Skip to comments.The China Bubble: part one
Posted on 08/19/2005 9:02:46 AM PDT by headsonpikes
Many are hopeful the threat of an economic slowdown will force the party to speed up much-needed reforms, but others remain skeptical. The government is relatively untested when it comes to stick-handling delicate fiscal matters, and its ability to make quick, informed decisions is bogged down by a glacial adherence to consensus-building and a generation of leaders born of the immensely destructive Cultural Revolution.
That raises many frightening possibilities, not just for China but for all those investors who've pumped billions into its rickety institutions. "If the Chinese banks collapse, the whole world economy collapses," Wilson warns. "The world economy is very dependent on China in ways we still don't completely fathom, and we won't for another five or 10 years." We do, however, know this: when Japan arrived at its day of reckoning, the rest of the world escaped relatively unscathed, and the lessons learned faded quickly. Should the same fate befall China, the pain will be spread far and wide. It's not something we're likely to forget.
(Excerpt) Read more at macleans.ca ...
Stepping down from the economic heights, in China there is no equivalent of say, a Dun & Bradstreet to inform businesses of the credit-worthiness of customers and suppliers. A well-connected little Canadian/Chinese company is filling the breach.
Potentially bad for us, definitely bad for China.
One can only hope.
This sounds like good news to me. A shaky China cannot spend so much on the military. Russia found out that a world power needs cash.
Housing bubble, China bubble, I am going to loose track!
Notice that soon after Clinton came to power the reporting here changed.
Curious thing about that.
China's troubles may be the reason so many US investors are turning to India..
The many businessmen I know who commute from Canada to China are very optimistic about prospects there.
The Chinese will survive the upcoming collapse of socialist institutions quite well, imo, provided that the new civil society entities they are creating mature sufficiently prior to the approaching, and unavoidable state banking crisis.
Which reminds of the cartoon where the guy who was headed out the door to go to work, comes back in and says to his wife "Good news, honey, I won't have to commute to work today. The world is ending."
The next collapse of the Chinese economy won't have nearly the impact of 9-11. The US economy lost between $6-8 trillion, depending on who's estimate you use.
The entire Chinese economy isn't worth this much.
Yeah, I can see China falling apart. The LAST people in the world who know how to run a capitalist, free-market economy are a bunch of elderly communists.
But business people tend to be gun-shy. They may have their eyes blinded by $$$ signs right now, but it won't take a whole lot to wipe those out and cause all those dollars to be withdrawn from China and put in the safest place in the known universe. The US economy.
Europe, as we know, has MANY problems and practically nothing for growth prospects. Japan has its own problems and history that will make investors stay away for a long time yet. Russia's a basket case. Greater Arabia ditto. India maybe I suppose, but not if its a world-wide phenom.
Where else is there to put money into? Only the US.
If China falls apart, every one of these investors is going to get burned and start repeating to themselves at LEAST once a minute, "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me." They'll come back to the US, ESPECIALLY if as some on this thread note, this becomes a world-wide problem.
"I think that a "world economic collapse" because of China is extremely unlikely. The underlying real economy in the US and Europe is strong and mature. Most likely, the financial turmoil would settle quickly, with Chinese dollar reserves being expended to buy their way out of trouble, bringing the dollar down and boosting US exports. If the US economy got into trouble at the same time, it would not be due to China but to the housing bubble collapsing."
Well put and agreed. The housing bubble coupled with outrageous energy could be the biggest recession of the last 50 years or even a depression. The ripple effects from our potential deep recession in the US would cause global recession. But China causing world financial collapse? I dont buy it either.
We've been through this a couple of times. We tried to expand into China back in the '70's, the Chinese ended up appropriating everything; buildings, equipment, etc.
Same deal again in the '90's.
It'll happen again. As people accumulate capital, the government will have no choice but to appropriate their assets and probably disappear them. US corporate assets will be appropriated to clean up the mess. It'll end up being another tax write-off and waste of time.
on the plus side oil would be $20 again
If the Chinese banks collapse, they will stop buying our debt. (treasuries)
If they stop buying our debt, interest rates will rise. (even more)
It interest rates rise, people will stop buying houses here.
If people stop buying houses, the housing bubble will pop.
If the housing bubble pops, people will stop buying Chinese goods.
It's all very "iffy". We'll probably see how the economic weather changes and what's to come shortly.
"Thanks. I have come to recognize a standard editorial formula for such stories: lay out a financial doomsday scenario and then get experts to comment on whether it "could" happen. There are always experts available who will play along, flattered by press attention or thinking publicity useful to their careers.
String together several apocalyptic comments and our prosperity can be made to seem fragile and endangered by adverse changes in most anything: Shanghai port loadings; reserve Saudi oil capacity; LIBOR schedules; Japanese patent filings; drought in the Sahara; and so on.
Uhhh, what about the American economy? What about domestic business conditions, the money supply, and the burdens of taxes, regulation, and politically driven misinvestment and financial bubbles? Dull, dull, dull. A foreign scare makes for better reading does it not?"
Very well put indeed. America is bar none the best financial market to invest in. Period. I don't see that changing in the next 20 years so any other fear-driven speculation is politically motivated.
If oil becomes as scarce and costly as many predict, it will be cheaper to make things closer to home than to ship them across oceans and continents.
If if if...
Oil is most likely due for a correction down from the $66+ range it's in today. I say that as an owner of Athabasca Tar Sands stock. ;^)
As oil pushes up, a geometrically growing range of substitutes presents itself, both for oil as fuel and oil as a source for 'chemicals'.
Note how with oil at $40+, the vast reserves of the Alberta tar sands become known exploitable resources - far more than the Saudis have. If $80+ became buildable into feasibility studies, even more substitutes for light crude become economic enterprises, including Wyoming's shale oil.
On the theme of the posted article, I'd say that one ought to concede that there is a Chinese Bubble, fueled by reckless and political lending practices. As to whether a Chinese Crash would crater World markets and the World economy, I'm sceptical. The Chinese stock market has already discounted a good deal of the sickness in the Commie economy.
OTOH, such a debacle could precipitate either a militarist 'auto-coup' in Red China, or an honest-to-God revolution.
They ran out of fuel a little while ago....tell me that wont slow down the sales of Buick Sails!
And so as I said:
As the price of fuel increases, it will be cheaper to make things closer to home than to ship them across oceans and continents.