Marburg Toll in Angola Rises to 237 - 11 in Luanda

Recombinomics ^ | April 12, 2005 | Recombinomics Commentary

[ordinaryguy]

According to this article, they are watching 361.

http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/News/0,,2-11-1447_1688861,00.html

[Heatseeker]

The following also unchanged and hardly requires comment: "No U.S. travel restrictions to the affected area are recommended at this time."

I think maybe I'll call them tomorrow morning, identify myself as a representative of the World Barenaked Medtechs & Reusable Syringe Promotion Society, and thank them for making me feel comfortable about traveling to northern Angola for our convention, especially since I've really had a hankering for some tasty raw bushmeat lately.

[Covenantor]

It is awkward writing. Here's my re-cap(cases refers to victims still living)

Uige 202 dead

Kwanza Sul 6 dead + 6 cases

Luanda 5 dead + 11 cases

Zaire province 5 dead + 6 cases

Mananje 2 dead +4 cases

Cabinda 1 dead + 1 case

Kwanza Norte 1 dead +1 case

[AntiGuv]

Hmmm.. How does the Marburg get to the exclave of Cabinda without getting to the 'Democratic' Congo?? I suppose it's quite plausible, but still..

[Judith Anne]

place bump.

[Covenantor]

See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1381928/posts?page=32#32

for larger scale map with roads. You'll see that there are roads that connect Uige via DRC. Since both Uige and Cabinda have coffee plantations i assume that there is a fair amount of contact between the two. Although I would also be worried about a coastal freighter between Luanda's port and Cabinda. I don't know where in Cabinda the cases are.

[AntiGuv]

More notably, there's a road of approximately equal distance connecting Uige to Kinshasa/Brazzaville - with a combined population of 6+ million..

[united1000]

Wasn't there a case in Portugal that has since died as well? Of those cases verified or in quarantine that have been outside of Africa, there has been nothing but silence.

[Judith Anne]

Thank you very much for your work. It is really appreciated.

[Judith Anne]

I read, and can't remember where, of two cases in Portugal. I hadn't heard that one died, but it wouldn't be surprising.

And STILL no word about the 9 cases in Italy under isolation quarantine.

[Boundless]

> Of those cases verified or in quarantine that have been
> outside of Africa, there has been nothing but silence.

If there are any (and if there aren't, it's probably just
a matter of time), expect massive official omerta until
news can no longer be contained, particularly from
countries hosting any appreciable amount of tourism
(like Portugal).

They may think that they can silently contain incoming
cases in hospital.

[Covenantor]

Here's the updated Marburg Angola plot 2 as prepared by 2ndreconmarine

[Covenantor]

ping for 2ndreconmarine new Marburg 2 plot

[2ndreconmarine]

Thank you.

I should point out to all those interested in the statistics, the Pearsons Correlation Coefficient for the fit was R^2 = .998

[2ndreconmarine]

Whoops.

I should point out on the second curve, that it is the projection to May 31, not May 1

/embarrassed

[AntiGuv]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that projection through June 1 (or May 30)?

[AntiGuv]

Never mind then! (and, yes!, I do know how many days are in May......)

[AntiGuv]

So, what are the actual # of cases projected by your data points for April 30 and May 31 respectively?

[Boundless]

> So, what are the actual # of cases projected by your
> data points for April 30 and May 31 respectively?

Or put another way, can you do the vertical (#cases)
as a logarithmic scale. Is the "curve" then a
straight line?

[2ndreconmarine]

So, what are the actual # of cases projected by your data points for April 30 and May 31 respectively?

April 30: 1,778
May 31: 51,140