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Housing boom could be history soon, experts say ^ | 12/08/2004 | David Washburn

Posted on 12/10/2004 9:05:07 PM PST by nanak

OK. This time they mean it, really. Economists in San Diego and around the country are saying the biggest housing boom in the region's history is slowing and may be finished by the end of 2005.

"The phenomenon of doubling your money in three years is over for this cycle," said Jim Teak, a San Diego-based economist with Prudential Realty of California.

A lot of people agree with Teak. The influential UCLA Anderson Forecast says in a report out today that 2005 could be the year that "reality and reason" finally cool off the housing market.

Higher interest rates will keep overall price increases in the single digits, and may force small price drops in the more expensive neighborhoods, the report said.

Although most homeowners will be able to weather the slowdown, it could be bad news for first-time home buyers and speculators who have bought in recent months.

"If you locked into a great long-term rate, then you are OK," Anderson economist Edward Leamer said. "But people who think they are going flip – get in and get out in the next several years – are the people who need to rethink their strategy."

Of course, some economists have been saying the housing market is overpriced for the past year or longer. UCLA's economists said a year ago that they were starting to worry about a housing bubble, but prices have continued to rise.

The median price for existing single-family homes in San Diego County reached $489,000 in October, up nearly $100,000 from a year ago and a 44 percent increase from October 2002.

Leamer said the elevated prices are more the result of easy-to-get financing than robust economic growth. In the end, economic growth is needed to support the prices, he said.

There are indications all over the county that the market is already softening. Houses that in April would have sold in six days are staying on the market for 90 days, Teak said. Owners of higher-priced homes are being told to prepare to have their homes on the market for as long as six months.

"Six months ago, if you had a house at $900,000, you would have gotten it," Teak said. "Now you're lucky to get $850,000."

The housing slowdown won't be limited to Southern California and could shave as much as a half-point off the growth in the country's gross national product in 2005, Leamer and others said.

"Housing will be the one sector driving the anticipated slowdown in economic growth next year," said Bill Strauss, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Beyond 2005, economists are concerned about the large number of adjustable-rate mortgages being sold and what would happen if the rates go up. Several are concerned about the growing possibility of a housing-led recession.

Leamer said the only reason a housing bubble didn't burst in the recession of 2001 was aggressive cuts in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve worked to keep mortgage rates low by cutting the federal funds rate from 6 percent to 1 percent from January 2001 to June 2003. Those low interest rates helped push home prices to the point where the ratio of prices to rental rates has reached record highs.

Leamer likens this ratio to the price-to-earnings ratio on a stock. And as anyone who studies the stock market knows, inflated price-to-earnings ratios are often a sign of a coming bust.

"We are in very uncertain times," said Robert Shiller, a Yale economist who studies economic bubbles. "Some of the adjustables (mortgages) people got in a couple years ago are already losing their interest-rate protections."

Shiller sees the possibility of a long, slow slide similar to what happened in Southern California in the 1990s. Los Angeles home prices dropped more than 30 percent from 1991 to 1997, and prices in San Diego dropped nearly 10 percent from 1991 to 1995.

It could get ugly if prices drop and consumers are unable to handle the increased mortgage debt on top of all the installment debt they have piled up in recent years.

"It may well be that the big win for reality and reason will come in 2006," Leamer wrote in his report. "We are talking a recession driven by a plunge in consumer spending on homes and durables."

TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: chickenlittle; goldbuggery; goldbugmoonbat; goldgoldgold; goldmineshaft; realestate
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To: durasell
Correct! :-)

And it's also why,for millenia,bankers and merchants had scales,which they used to weigh all payments with.

101 posted on 12/10/2004 11:23:58 PM PST by nopardons
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To: nanak

It's a trick question. Jefferson was this kind of classical mind that understood many things well and a few things really well. And, he understood them in the context of history. Keynes was focused on a single subject for his entire life.

102 posted on 12/10/2004 11:24:02 PM PST by durasell (Friends are so alarming, My lover's never charming...)
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To: NautiNurse

Did you? Ooooooooo...I'm so jealous! ;-)

103 posted on 12/10/2004 11:25:49 PM PST by nopardons
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To: durasell

For elitist bankers,
Paper Money = Alchemy (which they can create out of thin air and as much and as many as they want)

104 posted on 12/10/2004 11:26:57 PM PST by nanak (Tom Tancredo 2008:Last Hope to Save America)
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To: durasell

Jefferson understood very well the evils of FIAT.

"One who controls the currency controls the country, and we control the currency."---Federal Reserve at the time it was created.

Gold and Economic Freedom

An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense-perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire-that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other.

In order to understand the source of their antagonism, it is necessary first to understand the specific role of gold in a free society.

Money is the common denominator of all economic transactions. It is that commodity which serves as a medium of exchange, is universally acceptable to all participants in an exchange economy as payment for their goods or services, and can, therefore, be used as a standard of market value and as a store of value, i.e., as a means of saving.

The existence of such a commodity is a precondition of a division of labor economy. If men did not have some commodity of objective value which was generally acceptable as money, they would have to resort to primitive barter or be forced to live on self-sufficient farms and forgo the inestimable advantages of specialization. If men had no means to store value, i.e., to save, neither long-range planning nor exchange would be possible.

What medium of exchange will be acceptable to all participants in an economy is not determined arbitrarily. First, the medium of exchange should be durable. In a primitive society of meager wealth, wheat might be sufficiently durable to serve as a medium, since all exchanges would occur only during and immediately after the harvest, leaving no value-surplus to store. But where store-of-value considerations are important, as they are in richer, more civilized societies, the medium of exchange must be a durable commodity, usually a metal. A metal is generally chosen because it is homogeneous and divisible: every unit is the same as every other and it can be blended or formed in any quantity. Precious jewels, for example, are neither homogeneous nor divisible.

More important, the commodity chosen as a medium must be a luxury. Human desires for luxuries are unlimited and, therefore, luxury goods are always in demand and will always be acceptable. Wheat is a luxury in underfed civilizations, but not in a prosperous society. Cigarettes ordinarily would not serve as money, but they did in post-World War II Europe where they were considered a luxury. The term "luxury good" implies scarcity and high unit value. Having a high unit value, such a good is easily portable; for instance, an ounce of gold is worth a half-ton of pig iron.

In the early stages of a developing money economy, several media of exchange might be used, since a wide variety of commodities would fulfill the foregoing conditions. However, one of the commodities will gradually displace all others, by being more widely acceptable. Preferences on what to hold as a store of value, will shift to the most widely acceptable commodity, which, in turn, will make it still more acceptable. The shift is progressive until that commodity becomes the sole medium of exchange. The use of a single medium is highly advantageous for the same reasons that a money economy is superior to a barter economy: it makes exchanges possible on an incalculably wider scale.

Whether the single medium is gold, silver, sea shells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has always been considered a luxury good. It is durable, portable, homogeneous, divisible, and, therefore, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange. Since the beginning of Would War I, it has been virtually the sole international standard of exchange.

If all goods and services were to be paid for in gold, large payments would be difficult to execute, and this would tend to limit the extent of a society's division of labor and specialization. Thus a logical extension of the creation of a medium of exchange, is the development of a banking system and credit instruments (bank notes and deposits) which act as a substitute for, but are convertible into, gold.

A free banking system based on gold is able to extend credit and thus to create bank notes (currency) and deposits, according to the production requirements of the economy. Individual owners of gold are induced, by payments of interest, to deposit their gold in a bank (against which they can draw checks). But since it is rarely the case that all depositors want to withdraw all their gold at the same time, banker need keep only a fraction of his total deposits in gold as reserves. This enables the banker to loan out more than the amount of his gold deposits (which means that he holds claims to gold rather than gold as security for his deposits). But the amount of loans which he can afford to make is not arbitrary: he has to gauge it in relation to his reserves and to the status of his investments.

When banks loan money to finance productive and profitable endeavors, the loans are paid off rapidly and bank credit continues to be generally available. But when the business ventures financed by bank credit are less profitable and slow to pay off, bankers soon find that their loans outstanding are excessive relative to their gold reserves, and they begin to curtail new lending, usually by charging higher interest rates. This tends to restrict the financing of new ventures and requires the existing borrowers to improve their profitability before they can obtain credit for further expansion. Thus, under the gold standard, a free banking system stands as the protector of an economy's stability and balanced growth.

When gold is accepted as the medium of exchange by most or all nations, an unhampered free international gold standard serves to foster a world-wide division of labor and the broadest international trade. Even though the units of exchange (the dollar, the pound, the franc, etc.) differ from country to country, when all are defined in terms of gold the economies of the different countries act as one--so long as there are no restraints on trade or on the movement of capital. Credit, interest rates, and prices tend to follow similar patterns in all countries. For example, if banks in one country extend credit too liberally, interest rates in that country will tend to fall, inducing depositors to shift their gold to higher-interest paying banks in other countries. This will immediately cause a shortage of bank reserves in the "easy money" country, inducing tighter credit standards and a return to competitively higher interest rates again.

A fully free banking system and fully consistent gold standard have not as yet been achieved. But prior to World War I, the banking system in the United States (and in most of the world) was based on gold, and even though governments intervened occasionally, banking was more free than controlled. Periodically, as a result of overly rapid credit expansion, banks became loaned up to the limit of their gold reserves, interest rates rose sharply, new credit was cut off, and the economy went into a sharp, but short-lived recession. (Compared with the depressions of 1920 and 1932, the pre-World War I business declines were mild indeed.) It was limited gold reserves that stopped the unbalanced expansions of business activity, before they could develop into the post- World War I type of disaster. The readjustment periods were short and the economies quickly reestablished a sound basis to resume expansion.

But the process of cure was misdiagnosed as the disease: if shortage of bank reserves was causing a business decline- argued economic interventionists-why not find a way of supplying increased reserves to the banks so they never need be short! If banks can continue to loan money indefinitely--it was claimed--there need never be any slumps in business. And so the Federal Reserve System was organized in 1913. It consisted of twelve regional Federal Reserve banks nominally owned by private bankers, but in fact government sponsored, controlled, and supported. Credit extended by these banks is in practice (though not legally) backed by the taxing power of the federal government. Technically, we remained on the gold standard; individuals were still free to own gold, and gold continued to be used as bank reserves. But now, in addition to gold, credit extended by the Federal Reserve banks (paper reserves) could serve as legal tender to pay depositors.

When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve's attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain's gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates.

The "Fed" succeeded: it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world, in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market-triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed. Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of the 1930's.

With a logic reminiscent of a generation earlier, statists argued that the gold standard was largely to blame for the credit debacle which led to the Great Depression. If the gold standard had not existed, they argued, Britain's abandonment of gold payments in 1931 would not have caused the failure of banks all over the world. (The irony was that since 1913, we had been, not on a gold standard, but on what may be termed "a mixed gold standard"; yet it is gold that took the blame.)

But the opposition to the gold standard in any form-from a growing number of welfare-state advocates-was prompted by a much subtler insight: the realization that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending (the hallmark of the welfare state). Stripped of its academic jargon, the welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemes. A substantial part of the confiscation is effected by taxation. But the welfare statists were quick to recognize that if they wished to retain political power, the amount of taxation had to be limited and they had to resort to programs of massive deficit spending, i.e., they had to borrow money, by issuing government bonds, to finance welfare expenditures on a large scale.

Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited.

The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which-through a complex series of steps-the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets.

The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

105 posted on 12/10/2004 11:30:56 PM PST by nanak (Tom Tancredo 2008:Last Hope to Save America)
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To: nanak

The precious metals market can be manipulated as easily as the paper money market...remember the Hunt boys?

106 posted on 12/10/2004 11:31:15 PM PST by durasell (Friends are so alarming, My lover's never charming...)
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To: nanak
You don't know diddley about this! Americans are getting the jobs,H1B workers ARE needed and there are many Irish and South African IT H1Bs here doing better work than Americans. But all you ever hear the whiners on FR talking about,are Indians.

I'm telling you,with EXPERTS in the field,which you certainly are NOT,that there are so many IT jobs out there,right now,this very minute,and yes, headhunters ARE contacting people listed on MONSTER,that they are going begging. Anyone,ANYONE,in the IT field,who hasn't been able to get a job,this year,can only blame themselves.

107 posted on 12/10/2004 11:34:50 PM PST by nopardons
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To: nopardons


The same old elitist garbage, "let them eat cake."

108 posted on 12/10/2004 11:36:17 PM PST by nanak (Tom Tancredo 2008:Last Hope to Save America)
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To: RedBloodedAmerican

Some good points. Where I live, west of DC, we are experiencing large increases in hopusing values, but not like California. It's the demand. They can't build them fast enough to satisy the growth around here. There is also a huge growth pattern coming here and building won't be able to keep up. It is even hard to find a rental now.

Greenspan is right on. It depends on your local market.

109 posted on 12/10/2004 11:36:46 PM PST by TheLion
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To: durasell; nanak
Boy,do I ever and they were only the LAST ones who tried to "corner the market". But people like nanak,who don't know anything bit catch phrases,just love to come to FR and post about things they neither know anything at all about,nor understand.
110 posted on 12/10/2004 11:38:01 PM PST by nopardons
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To: nopardons
Boy,do I ever and they were only the LAST ones who tried to "corner the market". But people like nanak,who don't know anything bit catch phrases,just love to come to FR and post about things they neither know anything at all about,nor understand.

Oh I forgot, Mr. nopardons arguments have put economic intellects of Thomas Jefferson to shame.

111 posted on 12/10/2004 11:41:11 PM PST by nanak (Tom Tancredo 2008:Last Hope to Save America)
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To: nanak
It's really more than time,that you cone to the realization that you've been bested and in spades,because you don't know anything at all about what you're attempting to be "expert"/even a wee bit knowledgeable about. You've been damned dead wrong a bout almost everything (Fannie Mae is in a bit of troubled,but I bet you really don't know why)you've posted to this thread...including starting this thread with a bogus article.
112 posted on 12/10/2004 11:41:51 PM PST by nopardons
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To: nopardons

It's fear. The system is hideously complex. Three guys in Asia press a button or don't press a button and the value of the dollar sinks or rises. There's a strike on the docks in California and half a dozen retail stocks fall flat. Eight chickens die in Hong Kong and fear of flu spreads through the market...a million pieces of information gets processed through the markets every day and people want something that's "in their hand solid." I don't blame them...

113 posted on 12/10/2004 11:42:38 PM PST by durasell (Friends are so alarming, My lover's never charming...)
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To: nanak
I'm not a "Mr" and you've been told that many times,in your short stay on FR.

Jefferson was personally a financial moron; an impecunious spendthrift,who was one of THE worst shopaholics who ever lived;not to mention a poseur and a hypocrite.

I most assuredly know and understand far more about economics than you do;that's for certain. ;^)

114 posted on 12/10/2004 11:47:29 PM PST by nopardons
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To: durasell

True,true,but it's also stupidity...where the GOLD BUGS are concerned.

115 posted on 12/10/2004 11:49:07 PM PST by nopardons
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To: durasell
I kept wondering who was buying all the exceptionally expensive real estate in San Diego. Most of the high paid techies I knew in the 90's left when the dot bomb bust hit in 2000. My son tells me that many houses are financed by multiple unrelated people. They "state" their income to qualify. Creative financing and a house full of unrelated owners.
116 posted on 12/10/2004 11:52:11 PM PST by Myrddin
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To: nopardons

...being a little hard on Jefferson, aren't we? Don't tell me, you're an Adams kinda guy, right?

fear is stupidity's hand maiden.

The people to blame aren't the gold bugs, but those who profit from their fear. What they do is throw together a rough stew of ancient history, anti-gov't/Fed Reserve distribes, mix in with a little paranoia/fear, season with Jefferson (or some other notable) and serve hot.

117 posted on 12/10/2004 11:53:09 PM PST by durasell (Friends are so alarming, My lover's never charming...)
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To: Myrddin

That's the first I've heard of that. I meant extended families who were related...

118 posted on 12/10/2004 11:55:37 PM PST by durasell (Friends are so alarming, My lover's never charming...)
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To: nopardons
Climbed up to the equivalent of Fort Salt. LOL--we were all so exhausted after the climb, we cracked up when the locals wanted to charge us admission into the castle. Thought they should have paid us for the trouble.

Then we realized we were paying for the view of the real estate below. btw--the cable car wasn't running during our visit. We had the run of the mountain top. Awe inspiring!

119 posted on 12/10/2004 11:57:03 PM PST by NautiNurse
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To: nanak; MeekOneGOP; nopardons

AHHHHHHHHHH. It's the bankers. Wink wink. Finger to the nose.

At first I thought you were a mere troll because there was no answer. Then I read your earlier posts and thought libertarian agitator. Then you threw in the curveball with Keynes being more intellectual than Jefferson. But something stuck out as a red flag...immigrants and IT slaves. Now you press hard with banking/aha!

Got it now. Jeckyl Island. Bank Conspiracies.

The dollar bill = the United States. One can drain the treasury of gold but he cannot drain the USA of the USA.

120 posted on 12/10/2004 11:57:31 PM PST by sully777 (The enemy within pits the constitution against the constitution & capitalism against capitalism)
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