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Rasmussen Tracking Poll Should Show +3 Lead For Bush Tommorrow-Oct28 (Oct 26 One day sample Bush+5)
Rasmussen + my analysis ^ | 10/27/04 | MillardFilmore

Posted on 10/27/2004 4:08:30 PM PDT by MillardFillmore

BUSH LIKELY LEAD by 5 POINTS in Rasmussen in Oct 26 one day sample! See comment below for my analysis

Wednesday October 27, 2004--Six days to go and President Bush has regained a slim lead in his bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48.8% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47.1%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 10272004; poll; polls; rasmussen; tracking
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BUSH LIKELY LEAD by 5 POINTS in Rasmussen in Oct 26 one day sample! See below for analysis

Today's Rasmussen Oct 27 (based on Oct 24, Oct 25, Oct 26 samples) shows Bush 48.8 Kerry 47.1 (Bush + 1.7)

Rasmussen also indicated the other day in his commentary that Kerry lead in each of the one day weekend samples on Oct 22, 23 and 24 (shown as three day average of a two point lead for Kerry (46.4B to 48.4K) on Oct 25

I Designed a linear programming excel model to exactly match the rasmussen model's three day averages, incorprate what he said the other day and then estimate what each individual day's sample was.

Based on this I estimate the following one day results

Oct 26 B50.7 K45.5 Bush +4.9

Oct 25 B48.7 K48.3 Bush +0.9

Oct 24 B46.8 K47.5 Kerry +0.7

Expect tommorrow's (Oct 28) 3 day rasmussen (Oct 25,26,27) to show a larger lead than today's

PROBABLY BUSH +3 POINTS or more as the Bush+4.9% day and the Bush+0.9% day will still be in the sample but the Kerry +0.7% sample from Oct 24th will no longer be in the 3 day average

1 posted on 10/27/2004 4:08:32 PM PDT by MillardFillmore
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To: MillardFillmore

Is there an election coming up or something? School board? Town mayor? Did I miss something?


2 posted on 10/27/2004 4:11:19 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: MillardFillmore


Bush is sweeping the midwest and south..

This is the most confidence I have had in WEEKS..

The low-blow from the NYT had a minimal 1 or 2% effect at most, and the last 5-6 days will be backfire..

The new Bush ad is BRILLIANT and the best one of the entire election.


Kerry is in DEEP DEEP TROUBLE and the DUmmies don't even see it coming.


I AM GLOWING RIGHT NOW WITH CONFIDENCE.. WE ARE GONNA WIN THIS SUCKER!!!!!!!


3 posted on 10/27/2004 4:12:04 PM PDT by Josh in PA
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To: MillardFillmore

good theory
I was thinking the same thing, depends on today's polling though, and how this missing weapons/explosives is being taken in.


4 posted on 10/27/2004 4:12:19 PM PDT by za_claws
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To: MillardFillmore

don't think so. I think Rasmussen will show it somewhere around Bush 49.5 Kerry 47.1--a 2.4% Bush lead.


5 posted on 10/27/2004 4:13:45 PM PDT by Illinois Rep
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To: MillardFillmore

So Bush has generally done well on Tuesdays? That's good news.


6 posted on 10/27/2004 4:13:50 PM PDT by Brett66 (Dan Rather, the most busted man in America.)
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To: MillardFillmore

Poll Lie, Markets Don't:

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm


7 posted on 10/27/2004 4:14:28 PM PDT by The_Republican
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To: Josh in PA
JWALSH)& Tracking Poll:

I track Ghengis Johnny.

He is defending Hawaii, New Jersey, Michigan, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Iowa. He has abandoned WV, Arkanas, Nevada, Colorado and now he is leaving Florida.

Bush is attacking in same.

Thats all I need to know.

8 posted on 10/27/2004 4:14:42 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: Rokke; Dales; Hermann the Cherusker

Comments & discussion?


9 posted on 10/27/2004 4:15:42 PM PDT by Petronski (A Monday morning quarterback has never led any team to victory.)
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To: za_claws

The explosives "issue" is already backfiring. Clarke has stated publicly that no one knows when the explosives went missing and McCurry said the same today. Apparently, Kerry doesn't even know what his staffers are saying.


10 posted on 10/27/2004 4:15:51 PM PDT by bushisdamanin04
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To: MillardFillmore

If Rasmussen hadn't been soooooo far off in 2000 I would be ecstactic!


11 posted on 10/27/2004 4:16:00 PM PDT by BunnySlippers ("F" Stands for FLIP-FLOP ...)
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To: The_Republican
Poll Lie, Markets Don't:

Markets (especially small ones) can be manipulated.

12 posted on 10/27/2004 4:16:23 PM PDT by Petronski (A Monday morning quarterback has never led any team to victory.)
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To: wolf24

Oooh Oooh look at me! I designed a linear programming excel model! I designed a linear programming excel model!

Think you're better than me?


13 posted on 10/27/2004 4:16:33 PM PDT by BCrago66
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To: jwalsh07

It... Is... OVER..


DUmmies.. Get ready for FOUR MORE YEARS of one of the greatest president's ever elected.. George Walker Bush!!


14 posted on 10/27/2004 4:16:39 PM PDT by Josh in PA
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To: jwalsh07

He's defending Minnesota!!!!!!! Enough said.


15 posted on 10/27/2004 4:16:47 PM PDT by Gumdrop
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To: jwalsh07

My current total Bush 53 Al Qaeda 46 Bush 367 EV's


16 posted on 10/27/2004 4:17:34 PM PDT by TheExploited (R-Illinois)
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To: jwalsh07

I was talking to my daughter in law today. They are stationed in Hawaii. She told me the absentee votes did not arrive in time for military voting. Grrrrrrrrr


17 posted on 10/27/2004 4:17:49 PM PDT by small voice in the wilderness (Quick, act casual. If they sense scorn and ridicule, they'll flee..)
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To: Gumdrop

How could I have left out Minnesoota!!!!!


18 posted on 10/27/2004 4:17:55 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: Gumdrop

Is Kerry scheduled to be in Florida in the next few days?


19 posted on 10/27/2004 4:18:06 PM PDT by bushisdamanin04
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To: BunnySlippers

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the World of the Imploding Kerry Campaign!


20 posted on 10/27/2004 4:18:23 PM PDT by Jose Roberto
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To: Josh in PA
The new Bush ad is BRILLIANT and the best one of the entire election.

which new Bush ad is that? here in Cali i see nada... except what they show on cable news channels now and then...

21 posted on 10/27/2004 4:18:40 PM PDT by latina4dubya
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To: small voice in the wilderness

The good news is that Hawaii won't make or break Bush.


22 posted on 10/27/2004 4:19:17 PM PDT by bushisdamanin04
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To: latina4dubya

www.georgewbush.com

Right on the front page.


23 posted on 10/27/2004 4:19:33 PM PDT by Josh in PA
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To: latina4dubya

Same here in CT latina. We are ad deprived. I'm gonna get the ACLU to file on our behalf.:-}


24 posted on 10/27/2004 4:20:10 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: Petronski; Illinois Rep

I think Illinois Rep has it right. Bush will be at 49ish% and Kerry at 47ish%.


25 posted on 10/27/2004 4:20:51 PM PDT by Rokke
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To: BCrago66

Ich weiß, was Sie von sprechen. Diese Rede linearer Programmierung auszeichnen Modelle sich verwirrt mich!


26 posted on 10/27/2004 4:21:10 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: Illinois Rep
If you are right (if Bush leads by +2.4% tomorrow then that means that Bush's lead would be only 1.4% tonight Oct 27

Oct 27 B+1.4%

Oct 26 B+4.9%

Oct 25 b+0.9%

Three day average B+2.4%.

Either way we apparently agree Bush's lead will rise tommorrow (Oct 27) from current 1.7% (Oct 26) to between 2.4% (you) or 3.0% (me)

27 posted on 10/27/2004 4:22:17 PM PDT by MillardFillmore
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To: Petronski

But they don't lie....


28 posted on 10/27/2004 4:22:36 PM PDT by The_Republican
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To: bushisdamanin04

I think Paul Bremmer blew the whole thing out of the water on Fox about an hour ago.


29 posted on 10/27/2004 4:23:30 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: bushisdamanin04

"The explosives "issue" is already backfiring. Clarke has stated publicly that no one knows when the explosives went missing and McCurry said the same today. Apparently, Kerry doesn't even know what his staffers are saying."

you know & I know it ...but 6 days and the MSMedia, I don't trust them, they still have influence, and I can see them holding out the truth, and spinning this for kerry for 6 days......


30 posted on 10/27/2004 4:24:28 PM PDT by za_claws
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To: jwalsh07

i heard the rumor of kerry abandoning florida, but haven't had the chance to read about it.

anyone have a link?


thanks :)


31 posted on 10/27/2004 4:25:14 PM PDT by cdbull23
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To: rushmom

Yeah, but it won't get much coverage from the pro-Kerry media, which is about 90-95% of it.


32 posted on 10/27/2004 4:25:15 PM PDT by bushisdamanin04
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To: Josh in PA
www.georgewbush.com

Right on the front page.

you are right... TCTME all over again... that was the most touching part of his RNC speech... he wore his emotions on his sleeve...

33 posted on 10/27/2004 4:25:51 PM PDT by latina4dubya
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To: MillardFillmore

You and I have different numbers for Ras..

I show the following:

Sunday's raw data
B 48.3 K 47.8
Monday
B 51.4 K 47.5
Tuesday
B 46.7 K 46

3 day average
B 48.8 K 47.1

I think tonights raw data will probably be this

B 50.5 Kerry 47.8

My raw data and yours is off a bit...at any rate Rasmussen will weight it to reflect a closer race than 5 points.--lessons of 2000


34 posted on 10/27/2004 4:27:02 PM PDT by Illinois Rep
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To: MillardFillmore

All non scientific, but yet 100% reliable polls have predicted Bush will win. Halloween mask sales favor Bush. 7-11 drink cup sales favor Bush. The Weeky Reader poll of a third of a million school kids favors Bush 65% to 33%. The holocaust of liberals' kids is causing the country to trend conservative now that thirty years of abortion has thinned the ranks of donkeycrat families. The conservatives' kids are starting to vote and the matching liberal's kids are in unmarked graves in city dumps.


35 posted on 10/27/2004 4:27:03 PM PDT by 20mm lib babies in city dumps (HOLOCAUST SURVIVORS WILL WIN)
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To: za_claws
"the MSMedia, I don't trust them, they still have influence, and I can see them holding out the truth, and spinning this for kerry for 6 days......"

Thank God for the Internet!

36 posted on 10/27/2004 4:27:16 PM PDT by bushisdamanin04
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To: small voice in the wilderness

Are you saying that no military ballots will be counted in HI?


37 posted on 10/27/2004 4:27:58 PM PDT by Wait4Truth ("There is nothing complicated about supporting our troops in combat!" - GWB)
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To: TheExploited

My prediction for Nov 2 is:

W 53.5%

K 45%

O 1.5%


38 posted on 10/27/2004 4:28:26 PM PDT by Mister Mellow (On October 26th, I cast my ballot in FL for President George W. Bush)
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To: MillardFillmore

ABC/WAPO polling said that on Saturday and Sunday Kerry had his two best nights since the beginning of the tracking poll. However, Bush had stronger nights on Monday and Tuesday and if the sample were just three days instead of four days, Bush would be up one point tonight. Thus, tomorrow, when the good Saturday for Kerry drops off, Bush will most probably lead again. Further, when Sunday drops off on Friday, Bush should be back up by 4 or so.


39 posted on 10/27/2004 4:28:31 PM PDT by 2iron
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To: The_Republican

If an unmanipulated market would produce a different price, that is the true price, and the manipulated price is a lie. Manipulated markets lie.


40 posted on 10/27/2004 4:29:31 PM PDT by Petronski (A Monday morning quarterback has never led any team to victory.)
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To: MillardFillmore

You just signed up today? I thought I had seen your screen name before.


41 posted on 10/27/2004 4:29:32 PM PDT by Wait4Truth ("There is nothing complicated about supporting our troops in combat!" - GWB)
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To: Mister Mellow

But how can that be??? Juan Williams assured us last night that the young, newly registered voters will provide Kerry with the margin of victory!


42 posted on 10/27/2004 4:29:49 PM PDT by bushisdamanin04
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To: Wait4Truth

I'm saying that my son-in-law, who is going to Iraq Nov. 27, by the way, will not be able to vote absentee. The absentee ballots did not arrive in time to meet the deadline. This is what was told to me today. Of course, they will vote Tuesday.


43 posted on 10/27/2004 4:33:44 PM PDT by small voice in the wilderness (Quick, act casual. If they sense scorn and ridicule, they'll flee..)
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To: BunnySlippers
If Rasmussen hadn't been soooooo far off in 2000 I would be ecstactic!

True, but he's being awfully tight this time around to save face. He wants to be in business 4 years from now. He had to change the name of his polling firm this year because he was so off the mark in 2000.

44 posted on 10/27/2004 4:36:21 PM PDT by IrishGOP (John sKerry believes in the UN, I believe in the 101st Airborne Screaming Eagles!)
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To: bushisdamanin04

The youth vote fo first-time voters is pretty much spilt, and it's actually slightly favoring Bush. It's certainly not going en mass for the dems.

Let's see:

Bush increasing black vote since 2000.
Bush closes gap on women vote since 2000.
Bush has conservative Christian vote fired up (not in 2000).

Equals Bush romp on Nov 2.


45 posted on 10/27/2004 4:37:25 PM PDT by Mister Mellow (On October 26th, I cast my ballot in FL for President George W. Bush)
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To: Josh in PA

Hey Josh, do me a favor. Try to browse georgewbush.com. I've got some weird crap going on when I try to access the site.


46 posted on 10/27/2004 4:39:03 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: jwalsh07

Works for me..

"Whatever it takes" is the name of the ad.


47 posted on 10/27/2004 4:40:45 PM PDT by Josh in PA
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To: Josh in PA

I tied to link to the ad and since then I can only access the site through the backdoor. Strange.


48 posted on 10/27/2004 4:42:08 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: Josh in PA

Josh, stay positive man. If you are anything like me its up and down from hour to hour! Now stay positive. It'll help keep the energy level up for the finish. Best of luck with PA. Now there's a state that a victory would truly be a clincher!


49 posted on 10/27/2004 4:45:52 PM PDT by SolomoninSouthDakota (John Kerry purposefully went after the wrong goose in the wrong place at the wrong time.)
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To: SolomoninSouthDakota


I feel it.. I just feel it..

I'm seeing Cheney on Friday, pumped up for that.
The new Bush ad is brilliant,
The October Surprise is a dud and backfiring
Our GOTV Organization is in unbelievable high gear..
A poll of first-time voters shows BUsh in the lead..

WE ARE GOING TO WIN


50 posted on 10/27/2004 4:47:48 PM PDT by Josh in PA
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