.8% to LIB||ALP RETAIN|
|18:23||0.8||Calare||OTH||25.0||59.4||15.6% to NAT|
|18:23||0.1||Cowper||NAT||4.7||52.1||2.6% to ALP|
|18:23||0.6||Riverina||NAT||19.9||70.8||0.9% to NAT|
|18:23||0.1||Wannon||LIB||9.2||61.9||2.6% to LIB|
|18:22||0.1||Kingsford Smith||ALP||8.9||55.9||3.0% to LIB|
|18:22||0.1||Page||NAT||2.8||56.1||3.3% to NAT|
|18:22||0.2||Bendigo||ALP||3.5||64.0||10.5% to ALP|
|18:22||0.1||Blair||LIB||6.6||60.1||3.5% to LIB|
|18:22||0.2||Groom||LIB||15.1||65.2||0.1% to LIB|
|18:21||0.2||Hunter||ALP||10.9||68.8||7.9% to ALP|
|18:21||0.2||Paterson||LIB||1.4||57.8||6.3% to LIB|
|18:21||0.1||McMillan||LIB||2.8||59.8||6.9% to LIB|
|18:20||0.2||Bradfield||LIB||21.2||79.2||8.1% to LIB|
|18:20||0.1||Murray||LIB||21.9||75.8||3.9% to LIB|
|18:18||0.1||Charlton||ALP||6.7||56.0||0.6% to LIB|
What you call Precincts, I think are referred to as Booths here - none hold out deliberately, but some inner city ones do tend to take longer to report.
Skip the vegemite and make Roo-B-Que.
Sure - they wait to see how many ballot boxes to stuff.
Too many seats should start coming in soon, so I will start focusing on broad trends at this point. Early results looking reasonably positive.
Braddon and Bass in Tasmania virtually certainly to have gone to Liberal party.
Net result for Tasmania - 2 seats gained by Coalition.
Eden-Monaro - seat that has matched every Australian election result since 1972, is currently too close to call.
That's great news. From 5-0 Labor to 3-2 Labor. Where could Labor possibly make this up? What's your term for a particular seat? I know it's "riding" in Canada.
Referred to as 'Seat' or 'Electorate' here.
Labor will hope for gains in Queensland.
Here's to hoping for good news from down under.
Good news is most welcome.
I keep strange hours :^)
Besides, I have tomorrow off...I can sleep whenever I want.
How goes the election?
It's sure hard to root for "liberals", but I'm trying!!
Howard = Liberal/Coalition
Latham = Labor (Labour?)
As far as the acronyms in this chart thingie:
ALP = "Aussie Labor Party" ?
LIB = Liberal (Howard)
NAT = National, the party that is in coalition with the Liberals to form goverment.
LIB = Liberal Party of Australian
ALB = Australian Labor Party
I think "NAT" is The Nationals -- if I'm reading this right, they're Howard's partners in the Coalition government. We want The Nationals to do well, along with the Liberals.
GRN = Green
DEM = Democrats
FF = Family First
OTH = Other/Independent
Only GRN and OTH currently have House of Reps seats, out of the minor groups.
Exactly - a National Party win is just as good as a Liberal Party win.
Basically Liberals are City Conservatives, Nationals are Country Conservatives.
Nick Minchin (Liberal Minister) thinks a hung parliament (neither party having an absolute majority) is the best result Labor can hope for.
Prime Ministers own seat may be in some very slight danger - slight possibility (very slight) that we could end up with a Liberal government, with the Prime Minister having to leave because he didn't get elected himself.
|Coalition||Votes||Percentage %||Swing %|
|Australian Labor Party||158,732||47.18||-3.26|
|This Election||Last Election|
|Australian Labor Party||0||0||0||0||0||3||0||0||3||65|
|CLP - The Territory Party||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||0||1|
Analysts on both ABC and Channel 9 saying already there is a swing to the coaltion
Beginning to look hard for Labor to gain necessary seats for victory
Coalition vote seems to be up 3.8%
Labor looks to need to win 15 extra mainland seats to win.
Power failure means they can't show us all their fancy graphics!
Early figures on mainland (oh, need to explain - Tasmania is an island, everything else is the mainland) showing possible Coalition gains.
According to the ABC site listed earlier, after 4.4% counted.
The coalition have 64 seats (56 won and 8 likely). Labor et al have 39 seats.
Live Results and Predictions for the 2004 Australian Federal Election.
Last updated Sat Oct 9 07:05PM EST
Does Howard run independently, or is his position decided by the majority? If he runs independently, when do those returns begin?
Again, sorry for the lack of knowledge. I appreciate you having the patience to educate me!
Greens may have lost their only lower house seat to Labor - first likely Labor gain.
Looking good right now.. 67Lib/Nat-40Lab-1G-3O
He runs at the same time.
The Prime Minister is a normal Member of Parliament (in this case the Member for Bennelong) and can lose his seat like any other MP.
The Prime Minister is not directly elected - rather he is the Leader of the Party that controls the House of Representatives.
It is theoretically possible for the Prime Minister to lose office, by failing to win his own seat, even if his party wins. It's unlikely - but it can happen.
Isn't Labour supposed to gain seats, not lose them? Even though that doesn't mean they would win (thankfully), wasn't that the expectation coming in?
It would be so funny if Labour actually lost seats. Must be the Kerry effect. :-P
Do you know what seat is his?
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.75%
That was expected to start with, yes. It's looked less likely for a few days now.
The Prime Minister is the Member for Bennelong
Once again, my thanks!
Last updated Sat Oct 9 07:14PM EST
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.69%
Wasn't Howard supposedly beaten badly in a debate?
ABCs expert thinks on current figures (still early), we'll end up with a similar result to last time - very few seats changing hands, government remaining in power.
ABC has Lib/Nats - 68
ALP - 42
Other - 4
Channel 9 has Lib/Nat - 47
ALP - 22
Other - 2
76 seats needed for victory
According to some experts, yes. I think he lost - but I don't think he was badly beaten.
|ABC Predicted final result: LIB RETAIN|
|4.8% swing to ALP|
|Bold identifies the Sitting MP|
|John Winston Howard||LIB||6,502||48.9||-3.5|
|John Winston Howard||LIB||2935||48.9||-4.8|
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.63%