Skip to comments.Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched 'Very Carefully' (1 in 43 odds)
Posted on 12/26/2004 8:33:58 PM PST by shadowman99
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Energy Released: 1381 Megatons
(All of the world's Nuclear Weapons: 10,000 Megatons)
Earthquake Magnitude 7.7 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5)
Crater Diameter: 3.6 km
Crater Depth: 0.4 km
A collision this large occurs roughly once every 12,000 years.
Data source: http://janus.astro.umd.edu/astro/impact/ (new window)
I will be 75, but I already don't care at 55 , so no worries from me lol. By the way the ending was cool as hell, I mean what can you do? You might as well enjoy the grandeur of it all.
Possible reference to AC Clarke's "Light of Other Days", perhaps?
This also means that its relative speed is not that great. This will limit the damage on impact as we use a series of large nukes to adjust its landing point to precisely...Mecca.
Wonder what the uncertainty is on size....1/4 mile diameter, +/- 1/4 mile? Be nice to know possible projected impact regions soon.....Terhan??
So....what is Bush doin' 'bout this and when did he find out about it, hmmmm!?
Bt the way I had an unnerving dream 2 nights ago about an asteroid striking nearby with an unimaginable explosion. My whole house with me in it was literaly and with great forrce blown high into the air. Shivers. I don't know if this was cause an effect, or effect and cause lmao.
I actually witnessed an inbound meteorite many years ago in Huntsville , Alabama. There was a flash of light bright as day(it was around 8 p.m. ), and the light flashed overhead at a great rate. Later we all found that an asteroid had come down somewhere in Kentecky that night.
351 cu in Cleveland engine; 4-bbl carb; limited slip differential (3:25:1); C-6 transmission; extra transmission oil cooler.
The air cleaner housing had a second opening in the side, vacuum-operated, that would open to allow more air, when you leaned into the throttle.
Car was light brown-gold metalic with buckskin interior. Console w' shifter.
14 mpg in town, maybe 19 on the highway.
A friend of mine, at the same time that I ordered mine, ordered for his wife, a four door Torino with the complete Police Package; a genuine "sleeper."
That Torino could really move.
I think its doing around 15 km/sec. Thats moving pretty quick.
I was really hoping it would hit here in about 2006 --- 41:09:34N 73:45:55W
I was just thinking about that. Is there any way to know for certain that's not exactly what happened earlier today?
Any geologists here to take a stab at that?
Definitely an incredible work of science fiction. A favorite of mine from an early age :)
Not to mention the Browns and the Superbowl . . .
I guess since the global warming thing has been pretty thoroughly debunked, the catastrophists need a new living.
We all gonna die!
My wife just old me the same thing for cookies and ice cream. Or could it be that she wants me to lose weight? Nah, I know it's the asteroid...
She's hoping if you slim down you won't be such a good target for the asteroid. That woman's a saint! :)
And it's a Friday the 13th too!
1 in 43 is still a big yawner.
Give me 1 in 10 and it will be time to sit up.
You're kidding right? A 400 meter diameter asteroid impact would make those events seem trivial by any destructive standards.
Man, time flies.
you are kidding me....lol.
book of revelation.
a star called "wormwood" crashes into the earth in the end times and kills one third of life on the planet.
if clarke used it in one of his stories, he probably got it from there...
nothing new under the sun.
I will periodically bump this thread for the next twenty-four years.
Its a little more complicated than that, but roughly true. They have not been able to nail down some of the parameters that would allow them to get at some extremely precise orbital elements. They'll be hovering around 1:43 until they get some better sensors looking at it; right now, that represents the margin of error for the models based on a lack of important parameters e.g. the rotational period and axis relative to the sun. It isn't as though they can't produce exceedingly precise orbital predictions but that they do not trust some of the data they have so far. Some of the unofficial analyses on the same data that tries to adjust for dubious data or bad calibration and giving missing parametric data "statistically representative" values is putting impact probability at closer to 1:20. But we still need better data, which will require the asteroid to be visible in the northern hemisphere to a significant extent, something which will happen in a bit. Right now, the rock is hovering around the South Pole.
Most folks are currently giving the diameter to be a quarter-mile +/- a factor of 3 i.e. it could be 3/4 of a mile in diameter (a country killer there). The photometric calibrations have been completely hosed, leading to data that is pretty uncertain for the size calculation. Once they sort this out with a ton of high-quality measurements, I get the impression that the feeling is that this rock could actually be a bit larger than currently estimated. We'll know soon enough, but the current margin of error on the size is huge and the people examining the calibration of the current data seem to think that they may have underestimated the size. A lot of the data currently being collected is pretty amateur because the asteroid is so deep in the southern hemisphere.
A >1km diameter asteroid would be substantially more catastrophic than the current size estimate suggests.
So what? Does that mean everybody is going to commit suicide and rob banks, rape and pillage?
13000 died this weekend in tsunamis. With warning of even a few hours few would have died. With warning of a few weeks no one would have died.
With warning of a few weeks we could mount massive computer simulations to determine a fairly prcise point of impact and do mass evacuations.
People can handle this stuff if they are simply told about it. The idea that we need government to hide the truth from us is frankly rather insulting to me, but if that's what gets you thru the night, you're welcome to it.
Impact probability has been revised upward per JPL/NASA, now 2.7% (1:37 roughly). As I mentioned in other threads, much of the margin of error is mecessary due to suspect calibrations and missing parameters for the orbital models. Once we get the data problem sorted out, the orbital elements should solidify very nicely.
Nuclear won't do it either. When Nukes go off on earth, its the shock wave and heat that do the most damage. Out in space even hitting one side of a rather large asteroid may do a little melting but since a nuke in space would be mostly heat and light, there is no kinetic shock energy to break up the asteroid or to make it change course. Even if you could land on the asteroid to bury it or drill deep to place it, there is no air in the rock of said asteroid, just solid matter, so there is no guarantee that a nuke would do more than melt the rock on the inside....though melting the rock to vaporisation from the inside out may cause it to explode from the various gasses and pressures produced. This would create showers of meteors that would be very hard to predict in terms of impact. Smaller asteroids a mile or less may very well be destroyed easily this way but very large ones such as greater than one mile to hundreds of miles would need more more long range work.
Simply throwing missiles at them won't destroy them.
Wait....wait... We're picking up something.... the transmission reads: "beep beep boop beep boop..."
I read that book. It was a good one.
Ping me in 2028.
Personally, if it has to hit I hope it hits either Tehran or Beijing.
IMO: Results will be the same for all of us, Asia or North America.
Let's all build those 1962 bomb shelters now......
Hope the Chiefs win the Super Bowl by then. If 2030 is going to be their year I will be TICKED OFF!
When I lived in Alabama (late 1970s), the average State Trooper drove a Grand Torino with a full race cam. No sense in a citizen even trying to outrun those bad boys.
One of my favorite books.
Sounds very interesting, do you have a link for the thread you can post?
A few 1-ton objects guided to kinetic impact at orbital velocity on its way in, would likely break it up into a manageable cluster of rocks.
You don't need to obliterate it, just break it up enough that the pieces mostly burn up in the atmosphere
But it's not uncommon for meteorites to hit us with a relative speed of 150 km/sec or more. The Arizona crater was formed by a sliver approximately the size of a cruise ship. This new object is traveling in an orbit that is similar to the Earth's own orbit. This means a low relative speed, and also that it will be relatively easy for Bruce Willis to soft-land on it and drill holes.
> Out in space even hitting one side of a rather large asteroid may do a little melting but since a nuke in space would be mostly heat and light, there is no kinetic shock energy to break up the asteroid or to make it change course.
You are incorrect. One thing you may want to look up: "Project Orion." It is something I have spent years researching, even to the point of getting quoted and some of my writing referenced in George Dyson's book of the same name. In short, Orion was the Coolest Propulsion System Ever: toss a nuke out the back of your spaceship, set it off, ride the blast, repeat. One 0.5 kiloton yield nuke every second or so would provide up to 8,000 to 16,000 *tons* of thrust.
In short, there are two ways to use a nuke to provide thrust:
1) Shock. Yes, there is no air in space. But the bomb itself is not converted to pure energy; it it for the most part converted to megadegree plasma. Orion pulse unit desings would be marvelous items for asteroid nudging. You build a bomb that has propellant on one side of it... propellant being something like water or polyethylene. (Orion used tungsten. even though the very high molecular weight of tungsten reduced the specific impulse available, the extreme density of the stuff made packaging *far* easier.)
When the bomb goes off, the radiation in the form of X-rays and neutrons can be modestly focussed into the propellant. As a result, the propellant is raised to several million degrees in microseconds, and explodes. Proper shaping of the propellant will give you a shaped charge effect... the propellant will turn into a jet of plasma moving at a good fraction of the speed of light. This jet, several *hundred* or *thousand* pounds, moving at maybe 5% lightspeed, will pack a massive wallop. Stand you bomb off from the asteroid however many miles required so that the jet spreads out as much as it can; this will spread the impulse over the largest possible surface and help reduce the chances of breaking the asteroid apart.
2) Ablation: build your nuke to emit as much energy as possible int the form of a narrow beam, again likely using shaped-charge principles. Put you bomb reasonable close to the surface and set it off. The result will be that one specific spot on the asteroid willbe converted to plasma, much as int the first case. This plasma explodes out of the asteroid, and serves as a brief but powerful rocket engine.
Total impulse per bomb can be far higher with 2) than with 1). However, by localizing the blombs effects on the asteroid, you stand a greater chances of simply shattering the asteroid. This is probably not what you want to do.
And then there's always the "Medusa* approach to moving an asteroid with nukes. But that's more complex.
"and Planet Earth is a sitting duck!"
Exactly. Time to make this baby more maneuverable!
Well you just proved my point...nukes alone wouldn't do it. Nukes designed as you suggest would be rechanneled into various forms of kinetic or coherent beamed energy that would do the job!
Huh? I never suggested that. Those are your words.
13000 died this weekend in tsunamis.
Yeah, this too would be small potatoes compared to a 400 meter asteroid impacting earth. Even with warning. The events you mentioned are not even in the same ball park. An asteroid of that size would be off the scale. Trust me.