Skip to comments.The Proof Is In The Pudding
Posted on 06/02/2005 3:43:42 PM PDT by strategofr
In 1961 KGB Major Anatoliy Golitsyn defected to America. He became the most controversial Russian defector of the Cold War. He first ran into difficulties when he said there were KGB agents within the CIA. This sent chills through the slumbering bureaucrats.
A controversy bubbled within our own intelligence community. Some disliked Golitsyn, having strong feelings against the idea of traitors and moles in their midst. The chief of CIA counterintelligence, James Angleton, took Golitsyn seriously and did a number of tests (by leaking information to groups of CIA officers to see if this information reached the Russians).
According to Edward Jay Epstein, in his book entitled, "Deception: the Invisible War Between the KGB and CIA," these tests proved there were moles and traitors at the CIA. Deeply entrenched within our own intelligence community, these Russian agents were trained to avoid detection. Information was not passed to the Russians whenever Angleton was about to narrow the list of suspects.
Like most bureaucratic organizations, the CIA could not face the truth. Angleton's views were resented. In 1974 the CIA's new boss, William Colby, began to zero in on Angleton. Colby later admitted to journalist David Wise: "Yeah, I was trying to ease ... (Angleton) out."
In order to accomplish this, Colby began to reorganize the CIA. This reorganization weakened CIA counterintelligence, destroying Angleton's effectiveness. Colby then engaged in a further intrigue. In December 1974 he met with reporter Seymour Hersh of the New York Times. Colby confirmed a story Hersh was working on about CIA domestic spying.
Such spying is against the rules and Angleton was implicated. Hersh left Colby's office and rushed to telephone Abe Rosenthal, his boss at the Times. "Abe, I got it," said Hersh. The story led to the resignation of Angleton. America's secret war was lost.
Director of Central Intelligence William Colby, who met his fate 21 years later in a suspicious canoeing accident, came under counterattack after Angleton left the agency. According to David Wise's account: "It began to be whispered around Washington that Colby was the mole (Angleton had been looking for). But somehow the rumors could never be tied to Angleton directly."
With the fall of Angleton, Golitsyn's warnings about Russian deception strategy were officially and finally discredited. A few years later, Angleton and Golitsyn went to William F. Buckley, a former CIA officer and editor of National Review. Angleton wanted Buckley's help in putting together a book -- "New Lies for Old" -- which would detail the mechanisms of Russian deception and warn the West of the dangers.
Buckley later satirized his meeting with Angleton and Golitsyn in a National Review column. Buckley would have nothing to do with "New Lies for Old." In his view Angleton and Golitsyn were demented.
Even from the vantage point of the early 1990s Buckley did not appreciate Golitsyn's incredible accuracy as an analyst. Like many former CIA officers, Buckley assumed -- without checking -- that Angleton was wrong. The germ of anti-paranoia ravaged the CIA after Angleton. It infected nearly everyone. Think about this for a moment; anti-paranoia is harmful to the very mission of America's intelligence community.
Last week I had a long talk with a former CIA official. The subject of Angleton and Golitsyn came up. Here again the blindness of our people emerged. This former CIA official predictably described Angleton as "paranoid." Such a label discredits a person without appeal.
In this context we ought to remember that a CIA counterintelligence chief must -- like Sherlock Holmes -- hold to his suspicions. The easiest smear against such a person, therefore, is the word "paranoia." The British writer Tom Mangold, who wrote a book on Angleton entitled, "Cold Warrior," used paranoia as a theme and a battering ram to destroy Angleton's reputation.
By blurring the distinction between the professional suspicions of a spy-catcher and the inner demons of a crazy person, Mangold painted a vivid portrait of madness and self-destruction. But the greatest lie that Mangold told in his book, and the most unforgivable, was the lie that Golitsyn was a false prophet.
"As a crystal-ball gazer," wrote Mangold, "Golistyn has been unimpressive." Mangold listed six predictions by Golitsyn that failed to come true. Six failed predictions out of 145. Mangold forgot to mention the 139 predictions that proved correct.
Without William F. Buckley's literary assistance, Golitsyn wrote his predictions down in "New Lies for Old." The book was published by Dodd, Mead #Company in 1984 under the subtitle, "The Communist Strategy of Deception and Disinformation." In 366 pages Golitsyn described how the KGB had developed a machinery of deception in the late 1950s. The purpose of this KGB machinery was to eventually erect a false democracy and a false market economy in Russia. Through secret agents and KGB-controlled anti-Soviet fronts, the Communist Party Soviet Union would continue to rule the former Soviet empire from behind the scenes.
Golitsyn's description of controlled democratization and liberalization in Russia was so close to the actual events, which occurred from late 1989 through 1991, that researcher Mark Riebling, author of "Wedge: The Secret War Between the FBI and CIA," credited Golitsyn with 94 percent accuracy.
Since that time Golitsyn's accuracy has increased further. His prediction that Russia and China would unite into "one clenched fist" at the end of the final phase of the long-range strategy has come true. Now Golitsyn has proved correct in 140 out of 145 predictions.
In the last few months we have seen Russia engaged in a series of military mobilizations under the cover of the crisis in Dagestan and Chechnya. At the outset of this crisis Yeltsin appointed a new prime minister -- Vladimir Putin, chief of the Russian secret police. Putin is a militaristic tough guy, allied to the Russia General Staff, committed to mobilizing Russia's military industrial complex.
Once again Anatoliy Golitsyn proves to be a prophet of incredible accuracy. A fellow researcher sent me a note the other day, pointing to page 229 of Golitsyn's book, "The Perestroika Deception." On this page Golitsyn predicts how a war in Chechnya would be used by Kremlin strategists to accomplish a leadership change.
Golitsyn writes of "the military/nationalist option as the third course upon which the Kremlin strategists might embark in (the) future to adjust the style and leadership of a new government if, for example, Yeltsin was considered to have exhausted his usefulness in extracting concessions from the West."
Golitsyn adds that "the Chechnyan 'crisis' can be seen not as a likely cause of a military coup, but as a possible planned prelude to a change of government." But this nationalist government, says Golitsyn, would be Communist at its core. Nationalism is simply a motivational device to jump-start the old Soviet machinery. The Russian people are more energized by nationalism than by Marxism-Leninism, so the trick is to use the slogans and propaganda which most efficiently serve the cause of militarization.
That is the key to Putin's policy. That is why "the Bear" faction in the Duma has been given life -- as the second strongest political party after the Communists. Golitsyn's analysis goes further: "Since an outright military or nationalist government might prejudice the flow of Western aid and the continued 'cooperation' with the West ... it is more likely that the Kremlin strategists will opt for ... a new President and Commander-in-Chief with a military background and a 'reformist' Prime Minister, in the context of overtly tighter KGB control."
Although Putin is a paramilitary KGB careerist, he is perceived as an ally of Russia's General Staff. He therefore fits Golitsyn's description. Furthermore, we now find that the man emerging as Putin's chief lieutenant and future prime minister also fits Golitsyn's description.
Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov has become Putin's deputy prime minister and -- most probably -- Russia's future prime minister.
Kasyanov is said to speak English, and he has extensive relations with Western financiers. He is polished, likable and a good negotiator. Who else could do a better job of keeping Western money flowing into Russia? According to a Jan. 11 Moscow Times story entitled, "Kasyanov Given Chance to Prove His Mettle," Western investors think that Kasyanov's rise is a green light to pouring further billions down Russia's economic rat-hole.
"The markets have reacted to his appointment positively," said Arnab Das, a market analyst with JP Morgan.
Those who continue to ignore Golitsyn's accuracy do so at their own risk. Such people are being slowly but surely discredited themselves, however smug they now appear. Golitsyn was so prescient in his predictions about a Chechen war leading to a change in the Russian government, that he even got the details right. "The transition might be brought about," said Golitsyn, "by the resignation of Yeltsin. ..."
Those who reject Golitsyn's warnings about Russia object to his statements about secret collusion between Russia and China. That collusion is now happening in plain view. When are we going to wake up? The man who predicted it all should be listened to. Golitsyn understands how the Kremlin strategists think.
In our own private lives we discover that knowing a person enables us to predict that person's future actions. But if we are constantly wrong in predicting those actions, maybe we don't know the person after all. With Golitysn it is clear. He knows the mind of the Kremlin. He can therefore predict how the Kremlin will act in the future.
Those in Washington who have failed, time and time again, to predict Kremlin actions have only proved that they do not understand Russia.
One of Golitsyn's most basic statements about Russia and China goes to the heart of the matter. It is the deeper truth we must never lose sight of. "American military and intelligence analysts," writes Golitsyn, "having accepted democratic 'reforms' in Russia as genuine, have lowered their guard with respect to disinformation and have failed to detect its continuation."
And what is the purpose of this disinformation? Golitsyn's explanation is basic: "The Russian and Chinese leaders are still committed to their objective of world domination and believe that, disguised as 'democrats' ... they will be able to achieve it." Those who have written against Angleton and Golitsyn have missed the bottom line.
If Golitsyn's predictions have been accurate, if his analysis continues to withstand the test of time, then the critics must eventually revise their criticism. There is no rational argument against a man who has proven himself again and again.
J.R. Nyquist is a WorldNetDaily contributing editor and author of 'Origins of the Fourth World War.'
Not to just extol how smart he is---though he is very, very smart. He has an advantage over the average analyst---he was in the KGB from the 1952 to 1961---highly ranked practically from the start due to his brilliance and creativity.
Above all, it is the information he has, and how he has applied it.
I have only read to page 81 of New Lies for Old (1984) and glanced at The Perestroika Deception (1995), but I am overwhelmed. Beyond Suvorov and Pacepa, though congruent with them.
One quick warning---The Perestroika Deception (1995) is only a reproduction of memorandums Golitsyn wrote, and I paid like $30 for it. While I am completely happy with it, I can't recommend it to the general public on a dollar-for-value basis. I don't want to be too negative---it is 248 pages of small print. And of course, it is a later publication.
Nonetheless, most would want to start with New Lies for Old, which costed $14. This is more of a real book--explaining his thinking.
Briefly, Golitsyn says that the years 1953-1957 were a time of tremendous upheaval and vulnerability in the Communist world. From 1948 to 57, there was the famous break between the Soviet Union and Tito---a real event.
In '50-53, there was a real break between Russia and China. I believe Stalin died in 53, if I am interpreting and remembering correctly.
Golitsyn says the breaks with Tito (Yugoslavia) and China were caused by Stalinism---Stalin's attempt to rgidily impose his (the Soviet Union's) will throughout the Communist world.
Golitsyn says (remember, he was there, ranking high in the KGB) that around 1957, everything was all patched up and resolved in the Communist world, due to a new system of local autonomy for all Communist parties outside the Soviet Union. (Clearly, there would have been more autonomy for China than Poland, but I haven't caught him laying that aspect out.)
The question of Stalinism was also resolved---it was terminated. However, it was decided that these issues would be kept going---on a 100% fake basis. All Western intelligence agencies missed this completely---in part because they were all penetrated by the Soviets! In addition, Golitsyn says that the dissident movement in Russia was a KGB operation---utilized to control society by constantly bringing in anyone who really wanted to rebel and dealing with them easily---cause most of the dissidents were KGB agents.
He makes the same charge (in Perestroika) about the Tienemen Square movement being controlled by the Chinese government. Eyewitness accounts provide various evidence. Demonstrators sang the Internationale, signs proclaimed obedience to the Communist government.
Apparently, things went "out of control" when real protesters started spontaneously entering the demonstration. At this point, according to eyewitness reports, the original demonstrators joined hands and, singing the Internationale, walked from the square, leaving the new spontaneous demonstrators there alone. These were then massacred.
In addition, Golitsyn predicted in writing, years before the Chechyn outbreak, that the Soviets would stage a fake Chechyn rebellion.
I am overwhelmed by Golitsyn.
To exit from my Ping list, just send me one request to that effect, public or private.
The expression is "the proof of the pudding is in the tasting", not "the proof is in the pudding". The latter is meaningless.
Extremely interesting. Thanks.
I would add to this little summer reading list, the following, quite rare, books:
1. "We Will Bury You" - Jan Sejna
2. "Icebreaker" = Viktor Suvrorov
3. "The ABM Treaty Charade" - W. L. Lee
Being paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.
I believe that Kissinger said of Nixon, "Paranoids have enemies too."
It is interesting that at least the French were convinced that Golitsyn knew what he was talking about. He broke the news that the French SDECE was infiltrated by the "Sapphire Ring". His information led to the arrest of Georgi Paques in 1963. However, the French potentates allowed the "big fish" in the SDECE to get away.
"The expression is "the proof of the pudding is in the tasting", not "the proof is in the pudding". The latter is meaningless."
Good point. I did not write the title, myself, just transcribed it from the website. However, it is interesting that this old quote has been degraded.
Another example is "No rest for the weary." The real quote is 'No rest for the wicked" (sounds Biblical, but don't know origin.) Originally, it was no doubt a bitter statement. Then people started applying it to themselves when they were tired, to be funny. Then as people's sense of humor faded, it had to be watered down to its meaningless form.
I read a bio on Angleton. Fascinating man.
Thanks for the suggestions. I have 3 Suvorov books already, (aquarium, gru, and spetsnaz), but am unfamiliar with:
2. "Icebreaker" = Viktor Suvrorov
Please tell me a bit about it.
"I believe that Kissinger said of Nixon, "Paranoids have enemies too.""
I recall the K quote this way:
"Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean that people aren't out to get you."
Thanks for saving me the trouble of pointing that out. If Mr. Nyquist can't bother himself to get the saying correct, I won't bother myself to read his article. (And the fact that it's from WND merely hastens my exit from the thread.... ;-)
"His information led to the arrest of Georgi Paques in 1963. However, the French potentates allowed the "big fish" in the SDECE to get away."
I am unfamiliar with this part of history but it is interesting to me also. Sounds like there were 2 factions in French intelligence, legit and compromised. The legit forces scored an early victory, but ultimately lost to the compromised forces.
If it had gone differently in Intelligence, perhaps the course of France would have been different.
I agree with all of your points. In response to this statement,
"Even if the Soviet Union is gone from the world stage..."
I would refer you a quote from an article in the Wall Street Journal, page 1, Wednesday, February 23, 2005:
"Mr. Putin him self served more than 15 years in the KGB and later headed its successor, the FSB. Since taking over the Kremlin in 2000, he has presided over an unprecedented influx of ex-KGB men into the upper echelons of power---men whose formative years were spent learning how to undermine the West's interests.
Prominent among the ex-KGB officials who now pace the Kremlin's corridors are Defense minister Sergei Ivanov, Interior Minister Rahid Nurgaliev, and FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev, as well as the heads of Russia's arms-export, defense-procurement, and drug-enforcement agencies. A close Putin aide and former KGB man, Victor Ivano, serves on the board of flagship airline OAO Aeroflot. A favorite parlor game in Russia is to divine which other senior officials and businessmen have suspicious gaps in their resume that suggest a past with the intelligence services."
In other words, the Soviet Union is gone, but the organization that penetrated the West is alive and well, and ruling Russia!
Unfortunately, Golitsyn is 79 years old now (if alive) and his recent stuff does not focus on what is happening domestically in America, as I beleive it would if he was younger and more able to switch focus. However, he does mention the KGB influence on US society. His references, though few and brief, are telling.