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Skip to comments.Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II
Posted on 09/21/2005 1:36:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.
Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.
Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KTRK ABC News Houston
|Category||Wind Speed||Barometric Pressure||Storm Surge||Damage Potential|
|< 39 mph
< 34 kts
|39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
|74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
|28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
|4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
|Minimal damage to vegetation|
|96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
|28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
|6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
|Moderate damage to houses|
|111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
|27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
|9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
|Extensive damage to small buildings|
|131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
|27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
|13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
|Extreme structural damage|
|Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
|Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
|Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
|Catastrophic building failures possible|
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
And that's the west quadrant, which would not have the strongest winds...153 kt on the weaker side at Flight level...
Oil rigs in the path of Hurricane Rita (map: RigZone.com)
Tom Delay's district looks like it's going to get hammered. (bad accidental pun I realized after I typed it)
Nope, they will "switch" to accusing Bush of using the situation for "political advantage"...
No matter what Bush does, it is "wrong" according to the Dems.
why did they say 150 MPH when its obviously 153 KNOTS?
Thanks for the info...sounds very scary!
On a much light headed harry reid note, I heard on Rush that harry reid is going to call for hearings of why the response in Texas is so much more organized than with Katrina in Louisiana.
Thanks much - is the yellow gas and the grey oil?
Maybe they don't believe what they are seeing. Crap, two storms like this in 3 weeks. This sucks. God, please put it in everybody's heart to evacuate. We don't need another 1,000 dead people here.
Just the first sip, the first taste, of the bitter cup that has been proferred to us by climate change, which THIS administration has ignored, by failing to sign Kyoto protocol. -- Algore
Eyewall Replacement Cycle. It's when the eye closes and opens again. Usually there is a burst of strength when the eye is opening back up coupled with a "flattening" of the wind filed. I see no indication of an ERC in this storm yet, and it may already be annular (no ERC).
Holy crap. This thing is redefining "explosive intensification." The winds are finally catching up to the bottom dropping out of the pressure.
152 knots = 175 mph at flight level, so yeah, 150 mph MINIMUM at ground level makes sense. She'll make Cat 5 by nightfall, and hold it for a little while before weakening closer into shore.
Katrina's younger sister, but not "little" sister.
Interactive map of oil rigs in path of Rita
It usually means that you are looking at a strong Cat 3 at the least and typically a Cat 4 or stronger.
That would be a very wise thing to hold hearings on.
They would clearly show the competence of Republicans versus the incompetence of nincompoop Democrats.
George Bush Doesn't Care About The Texas Gulf Coast!
Texas will react much differently than Louisiana did.
I REALLY feel for the evacuees that are in Texas from New Orleans.
Twice in one year is too much (with a nod to any Floridians who weathered 4 of these damned things)
No problem. Join the club...I just gave bad advice/info on Interstate 10 a few posts prior.
- Position 5 minutes north and 14 minutes west
- Pressure down 3 mb to 920 mb
- Max flight-level wind up 11 knots to 153 knots and in a different quad (previous was in the NE quad, this one is in the W quad)
- Eyewall 20 nm wide (stadium eyewall no longer noted)
CNN calling her a 5. 150 mph.
Do any of y'all happen to recall where the animated map of the storm surge lives?
I saw it on a thread yesterday and didn't bookmark it.
A question, for anyone in Austin or who knows about what this storm may bring.
My sister is flying down from New Jersey tomorrow to attend the City Limits (?) Music Festival in Austin on Saturday. It's an outdoor festival. She has a hotel and isn't scheduled to fly back to New Jersey until Monday.
What could a hurricane do to Austin, which is 200 miles inland? Is it scheduled to pour rain on the city? That, at least, would shut the festival down and take away the only reason to go.
On the other hand, I could see the festival waiting until the last minute to cancel so ticketholders don't get pissed.
If it were me, I'd cancel, but it's her, and she's already spent the money. If being in Austin for Rita is the equivalent of being in, I don't know, Little Rock or Memphis for Katrina, is their cause for panic?
Dropping like a rock.
The winds in the vortex reports are the winds at "flight level," whatever altitude the hurricane hunters are flying. It's either 5000 or 15000 feet, I forget which. Those winds are typically 10-20% or more higher than the ground-level winds. The NHC takes the flight level winds and applies a factor to back them down to estimated ground level winds. So the plane recorded 153 kt, which is 175 mph; the forecaster(s) at the NHC will probably estimate 150-155 mph on the ground based on that.
I don't know whether they can drop dropsondes or other such things to actually measure ground-level winds, or if they just measure the wind at their altitude and extrapolate it. But whichever, don't look at those vortex reports and automatically think those are the ground-level winds.
Katrina's eye resembled a 5 sided wall. Is that normal?
Tell them to buy a Texas road map at a gas station or grocery store. Should be able to get one in Columbus or La Grange. Best advice would be to leave Sheridan by going a couple miles west and then north on TX 155 to La Grange. Try to go all the way north to Waco before cutting over eastbound on Hwy 31, which is 4 lane from west of Corsicana to Tyler and near I-20. After that they'll have several options between Tyler and Shreveport to head north to I-30, several of them 4 lane. If US 77 from La Grange to Waco is too crowded with evacuees, there are numerous side highways that they could cut NE across the traffic starting from La Grange north. Could even go east to Brenham and Navasota before heading N. to Madisonville and Crockett, however the closer in to Houston, the more crowded portions of that route would be. I'd recommend not crossing I-45 south of Buffalo, they could weave up to Hearne and then take US79 to Palestine and north.
Best thing to do is for them to get a state highway map and then play it by ear. There are lots and lots of backroads and lesser highways.
He'll catch up by the 4 pm CDT advisory.
Yellow - mobile rig locations
Gray - fixed manned platforms
According to Rigzone.
Ooh, that's hypnotizing... like a mouse hypnotized by the snake.
Please see my recent post a little above this--what can you tell me about the prospects for Austin?
that still comes out to 155 MPH....
besides they generally use .90 as the multiplier...
I hope that is one change that comes eventually. Perhaps you add together wind speed, size of storm, length of hurricane winds, length of tropical storm winds, pressure in a formulation. It sounds more complicated, but I think it would be more helpful.
Just recieved an email from my good friend in Houston...
He is evacuating he and his entire family to Bandera. (about 20 miles from me) Said his timeshare property there is now looking like a much better investment than he'd thought earlier. ;o)
Thanks for these threads NautiNurse...you are FReeper of the year!
Did CNN every figure out where Switzerland is located?
Is this the surge map you're searching for?
Notice the line of clouds extending out before the storm? Katrina had the same thing - and it pointed in the direction she ended up going.
In this case, it's pointing to the NE side of Matagorda Bay, or Palacios.
Glad to hear your Houston friend will be nearby during the storm. I have a feeling you will be getting together in the next day or two...
Hearings would be a good thing... if they weren't "gotcha" and instead were a study in how things are done in Texas, lessons learned, and how to apply them elsewhere. Unfortunately, if they're done in Congress, we already know that won't be the case.
Holy Cow!! Awesome picture.
Ps: Always hit reload to make sure its most recent)
They'll just say he only did it because it's his (and Rove's) home state.
Thanks for digging up that video.
"Stuck on stupid." I love Gen Honore. It would not surprise me to see him pull his pistol and threaten to shoot the next meathead who stays stuck.