Please cite sources for information.
OH MY GOD....that's near a CAT 5...the SAT is AMAZING. one of the strongest i have ever seen....NHC is just guessing, recon plane is broke down , i see the just jump it up to CAT 4 and it looks stornger now then it did an hour ago when they did it
Hidy, folks. Quick in and out, lots going on here.
Still a day or two from finishing the levee assessment for Katrina. Patience, it's a big job.
Found some decent links to help get up to speed on hurricane theory and historical performance in and around the Houston area.
Here's a report on computer flood modeling for Galveston and Gas City, areas of notable concern given the current course tracks and eyewall radius:
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BPHYX/$File/chapter5.pdf
The first half is in reference to global warming, just scroll down to the hurricane surge section for the useful info.
Here's an overview of past hurricanes and how they affected various areas:
http://www.h-gac.com/NR/rdonlyres/evyjm5vyexn3f6v3jdam2mdkmxrjk4gzunftekkv5r2p7gyqlo3ssai5e674anordggfhhm3kgk6jtai6j3d6pgkhtf/Section+4.2+Hazard+Analysis.pdf
If someone could note a couple of the more significant storms and post some links to more detailed data on what effects they had, especially surge and runoff flooding, I'd appreciate it. I know others are busy too, so if there aren't any pings back on this by tonight, I'll dig some up myself. I'm good on the Galveston storm, but it's a good example for this one as long as the track stays steady.
Still too early to call a landfall location, but as the storm gets closer to shore, I'll pull down some 10 meter per pixel elevation models and do some surge forecasting, but don't expect to see that until Thursday or Friday.
A from a quick and dirty 30 meterper pixel surge simulation I ran, a very rough rule of thumb is that the 20 foot line tends to be around 10 miles inland from CC to Houston. Do NOT use this figure for any more than a rough idea of what to expect, local conditions and terrain and actual landfall location will be the final determinant.
That's all for now, I'll be lurking until about 24 hours before landfall, popping in only occasionally till then.
For you hardcore, and you know who you are, plan your weekend for some long stints online, and be ready to settle in for the long haul too. Houston isn't New Orleans, but this storm has the potential to rival the mighty Katrina herself, in windspeed and surge. For some odd reason, possibly random chance, historically, Texas hurricanes seem to stall frequently just onshore, so be looking at total rainfall potentials too.
Hasta for now...
get the school buses out of the parking lot.
The Gulf Coast is going to be gone if this season doesn't hurry up and get over with!!!
God Bless Texas!
I woke up this morning to see this news. Cat 4. Just damn.
Please God, no. My employers is one of the contractors that is helping clean up LA, MS and AL. We are all working insane hours ... so yeah, its a selfish reason, but I wanted a break from the cleanup insanity.
And of course, I also don't want to see anymore devastation and heartbreak. This is too much.
I've been picturing what I'd be doing if I had to clean up the place and I'd consider hooking up fire hoses to hydrants and just washing everything down to the pumps. A good rain might do the same thing. Or at least get a good start on the parts that are now above water.
I am worried about the recovery time if another cat 5 hits.I am a long way from Texas, but would help a freeper family and sure many others fell the same way. I live alone in a four bedroom house in the Adirondacks with excellent school nearby. Remember us after if you need a place for your family while they recover.
Fill up your gas tanks before thursday.
Hello Texans! My Mom and Dad live near Conroe. What are the officials telling the residents near there? Anyone leaving??? thx...
Interesting article from February, 2005:
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/topstory/3046590
Is Houston ready for the big storm?
Evacuees' delays may bring deadly consequences
By JOE STINEBAKER
Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle
Bill King has a vision he can't shake.
He sees long lines of vehicles -- family cars with young children in the back, pickups pulling expensive boats, and buses filled with the sick and the old -- trapped in a major traffic jam on Texas 146 or the Gulf Freeway. Behind them, a massive hurricane churns ashore.
Ahead lie washed-out bridges, flooded roads and thousands of sets of taillights. Their escape has been cut off, and time is running out.
King, Kemah's mayor, is one of many area critics who believe that lackluster evacuation planning and unrealistic expectations by state and local emergency officials could doom thousands of coastal Texans to horrific deaths when a Category 4 or 5 hurricane strikes.
"We have got to have this right, because sooner or later there's going to be a bullet in the chamber," King said. "Sooner or later, we're going to get an event. And if we do not have it right, and if we haven't been out there and practiced (an evacuation) and everybody knows exactly where they're supposed to go and what they're supposed to do, then we're going to kill a bunch of people."
An upcoming report from Gov. Rick Perry's Office of Emergency Management is expected to reject most of King's doubts. The report, according to area and state emergency officials, likely will say that the Houston-Galveston area is largely prepared for a major hurricane, although a few improvements are needed. The report is a result of nearly four months of meetings and reviews of preparedness plans for Texas coastal areas from Mexico to Louisiana.
Perry's homeland security director, Steve McCraw, headed the review. Although McCraw will not reveal his findings before turning them over to Perry, he said he was "impressed" by local evacuation plans and that he believed those plans were "more coordinated than what's been represented" by critics.
But those looking for definitive answers to whether Texas is ready for a major hurricane are likely to be disappointed. Interviews with more than two dozen hurricane and emergency evacuation experts show that no one really knows whether the Southeast Texas coast could be quickly and safely evacuated in the event of a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane. Key concerns lie in how much time is needed to evacuate, whether Texans would respond quickly enough to recommendations to flee and whether the roads leading to and through Houston could handle the surge in traffic.
In other words, we'll find out when it happens.
In only one area are the experts in agreement, and it's a disconcerting admission. State and local officials have little confidence in their ability to evacuate those without cars, living in group homes or many of the sick and elderly living alone. Plans are in the works, they say, but for now those who are most vulnerable are living on the edge of disaster.
Order of evacuation
The first to be evacuated would be residents of western Galveston and southern Harris counties, who would have to begin evacuating at least 33 hours before the storm's outer bands (containing winds of about 40 mph) are expected to come ashore. Next would be residents of eastern Chambers, eastern Galveston and eastern Harris counties (19-20 hours in advance), followed by Brazoria County (15 hours), central Harris County (10 hours), west Chambers County (eight hours) and Liberty County (seven hours).
But persuading residents that they need to leave that far in advance, when skies may still be sunny and clear, could be difficult.
Michael K. Lindell and Carla S. Prater, a husband-and-wife team at Texas A&M University's Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center, designed the study of evacuation times and routes on which many officials rely. They say the evacuation times must be strictly enforced and that delays could be fatal.
"The problem is partly the misconception people have about how long it's going to take because they're relying on their personal experience," Lindell said.
People tend to think in terms of a four- or five-hour drive to San Antonio or Dallas, he said, but they need to multiply that by 10 or 20 times because of the crowds.
Complacency is another problem.
Michael Bass, a city councilman from Clear Lake Shores, told state officials at a hurricane workshop last month that, because it has been more than 43 years since a major hurricane struck the area, many residents are ignorant of the dangers and will wait until the last minute to leave.
"You basically stay because you don't know what the hell you're getting into," he said.
Eliot Jennings, the emergency management coordinator for the city of Galveston, said cooperation is the key.
"We can do everything we can, but -- bottom line -- it's the individual out there who has to take the action," he said.
Mike Peacock, a hurricane preparedness officer with the governor's Division of Emergency Management, said the consequences of Texans' complacency would be fatal.
"If they're going to wait 12 or 24 hours to leave," he said, "people are going to die."
Under state law, officials can recommend evacuations, but cannot order them. Dozens of local officials want the Legislature to give them the authority to issue mandatory evacuations.
"I can't make any business in Galveston shut down and let their employees go," he said. "Under the voluntary evacuation, a person with a family could be faced with an employer who doesn't agree. And if they leave, it could end up costing them their job. With a mandatory evacuation, it could give us a little more leverage to force businesses to shut down. If someone doesn't have a job to go to, there may not be as much inclination to stay."
But King said Perry told him he doesn't want to enforce mandatory evacuations, and McCraw said he is unlikely to make such a recommendation to the governor.
Enough road capacity?
Local officials also are divided on whether the area's evacuation routes are adequate to handle a full-fledged evacuation of Southeast Texas.
Studies by the Army Corps of Engineers and at Texas A&M University have said the area has enough road capacity to ensure that all endangered residents could be evacuated to safety north of Interstate 10 if they start early enough.
And Harris County Judge Robert Eckels, who is responsible for calling for evacuations in the county, said he believes the evacuation routes could hold the traffic as long as the evacuation begins early enough.
"The key element to that question is `in time,' " Eckels said. "Assuming we have as much notice as they had on the Florida hurricanes ... we could substantially do it. The challenge is coordinating all three counties (Harris, Galveston and Brazoria). It's going to be a massive traffic jam, lots of folks, but I think it can be done."
The state's hurricane planners agree.
Peacock told a group of several hundred emergency officials from the region last month that "the infrastructure will support the evacuation times."
But a large number of those officials from Brazoria, Galveston and Harris counties gathered at the hurricane evacuation workshop said they didn't share that confidence.
They fear evacuation planners have underestimated the difficulty of moving as many as 360,000 vehicles through the congested and flood-prone Houston area in a Category 5 evacuation.
Some routes called risky
Some of the prime escape routes are not entirely reliable, local officials say. Jennings said Texas 146, a key evacuation route running along the western edge of Galveston Bay, has two northbound lanes, but narrows to only one in crossing two bridges south of Dickinson. In addition, the road's elevation is low -- an especially dangerous situation given that a hurricane's storm surge could send Galveston Bay spilling over to land on the west.
Lindell said Texas 146 and other routes through the area may no longer be entirely reliable.
"In the Galveston area, there's an enormous amount of development on the lee side of the bay," he said. "So ... the wind's going to be coming off Galveston Bay ... and the major evacuation routes run through that side."
Lindell and Prater also noted a problem in their March 2002 report with Brazoria County -- including the convergence of Texas 288 and Business 288 and the intersection of FM 521 just beyond.
For those like King who are skeptical that various evacuation plans can truly be coordinated, there may be some comfort in practice drills. Although no such drills have been held in the area, momentum for them is building fast.
Eckels and Galveston County Judge James Yarbrough have said they are willing to hold a joint exercise. And Jack Colley, the state coordinator for the governor's division of emergency management, said last month that the state would financially support and take part in such a program.
That's a first step in reassuring some critics.
"We are overdue for a bad hurricane. We've been dodging bullets here for a long time," King said. "If we get one, it's going to be bad. And I think we have just got to get out there and make sure we have a real active plan where agencies know what they're supposed to do. And I think every July, we need to get everybody out and exercise that plan."
This is my last post for a while as we have elected to evacuate to seguin. If we have a computer when we arrive I will update everyone on the status of our freat escape.
Everyone in Houston and Galveston. Get out as fast as you can, this is a big one.
I have a "fast horse" but I do need your prayers..
Over and out....
TexanToTheCore
Anyway, what they are concerned about is congestion on the roads heading out of the Houston and Texas Gulf Coast area -- so what I would very much appreciate here is suggested routes from their area toward the northeast. Would it be reasonable to go out the way they normally would to come here, i.e. I-10 East to Houston, then 59 North out, or should they perhaps head due north on 77, and start heading eastward in the Waco or Dallas areas?
Thanks in advance for helpful suggestions, sources of information, links, etc.
anyone have a plot of the oil and gas rigs in the Gulf?
It looks like this is going to blow well south of the rigs and the market worries should be corrected soon.
Do any of y'all happen to recall where the animated map of the storm surge lives?
I saw it on a thread yesterday and didn't bookmark it.
UPDATE 1:24 PM CDT: The National Hurricane Center is reporting a central pressure of 920 mb with sustained winds of over 150 mph. Look for Rita to become a Category 5 storm within the next few hours.
LATEST RECON INDICATES RITA IS A CAT 5 HURRICANE
http://www.freerepublic.com/^http://home.accuweather.com/index.asp?partner=accuweather