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Ohio Provisional Ballots Seem Legitimate
AP ^ | 11/17/2004 | MARK WILLIAMS

Posted on 11/17/2004 10:51:40 AM PST by Tennessean4Bush

Seem Legitimate

By MARK WILLIAMS, Associated Press Writer

COLUMBUS, Ohio - The vast majority of provisional ballots cast in Ohio were legitimate, say election officials who are poring over thousands of presidential election ballots.

The ballots that are being rejected are invalid because people simply were not registered, did not give information such as addresses or signatures, or voted in precincts where they do not live.

"Some people thought because they had changed their mailing address at the post office, or had changed their utilities, that they had done everything necessary to be eligible to vote," said Nancy Moore, deputy director of the Belmont County Board of Elections. "They still have to change their address at the board of elections. We're not mind readers."

President Bush (news - web sites) beat Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites) in Ohio by 136,000 votes in unofficial tallies, and Kerry has conceded not enough outstanding votes exist to sway the election his way in the key battleground state.

Of the 11 counties that have completed checking provisional ballots, 81 percent of the ballots are valid, according to an Associated Press survey Monday. Counties that have completed partial tallies also said most of the provisional ballots were being counted.

Cuyahoga County, where Cleveland is located, has processed 40 percent, or 9,719 votes, of its 24,788 provisional ballots and rejected a third, according to a board tally. Most are being rejected because the voters were not registered.

In many counties, the smallest portion of rejected ballots were due to votes being cast in the wrong precinct. Before the election, Democrats lost a court appeal seeking to allow people to cast provisional ballots in precincts where they do not live.

Election officials said heightened public attention to the court case and the efforts of poll workers helped voters arrive at the right precincts.

Ohio voters cast 155,337 provisional ballots, which are used when voters names are not on the rolls for some reason or their eligibility is otherwise in doubt. Counties have until Dec. 1 to complete their final count. In 2000, about 87 percent of provisional ballots were counted.

Officials are determining voters' eligibility before counting each vote, so the result is not yet known.

In Colorado, the approval rate of provisional ballots was 76 percent, according to a survey of counties by the Denver Post. Nearly 24 percent of the state's estimated 51,000 provisional ballots had been rejected, the newspaper reported Wednesday.

Election officials had not yet compiled the reason for the rejections, the newspaper said. The rejection rate was 12 percent in Colorado in 2002, a non-presidential election year.

President Bush won in Colorado by more than 5 percentage points.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: ohio; provisional
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To: South40

I am confused about the difference between the 155K figure and the 135K number we are reading. In any case, if only 80% of the 155,000 are valid then that comes to about 125,000 and even if 100% of them went to Kerry he could not win. That one-third rejection rate from Cuyahoga, which is Kerry's best county, is very good news though.

My bigger concern is that there will be a forced recount that includes the "spoiled" ballots. Since they are by very definition spoiled, I don't see how they can be counted. But if they are up against the Dec 13 deadline for the day the electoral college is to vote, then this could lead to a chaotic situation.


21 posted on 11/17/2004 11:34:36 AM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: TNCMAXQ

I'm not sure where the 155,000 number comes from (the wishful liberal media?) but the 135,000 number comes from the state of Ohio.


22 posted on 11/17/2004 11:39:08 AM PST by South40 (Amnesty for ILLEGALS is a slap in the face to the USBP!)
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To: South40; All

Also there is no way in heck that Kerry will recieve the all of the 135,000 pv.. If GW was in danger of losing Ohio the media will report it big time...


23 posted on 11/17/2004 11:43:38 AM PST by KevinDavis (Let the meek inherit the Earth, the rest of us will explore the stars!)
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To: South40
The table on the Ohio Secretary of State's website (Voter Turnout: Nov. 2, 2004) shows a total of 155,428 provisional ballots issued:

Voter Turnout: November 2, 2004

Unofficial Results

County Name Total Precincts Total Registered Voters Total Votes Cast Percentage of Votes Cast Provisional Ballots Issued
Adams 35 17,696 12,094 68.34 184
Allen 139 68,174 48,121 70.59 1,374
Ashland 65 34,847 25,171 72.23 629
Ashtabula 127 62,926 45,474 72.27 1,142
Athens 69 45,100 27,960 62.00 2,504
Auglaize 39 33,094 22,528 68.07 647
Belmont 83 44,452 33,452 75.25 1,067
Brown 35 28,922 20,030 69.26 326
Butler 289 238,117 163,668 68.73 5,793
Carroll 26 20,076 14,172 70.59 304
Champaign 29 25,376 18,564 73.16 555
Clark 100 89,683 68,883 76.81 1,279
Clermont 191 125,823 88,019 69.95 1,818
Clinton 32 25,092 18,177 72.44 378
Columbiana 103 78,536 49,249 62.71 1,085
Coshocton 43 22,679 17,331 76.42 277
Crawford 46 29,591 21,906 74.03 424
Cuyahoga 1,436 1,005,807 665,334 66.15 24,788
Darke 43 38,290 26,379 68.89 710
Defiance 42 25,847 18,169 70.29 672
Delaware 123 100,676 79,691 79.16 1,891
Erie 62 55,517 39,690 71.49 972
Fairfield 118 91,498 67,632 73.92 1,306
Fayette 38 16,093 11,704 72.73 293
Franklin 788 845,720 515,472 60.95 14,446
Fulton 35 28,561 21,902 76.69 381
Gallia 35 23,567 13,944 59.17 574
Geauga 96 65,393 51,286 78.43 668
Greene 142 105,079 77,830 74.07 2,127
Guernsey 37 27,129 16,570 61.08 558
Hamilton 1,013 573,612 418,001 72.87 14,386
Hancock 62 49,607 35,087 70.73 791
Hardin 38 18,921 13,146 69.48 349
Harrison 24 11,769 8,410 71.46 89
Henry 33 19,685 15,188 77.16 250
Highland 31 28,243 18,323 64.88 494
Hocking 32 18,378 13,258 72.14 251
Holmes 19 18,089 11,542 63.81 170
Huron 55 37,436 25,584 68.34 670
Jackson 38 23,997 14,332 59.72 422
Jefferson 91 49,655 36,528 73.56 650
Knox 56 36,971 26,661 72.11 689
Lake 217 160,165 119,657 74.71 1,975
Lawrence 84 41,424 27,876 67.29 599
Licking 122 111,387 78,876 70.81 1,565
Logan 52 29,406 21,135 71.87 650
Lorain 239 196,601 139,069 70.74 4,134
Lucas 495 302,136 216,453 71.64 6,719
Madison 44 23,477 17,451 74.33 392
Mahoning 312 194,673 131,938 67.77 2,717
Marion 84 43,323 28,762 66.39 928
Medina 149 118,330 84,725 71.60 1,266
Meigs 27 15,205 10,813 71.11 240
Mercer 37 31,306 20,478 65.41 931
Miami 82 72,169 50,562 70.06 1,609
Monroe 29 10,350 7,857 75.91 132
Montgomery 588 391,914 279,801 71.39 9,227
Morgan 22 9,358 6,770 72.34 160
Morrow 36 24,249 16,403 67.64 314
Muskingum 85 51,552 38,817 75.30 871
Noble 27 8,879 6,715 75.63 75
Ottawa 78 30,251 23,052 76.20 469
Paulding 30 14,226 9,881 69.46 243
Perry 46 23,480 15,328 65.28 428
Pickaway 53 30,045 22,579 75.15 553
Pike 24 19,661 12,708 64.64 285
Portage 129 109,565 76,306 69.64 1,445
Preble 45 28,137 21,226 75.44 493
Putnam 35 24,572 18,948 77.11 246
Richland 126 95,359 61,907 64.92 1,357
Ross 76 43,463 31,402 72.25 563
Sandusky 72 39,408 32,433 82.30 760
Scioto 106 48,012 35,317 73.56 867
Seneca 54 37,974 27,148 71.49 494
Shelby 35 28,460 22,688 79.72 791
Stark 364 267,939 186,252 69.51 6,653
Summit 475 368,858 275,551 74.70 5,932
Trumbull 274 142,548 108,533 76.14 2,700
Tuscarawas 81 55,656 42,871 77.03 987
Union 46 30,200 22,515 74.55 436
Van Wert 39 21,100 15,252 72.28 297
Vinton 20 8,527 6,059 71.06 129
Warren 157 125,919 93,321 74.11 1,465
Washington 56 40,881 29,707 72.67 643
Wayne 97 69,672 51,898 74.49 818
Williams 44 26,772 18,324 68.44 694
Wood 105 91,492 61,865 67.62 2,655
Wyandot 24 15,834 10,785 68.11 138
TOTAL 11,360 7,979,639 5,574,476 69.86 155,428

24 posted on 11/17/2004 11:51:44 AM PST by jpthomas
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To: jpthomas

Is there a difference between the number issued and the actual number case perhaps? I have seen that 135K figure listed too. In any case, since the rejection rate seems to be 20-40% per counter then the final number counted should be well below 135K, so that is not a concern. I remain more nervous about these "spoiled" ballots where they may try to find Demo votes where none exist.


25 posted on 11/17/2004 11:54:05 AM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: TNCMAXQ

I don't know how to explain the discrepancy between the 135,000 number sometimes mentioned and the 155,428 listed on the Ohio Secretary of State website. What I do believe, however, is that the provisional ballots will most likely result in a net gain for Bush. As you can see from the table I posted, they are distributed as one would expect, proportionally to the population of the counties. I believe they will break in each county close to how the votes were divided between Bush and Kerry in those counties. That should result in a slight increase in Bush's margin of victory, once the provisional ballots accepted as legitimate are counted. The spoiled ballots will not be counted as part of the official results due by December 1st.


26 posted on 11/17/2004 12:03:17 PM PST by jpthomas
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To: jpthomas

Why is that?....the provisionals i mean


27 posted on 11/17/2004 12:05:13 PM PST by traderrob6
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To: TNCMAXQ

To me the most striking piece of information in that chart is the percentage of people voting. Look how many are over 65% even over 70%. None are under 50%. Not only did the people voice their opinions they did so in record numbers.


28 posted on 11/17/2004 12:06:56 PM PST by Keith59 (God Bless the United States and help guide the President of the United States - George Bush)
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To: traderrob6

sorry....the spoiled ballots, why are they not figured in?


29 posted on 11/17/2004 12:07:21 PM PST by traderrob6
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To: Keith59
I am sure if you were one of those you would want your voice counted.

If I wanted my vote counted I would keep my registration up to date.

30 posted on 11/17/2004 12:09:10 PM PST by js1138 (D*mn, I Missed!)
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To: jpthomas

Others are reporting the spoiled ballots will be counted but that makes no sense. In any case I hope there will be no recount. The rules on this are unclear too but it sounds as if the state does not have to approve a recount even if one is requested, unless the margin of victory is much smaller.

This comment by Kerry about "still counting votes" has me wondering though. You'd think the reporter would have asked what do you mean by that? Are you girding for a fight maybe?? If he is he should just be honest and say so.


31 posted on 11/17/2004 12:12:07 PM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: traderrob6

Why will the provisional ballots increase Bush's lead? Because the table on the Ohio Secretary of State's website shows that these ballots are distributed proportionally to the population of each county. If you consider the provisional ballots cast in a particular county, you would expect that the percent cast for Bush and Kerry to fall in line within a few percentage points to how the regular ballots were cast in that county. Since we know that in the aggregate Bush received more votes than Kerry from the regular ballots, when you aggregrate the results of the provisional ballots from each county, the net result should be a slight gain for Bush. In other words, the provisional ballots should roughly follow the results of the regular ballots cast. The only way I would have expected a different outcome is if the provisional ballots had been cast overwhelmingly in the Democratic strongholds. Thankfully, they were not.


32 posted on 11/17/2004 12:16:00 PM PST by jpthomas
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To: jpthomas

K, makes sense, but why do you suspect that they will not review the "spoiled" ballots, like ,heaven forbid, Florida


33 posted on 11/17/2004 12:19:13 PM PST by traderrob6
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To: js1138
In a perfect world we all would and there would never be a data entry problem. They are legitimate reasons people need to cast provisional ballots. They are part of the system. Again, please I am not saying they will change the outcome at all. Bush won hands down. Thank goodness. Maybe that is even more so to have everything valid counted; all it can do is strenght hands.
34 posted on 11/17/2004 12:23:11 PM PST by Keith59 (God Bless the United States and help guide the President of the United States - George Bush)
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To: traderrob6

Because I believe these "spoiled" ballots represent overvotes, where a voter inadvertently voted for more than one candidate for a particular office. In many cases, such as with the optical scanning machines, when the voter attempts to cast such a ballot, the overvote is detected as the voter's ballot is read by the voting machine. The ballot is rejected by the machine. The poll worker is alerted by the rejection and determines that an overvote has taken place, provides the voter a fresh ballot, and marks the uncounted ballot as spoiled. I personally witnessed such an occurance at my own polling place in Florida. Since the person whose initial ballot was "spoiled" got a fresh ballot and was able to vote, the "spoiled" ballot represents an erroneous duplicate ballot that should not be counted.


35 posted on 11/17/2004 12:28:41 PM PST by jpthomas
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To: NYFriend

At 81% legit, Kerry loses even if all of the ballots go for him. He gets 124,203 move votes; Bush's initial margin is 136,000 votes. Bush ends up ahead by 11,797 votes even if Kerry gets all of the provisional votes. What do you want to bet Kerry's people did very similar math before he conceded.


36 posted on 11/17/2004 12:30:05 PM PST by libstripper
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To: Keith59
I understand data entry problems. I suspect that accounts for one percent or less of the provisional ballots. As for technology, I am a big believer in optically scanned paper ballots. Each one is uniquely numbered in sequence, so there is great difficulty in trying to forge them or insert them after the polls close. Each precinct keeps a count of the total votes cast, which must match the number of bllots.

They are inexpensive and require little or nothing in the way of equipment. Therefore a precinct can have or twenty people voting simultaneously at no great expense. There are no long waiting lines.

The ballots are easily and reliably counted. If a counting machine breaks it does not affect the ballot. If the counting machines aren't trusted, the ballots are easily counted by hand.

37 posted on 11/17/2004 12:31:51 PM PST by js1138 (D*mn, I Missed!)
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To: Keith59
I agree the counting will not change the outcome. But it is never a waste of time to count votes. If people voted according to the rules then they deserve to be counted. Lets not confuse unneeded recounts with counting the original legitimately cast votes. I am sure if you were one of those you would want your voice counted.

Let me give you a blated welcome to the Free Republic.

True it is not a waste to recount, if the count was not done correctly the first time. The danger in a recount is that the losing side now knows how many ballots they need to come up with to win.

38 posted on 11/17/2004 12:38:45 PM PST by AxelPaulsenJr (Pray Daily For Our Troops and President Bush)
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To: mjwise

"Of the 11 counties that have completed checking provisional ballots, 81 percent of the ballots are valid"

Having worked such ballots and the polls I find the 81% figure unbelievable. Whoever is reviewing these ballots are letting some in that are not valid.


39 posted on 11/17/2004 12:43:14 PM PST by AuntB (Most provisional ballots are from voters not eligible to vote!!! Ask a poll worker!)
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To: AxelPaulsenJr
Thanks for the welcome. My point is only that counting the Provisional is not a recount rather only part of the original count. Regardless if we expect it to change the outcome or not (which we know it won't) the original counting of all legitimate votes is the key to any fair election. I am not disagreeing with you I am just saying it a bit differently.
40 posted on 11/17/2004 12:43:46 PM PST by Keith59 (God Bless the United States and help guide the President of the United States - George Bush)
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