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Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 09/21/2005 1:36:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico

Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; katrina; katrinassister; rita; tropical; twinhurricanes
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To: geopyg

see 1277


1,301 posted on 09/21/2005 11:21:11 AM PDT by WoodstockCat (General Honore: "The storm gets a vote... We're not stuck on stupid.")
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To: NautiNurse

And that's the west quadrant, which would not have the strongest winds...153 kt on the weaker side at Flight level...


1,302 posted on 09/21/2005 11:21:26 AM PDT by Knitting A Conundrum (Act Justly, Love Mercy, and Walk Humbly With God Micah 6:8)
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To: spanalot

Oil rigs in the path of Hurricane Rita (map: RigZone.com)

1,303 posted on 09/21/2005 11:23:01 AM PDT by OB1kNOb (Sometimes I just can't see the forest for all the gumps.)
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To: dogbyte12; Howlin; All
Way cool video of Rita's development.
1,304 posted on 09/21/2005 11:23:58 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: OB1kNOb

Tom Delay's district looks like it's going to get hammered. (bad accidental pun I realized after I typed it)


1,305 posted on 09/21/2005 11:24:07 AM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: kgrif_Salinas

Nope, they will "switch" to accusing Bush of using the situation for "political advantage"...

No matter what Bush does, it is "wrong" according to the Dems.


1,306 posted on 09/21/2005 11:24:21 AM PDT by jacquej
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To: NautiNurse

why did they say 150 MPH when its obviously 153 KNOTS?


1,307 posted on 09/21/2005 11:24:21 AM PDT by MikefromOhio (Hey Fox News, MORE MOLLY, LESS Greta van Talksoutthesideofhermouth)
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To: FD_Pilot; dirtboy

Thanks for the info...sounds very scary!


1,308 posted on 09/21/2005 11:24:59 AM PDT by sissyjane (Don't be stuck on stupid!)
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To: kgrif_Salinas
On a lighter note, I think Bush needs to do a lot better PR on this hurricane. Maybe he should go before the hurricane hits and do a news conference from a bunker to show he cares. Then the Dems can't accuse him of being indifferent.

On a much light headed harry reid note, I heard on Rush that harry reid is going to call for hearings of why the response in Texas is so much more organized than with Katrina in Louisiana.

1,309 posted on 09/21/2005 11:25:50 AM PDT by Dane ( anyone who believes hillary would do something to stop illegal immigration is believing gibberish)
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To: OB1kNOb

Thanks much - is the yellow gas and the grey oil?


1,310 posted on 09/21/2005 11:25:56 AM PDT by spanalot
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To: MikeinIraq

Maybe they don't believe what they are seeing. Crap, two storms like this in 3 weeks. This sucks. God, please put it in everybody's heart to evacuate. We don't need another 1,000 dead people here.


1,311 posted on 09/21/2005 11:26:11 AM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: My back yard

Just the first sip, the first taste, of the bitter cup that has been proferred to us by climate change, which THIS administration has ignored, by failing to sign Kyoto protocol. -- Algore


1,312 posted on 09/21/2005 11:26:38 AM PDT by johnb838 (Logic and reason are tools of the white oppressor.)
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To: hummingbird
What, please, is an ERC? TIA, numberonepal!

Eyewall Replacement Cycle. It's when the eye closes and opens again. Usually there is a burst of strength when the eye is opening back up coupled with a "flattening" of the wind filed. I see no indication of an ERC in this storm yet, and it may already be annular (no ERC).

1,313 posted on 09/21/2005 11:26:42 AM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: NautiNurse

Holy crap. This thing is redefining "explosive intensification." The winds are finally catching up to the bottom dropping out of the pressure.

152 knots = 175 mph at flight level, so yeah, 150 mph MINIMUM at ground level makes sense. She'll make Cat 5 by nightfall, and hold it for a little while before weakening closer into shore.

Katrina's younger sister, but not "little" sister.

}:-)4


1,314 posted on 09/21/2005 11:26:51 AM PDT by Moose4 (Richmond, Virginia, where our motto is "Will Riot For Cheap Laptops")
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To: OB1kNOb

http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp

Interactive map of oil rigs in path of Rita


1,315 posted on 09/21/2005 11:27:02 AM PDT by OB1kNOb (Sometimes I just can't see the forest for all the gumps.)
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To: sissyjane
sounds very scary!

It usually means that you are looking at a strong Cat 3 at the least and typically a Cat 4 or stronger.

1,316 posted on 09/21/2005 11:27:04 AM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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To: Dane
On a much light headed harry reid note, I heard on Rush that harry reid is going to call for hearings of why the response in Texas is so much more organized than with Katrina in Louisiana.

That would be a very wise thing to hold hearings on.

They would clearly show the competence of Republicans versus the incompetence of nincompoop Democrats.

1,317 posted on 09/21/2005 11:27:30 AM PDT by sinkspur (Just west of DFW Airport. We can take in four or five and two dogs.)
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To: kgrif_Salinas

George Bush Doesn't Care About The Texas Gulf Coast!


1,318 posted on 09/21/2005 11:27:52 AM PDT by johnb838 (Logic and reason are tools of the white oppressor.)
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To: dogbyte12

Texas will react much differently than Louisiana did.

I REALLY feel for the evacuees that are in Texas from New Orleans.

Twice in one year is too much (with a nod to any Floridians who weathered 4 of these damned things)


1,319 posted on 09/21/2005 11:28:02 AM PDT by MikefromOhio (Hey Fox News, MORE MOLLY, LESS Greta van Talksoutthesideofhermouth)
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To: Howlin
"Oh yes..oh yes......as soon as I saw your reply, I knew I was wrong......AGAin!"

No problem. Join the club...I just gave bad advice/info on Interstate 10 a few posts prior.

Nap time.

1,320 posted on 09/21/2005 11:28:23 AM PDT by blam (Mobile, Alabama)
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To: kgrif_Salinas
evaculate
1,321 posted on 09/21/2005 11:28:39 AM PDT by johnb838 (Logic and reason are tools of the white oppressor.)
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To: NautiNurse
Changes from the previous Vortex Data Message with an eye fix 49 minutes prior:

- Position 5 minutes north and 14 minutes west
- Pressure down 3 mb to 920 mb
- Max flight-level wind up 11 knots to 153 knots and in a different quad (previous was in the NE quad, this one is in the W quad)
- Eyewall 20 nm wide (stadium eyewall no longer noted)

1,322 posted on 09/21/2005 11:28:49 AM PDT by steveegg ($3.00 a gallon is the price you pay for ANWR! Start drilling or stop whining! - HT Falcon4.0)
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To: johnb838
Just the first sip, the first taste, of the bitter cup that has been proferred to us by climate change, which THIS administration has ignored, by failing to sign Kyoto protocol. -- Algore


The irony of that statement is Galveston had snow this past December. We were there and had a white Christmas!
1,323 posted on 09/21/2005 11:28:50 AM PDT by LA Woman3 (On election day, they were driven to the polls...On evacuation day, they had to fend for themselves)
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To: NautiNurse

CNN calling her a 5. 150 mph.


1,324 posted on 09/21/2005 11:28:56 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: NautiNurse; Gabz; Dog Gone

Do any of y'all happen to recall where the animated map of the storm surge lives?

I saw it on a thread yesterday and didn't bookmark it.


1,325 posted on 09/21/2005 11:29:06 AM PDT by Xenalyte (West Houston . . . sorta near where the Beltway and I-10 have that hideous intersection)
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To: All

A question, for anyone in Austin or who knows about what this storm may bring.

My sister is flying down from New Jersey tomorrow to attend the City Limits (?) Music Festival in Austin on Saturday. It's an outdoor festival. She has a hotel and isn't scheduled to fly back to New Jersey until Monday.

What could a hurricane do to Austin, which is 200 miles inland? Is it scheduled to pour rain on the city? That, at least, would shut the festival down and take away the only reason to go.

On the other hand, I could see the festival waiting until the last minute to cancel so ticketholders don't get pissed.

If it were me, I'd cancel, but it's her, and she's already spent the money. If being in Austin for Rita is the equivalent of being in, I don't know, Little Rock or Memphis for Katrina, is their cause for panic?


1,326 posted on 09/21/2005 11:29:47 AM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: NautiNurse

Dropping like a rock.


1,327 posted on 09/21/2005 11:29:56 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: MikeinIraq

The winds in the vortex reports are the winds at "flight level," whatever altitude the hurricane hunters are flying. It's either 5000 or 15000 feet, I forget which. Those winds are typically 10-20% or more higher than the ground-level winds. The NHC takes the flight level winds and applies a factor to back them down to estimated ground level winds. So the plane recorded 153 kt, which is 175 mph; the forecaster(s) at the NHC will probably estimate 150-155 mph on the ground based on that.

I don't know whether they can drop dropsondes or other such things to actually measure ground-level winds, or if they just measure the wind at their altitude and extrapolate it. But whichever, don't look at those vortex reports and automatically think those are the ground-level winds.

}:-)4


1,328 posted on 09/21/2005 11:30:09 AM PDT by Moose4 (Richmond, Virginia, where our motto is "Will Riot For Cheap Laptops")
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To: dirtboy

Katrina's eye resembled a 5 sided wall. Is that normal?


1,329 posted on 09/21/2005 11:30:09 AM PDT by queenkathy (Dear God, I have a problem; it's me.)
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To: MikeinIraq
why did they say 150 MPH when its obviously 153 KNOTS?

That's 153 knots at flight level. They're using a multiply of .85 to estimate what surface level winds are.
1,330 posted on 09/21/2005 11:30:21 AM PDT by montanus
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To: Ryan Spock

Tell them to buy a Texas road map at a gas station or grocery store. Should be able to get one in Columbus or La Grange. Best advice would be to leave Sheridan by going a couple miles west and then north on TX 155 to La Grange. Try to go all the way north to Waco before cutting over eastbound on Hwy 31, which is 4 lane from west of Corsicana to Tyler and near I-20. After that they'll have several options between Tyler and Shreveport to head north to I-30, several of them 4 lane. If US 77 from La Grange to Waco is too crowded with evacuees, there are numerous side highways that they could cut NE across the traffic starting from La Grange north. Could even go east to Brenham and Navasota before heading N. to Madisonville and Crockett, however the closer in to Houston, the more crowded portions of that route would be. I'd recommend not crossing I-45 south of Buffalo, they could weave up to Hearne and then take US79 to Palestine and north.

Best thing to do is for them to get a state highway map and then play it by ear. There are lots and lots of backroads and lesser highways.


1,331 posted on 09/21/2005 11:30:27 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Knitting A Conundrum
Some of the wx people think Avila is being too conservative with his winds, but that pressure is scary...

He'll catch up by the 4 pm CDT advisory.

1,332 posted on 09/21/2005 11:30:32 AM PDT by steveegg ($3.00 a gallon is the price you pay for ANWR! Start drilling or stop whining! - HT Falcon4.0)
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To: spanalot

Yellow - mobile rig locations
Gray - fixed manned platforms

According to Rigzone.


1,333 posted on 09/21/2005 11:30:32 AM PDT by OB1kNOb (Sometimes I just can't see the forest for all the gumps.)
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To: Howlin
I don't trust "first calls" from CNN
1,334 posted on 09/21/2005 11:30:46 AM PDT by WoodstockCat (General Honore: "The storm gets a vote... We're not stuck on stupid.")
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To: NautiNurse

Ooh, that's hypnotizing... like a mouse hypnotized by the snake.


1,335 posted on 09/21/2005 11:30:49 AM PDT by johnb838 (Logic and reason are tools of the white oppressor.)
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To: My back yard

Please see my recent post a little above this--what can you tell me about the prospects for Austin?


1,336 posted on 09/21/2005 11:30:56 AM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: montanus

that still comes out to 155 MPH....

besides they generally use .90 as the multiplier...


1,337 posted on 09/21/2005 11:31:34 AM PDT by MikefromOhio (Hey Fox News, MORE MOLLY, LESS Greta van Talksoutthesideofhermouth)
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To: Howlin
The scale really needs to be addressed one of these days. You can have a tight 4 storm that is "small", it can do a lot less damage than a big fat 3.

I hope that is one change that comes eventually. Perhaps you add together wind speed, size of storm, length of hurricane winds, length of tropical storm winds, pressure in a formulation. It sounds more complicated, but I think it would be more helpful.

1,338 posted on 09/21/2005 11:31:48 AM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: NautiNurse

Just recieved an email from my good friend in Houston...
He is evacuating he and his entire family to Bandera. (about 20 miles from me) Said his timeshare property there is now looking like a much better investment than he'd thought earlier. ;o)

Thanks for these threads NautiNurse...you are FReeper of the year!


1,339 posted on 09/21/2005 11:31:56 AM PDT by Liberty Valance (Kerrville....in the Texas Hill Country)
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To: sissyjane

http://flare.creighton.edu/martinelli/ats113/Calendarfiles/NOTRstadiumeffect.jpg


1,340 posted on 09/21/2005 11:32:02 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: Howlin
CNN calling her a 5. 150 mph.

Did CNN every figure out where Switzerland is located?

1,341 posted on 09/21/2005 11:32:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: Xenalyte

Is this the surge map you're searching for?

http://www.kfdm.com/hurricane_surgemap.shtml


1,342 posted on 09/21/2005 11:32:39 AM PDT by OB1kNOb (Sometimes I just can't see the forest for all the gumps.)
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To: NautiNurse; Howlin
Check out this infrared image:

mash this

Notice the line of clouds extending out before the storm? Katrina had the same thing - and it pointed in the direction she ended up going.

In this case, it's pointing to the NE side of Matagorda Bay, or Palacios.

1,343 posted on 09/21/2005 11:33:32 AM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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To: Liberty Valance

Glad to hear your Houston friend will be nearby during the storm. I have a feeling you will be getting together in the next day or two...


1,344 posted on 09/21/2005 11:33:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: sinkspur

Hearings would be a good thing... if they weren't "gotcha" and instead were a study in how things are done in Texas, lessons learned, and how to apply them elsewhere. Unfortunately, if they're done in Congress, we already know that won't be the case.


1,345 posted on 09/21/2005 11:33:52 AM PDT by johnb838 (Logic and reason are tools of the white oppressor.)
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To: Howlin

Holy Cow!! Awesome picture.


1,346 posted on 09/21/2005 11:34:23 AM PDT by sissyjane (Don't be stuck on stupid!)
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NWS local weather hurricane statement Houston area. (also tells of high tides thurs eve and fri eve )

NWS Houston statement

Ps: Always hit reload to make sure its most recent)

1,347 posted on 09/21/2005 11:34:31 AM PDT by No Blue States (Fort Worth)
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To: kgrif_Salinas
Then the Dems can't accuse him of being indifferent.

They'll just say he only did it because it's his (and Rove's) home state.

1,348 posted on 09/21/2005 11:34:50 AM PDT by dfwgator (Flower Mound, TX)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for digging up that video.


1,349 posted on 09/21/2005 11:34:59 AM PDT by steveegg ($3.00 a gallon is the price you pay for ANWR! Start drilling or stop whining! - HT Falcon4.0)
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To: Dane
I heard on Rush that harry reid is going to call for hearings of why the response in Texas is so much more organized than with Katrina in Louisiana

"Stuck on stupid." I love Gen Honore. It would not surprise me to see him pull his pistol and threaten to shoot the next meathead who stays stuck.

1,350 posted on 09/21/2005 11:35:29 AM PDT by don-o (Don't be a Freeploader. Do the right thing and become a Monthly Donor!)
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