Rasmussen Reports Kerry 48% Bush 48%

Rasmussen Reports ^

[Rokke]

Rasmussen is just too easy. Here was my prediction for today from yesterday....

What do I expect tomorrow...Bush almost always outpolls Kerry on Mondays. His 2 day average moving into tomorrow is 46%. Kerry's is 48%. Tomorrow, I expect both candidates to poll roughly even at 47%. But more importantly, by Friday, I expect Bush to be ahead by 2%.

I show the raw data today to be 43.7/48.3/51.4 Bush, 48.1/47.8/47.5 Kerry. Tuesday's are usually good polling days for Kerry, so tomorrow will probably remain close to a draw. In related news, since Zogby is leaking his daily numbers it is easy to predict his outcomes. He's had Bush at 49/51/46 Bush, 46/43/48 Kerry. Today's Zogby rolling average shows Bush 49 Kerry 46. That translates to a raw data day of 51 Bush, 47 Kerry. Amazingly similar to Rasmussen. And I just read that Rasmussen said his poll will look like Zogby's later this week. Do you think they are in cahoots?

[rocklobster11]

Before all these polls and when there was just Gallup, if candidate reached 50%, it was all good. Bush has done that on a number of occassions. Kerry has bad internals in these polls, and believe it or not, I believe the Weekly Reader poll. Those kids reflect the parents. Parents seem to be strongly for Bush

The weekly reader poll is correct, and it matches the polling that shows that Bush leads by a good margin with married people while Kerry leads with singles. The question is how the turnout will be with married vs. single people.

[neutrality]

It basically has PoliPundit endorsing SurveyUSA. Anyway, basically their whole track record and comparisons to other pollster are available on their site. But apparently this isn't good enough.

[MNJohnnie]

I'm not sure how you can dismiss their track record so quickly, but here's what Polipundit says about SurveyUSA:
http://polipundit.com/wp-comments-popup.php?p=1963&c=1


Opps missed "the Norms" part. My apologies but as I said, I cannot find any independent record of their Historical accuracy by groups like Harris. I also find it interesting that their polls consistently show Kerry doing better then any of the other polls. I also find it interesting that Real Clear Politics doesn't use Survey USA numbers but does use the Democrat ARG group's numbers.

[MNJohnnie]

It basically has PoliPundit endorsing SurveyUSA. Anyway, basically their whole track record and comparisons to other pollster are available on their site. But apparently this isn't good enough.



Yes because they are pollster for hire. They aren't going to post any results that show where they blew it. Basically you are saying they are great pollsters because they say they are great pollster. I am merely registering my doubts about a Polling group that I cannot verify reliability nor who is paying for their polls. After all, it does say right on their website that they conduct the poll FOR people. Kinda of makes a difference if a Repub or Demo group designed the poll they are using.

[madison46]

Married people turn out more I believe. JMHO

[gswilder]

My guess is ABC/WaPo has it tied today. Thur/Fri will be a real indicator of a real trend or not. Most of the national are showing a small tightening, but not much. Gallup closed from 8 to 6 this week (+2 Kerry). It may be close in the end, and there is a chance Kerry might pull it off. But if I were betting any signifcant money, it would be on Bush. And my estimate based on ALL the polls, is Bush wins with over 300EV's. Probably 4-7% nationally.

Look back over the last 2.5 months. Bush has been tied or up in around 60 national polls. Only about 3 have shown Kerry with a slight lead, and only for a week at most. All the 3-4 major tracking polls have had Bush ahead or tied over the last 4 weeks. Exception being Monday for WaPo and Ras. That Kerry blip will roll off by Thur/Fri. So the odds are that Bush will win. Let me put it this way. If all the polls were exactly reversed, what would those of us be saying here on FR? We'd be talking about who the republican nominee would be in 2008 to run against Kerry. Does anyone want to revserse the polls? Would you be less worried? I don't think so.

[HamiltonJay]

Pro Kerry weekend polling losing their influence on the rolling average... bush back up 2 or 3 (or more) by Wednesday.

[neutrality]

RCP certainly lists Survey USA polls. Do you mean they don't include them in his averages? I'm not sure if I agree that Kerry overall does better in their polls. In some states this is correct, but in some states they are more favorable to W. Some examples:

Iowa B+6 (avg +3.5)

Missouri B+6 (avg +5.3)

Nevada B+7 (avg +5.8)

Colorado B+7 (avg +4.8)

Arkansas B+5 (avg +2.0)

[Hermann the Cherusker]

They are our estimate, and they are close enough to be useful.

[Petronski]

It could be argued either way.

[Owen]

Owen's Theory of The Kerry Saturday Sample Bump.

Hunting season opened in a lot of states this past weekend.

Now then, can I have a government grant to perform the additional research this theory needs? :)