Weather Forecaster: "It's 20% Colder This Past Month" -- WHAAAT?

Free Republic ^ | 12/23/05 | self

[writmeister]

All I can say is that, after nine winters in my house here in Texas, this is the first time I had a frozen waterline -- albeit, I was previously unaware that my furnace used a waterline.

[Lil'freeper]

All your base, friend. All your base.

;)

[carlr]

My guess is they are using the original value of 39 degrees as the base.
At that point 10% of that value would be 3.9.A true 20% would be 7.8.
Since the decline was 10 it would actually be greater than 20% so they just used that for a round figure.

It is the same way one measures returns shares of a stock or mutual fund.

[dakine]

Early eggnog?

[PhilipFreneau]

If the average December temperature last years was 40 degrees, a 20% drop would be 8 degrees, which would make the average temperature this year 32 degrees.

For the record, our power bill (Philly suburbs) stated the temperature from 8 November to 8 December was 4 degrees colder than last year. It has been much colder the past few weeks.

[beyond the sea]

Temperature is the measurement of the average kinetic energy of the particles of a substance. In all substances (air, water, a Christmas roast, etc), the particles that comprise it are in motion (wobble and vibrate), which means they have kinetic energy. It's the kinetic energy that is converted to heat as the particles bump into each other. Absolute zero (-273 C, -459 F, 0 K, and 0 R) means the particles of the substance are not in motion at all, and therefore have no kinetic energy and give off no heat. ............. -459 degrees F is 0 degrees Rankine. To drop from 39 F to 29 F is really a drop from 498 R to 488 R. That's only a 2.01% drop in temperature.

Great post. Thank you very much for the concise and easily understood explanation.

LOL - Ron Zook. He was a special team's coach here in Pittsburgh for the Stillers back from '96 to '98, I think.

[beyond the sea]

It is the same way one measures returns shares of a stock or mutual fund.

No.

With stocks and mutual funds you are beginning at 0. Not with heat or temperature.

See post # 39 for the correct answer.

...... and have a wonderful Christmas Holiday.

[beyond the sea]

early eggnog

LOL. I think I need some. I'm taking this matter way too seriesly.

Btw, if you want the real answer to this, see post # 39. A great explanation......... and some humor at the end.

;-)

[beyond the sea]

see post # 39 for the actual answer.

[IamConservative]

93.2% of all journalists make up 76.9% of their facts right on the spot approximately 87.3% of the time. I did round up, so don't calculate the driving time to Albuquerque using this data.

[beyond the sea]

LOL.

Excellent!

Merry Christmas ...... to you.

[burzum]

It's the kinetic energy that is converted to heat (1) as the particles bump into each other. Absolute zero (-273 C, -459 F, 0 K, and 0 R) means the particles of the substance are not in motion at all, and therefore have no kinetic energy and give off no heat (2).

I hate to nitpick, and please don't take offense, but I should mention that you have to be extremely careful when using the word 'heat' in a physical sense. In the first case where you used heat, I think it would be better to describe it as saying that the random kinetic energy of the constituent particles of a substance contribute to the internal energy which can be measured by the temperature (though it may take additional theorems and calculations unless it is an ideal gas). Heat is an energy flow from two objects of different temperatures. In the second case, while it is *technically* correct, it is misleading. It is correct that you cannot have heat transfer *from* a body that has no internal energy to one that does, since a negative internal energy is not defined in this case. I don't know if you intended to say that or not.

One final nitpick, and you probably meant this but I'd like to point it out explicitly. Absolute zero, which does not exist (it is a limiting condition), will have no relative motion among the degrees of freedom of a particle (translational motion, rotational motion, vibrational motion) with respect to each other. This does not mean that its temperature is dependent on its velocity relative to you, for example.

[Klickitat]

"I guess those under-the-ocean volcanoes aren't doing their job."

According to the article link b4ranch posted they are. From the article:

" Don’t think that there are not doomsday scenarios associated with increased cooling. As heat from the sun diminishes during the end of interglacials, the increasing mass of the growing icecaps stresses the Earth’s crust. According to one theory, this increases volcanic activity. About 80 percent of Earth’s volcanoes are underwater. When they erupt ocean temperatures will likely increase. Then air temperatures will increase and temperate zone glaciers will melt. Sea ice and ice on coastal areas will melt."

[IamConservative]

On the subject of Weather reporterettes, Jillian Barbery on Fox NFL Sunday has to be the low water mark for denigrating the profession. Very easy on the eyes mind you, but wouldn't know to come in out of the rain.

[lizma]

All I know is that the woolly worms around here had no brown rings on their "fur". A sign of a cold winter, and I trust them (and the Old Farmer's Almanac) way more than I trust Al Gore.

[beyond the sea]

HUH?

;-)

[beyond the sea]

Me too.......... mine were almost all black too.

And one other thing. My oak trees dropped some huge acorns early this year....... that has usually meant (here) a cold and long winter.

[Rutles4Ever]

Is it just me or is he morphing into Boris Yeltsin??

[CPOSharky]

Journalists are notorious for mathematical goofs like this. I remember one headline in the Denver Post that said that it was safer to drive on wet roads. The reasoning was from a statistic that said most accidents occur on dry roads.

Most accidents occur within 25 miles of home. So I moved.

[Rutles4Ever]