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Top 10 Senate Races of 2006
Human Events Online ^ | 24 January 2006 | John Gizzi

Posted on 01/23/2006 8:03:28 PM PST by Aussie Dasher

10. Rhode Island

Lincoln Chafee, easily one of the most liberal Republicans in the Senate, faces a determined primary challenge from Cranston Mayor Steven Laffey, who is more conservative. The Democratic nominee is likely to be former State Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse.

9. Michigan

Arch-liberal Debbie Stabenow was the closest winner among new Democratic senators elected in 2000. At a time when Michigan GOPers are on a political roll under State Chairman Saul Anuzis, she will face a strong challenge from either of the potential Republican candidates—Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard or former Detroit City Councilman Keith Butler, an articulate black conservative.

8. Tennessee

With Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist retiring, Democrats are going all out for Rep. Harold Ford, Jr., their 1996 national convention keynoter and one of the most high-profile black Democratic office-holders. The GOP primary to succeed Frist features three strong contenders: former Rep. Van Hilleary; former Rep. and Clinton impeachment manager Ed Bryant; and former State Party Chairman Bob Coker, who has vast personal resources to spend on his campaign.

7. Florida

Conservative Rep. Katherine Harris, who as secretary of state in 2000 certified Florida’s electoral votes for George W. Bush and thus helped make him President, is the certain GOP challenger to moderate Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. National Republicans fear Harris will stir up Democratic anger around the country, but she enjoys heroine status among her state’s grassroots GOP activists.

6. Arizona

Two-term GOP Sen. Jon Kyl faces a well-funded challenge from multi-millionaire developer and State Democratic Chairman Jim Pedersen, who is credited with rebuilding the state party with his personal wealth.

5. Missouri

Freshman Republican Sen. Jim Talent, a strong conservative, narrowly won an ’02 special election over the widow of the late Democratic Gov. Mel Carnahan. Polls show Talent in a neck-and-neck battle this year against liberal Democrat Claire McCaskill, the former state auditor who lost the governorship in a squeaker in ’04.

4. Montana

Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, who survived a close call in 2000, has given back more than $150,000 in donations generated by disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Latest polls show an increasingly close race against the Democratic candidate, State Auditor John Morrison.

3. Minnesota

The seat Sen. Mark Dayton (D.) is relinquishing is perhaps the GOP’s best chance of a net gain in the Senate anywhere. In a state gradually turning “red,” conservative Rep. Mark Kennedy has wrapped up the GOP nomination, while four lesser-known Democrats are vying for their party’s nod to succeed Dayton.

2. Maryland

Rep. Ben Cardin and former NAACP head Kweisi Mfume are waging a fierce battle for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D.). Their infighting could help Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele become the second black GOP senator in the nation since Reconstruction. A Rasmussen poll shows pro-lifer Steele slightly leading both Cardin and Mfume.

1. Pennsylvania

Easily the showcase race for conservatives throughout the nation. Two-term Sen. Rick Santorum (R.), outspoken on abortion and conservative on most issues, faces Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., former state auditor and son of a popular former governor. Casey’s name and own pro-life stance have put him ahead of Santorum in most polls, but the senator has bounced back and won before.


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; conradburns; elections; jimtalent; katherineharris; markkennedy; michaelsteele; santorum; ussenate
Let the games begin!
1 posted on 01/23/2006 8:03:30 PM PST by Aussie Dasher
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To: Aussie Dasher

Missouri is a solid Republican state. Talent will win easily.


2 posted on 01/23/2006 8:06:21 PM PST by TheRealDBear
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To: Aussie Dasher


I'm donating to Michael Steele.


3 posted on 01/23/2006 8:06:49 PM PST by onyx
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To: Aussie Dasher

Claire McCaskill is the current state Auditor. The article made an error.


4 posted on 01/23/2006 8:07:14 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (Sam Alito Deserves To Be Confirmed)
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To: Aussie Dasher

Van Hilleary - what an unfortunate name.


5 posted on 01/23/2006 8:08:31 PM PST by Wally_Kalbacken
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To: Aussie Dasher

Bill Nelson sucks. I'd vote for a Communist over that thief (the man stole from American taxpayers a free ride on the space shuttle)--at least you know the Communist is honest about their theft. And Katherine Harris is a great American.


6 posted on 01/23/2006 8:09:30 PM PST by LibertarianInExile (Freedom isn't free--no, there's a hefty f'in fee--and if ya don't throw in your buck-o-5, who will?)
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To: Wally_Kalbacken

Van Hilleary...sounds like a Dutch witch!


7 posted on 01/23/2006 8:09:57 PM PST by Aussie Dasher (The Great Ronald Reagan & John Paul II - Heaven's Dream Team!)
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To: Wally_Kalbacken
"Van Hilleary - what an unfortunate name."

Van is his middle name. His first name is William.

8 posted on 01/23/2006 8:17:36 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Hilleary is the unfortunate part. It is pronounced just like that other witch's name.



9 posted on 01/23/2006 8:22:10 PM PST by scrabblehack
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To: LibertarianInExile
And Katherine Harris is a great American.

And a hottie to boot.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

10 posted on 01/23/2006 8:22:27 PM PST by lesser_satan
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To: Aussie Dasher

They forgot to mention Jerry Zandstra in Michigan. Don't count him out.


11 posted on 01/23/2006 8:23:31 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("What does a guy have to do to get fired around here?" - Darryl Rogers, former Lions Coach)
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To: Aussie Dasher

No mention of New Jersey, where Kean has a significant lead over Menendez. If the GOP takes NJ, MD, and MN, as is very possible, the Republicans can lose PA and MT and still gain a seat. Amazing.


12 posted on 01/23/2006 8:26:14 PM PST by denydenydeny ("As a Muslim of course I am a terrorist"--Sheikh Omar Brooks, quoted in the London Times 8/7/05)
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To: denydenydeny

Atleast we could mention John Spencer as a formidable conservative willing to take on Hillary Clinton in New York...Come on, we've got to help this man anyway we can, not omit his name simply because people have thrown up their hands in surrender to Hillary before the primary has even started! GO JOHN SPENCER - GO JOHN SPENCER!


13 posted on 01/23/2006 8:31:24 PM PST by princess leah
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To: lesser_satan

I would give good money to see that horse at a full gallop. Harris's er...endowment...would probably knock her out. A one-two punch, as it were.


14 posted on 01/23/2006 8:37:27 PM PST by LibertarianInExile (Freedom isn't free--no, there's a hefty f'in fee--and if ya don't throw in your buck-o-5, who will?)
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To: Aussie Dasher
Here is my take on these races:

1. Pennsylvania - Best shot with Rick Santorum
Most Likely Outcome: Casey (D) 53% Santorum (R) 45% Other 2%
Loss of Seat

2. Maryland - Best shot with Michael Steele
Most Likely Outcome: Cardin (D) 51% Steele (R) 48% Other 1%
Dimwit Hold

3. Minnesota - Best shot with Mark Kennedy
Most Likely Outcome: Kennedy (R) 51% Klobuchar (D) 47% Other 2%
Republican Pickup

4. Montana - Best Shot with Denny Rehberg
Most Likely Outcome: Burns (R) 51% Morrison (D) 49%
Republican Hold

5. Missouri - Best Shot with Jim Talent
Most Likely Outcome: Talent (R) 54% McCaskill (D) 45% Other 1%
Republican Hold

6. Arizona - Best Shot with Jon Kyl
Most Likely Outcome: Kyl (R) 56% Pederson (D) 44%
Republican Hold

7. Florida - Best Shot with Jeb Bush (not gonna happen I know)
Most Likely Outcome: Nelson (D) 55% Harris (R) 44% Other 1%
Dimwit Hold

8. Tennessee - Best Shot with Van Hilleary
Most Likely Outcome: Van Hilleary (R) 52% Ford (D) 48%
Republican Hold

9. Michican - Best Shot with Keith Butler
Most Likely Outcome: Stabenow (D) 58% Bouchard (R) 42%
Dimwit Hold

10. Rhode Island - Best Shot with Lincoln Chafee (to hold seat, but Stephen Laffey is the best candidate)
Most Likely Outcome: Chafee (RINO) 55% Whitehouse (D) 45%
RINO Hold

Overall No Change.
15 posted on 01/23/2006 8:38:43 PM PST by MassachusettsGOP (Massachusetts Republican....A rare breed indeed)
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To: All
Poll: Kyl Leads Big over Pederson in U.S. Senate Race

Not surprising.

16 posted on 01/23/2006 8:39:12 PM PST by AZ_Cowboy ("There they go again...")
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To: Aussie Dasher

I'll tell you this, Steele will win Maryland. Thank God Maryland can finally do something for the GOP nationally. I've met him, he's a great guy.


17 posted on 01/23/2006 8:40:04 PM PST by Vision ("You guys are literally the cream of the crop of political analysis")
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To: MassachusettsGOP

My Money is on Ford in TN - the man is extremely sharp - will easily win over independents IMHO. He will have tons of Dem money to boot.


18 posted on 01/23/2006 8:42:52 PM PST by txzman (Jer 23:29)
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To: Aussie Dasher

Stabenow only won in 2000 after precincts in East Lansing stopped checking IDs and Detroit stayed open after hours. That one went down to the wire, and of course she won. It's almost worth moving back to Michigan just to vote her out of office -- it's not like Texas candidates need my help...


19 posted on 01/23/2006 8:53:03 PM PST by MikeD (We live in a world where babies are like velveteen rabbits that only become real if they are loved.)
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To: Vision

The first time I recall hearing him was his speech at the Convention in NY. I sat here and was totally blown over by him - - REALLY hope he wins - -I think he's SUPER!


20 posted on 01/23/2006 8:53:13 PM PST by Seattle Conservative (God bless and protect our troops and their CIC. (Seahawks are going to the Superbowl!!))
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To: Seattle Conservative
The first time I recall hearing him was his speech at the Convention in NY. I sat here and was totally blown over by him - - REALLY hope he wins - -I think he's SUPER!

First time I heard him was election night in 2002, introducing Ehrlich. He made some of the most vapid, dumbass political statements I've ever heard. The good news is he's stopped that.
21 posted on 01/23/2006 8:56:09 PM PST by Vision ("You guys are literally the cream of the crop of political analysis")
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To: MassachusettsGOP

I hope you're right about Mark Kennedy. I've contributed money towards his Senate race.

Current polls have him trailing presumptive Dem nominee Amy Klobuchar.

Klobuchar has a lot of name ID in the Twin Cities metro area and will rake in a significant share of the female vote.

But the good news is that Kennedy is within range of Kobuchar. he can win this race - but he definitely has a slight uphill challenge in front of him.


22 posted on 01/23/2006 9:00:49 PM PST by MplsSteve
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To: Aussie Dasher

With all the libs in Seattle, it may not change, but I think there's a slight chance Maria-Can't-Do-Well could lose (i they don't double-count, and don't count illegals, deceased, etc., etc. votes in King County).

Mike McGavick just kicked of his run last week. He's the former President of Safeco Ins. It may also help that Chris Vance, the state Pubbie chairman stepped down (nice enough guy, but should have done that a couple of years ago)

McGavick calls for "civility" in Senate

By Cara Solomon
Seattle Times reporter

STEVE RINGMAN / THE SEATTLE TIMES

Senate candidate Mike McGavick, with his wife, Gaelynn, listens backstage as he is introduced Saturday at a campaign-kickoff event at Seattle Center.

STEVE RINGMAN / THE SEATTLE TIMES

Mike McGavick, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, talked about the Alito hearings, the federal budget and the war in Iraq during a kickoff event Saturday in Seattle.


Former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick kicked off his campaign Saturday for a U.S. Senate seat, saying he would bring a "Northwestern voice of civility" to what he described as a culture of infighting in the nation's capital.

The event at the Seattle Center drew hundreds of GOP supporters, including speakers state Attorney General Rob McKenna and U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Auburn. They described McGavick as a decisive leader and a great hope for the state's Republican party.

McGavick is considered the leading contender against Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell this November. He declared his candidacy last autumn and has already raised more than $1.5 million in the lead-up to the Republican primary in September.

Saturday's event was McGavick's first stop on a six-day tour of 18 communities around the state. He talked in broad terms about the need for a balanced budget, more secure national borders and a win in the war on terrorism, no matter how long that takes. He emphasized the importance of safety and opportunity for all of America's children.

But mostly, McGavick spoke of the need for civility in the U.S. Senate. He pointed to the recent questioning of Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito as evidence of just how embittered the Senate has become. He expressed sympathy for Alito's wife, who left one hearing in tears.

"I think all of us turned in shame and disgust at the sham the Senate has become," he said.

This is a first run for political office by McGavick, a 47-year-old father of three. But as a young man, he worked for former Washington U.S. Sen. Slade Gorton, R-Wash., first as campaign manager and later as chief of staff. Gorton, who was at Saturday's event, lost to Cantwell by a narrow margin in 2000.

rest of article here:
http://archives.seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/texis.cgi/web/vortex/display?slug=mcgavick22&date=20060122&query=mcgavick


23 posted on 01/23/2006 9:01:06 PM PST by Seattle Conservative (God bless and protect our troops and their CIC. (Seahawks are going to the Superbowl!!))
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To: MplsSteve

The Ford name is mud anywhere in TN except memphis not only does crook jr lose but he loses badly


24 posted on 01/23/2006 9:02:05 PM PST by jneesy (certified southern right wing hillbilly nutjob)
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To: scrabblehack

Bill Van Hilleary
Bill and Hillary

And I voted against him last primary... will vote against him this primary... will likely end up having to support him over Ford.


25 posted on 01/23/2006 9:58:43 PM PST by Ingtar (Understanding is a three-edged sword : your side, my side, and the truth in between ." -- Kosh)
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To: txzman

Unfortunately, I think you're right, unless some of his family's 'troubles' rub off on him.


26 posted on 01/23/2006 10:00:41 PM PST by Seattle Conservative (God bless and protect our troops and their CIC. (Seahawks are going to the Superbowl!!))
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To: MassachusettsGOP

Steele wins in MD. Yes it is a dem state, but cardin and mfume are pretty bad candidates.

DeWine may go down in Ohio. It will be close.


27 posted on 01/23/2006 10:07:52 PM PST by staytrue (MOONBAT CONSERVATIVES are those who would rather lose to a liberal than support a moderate)
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To: MassachusettsGOP

You're wrong on two counts, Maryland and Michigan. Both will be in the GOP column on election day!!


28 posted on 01/23/2006 10:44:48 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 ("Grow your own dope. Plant a liberal")
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To: Aussie Dasher
"1. Pennsylvania
Easily the showcase race for conservatives throughout the nation."
Yes this is a showcase conservative race, but it will be not one little bit more of a showcase for conservative ideas than the campaign of John Spencer against Mr. Bill Clinton.
John Spencer is the warrior we have be waiting for. He is not afraid of the name clinton. http://www.joinspencer.com
29 posted on 01/24/2006 4:45:22 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (We will never murtha to the terrorists. Bring home the troops means bring home the war.)
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To: txzman

He will need his daddy and his auntie Ophelia to get the dead voters in Shelby county out for him to win, after the NRA goes full blitz on his 2nd ammendment ratings in the middle and east part of the state.


30 posted on 01/24/2006 6:25:13 AM PST by Sybeck1
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To: GeorgeW23225

No way in Hell will Michigan be in the GOP column on Election Day, Maryland, its possible, but I never doubt the "get out the vote effort" the Democrats might try to pull in Baltimore.


31 posted on 01/24/2006 1:39:37 PM PST by MassachusettsGOP (Massachusetts Republican....A rare breed indeed)
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To: staytrue

I forgot about Ohio, but i dont see it here on this list.


32 posted on 01/24/2006 1:41:08 PM PST by MassachusettsGOP (Massachusetts Republican....A rare breed indeed)
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To: MassachusettsGOP

You're right. My apologies. I meant to say Minnesota and Maryland. While I'm at it, let me add New Jersey.


33 posted on 01/24/2006 3:23:08 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 ("Grow your own dope. Plant a liberal")
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To: MassachusettsGOP

He also forgot to put New Jersey and Virginia on his list......


34 posted on 01/24/2006 3:27:37 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 ("Grow your own dope. Plant a liberal")
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To: GeorgeW23225

Virginia? Really?, Warner doesn't appear to be running, Currently only Harris Miller, a lobbyist plans to run against Allen. I think Virginia is looking pretty safe. As for NJ, I agree, this should be on the list.


35 posted on 01/24/2006 4:02:04 PM PST by MassachusettsGOP (Massachusetts Republican....A rare breed indeed)
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To: MassachusettsGOP
I didn't mean to give you the impression that a democRAT has a chance here in Virginia of upsetting George Allen. They don't. I was simply pointing out that there were many deletions on the original list posted of Senate races this year. I would have preferred to see all 33 races listed, not just someone's opinion of the "top" 10.

I think if taken in toto, a person can reasonably see the possibility of the GOP picking up 2 or 3 Senate seats.
36 posted on 01/24/2006 9:02:19 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 ("Grow your own dope. Plant a liberal")
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Comment #37 Removed by Moderator

To: txzman
Ford of TN has an unfair advantage because without printing one bumper sticker, thousands of cars in TN prominently display his name. Van Hilleary has petitioned GM to reciprocate by naming a car line after him but was declined after fears that any car with Hilleary on it would veer dangerously to the left! Thank you I'll be here all week!
38 posted on 02/02/2006 8:21:39 PM PST by Boiling point (If God had not meant for man to eat animals, he wouldn't have made them out of meat!)
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