Kerry Has One-Point Lead Over Bush - Reuters Poll (Zogby)

[xuberalles]

Shaping his own polls to try to cover his own predictions. Todays other polls will only reaffirm what yesterday told us. Bush is up to stay.

[rjmeagle]

Checked it out earlier. Thanks for the post. If the folks here want to get a good "layman's" analysis of the pollsters they should go to:

JayCost

[numberonepal]

Let the dummy make it appear the Prez is down. I think the base was pretty well rallied yesterday along with quite a few undecideds. No worries.

[Fenris6]

*I sure do dis-trust this guys polling.*

You're not alone. Experts in the bussiness have questioned Zogby's methodology. shrug.

[Rebelbase]

"That's what Kerry's Soros' millions is buying from Zogby.

[MichaelTN04]

There's two reasons for why this is the way it is.

1) Polling was completed right after or around the time the tape came out. This is pre-Osama polling.

2) Zogby knows that Bush will win now, and he's got three days to show a trend. Sunday will show Bush 49 to 47, Monday Bush 50 to 46, and then on Tuesday he'll keep it at 50 to 46.


Washington Post should show 51 to 46 today, and 52 to 46 on Sunday and it will stay that way Monday.

Gallup will come out on Monday and will show Bush up at least four points, perhaps as much as eight points.

Expect a Newsweek poll to come out today showing Bush behind Kerry. It's pre-Osama and that will be their attempt to show a "Kerry comeback" that they had hoped for but now realize isn't going to happen.

There should be a Time poll out too this weekend, and it could go either way.

[xuberalles]

Even in this tainted poll, Bush could still have a lead within the margin of error. That shows you what Kerry is facing come tuesday.

[narses]

Good stuff, thanks.

[rjmeagle]

Zogby's "Fair and Balanced" poll among pollsters is on the same par as Al-Jazeera is "Fair and Balanced" in the media NOT!!!

PS: Both are Arabs--enough said!!!

[Rome2000]

Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000

National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
2000-Preliminary

	Gore	Bush	Nader	Un- decided	Other	Gore- Bush	Margin Error Poll - Elect	Candidate Error
Election Result	48%	48%	3%		1%	0%
Zogby	48%	46%	5%	0%	1%	2%	2%	1.0%
CBS	45%	44%	4%	5%	2%	1%	1%	0.5%
Harris (Phone)	47%	47%	5%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0.0%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
Pew Research	47%	49%	4%	0%	0%	-2%	2%	1.0%
IBD/CSM/Tipp	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
ICR/Politics Now	44%	46%	7%	1%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
NBC/WSJ	44%	47%	3%	4%	2%	-3%	3%	1.5%
ABC/WashPost	45%	48%	3%	3%	1%	-3%	3%	1.5%
Battleground	45%	50%	4%	0%	1%	-5%	5%	2.5%
					Avg. Error		2.2%	1.1%
Alternative Methods
Harris Interactive	47%	47%	4%	0%	2%	0%	0%	0.0%
Rasmussen	49%	40%	4%			9%	9%	4.5%

				THIRD PARTY ERROR
---------------------Allocate Undecided*-----------------------
Gore	Bush	Nader	Other	Nader Error
48%	46%	5.0%	1%	2%	100%
47%	46%	4.0%	2%	1%	100%
47%	47%	5.0%	1%	2%	100%
46%	48%	4.0%	2%	1%	100%
47%	49%	4.0%	0%	1%	100%
46%	48%	4.0%	2%	1%	100%
44%	46%	7.0%	2%	4%	100%
46%	49%	3.0%	2%	0%	100%
46%	49%	3.0%	1%	0%	100%
45%	50%

[MMkennedy]

Great analysis. Thanks.

Question:
Is this inside info or educated speculation?

[RAY]

Without a doubt Zogby is trying to influence this election - he and his brother, as well as most other Arabs are for Kerry!

However, we must get out and vote!

[Pharlap]

Zogby was on radio and TV yesterday predicting a Kerry win. In addition to all his other baggage, which is substantial, he now must have his polling fall into line with his prediction.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

John Zogby and his brother James are Arab scum that want to see the USA defeated by bin Laden and company, and he is doing the same thing he tried in 2002, when he looked like the fool he is with his off the wall, false polling. Zogby should stick to being a "fair" pollster, rather then being a cheerleader for Usama bin Laden's chosen candidate for POTUS, John "Traitor/Treason" Kerry. No matter what Zogby says, John Kerry is going down big time on election day and so is the entire "traitor" Democrat Party. Mr Zogby, get this: we don't give hoot what your lying poll says!!! And get this: we will be getting out every vote for GW Bush that we humanly can!!!

[MichaelTN04]

It's educated speculation. Just based on trends and what I know about how polling is conducted.

[No Blue States]

"I'm John Kerry and I approve this message."

[ConservativeGreek]

Zogby has two days of reporting to shift his view. He doesn't give up anything by being an outlier poll three days out. He gains favor with the Dems and gets plenty of attention. He enjoys the spotlight.
After the election the only polls reported and discussed is the one on the Monday before voting day.

[RAY]

Zogby knows that Bush will win now, and he's got three days to show a trend. Sunday will show Bush 49 to 47, Monday Bush 50 to 46, and then on Tuesday he'll keep it at 50 to 46.

Explain, is this real or just Zogby's way of presentation to look good - and to continue getting paid for his "factored polling".

Man, hope your analysis are right! However, it seems the unknown factor is the impact of new voters - and apparently the Democrats have larger numbers.