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Neo-Conservatism and the real reason we are in Iraq (ZOT!!! “The Treasure of the Bravo Sierra”)
Editorial from Steve Hickel (pre-Iraq) ^ | 29 September 2000 | Steve Hickel

Posted on 09/26/2005 3:45:47 PM PDT by chaos theory

Can Iraq's Policy Affect the US$ and Euro? Iraq decided to no longer accept dollars for oil... what do you think will be the effect on the greenback and on the Euro?"

The burning question in cyber-space today is "Will this policy be limited to just Iraq?"

In my opinion, we will see the dollar having to bid for Euro's instead of oil directly. That will reverse the current Euro-Dollar relationship. It will create a high demand for Euro's causing a higher Euro valuation; the dollar will significantly devalue against the Euro by 30% or more. Also, since the Euro is market-aligned with gold, which represents 15% of its current value, the price of gold will also rise in dollars and Euro's, but much more so in dollars -- probably above $600+ per ounce or more. As gold changes in value, so too will the Euro. Gold will become a proportionately higher (or lower, since gold is marked to market value against the Euro quarterly) percentage of backing for the Euro as gold rises (or lowers).

The current Goldgate derivatives fiasco in paper gold contracts (see www.gata.org) has the potential to blow the roof off of the gold price. Were that to happen, the Euro, because of its market tie-in with gold prices and low external debt, would find itself strongly backed by gold and when marked to the market price of gold would strongly devalue the dollar to a potentially devastating 50% or less of its current value. Combining these two factors, you have a replacement world reserve currency in the making.

It is possible that other oil countries could follow Iraq's lead by allowing payment in Dollars or Euro's for oil. This dual payment system would, of course, be too attractive for European countries to pass up and would therefore open the door to significant dollar holdings being converted to Euro's. Eventually, this would lead to the Euro as becoming the preferred choice in oil payment currency because the currency value is earmarked to gold's market value and would represent a less inflationary and stronger long-term value to the oil interests.

All the pieces would seem to be in place for this seemingly minor payment acceptance decision, yet the impact on the Euro, gold, oil, and dollar prices would rock the world. It would cause a rush to the exits away from the dollar to the Euro. No wonder, then, the Bank of England, the ESF, and bullion banks want to keep a lid on the price of gold (see GATA link above). For a significant rise in the price of gold or oil in dollar terms would only tend to exacerbate this significant shift in currencies -- it would become just too good (for oil interests) to pass up.

This would also reverse the trade deficit for the US, as a devalued currency would make US-made products much more attractive in world Euro-based markets. Its effects in the US would be to cause a rush to Euro-based investments and obviously cause the US stock market bubble to create a whooshing sound as dollars are moved into Euro-based stock markets and precious metals too. Just look currently at how the recent Intel and Kodak profit announcements have effected the higher Price/Earning ratios of these two companies -- a one-hour 30% downward adjustment. The US equity markets are just too high in their average P/E's and we would see a quick erosion of the average PE to a more traditional and conservative level but not before an overswing occurred in the opposite direction. It is easy to see why the US has held a strong-dollar policy and would appear to be pulling the stops out in order to protect that policy.

It is gold's hidden agenda as a currency that has caused the gold investors plight of late. [It is true -- all currencies are based on the price of gold, especially the dollar (and now the Euro). This is not a G7 official position but one would have to lack intelligence to not see the relationship gold holds with all world currencies. It is the only commodity held in quantity by world central banks -- 32,000 tons to be more precise. This reservoir of gold is much like a holding tank or overflow tank in a closed liquid system with big leaks. The banks can use their stash to stabilize the system until the loss of gold is too rapid and the system needs more gold because the reservoir can't (or won't) keep up -- such is the case today]. The dollar-based countries (either by backing or by trade) have had to protect the dollar by holding back the price of gold, especially since the Euro is market bound to gold. Any strong rise in the price of gold would make the Euro a very strong and desirable currency. It seems that this chess match is much too far along and the dollar is now trapped in playing it until the end, but has lost far too many pieces and is now in a defensive game with apparently no way out.

When looked at in this perspective, one cannot blame the dollar camp for its strong dollar policy and all the alleged manipulations and shenanigans in the gold market -- the soft landing of the stock market seems to be but a small piece of a larger looming landslide of derived-dollar problems as they pertain to gold and to a strong competitive currency: the Euro. A strong dollar and a gold price above $290 cannot exist in the same Universe, much like the famed question and answer in the "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" series by Douglas Adams. As in the series, should the question and answer or in this case, strong gold and strong dollar, find themselves in the same Universe, this would cause major havoc. It is an impossible formula and no matter how much a goldbug or Euro-watcher would want it, one or the other must give first. For now, gold is loosing the battle. Yet, the mere existence of a Euro currency backed by 11-strong nations, creates a major conduit for funds that seems quite compelling for oil sellers and purchasers. A dual oil payment system is such an easy policy change to make, but one with major ramifications. When looked at in this perspective, one must admire (but not necessarily like) the beauty of moves that has brought us to here. Like it or not, it sure does explain a whole lot, eh?

Steve Hickel

29 September 2000


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: bravosierra; byebye; goldbugs; gotzot; isitzotable; itwuzdejooooz; neoconsundermybed; scaryneocons; tinfoilhat; tinfoilmerchants; troll; zot; zotbait; zotmeagain; zotmebaby; zotmedaily; zotmefrombehind; zotmehard; zotmeharder; zotmeintonextweek; zotmetillipuke; zotolicious; zotsfortots
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Very interesting, unbiased view from the year 2000. Almost prophetic.

Since Saddam was in power he never had the chance to build an oil enterprise like Saudi Arabia.

His oil embargo would have been lifted in 2003 when the Euro dollar was already worth more than the USD.

We had to take Saddam out of power to save our economy and secondly the Saudi Royal Family.

What we all must realize though, is why others in the world would disagree with this theory and would want to fight our interests to the end.

This is Neo-Conservatism.

Economic Assassins.

1 posted on 09/26/2005 3:45:47 PM PDT by chaos theory
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To: chaos theory

**Sniff**


2 posted on 09/26/2005 3:48:14 PM PDT by OSHA (I've got a hole in my head too, but that's beside the point.)
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To: chaos theory

This theory fails when it is noted that the Saudi Royal family was and is against our liberation of Iraq.


3 posted on 09/26/2005 3:52:23 PM PDT by bnelson44 (Proud parent of a tanker!)
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To: chaos theory

Iraq not accepting dollars was a reaction, not a strategy.

Take the neo-con boogeymen crap back to DU.


4 posted on 09/26/2005 3:55:23 PM PDT by Terpfen (http://www.pattonhq.com/unknowntext.html)
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To: bnelson44

He was wrong in all his predictions. Gold is not at $600+, there isn't a stock-market bubble, the strong-dollar policy has been abandoned, and the US trade-deficit is bigger than ever.


5 posted on 09/26/2005 3:55:29 PM PDT by Skylab
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To: bnelson44

Neo Conservatives are actually Human Rights Advocates of the Democratic Party except unlike Democrats they believe in the use of miitary force to change the world. The problem with this approach is we needed a large military to carry out such a world policy. That is my only critique of the GWB foreign policy, you cannot fight a 2.5 war strategy with a 1.5 war military.


6 posted on 09/26/2005 3:56:46 PM PDT by Fee (Great powers never let minor allies dictate who, where and when they must fight.)
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To: chaos theory

Umm, shouldn't this kind of tin-foil stuff (read: ungrounded in reality) be more the purview of DU ?


7 posted on 09/26/2005 3:57:08 PM PDT by farlander
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To: chaos theory
What the heck are you talking about? And where is the tinfoil alert?
8 posted on 09/26/2005 3:57:33 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: chaos theory
Another theory in a long line of believe it or not theories. Speaking of theories wasn't Algore's favorite theory besides global warming, old Machiavelli's "chaos theory?"
9 posted on 09/26/2005 3:58:05 PM PDT by DaBroasta (Voting democrat is being "stuck on stupid")
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To: bnelson44
Maybe the Saudis would have been fine, but not under the US dollar. If Saddam was in power, his country would be under control and spewing out more oil than any other country. Saddam would have most definitely pandered to the Euros and the Saudis would have to follow. In 2003 the Euro dollar was already worth 25% more tah the USD. When we invaded Iraq foreign investment went up substantially into the U.S.A. It made a huge difference.
10 posted on 09/26/2005 3:59:50 PM PDT by chaos theory (E=MC2 when apes evolve to people)
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To: chaos theory

Empty talk. The Euro is much sicker than the dollar.


11 posted on 09/26/2005 4:01:01 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: chaos theory

I smell ozone.


12 posted on 09/26/2005 4:01:18 PM PDT by Artemis Webb
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To: chaos theory

In before the ZOT?

13 posted on 09/26/2005 4:01:20 PM PDT by rocksblues (I support the war on terror)
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To: chaos theory

You, nor the author, understand what the hell you're talking about.


14 posted on 09/26/2005 4:01:55 PM PDT by spyone
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To: chaos theory

15 posted on 09/26/2005 4:02:08 PM PDT by SIDENET (Nothing produces the quite same reaction as the sighting of a large, flying cockroach.)
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To: chaos theory
You are an idiot.

If Saddam was in power, his country would be under control and spewing out more oil than any other country.

Well who was in power for the last 30 years? What was stopping him from spewing out more oil than any other country?

Iraq's economy was devastated and there was no investment in oil exploration and extraction. The only people who can do this are the oil companies and they were barred from going in. The security council would never have lifted the sanctions on Iraq with Saddam in power.

You are an idiot.

16 posted on 09/26/2005 4:03:56 PM PDT by Skylab
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To: Skylab

No, your the idiot if your jumping to such conclusions so quickly.

Iraq sanctions were due to expire in 2003. Are you saying that is inaccurate?

By the way, no kidding it was Saddam's fault he wasn't a big contender.

First he was a tyrant in the 70's.

Second he was in an american supported war with Iran.

Then third he was under UN sanction that were set to expire in 2003.

Because guess what, the UN WMD inspection was inconclusive!


17 posted on 09/26/2005 4:10:50 PM PDT by chaos theory (E=MC2 when apes evolve to people)
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To: Skylab

No, your the idiot if your jumping to such conclusions so quickly.

Iraq sanctions were due to expire in 2003. Are you saying that is inaccurate?

By the way, no kidding it was Saddam's fault he wasn't a big contender.

First he was a tyrant in the 70's.

Second he was in an american supported war with Iran.

Then third he was under UN sanction that were set to expire in 2003.

Because guess what, the UN WMD inspection was inconclusive!


18 posted on 09/26/2005 4:11:44 PM PDT by chaos theory (E=MC2 when apes evolve to people)
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To: Skylab
He was wrong in all his predictions. Gold is not at $600+, there isn't a stock-market bubble ...

True, gold is not soaring that high, but it has increased this year, and is rising sharply. Of course, this is partly due to the commodities cycle - it has been down a long time - must move up. My own belief is that gold will rise, and might be $500 by the end of the year.

19 posted on 09/26/2005 4:13:26 PM PDT by BlackVeil
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To: BlackVeil

Yes but it has taken 5 years to reach $460 and it fell today and what about the trade-deficit shrinking as the dollar falls? Complete BS.


20 posted on 09/26/2005 4:15:08 PM PDT by Skylab
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To: Skylab
Then third he was under UN sanction that were set to expire in 2003.

Because guess what, the UN WMD inspection was inconclusive!

So sad. American and British bombing of his "air-defence" sites were never going to expire.

21 posted on 09/26/2005 4:19:41 PM PDT by Skylab
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To: Skylab

Gold Eagle and a lot of these gold sites push a lot of bullshit in order to sell their product.


22 posted on 09/26/2005 4:26:16 PM PDT by satchmodog9 (Murder and weather are our only news)
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To: chaos theory

We've rather purposely devalued the dollar.


23 posted on 09/26/2005 4:31:50 PM PDT by marron
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To: chaos theory; darkwing104

"I say that you are a troll! And I am unanimous in this!"
24 posted on 09/26/2005 4:36:17 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: chaos theory
We had to take Saddam out of power to save our econom and secondly the Saudi Royal Family.

What we all must realize though, is why others in the world would disagree with this theory and would want to fight our interests to the end.

This is Neo-Conservatism.

This is the most nonsensical "logic" I've heard in a long time.

So, it took all of our chiefs of staff, the State Dept., first to subscribe to this "theory" and then to engage in conspiracy involving thousands of people to implement this plan.

You probably believe in the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" too.

25 posted on 09/26/2005 4:50:34 PM PDT by ExitPurgamentum
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To: chaos theory
You know the Lyndon LaRouche folks say things very much like this when not babbling inanely about the Queen of England selling drugs. Seeing how you're a Fruit Loop too, perhaps you should hang out with 'em in their cereal bowl.
26 posted on 09/26/2005 4:59:53 PM PDT by Buzwardo
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To: Terpfen

There's something to be said for this line of thinking. Almost every major U.S. military engagement in the last 50 years involved a foreign nation that was attempting to nationalize one or more of its key industries -- if not its entire economy.


27 posted on 09/26/2005 5:19:29 PM PDT by Alberta's Child (I ain't got a dime, but what I got is mine. I ain't rich, but Lord I'm free.)
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To: chaos theory; timpad; TBarnett34; MeekOneGOP; Old Sarge; PetroniDE; Lady Jag; mhking; ...
Make sure you wear your tin-foil hat nice and tight...

Please let me know if you want ON or OFF my Viking Kitty/ZOT ping list!. . .don't be shy.

28 posted on 09/26/2005 5:35:26 PM PDT by darkwing104 (Let's get dangerous)
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To: chaos theory

Umm, no.
But we will have fun laughing at you and any post mortem write ups that happen.


29 posted on 09/26/2005 5:40:18 PM PDT by Darksheare (There is a Possum in the works.)
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To: chaos theory

I smell ozone...


30 posted on 09/26/2005 5:46:16 PM PDT by PilloryHillary
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To: chaos theory
400 KB Salute

31 posted on 09/26/2005 6:01:02 PM PDT by DocRock (Osama said, "We love death, the U.S. loves life, that is the main difference between us.")
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To: Alberta's Child

Why, yes, we did wage the Cold War against communism.

Saddam wasn't a commie.


32 posted on 09/26/2005 6:05:29 PM PDT by Terpfen (http://www.pattonhq.com/unknowntext.html)
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To: chaos theory

33 posted on 09/26/2005 6:21:53 PM PDT by TNPatriot (If we aren't the mainstream, why do we nearly control all three branches of Government?)
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To: chaos theory
Tired of hitting Troll holes BIGGER than J-Lo's ASS???
Then call the RKBA Fast... Pavers UP!!!

Looks like meat's back on the menu boys!!!

34 posted on 09/26/2005 6:34:05 PM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist ©®)
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To: chaos theory

Damn, late for ZOT!

Is the kitchen still open?


35 posted on 09/26/2005 6:51:13 PM PDT by TheForceOfOne (It was a village of idiots that raised Hillary to Senator status.)
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To: chaos theory

Hey, troll, Bush won, get over it!

BTW, here's some cheese.

Oh, and also, you are is you're, your is possessive.

You are stuck on stupid.

36 posted on 09/26/2005 6:52:50 PM PDT by SolidRedState (E Pluribus Funk --- (Latin taglines are sooooo cool! Don't ya think?))
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To: chaos theory

37 posted on 09/26/2005 7:11:00 PM PDT by reagan_fanatic (Darwinism is a belief in the meaninglessness of existence - R. Kirk)
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To: Republican Wildcat
Mr. chaos theory???

yup... looks like a Troll to me!!!
38 posted on 09/26/2005 7:15:32 PM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist ©®)
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To: chaos theory

39 posted on 09/26/2005 7:17:04 PM PDT by HighWheeler ("There is nothing worse than self-deception where the deceiver is always with you." - Randi)
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To: ExitPurgamentum

That article didn't go into the "Zionist" conspiracy thing behind the Iraq War. If anyone wants to read some of that B.S., Republican Congressman Ron Paul's speech to the House of Representatives on "Why We Fight" is available at:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul274.html

I read it because I'm on a bipartisan forum where a liberal had posted it for people to discuss. Ron Paul refers to the "Christian Zionists" and Israel's influence.


40 posted on 09/26/2005 7:59:32 PM PDT by Susannah (http://www.tellthechildrenthetruth.com http://www.sperryfiles.com)
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To: Susannah
Ron Paul refers to the "Christian Zionists" and Israel's influence.

It's an old anti-Semitic accusation --- that Jews are more loyal to Israel than to U.S. and being so "smart" trick such simpletons as Ramsfeld, Rice, Chaney...

The same was leveled against Catholics for centuries: they were expected to be more loyal to Vatican and betray this country in a heartbeat. All this is bigotry and garbage, and an old one at that. Why would one want to read racist garbage?

41 posted on 09/26/2005 9:10:12 PM PDT by ExitPurgamentum
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To: chaos theory
It is possible that other oil countries could follow Iraq's lead by allowing payment in Dollars or Euro's for oil.

It is not only possible, it is now likely. Iran has announced it will open an oil bourse in the coming months, with payment in Euros accepted. The significance of this for geopolitics cannot be overstated. The dollar enjoys its status as the world's reserve currency because currently evey nation has to exchange its currency for dollars to buy oil. This creates an artificial demand for dollars. That demand helps to prop the dollar up.

China, Russia, and to a lesser extent, Europe, all want this to change. Some Arab nations also want it to change, because as the situation now stands they collect barrels of dollars, which puts their capital at risk should the dollar fall. It did fall for three years in a row, prompting folks like Warren Buffett and Bill Gates to convert millions of dollars to other investments. Then the dollar strengthened, for several reasons.

With the administration vowing to spend billions on the gulf coast; with a trade deficit of 600-700 billion; with a federal deficit previously projected in the 300-400 billion range; with an American savings rate that is now negative; with Americans borrowing 2.7-3 billion per day, which is about 80% of the rest of the world's savings, the dollar will almost certainly begin to fall again. Any conservative who does not plan accordingly is abnegating financial responsibility to himself and his family.

Foreign central banks, who buy about half of U.S. debt, have indicated their unwillingness to continue buying massive amounts of that debt. Government data show those banks are following through on those statements. The slack is currently being picked up by institutions in the Carribean, and Lord only knows where those folks are coming up with that kind of dough. With no domestic savings to fund increased deficit spending, the Fed likely will be forced to monetize that debt. That means printing more money. The fed will have to counter this inflationary action by continuing on its rate raisng venture to maintain a strong dollar. This means higher interest rates, with a corresponding rise in ARMs, which account for over 30% of home mortgages in the past year or so, 40% or more in areas where real estate has entered the bubble stage. As marginal homeowners get squeezed, they find themselves up against the new bankruptcy law, which raises their monthly credit card payment. In this environment we will find out whether the stock market is overvalued or not, and gold and silver or undervalued or not.

42 posted on 09/26/2005 9:19:08 PM PDT by phelanw
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To: chaos theory
The burning question in cyber-space today is...

"Who has as much superfluous punctuation as the Q'u'a'r'a'n?"

43 posted on 09/26/2005 9:55:31 PM PDT by Watery Tart ("First, NO Mayor Ray Naga… Nogg… Nagg… Not gonna work here anymore, anyway!" ~~One of the Bobs)
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To: chaos theory

BZZZT! New Rule on FR: Trolls can't use the term "neocon" unless they can define it. Than we ZOT you anyway.


44 posted on 09/26/2005 10:07:52 PM PDT by Watery Tart ("First, NO Mayor Ray Naga… Nogg… Nagg… Not gonna work here anymore, anyway!" ~~One of the Bobs)
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To: Watery Tart

neocon is nocoen spelled backwards


45 posted on 09/26/2005 10:13:22 PM PDT by woofie
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To: phelanw
Can Iraq's Policy Affect the US$ and Euro? Iraq decided to no longer accept dollars for oil... what do you think will be the effect on the greenback and on the Euro?"

The burning question in cyber-space today is "Will this policy be limited to just Iraq?"

We'll find out after the Iranian oil bourse opens. Or maybe before.

By the way, if you like coffee it is past time to stock up. Almost all imports come/came through the port of New Orleans. No new deliveries for the foreseeable future.

46 posted on 09/26/2005 10:30:53 PM PDT by phelanw
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To: woofie

Ahhh, THAT explains it! Sounds anti-Semitic to me.

Maybe this is why they always refer to themselves as "evissergorP" lately.

Have you noticed that they never use the word "larebiL" any more when they (often) talk about themselves?

;o)


47 posted on 09/26/2005 10:55:59 PM PDT by Watery Tart ("First, NO Mayor Ray Naga… Nogg… Nagg… Not gonna work here anymore, anyway!" ~~One of the Bobs)
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To: phelanw
This would also reverse the trade deficit for the US, as a devalued currency would make US-made products much more attractive in world Euro-based markets.

This is one of the few parts of the article I disagree with. Nearly all our manufacturing base has been exported to Asia. I looked at a box of nails the other day while mending something. "Made in China." My son's bike: "Made in China." Shower curtain: "Made in China." Motherboard: "Made in China." etc. We don't make anything to export. Wedding planners? Personal trainers? Karate instructors? I don't think so. When the dolllar falls all our base are belong to the exporters. Cause we don't make it here anymore.

Interested to see what nonsense follows.

48 posted on 09/26/2005 11:22:50 PM PDT by phelanw
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To: ExitPurgamentum

"Why would one want to read racist garbage?"

I read the Ron Paul article just so that I could point out the flaws in his rationale. It really is disgusting how so many liberals and paleocons have become such staunch opponents of Israel. Plus they absolutely deny that Jewish/Zionist is a race. Some even consider Zionism to be a form of racism that was carried out against Arabs.

Ron Paul, by the way, does have a real following here at freerepublic so some people don't want to hear anything that may make him look bad. Personally, I had no problem posting the June congressional resolution that condemned anti-Semitism (mostly about Israel) and pointing out that Ron Paul and Democrat Cynthia McKinney were the only two members of congress to vote against it.

anti-semitism resolution posted at:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1488230/posts


49 posted on 09/27/2005 1:19:48 AM PDT by Susannah (http://www.tellthechildrenthetruth.com http://www.sperryfiles.com)
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To: chaos theory

I'm sick of this bunk by the left.

#1 Saddam was financing terror, including homicide bombings in Israel.
#2 Mass graves found in the hundreds of thousands.

Which mass grave was your favorite?


50 posted on 09/27/2005 1:23:17 AM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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