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SRBI/Time U.S. Poll: Bush 51%, Kerry 46% [Includes "complete poll" file.]
The Center for Public Opinion and Democracy ^ | 23OCT04 | CPOD

Posted on 10/22/2004 11:16:47 PM PDT by familyop

(CPOD) Oct. 23, 2004 – George W. Bush is leading the United States presidential race, according to a poll by SRBI Public Affairs for Time. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbent George W. Bush in the 2004 election, while 46 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry.

Two per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader, and one per cent is undecided. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Support for Bush increased by three per cent in a week, while backing for Kerry dropped by one per cent. In early October, the Republican held a one per cent lead over the Democrat.

Polling Data

Now suppose the 2004 election for President were being held today, and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican; John Kerry, the Democrat; or Ralph Nader, running as an independent. For whom would you vote, Bush, Kerry, or Nader?
(Including leaners, excluding refusals)

 

Oct. 19-21

Oct. 14-15

Oct. 6-7

George W. Bush (R)

51%

48%

48%

John Kerry (D)

46%

47%

47%

Ralph Nader (I)

2%

3%

4%

Other candidate

--

--

1%

Don’t know

1%

2%

1%

Source: Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs / Time
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 771 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 19 to Oct. 21, 2004. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

Other

poll highlights: Bush approval at 53 per cent. Economy and war on terror are the most important issues for voters Bush seen as better candidate to deal with moral values issues, the situation in Iraq, the war on terrorism, providing leadership, taxes and being commander in chief. Kerry regarded as better for health care and understanding the needs of the average American. Both candidates almost even on economy.

Complete Poll (PDF)


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush; data; election; gwb2004; kerry; kewl; numbers; poll; polls; president; timemag
Number crunchers, notice the "Complete Poll" PDF at the end.

And for those of you who like to see electoral analysis maps.

http://presidentelect.org/e2004.html

1 posted on 10/22/2004 11:16:47 PM PDT by familyop
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To: ambrose; Cableguy

What is this, three different polls where Bush is above 50% and Kerry can't break through 46%?


2 posted on 10/22/2004 11:19:34 PM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: RWR8189

We are looking at a 52-46 election.....


3 posted on 10/22/2004 11:22:19 PM PDT by Republic Rocker
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To: familyop
Kerry regarded as better for ... understanding the needs of the average American.

How, in the name of God, do most people think that the laziest Senator, a giggolo twice over and currently married to a billionaire understands "average" Americans better than Bush???

4 posted on 10/22/2004 11:23:28 PM PDT by pierrem15
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To: RWR8189
What is this, three different polls where Bush is above 50% and Kerry can't break through 46%?

Bingo! Kerry seems to hit a ceiling at around 46% of the vote. Bush's floor seems to be in the 47-48% range (still better than Kerry's ceiling), but lately he is consistently hitting 50% and better. In the Washington Post tracking poll, he has been at 50% or better for about a week. I am predicting that the final result will be something like 52-53% for President Bush and only 45-46% for Kerry -- pretty close to the current Gallup numbers and to this latest Time poll.

5 posted on 10/22/2004 11:24:21 PM PDT by kesg
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To: familyop

Good, let President Bush's number keep rising. I am working like it is a close one but I am praying for a Huge Bush/Cheney Victory.


6 posted on 10/22/2004 11:25:07 PM PDT by Heinz 57 (Yes I'm Mixed Breed but not mixed up. I am all AMERICAN and proud of it. God, I love this country)
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To: RWR8189

I agree. I alway's thought Kerry can't get over 46% even with voter fraud.


7 posted on 10/22/2004 11:25:10 PM PDT by Brimack34
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To: Republic Rocker
We are looking at a 52-46 election.....


8 posted on 10/22/2004 11:25:50 PM PDT by kesg
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To: pierrem15

How, in the name of God, do most people think that the laziest Senator, a giggolo twice over and currently married to a billionaire understands "average" Americans better than Bush???


I don't know. But he is way, way too high in some of these state polls. We are a dumbed down nation. Shallow thinkers abound. One of them makes a complete sentence such as "It would be better to elect anybody but Bush." and the rest think he or she is a high priest or prophet.
What shall we do?
Soldier on.


9 posted on 10/22/2004 11:28:51 PM PDT by SolomoninSouthDakota
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To: Brimack34

The aspect of fraud is what bothers me too. Only a huge GOP victory will lessen the chances of it, but I still worry that the dems will litigate and cheapen yet another institution (even more than they already have).


10 posted on 10/22/2004 11:28:54 PM PDT by Heinz 57 (Yes I'm Mixed Breed but not mixed up. I am all AMERICAN and proud of it. God, I love this country)
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To: familyop

§ Likely voters reported party identifications are: 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, 23%
Independents.
§ Registered voters party affiliations are: 35% Democrat, 33% Republican, 23% Independent.

I'd say this is a pretty accurate poll


11 posted on 10/22/2004 11:29:55 PM PDT by tdice7
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To: familyop

It's getting harder and harder for the media to spin this as a close race.


12 posted on 10/22/2004 11:30:23 PM PDT by JohnBDay
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To: familyop
These are really good numbers. Approval rating at 53%, polling better than Kerry on tax plan, handling Iraq, the economy and of course still leading on terrorism and leadership. Top three issues, Iraq, terrorism and the economy and Bush is leading in all three (well almost a push on the economy, but substantially ahead on the other two issues).
13 posted on 10/22/2004 11:32:51 PM PDT by Dolphy (It's not a plan, it's an echo)
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To: Republic Rocker
We are looking at a 52-46 election.....

No, we're looking at a 54% to 58% vote for Bush, low 40 percentile for Kerry.
14 posted on 10/22/2004 11:33:25 PM PDT by counterpunch (The CouNTeRPuNcH Collection - www.counterpunch.us)
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To: Republic Rocker

I'm starting to get the warm-and-fuzzies about all of this; though I won't relax until I see Dan Rather looking like someone just ran over his dog as he reads that final CBS News projection on Election Night.


15 posted on 10/22/2004 11:35:37 PM PDT by Redcloak (Vikings plundered my last tag line.)
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To: tdice7

I also saw that, but I don't get it... 35%+35%+23%=93%... there can't be that many Greens and Libertarians. Maybe the other 7% are refusals?

In 2000, VNU reported 39% Dem, 35% Rep, and 27% Independent. Probably reasonable to assume a 4% shift from Dem to Independent after 9/11.


16 posted on 10/22/2004 11:37:16 PM PDT by nj26
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To: Republic Rocker

I agree...that should put Bush between 330 and 350 EVs...

If it ain't close...they can't cheat...


17 posted on 10/22/2004 11:40:13 PM PDT by Keith (JOHN KERRY...IN VIOLATION OF ARTICLE III SECTION 3 OF THE US CONSTITUTION)
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To: Republic Rocker

I hope you're right. If so then that should be enough to overcome all the dead, non-citizen, and multiple voters the Democrats will enjoy. At least so says John Fund of the WSJournal who just released a book on vote fraud.

It would also be more than enough to carry the electoral college safely into Bush's category.


18 posted on 10/22/2004 11:45:47 PM PDT by Aetius
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To: Redcloak
I think you have to look at this state by state......

The red is not New Hanpshire, but proportional votes from Maine.



19 posted on 10/22/2004 11:45:55 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (A Proud member of Free Republic ~~The New Face of the Fourth Estate since 1996.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Another one from Realclearpolitic

____________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________

RealClearPolitics Electoral Count
National Polls: 3 Way Race | Head-to-Head | Chart: 3-Way RCP Average | RCP Electoral Count | Battleground State Polls

Send This Page to a Friend

*Maine's 2nd Congressional District is currently list as a "toss up," which subtracts 1 electoral vote from Kerry's overall total.

20 posted on 10/22/2004 11:48:58 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (A Proud member of Free Republic ~~The New Face of the Fourth Estate since 1996.)
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To: Keith
If it ain't close...they can't cheat...

There will still be litigation prompted by the DNC. The groundwork was set in Florida in '00.

It's petty and un-American, however removing W's from all computer keyboards in the White house is too.

21 posted on 10/22/2004 11:51:12 PM PDT by EGPWS
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To: Keith

Better yet, if it ain't close they'll get caught cheating.


22 posted on 10/22/2004 11:51:43 PM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: pierrem15

That is what I was thinking. Perhaps it reflects that a lot of people don't know much about Kerry's backround.


23 posted on 10/23/2004 12:18:43 AM PDT by AndyTheBear (Disastrous social experimentation is the opiate of elitist snobs.)
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To: Keith

But what about Ohio? Even if Bush gets over 330 EVs, how can he possibly win without Ohio? And that new Scripps poll shows Kerry has Ohio locked up...</sarcasm off>


24 posted on 10/23/2004 12:21:09 AM PDT by AndyTheBear (Disastrous social experimentation is the opiate of elitist snobs.)
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To: familyop
I want this to be a Bush landslide so that Michael Moore has to be put on a suicide watch. Then, I'll volunteer to be the one to watch him commit suicide.

Don't worry, I'll videotape it for the rest of you.

25 posted on 10/23/2004 1:27:53 AM PDT by HHFi
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To: pierrem15

Good question. I think it is because Kerry says it repeats the lie over and over again.


26 posted on 10/23/2004 2:15:55 AM PDT by ItisaReligionofPeace (I'm from the government and I'm here to help.)
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