Posted on 11/03/2004 9:25:29 AM PST by finnman69
Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results:
“We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.
“We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side."
(more from Zogby coming soon…)
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Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%
The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2
Is Zogby Nailed to the Perch? He waits until 5:00 P.M. on Election Day to make his “2004 Predictions,” and still gets it all wrong!
Hey John--YOU'RE OVER!!!
And Baghda Bob approve this message!
What a hack! And an ignorant hack!
In 4 years we will remember this and ignore him and others.
Zogby = no credibility
Okay, but you were wrong and please go away and let the bloggers do their job in the future!
http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200411031159.asp
I WANT A CONCESSION FROM ZOGBY, TOO [11/03 11:59 AM]
RightSideRedux has the scorecard:
http://www.rightsideredux.com/archives/2004_11_01_archive.html#109949099242072773
Here are the Zogby vs. real numbers. Done. De-mythed. 2000 was a fluke. He has no pulse on the nation.
Arizona
Zogby had it +6% for Bush
Final +11% for Bush
Arkansas
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final +9% for Bush
Colorado
Zogby had it too close to call
Final +7% for Bush
Florida
Zogby had it +.1% for Kerry and trending Kerry
Final +5% for Bush
Iowa
Zogby had it +5% for Kerry
Final still TBD
Michigan
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry
Minnesota
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry
Missouri
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final Result +8% for Bush
Nevada
Zogby had it too close to call
Final +3% for Bush
New Hampshire
Zogby had it +5% for Kerry
Final Result +1% for Kerry
New Mexico
Zogby had it +3% for Kerry
Final - still TBD
North Carolina
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final +13% for Bush
Oregon
Zogby had it +10% for Kerry
Final Result +5% for Kerry
Ohio
Zogby had it +2% for Bush but trending Kerry
Final TBD
Pennsylvania
Zogby had it trending Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry
Tennessee
Zogby had it +4% for Bush
Final +14% for Bush
Virginia
Zogby had it slight edge for Bush
Final +8% for Bush
Washington
Zogby had it +10% for Kerry
Final Result +7% for Kerry
West Virginia
Zogby had it +4% for Bush
Final +14% for Bush
Wisconsin
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +1% for Kerry
Remember this the next time Zogby appears on cable news talk show, talking up some candidacy.
Powerful.
Translation: I tried to throw the election for Kerry, but I failed. (*sob*sob*)
Probably not much - he's over!
"I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize. "
Blame the trend! I love it!
http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_11_03_corner-archive.asp#045083
MASON-DIXON POLL [Jonah Goldberg]
According the Hotline they were the big winner, pollster-wise.
Go away Puke Zogby.
Like Bush says; "You can run but you can't hide" from your record.
The bloom is off the rose. Zogby = no credibility.
You suck Zog! You couldn't even predict the race after the voting. Go find a cave to hide in with your Islamofascist brethren.
BUH BYE, Zogby!!
"We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state (despite the fact that we were wrong and to have to make this annoucement at all proves it)"
ok zogby.
Please, freepers don't ever post another Zogby poll of FR again...he was trying to supress the R vote yesterday with his EV predictions at 4:30pm
He sauced his FINAL polls at 5:30pm and he TOTALLY BLEW his calls.
ZIPPO credibility. Bye bye Zog.
Right, and I will be making my Super Bowl XXXIX predictions sometime, the evening of Feb. 6, 2005.
He omits a lot of playing around to pump up Kerry's campaign and statements he made along the way. His reputation is toast.
Huh?
As in, he thought he was wrong but then realized he was mistaken.
I do think the pollsters who were off COULD have been more accurate, but they chose to spin things to help Kerry.
Zogby and Sabato? Tar and Feathers?
Armageddon Election?!!!!!!!!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1132718/posts
5/10/2004
Zogby: Race is Kerry's to lose.
I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.
Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry's performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn't, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion:
First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected - compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new.
In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.
Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.
Third, the economy is still the top issue for voters - 30% cite it. While the war in Iraq had been only noted by 11% as the top issue in March, it jumped to 20% in our April poll as a result of bad war news dominating the news agenda. The third issue is the war on terrorism. Among those who cited the economy, Kerry leads the President 54% to 35%. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Kerry's lead is 57% to 36%. This, of course, is balanced by the 64% to 30% margin that the President holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism. These top issues are not likely to go away. And arguably, there is greater and growing intensity on the part of those who oppose and want to defeat Bush.
The President's problem is further compounded by the fact that he is now at the mercy of situations that are out of his control. While the economy is improving, voters historically do not look at indicators that measure trillions and billions of dollars. Instead, their focus is on hundreds and thousands of dollars. In this regard, there is less concern for increases in productivity and gross domestic product and more regard for growth in jobs and maintaining of health benefits. Just 12 years ago, the economy had begun its turnaround in the fourth quarter of 1991 and was in full recovery by spring 1992 - yet voters gave the President's father only 38% of the vote because it was all about "the economy, stupid."
The same holds true for Iraq. Will the United States actually be able to leave by June 30? Will Iraq be better off by then? Will the US be able to transfer power to a legitimate and unifying authority? Will the lives lost by the US and its allies be judged as the worth the final product? It is difficult to see how the President grabs control of this situation.
Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry's campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can't spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found Governor Howard Dean's message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: "I'm a veteran", "I have the experience", and "I can win". His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told a television correspondent in Iowa: "John always knows when his homework is due."
Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President's side).
We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose.
Fortunately I posted the information to an FRiend because the Zogby page was gone by ll:00 am.:)
De Nile.
Zogby was putting out bad info the last several months, not just on election eve. However, because he's a 'Rat he'll back in time for the mid-term election in 2006. The lib talk show hosts need guests.
As much of the Arab-American population were encouraged to vote against Bush by leading Arab-American groups, is it really that big of a surprise to most that Arab-American John Zogby might give them a little help? How balanced would most Americans consider an exit polling done by Jessie Jackson, or the heads of NAACP, NAARL, or Planned Parenthood?
Translation: It's not my fault.
"FAKE BUT ACCURATE"
Zogby can borrow the CBS/NY TImes mantra
Can we finally get rid of this guy?
Pollsters soon will be thought of as WEATHER prognositicators. It really doesn't matter if they are right or wrong they just report their best guess.
No, what you always saw was a Kerry win, Zogby.
Maybe if you hadn't sold out so obviously to Kerry, your credibility wouldn't be in tatters today.
Hey John .... go pi$$ up a rope!
for some reason I don't recall aything Zogby ever wrote or said projecting Bush as the all-time popular vote winner, eclipsing Reagain in 1984. And what is this about no mandate, like that ever stopped Clinton with his < 50% repeated victories.
I'm laughing my @ss off at this one. This is the kind of statement a pollster should be making before an election, when he's looking to promote the accuracy of his polling. This is the equivalent of John Madden picking one team to win the Super Bowl, then stating that he "feels strongly that his pick was accurate" even after his team loses.
The election is over, so there's no room for "feeling strongly" about anything. Either Zogby's pre-election polls were accurate, or they weren't. The evidence is now in, and they weren't.
In regard to his own future as a pollster, he may be right...
Zogby should have had a plan like John Kerry
Zogby has completely blown it as a credible pollster. His income has just gone down the drain.
Polling Dissonance: Ohio
The Pre-Election Polls
Date: October 17, 2004.
Source: ABC News.
Poll: Kerry leads by three points, 50-47, with three percent undecided.
Date: October 20, 2004.
Source: CNN/Gallup/USA Today.
Poll: Kerry leads by one point, 48-47, with four percent undecided.
Date: October 21, 2004.
Source: Univ. of Ohio/Scripps News Service.
Poll: Kerry leads by four points, 50-46, with three percent undecided.
Date: October 25, 2004.
Source: Survey USA.
Poll: Kerry leads by three points, 50-47, with two percent undecided.
Date: October 26, 2004.
Source: Los Angeles Times.
Poll: Kerry leads by six points, 50-44, with six percent undecided.
Date: October 31, 2004.
Source: CNN/Gallup/USA Today.
Poll: Kerry leads by four points, 50-46, with four percent undecided.
The Actual Result
George Bush wins the state, by well over 100,000 votes, and by a margin of 51.0-48.5.
http://polipundit.com/
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1266944/posts
Zogby's Election Final Presidential Polls Bush 49.4% 213EV Kerry 49.1% 311EV (barf alert)
Just add 5.6% to the Bush numbers on each state, and you are accurate.
Zogby is kidding no one but himself!
Every clear thinking American knows that Z is just another 'Rat political hack.
Put a fork in yourself, Z
'cause you DONE!
Semper Fi,
Kelly
Zogby Predicts Kerry Will Win
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1261753/posts
One of the nation’s most respected pollsters predicts that John Kerry will win the presidency Tuesday. Zogby gave his take on the heated presidential contest to New York Daily News columnist Sydney Zion in Friday’s paper.
"It's close," Zogby said, "but in the last couple of days things have been trending toward Kerry - nationally and in the swing states. Between this and history, I think it will be Kerry."
Zogby also rebutted an article by Robert Novak published this week that indicated Zogby was predicting a Bush Victory.
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