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Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results (CYA spin)
Zogby ^ | 11/3/04 | John Zogby

Posted on 11/03/2004 9:25:29 AM PST by finnman69

Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results:

“We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.

“We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side."

(more from Zogby coming soon…)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004finalpolls; 2004poll; 2004polls; finalzogbypolls; polls; polls2004; zogby; zogby2004
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http://slate.msn.com/id/2108954/

Is Zogby Nailed to the Perch? He waits until 5:00 P.M. on Election Day to make his “2004 Predictions,” and still gets it all wrong!

1 posted on 11/03/2004 9:25:29 AM PST by finnman69
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To: finnman69

Hey John--YOU'RE OVER!!!


2 posted on 11/03/2004 9:26:27 AM PST by Uncle Vlad
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To: finnman69

And Baghda Bob approve this message!


3 posted on 11/03/2004 9:26:33 AM PST by mmyers
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To: finnman69

What a hack! And an ignorant hack!


4 posted on 11/03/2004 9:26:33 AM PST by Darkwolf377
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To: finnman69

In 4 years we will remember this and ignore him and others.


5 posted on 11/03/2004 9:26:45 AM PST by LegalEagle61
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To: finnman69

Zogby = no credibility


6 posted on 11/03/2004 9:27:23 AM PST by Nachum (We're All Americans, Let's Stand Together)
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To: LegalEagle61

Okay, but you were wrong and please go away and let the bloggers do their job in the future!


7 posted on 11/03/2004 9:27:48 AM PST by Mfkmmof4
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To: finnman69

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200411031159.asp

I WANT A CONCESSION FROM ZOGBY, TOO [11/03 11:59 AM]

RightSideRedux has the scorecard:
http://www.rightsideredux.com/archives/2004_11_01_archive.html#109949099242072773

Here are the Zogby vs. real numbers. Done. De-mythed. 2000 was a fluke. He has no pulse on the nation.
Arizona
Zogby had it +6% for Bush
Final +11% for Bush

Arkansas
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final +9% for Bush

Colorado
Zogby had it too close to call
Final +7% for Bush

Florida
Zogby had it +.1% for Kerry and trending Kerry
Final +5% for Bush

Iowa
Zogby had it +5% for Kerry
Final still TBD

Michigan
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry

Minnesota
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry

Missouri
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final Result +8% for Bush

Nevada
Zogby had it too close to call
Final +3% for Bush

New Hampshire
Zogby had it +5% for Kerry
Final Result +1% for Kerry

New Mexico
Zogby had it +3% for Kerry
Final - still TBD

North Carolina
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final +13% for Bush

Oregon
Zogby had it +10% for Kerry
Final Result +5% for Kerry

Ohio
Zogby had it +2% for Bush but trending Kerry
Final TBD

Pennsylvania
Zogby had it trending Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry

Tennessee
Zogby had it +4% for Bush
Final +14% for Bush

Virginia
Zogby had it slight edge for Bush
Final +8% for Bush

Washington
Zogby had it +10% for Kerry
Final Result +7% for Kerry

West Virginia
Zogby had it +4% for Bush
Final +14% for Bush

Wisconsin
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +1% for Kerry


Remember this the next time Zogby appears on cable news talk show, talking up some candidacy.


8 posted on 11/03/2004 9:27:49 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: finnman69

Powerful.


9 posted on 11/03/2004 9:28:38 AM PST by holdonnow
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To: finnman69
I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.

Translation: I tried to throw the election for Kerry, but I failed. (*sob*sob*)

10 posted on 11/03/2004 9:28:40 AM PST by Prime Choice (Laura Bush is like everyone's sweetheart. Teresa Heinz-Kerry is like everyone's mother-in-law.)
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To: Uncle Vlad
>>>> (more from Zogby coming soon…) <<<

Probably not much - he's over!

11 posted on 11/03/2004 9:28:44 AM PST by HardStarboard (Surrounded by Kerry/Edwards Signs in Washington State)
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To: finnman69

"I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize. "

Blame the trend! I love it!


12 posted on 11/03/2004 9:29:32 AM PST by Buck W. (How can anyone who works for a living vote democrat?)
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To: finnman69

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_11_03_corner-archive.asp#045083

MASON-DIXON POLL [Jonah Goldberg]
According the Hotline they were the big winner, pollster-wise.


13 posted on 11/03/2004 9:29:34 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: finnman69

Go away Puke Zogby.


14 posted on 11/03/2004 9:29:44 AM PST by cynicom (<p)
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To: finnman69

Like Bush says; "You can run but you can't hide" from your record.


15 posted on 11/03/2004 9:29:57 AM PST by Brett66 (Dan Rather, the most busted man in America.)
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To: finnman69
Zog's actual "final" poll wasn't bad. But then he pulled the stunt of issuing another "final" poll at 5:00 pm that he sauced with the bogus "exit polls."

The bloom is off the rose. Zogby = no credibility.

16 posted on 11/03/2004 9:30:08 AM PST by colorado tanker ("medals, ribbons, we threw away the symbols of what our country gave us and I'm proud of that")
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To: finnman69

You suck Zog! You couldn't even predict the race after the voting. Go find a cave to hide in with your Islamofascist brethren.


17 posted on 11/03/2004 9:30:20 AM PST by over3Owithabrain
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To: finnman69
At 6 pm PST, I heard Zogby on L.A. radio saying that Kerry would win.

BUH BYE, Zogby!!

18 posted on 11/03/2004 9:30:48 AM PST by Yaelle
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To: finnman69

"We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state (despite the fact that we were wrong and to have to make this annoucement at all proves it)"


ok zogby.


19 posted on 11/03/2004 9:30:56 AM PST by Mr. K
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To: All

Please, freepers don't ever post another Zogby poll of FR again...he was trying to supress the R vote yesterday with his EV predictions at 4:30pm


20 posted on 11/03/2004 9:31:02 AM PST by mystery-ak (PRAY, PRAY, PRAY....for Victory)
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To: colorado tanker

He sauced his FINAL polls at 5:30pm and he TOTALLY BLEW his calls.

ZIPPO credibility. Bye bye Zog.


21 posted on 11/03/2004 9:31:03 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: finnman69

Right, and I will be making my Super Bowl XXXIX predictions sometime, the evening of Feb. 6, 2005.


22 posted on 11/03/2004 9:31:07 AM PST by Sgt_Schultze
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To: holdonnow
".....within the margin of error..."

He omits a lot of playing around to pump up Kerry's campaign and statements he made along the way. His reputation is toast.

23 posted on 11/03/2004 9:31:09 AM PST by Anti-Bubba182
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To: finnman69
Our polls were accurate. They were just wrong.

Huh?

As in, he thought he was wrong but then realized he was mistaken.

24 posted on 11/03/2004 9:31:10 AM PST by jim macomber (Author: "Bargained for Exchange", "Art & Part", "A Grave Breach" http://www.jamesmacomber.com)
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To: colorado tanker

I do think the pollsters who were off COULD have been more accurate, but they chose to spin things to help Kerry.


25 posted on 11/03/2004 9:31:13 AM PST by over3Owithabrain
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To: HardStarboard

Zogby and Sabato? Tar and Feathers?


26 posted on 11/03/2004 9:31:22 AM PST by Skip98
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To: finnman69
Jeez, Zog you blew it

admit it and move on
27 posted on 11/03/2004 9:31:31 AM PST by Wild_Bill_8881 (If ya can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with BS)
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To: finnman69

Armageddon Election?!!!!!!!!


28 posted on 11/03/2004 9:32:10 AM PST by Saundra Duffy (,)
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To: finnman69

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1132718/posts

5/10/2004

Zogby: Race is Kerry's to lose.

I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.

Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry's performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn't, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion:

First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected - compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new.

In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.

Third, the economy is still the top issue for voters - 30% cite it. While the war in Iraq had been only noted by 11% as the top issue in March, it jumped to 20% in our April poll as a result of bad war news dominating the news agenda. The third issue is the war on terrorism. Among those who cited the economy, Kerry leads the President 54% to 35%. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Kerry's lead is 57% to 36%. This, of course, is balanced by the 64% to 30% margin that the President holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism. These top issues are not likely to go away. And arguably, there is greater and growing intensity on the part of those who oppose and want to defeat Bush.

The President's problem is further compounded by the fact that he is now at the mercy of situations that are out of his control. While the economy is improving, voters historically do not look at indicators that measure trillions and billions of dollars. Instead, their focus is on hundreds and thousands of dollars. In this regard, there is less concern for increases in productivity and gross domestic product and more regard for growth in jobs and maintaining of health benefits. Just 12 years ago, the economy had begun its turnaround in the fourth quarter of 1991 and was in full recovery by spring 1992 - yet voters gave the President's father only 38% of the vote because it was all about "the economy, stupid."

The same holds true for Iraq. Will the United States actually be able to leave by June 30? Will Iraq be better off by then? Will the US be able to transfer power to a legitimate and unifying authority? Will the lives lost by the US and its allies be judged as the worth the final product? It is difficult to see how the President grabs control of this situation.

Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry's campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can't spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found Governor Howard Dean's message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: "I'm a veteran", "I have the experience", and "I can win". His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told a television correspondent in Iowa: "John always knows when his homework is due."

Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President's side).

We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose.


29 posted on 11/03/2004 9:33:25 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: finnman69
This is funny. I went over to Zogby at 8:30 this morning and copied Zogby's 5pm predictions from yesterday where Zogby was predicting Kerry with 311 EV and Bush with 213 EV. His survey was based on a glorifed 955 phones calls made to 'likely voters' across the nation with a margin of error of +/- 3.2!

Fortunately I posted the information to an FRiend because the Zogby page was gone by ll:00 am.:)

30 posted on 11/03/2004 9:33:32 AM PST by xJones
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To: finnman69

31 posted on 11/03/2004 9:33:41 AM PST by Area51 (Diapers and Politicians need to be changed-For the same reason)
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To: finnman69

De Nile.


32 posted on 11/03/2004 9:33:41 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer (The democRATS are near the tipping point.)
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To: Uncle Vlad
Hey John--YOU'RE OVER!!!

Zogby was putting out bad info the last several months, not just on election eve. However, because he's a 'Rat he'll back in time for the mid-term election in 2006. The lib talk show hosts need guests.

33 posted on 11/03/2004 9:33:43 AM PST by BluH2o
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To: finnman69

As much of the Arab-American population were encouraged to vote against Bush by leading Arab-American groups, is it really that big of a surprise to most that Arab-American John Zogby might give them a little help? How balanced would most Americans consider an exit polling done by Jessie Jackson, or the heads of NAACP, NAARL, or Planned Parenthood?


34 posted on 11/03/2004 9:33:49 AM PST by stopillegalimmigration
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To: finnman69
we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.

Translation: It's not my fault.

35 posted on 11/03/2004 9:33:52 AM PST by Gamecock (GRPL: No secret handshakes, passwords, or rituals. Just God's Holy Word. (but with a cool logo!))
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To: jim macomber

"FAKE BUT ACCURATE"

Zogby can borrow the CBS/NY TImes mantra


36 posted on 11/03/2004 9:33:57 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: finnman69

Can we finally get rid of this guy?


37 posted on 11/03/2004 9:33:57 AM PST by Novel
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To: finnman69

Pollsters soon will be thought of as WEATHER prognositicators. It really doesn't matter if they are right or wrong they just report their best guess.


38 posted on 11/03/2004 9:34:02 AM PST by PISANO (Never Forget 911!! & 911's First Heroes "Beamer, Glick , Bingham & Bennett.")
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To: finnman69

No, what you always saw was a Kerry win, Zogby.

Maybe if you hadn't sold out so obviously to Kerry, your credibility wouldn't be in tatters today.


39 posted on 11/03/2004 9:34:09 AM PST by Soul Seeker
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To: finnman69

Hey John .... go pi$$ up a rope!


40 posted on 11/03/2004 9:34:19 AM PST by hawkaw
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To: finnman69

for some reason I don't recall aything Zogby ever wrote or said projecting Bush as the all-time popular vote winner, eclipsing Reagain in 1984. And what is this about no mandate, like that ever stopped Clinton with his < 50% repeated victories.


41 posted on 11/03/2004 9:34:43 AM PST by Steven W.
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To: finnman69
We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state.

I'm laughing my @ss off at this one. This is the kind of statement a pollster should be making before an election, when he's looking to promote the accuracy of his polling. This is the equivalent of John Madden picking one team to win the Super Bowl, then stating that he "feels strongly that his pick was accurate" even after his team loses.

The election is over, so there's no room for "feeling strongly" about anything. Either Zogby's pre-election polls were accurate, or they weren't. The evidence is now in, and they weren't.

42 posted on 11/03/2004 9:35:32 AM PST by Alberta's Child (I made enough money to buy Miami -- but I pissed it away on the Alternative Minimum Tax.)
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To: finnman69
I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time...

In regard to his own future as a pollster, he may be right...

43 posted on 11/03/2004 9:35:38 AM PST by danneskjold (Concession...It's the classy way to surrender...)
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To: Alberta's Child

Zogby should have had a plan like John Kerry


44 posted on 11/03/2004 9:36:57 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: finnman69

Zogby has completely blown it as a credible pollster. His income has just gone down the drain.


45 posted on 11/03/2004 9:37:05 AM PST by McGavin999 (George Soros just learned a very expensive lesson-America can't be bought.)
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To: finnman69

Polling Dissonance: Ohio

The Pre-Election Polls

Date: October 17, 2004.
Source: ABC News.
Poll: Kerry leads by three points, 50-47, with three percent undecided.

Date: October 20, 2004.
Source: CNN/Gallup/USA Today.
Poll: Kerry leads by one point, 48-47, with four percent undecided.

Date: October 21, 2004.
Source: Univ. of Ohio/Scripps News Service.
Poll: Kerry leads by four points, 50-46, with three percent undecided.

Date: October 25, 2004.
Source: Survey USA.
Poll: Kerry leads by three points, 50-47, with two percent undecided.

Date: October 26, 2004.
Source: Los Angeles Times.
Poll: Kerry leads by six points, 50-44, with six percent undecided.

Date: October 31, 2004.
Source: CNN/Gallup/USA Today.
Poll: Kerry leads by four points, 50-46, with four percent undecided.

The Actual Result

George Bush wins the state, by well over 100,000 votes, and by a margin of 51.0-48.5.

http://polipundit.com/


46 posted on 11/03/2004 9:37:08 AM PST by soccer_linux_mozilla
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To: All

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1266944/posts
Zogby's Election Final Presidential Polls Bush 49.4% 213EV Kerry 49.1% 311EV (barf alert)


47 posted on 11/03/2004 9:37:57 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: finnman69
“We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state.

Just add 5.6% to the Bush numbers on each state, and you are accurate.

48 posted on 11/03/2004 9:38:10 AM PST by mjp
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To: finnman69

Zogby is kidding no one but himself!
Every clear thinking American knows that Z is just another 'Rat political hack.

Put a fork in yourself, Z
'cause you DONE!

Semper Fi,
Kelly


49 posted on 11/03/2004 9:39:07 AM PST by kellynla (U.S.M.C. 1/5 1st Mar Div. Nam 69&70 Semper Fi http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnkerry.com)
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To: finnman69

Zogby Predicts Kerry Will Win
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1261753/posts

One of the nation’s most respected pollsters predicts that John Kerry will win the presidency Tuesday. Zogby gave his take on the heated presidential contest to New York Daily News columnist Sydney Zion in Friday’s paper.

"It's close," Zogby said, "but in the last couple of days things have been trending toward Kerry - nationally and in the swing states. Between this and history, I think it will be Kerry."

Zogby also rebutted an article by Robert Novak published this week that indicated Zogby was predicting a Bush Victory.


50 posted on 11/03/2004 9:39:30 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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