PRESIDENT COULD END UP THE BIG WINNER (Senate judge deal)

NY POST ^ | May 24, 2005 | DEBORAH ORIN Analysis

[Timeout]

Well, I believe Frist had the votes. And I think the DEMS believed he had the votes...otherwise they would never have signed on to this deal.

You say Frist "had seven votes split from the party line. It is absurd to think that he had the votes". I think at least 3 of those 7 would have stuck with Frist if the Dem moderates hadn't caved (pulling Reid's chestnuts out of the fire).

[bray]

Sen InSane has proved once again that he does not have the backbone to be President. He would cave to the UN just as quickly.

Pray for W and Our Troops

[Redleg Duke]

Makes sense to me also.

[demlosers]

"Nominees should only be filibustered under extraordinary circumstances, and each signatory must use his or her own discretion and judgment in determining whether such circumstances exist."

In the immortal words of Bill Clinton, "It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is. . . . "

[Timeout]

I take that as a high complement coming from you. Your detailed knowledge in this debate has been invaluable. Many times, when I found myself reacting emotionally, your posts brought me back to the rational side of the issue.

[Redleg Duke]

Excellent points. I see strategery here.

[MamaLucci]

Please ping me to your analysis. Thanks.

[CasearianDaoist]

But if they had the votes then why make the deal in the first place?

[Miss Marple]

Why make the deal? Because they really didn't want to vote. They managed to convince the rats to go with this deal (which I don't like) in order to avoid having to participate. Had they failed in the deal, they would have reluctantly voted with the majority (except for McCain).

[Peach]

Timeout...I respect your insights and comments. I have to wonder, however, if this is such a good deal for Republicans just why Frist was so angry last night on the floor of the Senate.

I don't believe it would be because power was wrested away from him...he's not your typical power hungry guy in D.C.

[AFPhys]

"McCain needs to go. He is a disruptive force in the party. You can't tell me that without McCain, those other weenies would have had enough nerve to do this."

THE most important comment I've read since yesterday evening.

I can't get angry about Snowe, Collins or Chaffee (leopards don't change their spots) but the other four have just made a boatload of money for their primary opponents - and the RNC and RSSC has lost that dough.

McCain deserves a special place, though. It is not anywhere in the universe in which I live. Just wait until he comes a'callin' for funding.

Other than this stuff, though, I'm not as gloomy about what the results of this are likely to be. If, as some predict, blockages of the president's nominees dwindle drastically, the President wins big time. I'm willing to wait and see - and as much as we at FR are focusing on the RINOs, those DINOs involved in the deal deserve some attention, too... they are now extremely vulnerable from their base --- and from ours. In addition, comments I've seen make it real possible that this is quite a fragile deal that some of the PubbieWorms may be willing to scuttle at the first sign of abusing the "extraordinary circumstances". I'm going to wait to see just how this plays out for a few months before judging on the effects it will actually have.

[Cboldt]

Here is a blast from the recent past. Note the second point in the bulleted list.

Frist Said to Have 'Nuclear Option' Votes
Posted by Cboldt to California Patriot
On News/Activism 05/23/2005 1:27:16 AM EDT 176 of 190

I have advocated that cloture (Rule XXII) not be invoked, and have a list of concepts, reasons, signals, etc. that support my reasoning. I also speculated that cloture would be avoided, and as we now know, I was completely wrong in that speculation.

• Using cloture puts some control of the matter in DEM hands. If the cloture motion passes because a handful of DEMs support it, the minority retains the abilities to: block a future nominee; and create this same tiresome ruckus all over again.
• The public is conditioned to see the GOP as wielding the nuclear trigger. If cloture passes, the trigger is not executed, and many in the GOP base will (incorrectly) perceive GOP weakness.
• One of the purposes of cloture, in fact the reason it exists, is to limit debate. Frist indicates no intention to limit debate on the nominee, hence, no need for cloture.
• The rights to unlimited debate and to withold consent to vote are designed to facilitate compromise. But in a nominee, no adjustment can be made. Compromise is an inapplicable notion when the matter under consideration is a nominee. The nominee is either suitable for the post, or not. "Yes or no," is the only question.
  http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1404953/posts?page=13#13
• Trading the 60 vote supermajority to take a vote (of cloture) for unanimous consent (the underlying Senate tradition) forces individual Senators to individually object to voting, and defend their individual "right" to deny rendering their judgement on a nominee. That is, a single Senator withholding consent to the vote will CLEARLY be seen as an abuse of Senatorial discretion, where cloture is NOT clearly seen as extreme.
• If cloture fails, and the vote is to proceed anyway, having invoked Rule XXII creates a risk of falling into the rules change pitfall, where 2/3rd supermajority is required to change a rule.
• Avoiding the use or change of Rule XXII in the context of a nominee would retain cloture, as it is, for legislative matters.
• The Senate has no right to withhold a vote when the vote is on a matter that affects another branch. In this case, a minority of Senators are rejecting an officer of the president's choosing - it should take a simple majority of Senators to reject.
• Senate practice regarding traties, as reflected in Riddick's, implements the principle above. Instead of requiring a simple majority to put off a vote on a treaty, Riddick's notes a 2/3rds majority vote requirement.
  http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1407096/posts?page=29#29
• Moving ahead without invoking cloture can be spun to the gullible public as a "compromise," (see, we didn't change the rules) saving face for the DEMs and RINO's.

[prairiebreeze]

An interesting post at redstate.org. The only thing that makes me squeamish is the knowlege that the Pubs have to apply consistency and follow through to keep the RATS in line.

That feels like standing atop a wobbly chair at this moment, but we shall see.

[niteowl77]

McCain is no threat to conservatives, in a presidential race.

Agreed.

[SuziQ]

In my opinion, the only real victory would be that the president nominates one of these three judges to the US Supreme Court.
I don't think the democrats could stand against him/her after already passing the candidate through once before.

Don't think they won't try!

[CasearianDaoist]

But this assumes that the other 48 are solidly voting the other way. What reason is their to believe that? It is just a plausible to imagine that the 7 are creating cover for more RINOS in the senate (eg. Spectre and the like.)

And why would they not want the vote? It would make life much easier for them.

I am not convinced at all. I think this will be seen as the beginning of the end of the conservative movement as a mainstream force in US politics, and I think that this will also mark the beginning of a very real perception that Bush is a lame duck,

If Bush were smart he would make plenty of recess appointments ASAP.

[demlosers]

I hope you are correct. The rats may have neutered themselves even though they still retain the rule to filibuster judges.

[smiley]

....I suspect this was what really was behind the deal that McCain made with the Democrats.....he wants to run for President and simply knocked some of the wind out of Frist's sails on his own bid to run for President...typical of McCain, isn't it?

[Bahbah]

I'll be posting a "Report from Chappaqua" later this morning...

I hope you can ping me when you do. I can use all of the cheering up that I can get right now.

[kittymyrib]

There is something in McCain's FBI file that he doesn't want revealed. It's either pertaining to his POW years or the Keating 5 deal. There is no other explanation for his stabbing the President in the back like this. As for that crapweasel, Graham, he wouldn't have been elected senator if not for President Bush. What a sleazy ingrate! Thank God he's not from Texas or we would have to tar and feather him today.