Posted on 04/05/2006 2:30:10 PM PDT by jmc1969
Al Qaida network chief Abu Mussib Al Zarqawi has lowered his profile in Iraq to focus on operations in the Levant.
Western intelligence sources said Al Zarqawi has increased activities in such countries as Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority. They said Al Zarqawi has sought to lay the groundwork for an Islamic war against Israel.
"Zarqawi is very busy these days," an intelligence source said. "But his attention is moving from Iraq to the Gaza Strip."
The sources said Al Zarqawi has been forming ties with Palestinian insurgents in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. They said Al Zarqawi has begun to cooperate with the head of the military wing of Hamas, Mohammed Deif. They said that in 2006, about a dozen Al Qaida operatives entered the Gaza Strip to form cells.
Shocking.
< /rolls eyes >
The media seems to catch up with things quite slowly don't they?
ping
Exactly right, thanks to the coalition of the willing, which includes the vast majority of Iraqis. Osama bin Laden and his ilk won't even rise to the level of a pimple on the butt of history.
As we have seen time and time again, the Israelis have stellar counterterrorism intelligence. They are combat hardened and well armed, and the operational area through which one can wage war on Israel is significantly smaller than in Iraq. (Although they will likely have long-range rockets compliments of Hezbollah.)
Not to mention we have about 100K American troops just itching for some payback, that could open another front in such a war.
Ping to my above
He could be in Lebanon or Syria directing activity toward the Gaza strip.
There is alot of different possibilities.
AQ in Iraq supposedly released a statement just last week, IIRC, where they announced his replacement.
Exactly. This was reported/predicted some time last year.
Recall this article:
http://www.sudantribune.com/article.php3?id_article=11266
The Australian
Aug 25, 2005 (London) Britain and the US are training border guards in the Horn of Africa in the belief that al-Qaidas leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, may seek sanctuary there if forced to flee Iraq.
[...]
Zarqawi would have little option but to leave once the country was politically stable. "We think he might move to the Horn of Africa," Major-General Lute said. "Its a vast space, which causes us concern."
"Ping to my above" Ping. Your statements may just become a reality. Mossad probably knows more about him, then some of his lieutenants.
"No! It is all lies! All lies, I tell you!"
He's *not* in Syria.
The Mujaheeden already lost one war in recent history trying to overthrow daddy Assad. The Alamites and Hasamites don't get along wit Al Qaeda.
If Zarqawi was in Syria, there'd be one heckofa shooting war going on there between Syria and Al Qaeda.
In the self-contradicting politics of the Middle East, Syria was Iran's ally against Iraq under Hussein, but Hussein's ally in the Ba'athist wars against Islamic fundamentalism.
Or more simply, the Assads and Husseins were in it for themselves, not for the greater glory of Islam. This was actually *possible* due to cultures in the region that were accustomed to being ruled by a king/dictator as easily as by a Mullah.
We've also got to keep in mind that Boy Junior Assad is a bit slow-minded compared to his father. More mistakes are a given (against Al Qaeda, against the West, etc.).
Syria also has a significant Kurdish rebellion that periodically threatens to break out into the open.
Keep in mind that even Boy Assad could discern that Syria was over-extended in Lebanonl hence, Syria quickly and fully withdrew its army from there as soon as President Bush said "Boo!"
RE#14 Bingo. The Iraqis are getting their Streisand together on the security front and will not fail. It just takes time....
At the risk of contradicting my current post above, Zarqawi could be *anywhere*.
I expect him to be in the lawless part of Southern Lebanon.
But Al Qaeda has probed several countries with attacks (e.g. subway bombings in the UK, hotel bombings in Jordan, attempted attacks in Saudi Arabia, resort bombing in Egypt, border attacks in Pakistan, suicide attacks in Afghanistan, piracy off of Sudan, etc.).
If Al Qaeda perceives an exploitable weakness from any such probing attack, then I'd expect Zarqawi to rush to exploit it (because Al Qaeda needs a "success" to overshadow their recent string of un-ending failures).
Certainly Al Qaeda's "great offensive" in Afghanistan turned out to be a flop for them this year, and if Israel withdraws and disengages (and builds the wall) in the West Bank, then Al Qaeda will have lost one of its prime Palestinian recruiting grounds.
I think that it's becoming undeniable that Al Qaeda has failed in Iraq, too...though I expect the dust to take a bit longer to settle there.
The Jordan hotel bombing backfire, the failure of Al Qaeda in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the need for "popular" victories leads me to think that Zarqawi will seek to coordinate Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, and Hamas attacks in Israel...and the best place to do all three is from Southern Lebanon.
I'd say it's a bit early to make that call. Attacks always pick up as spring advances, and we're only in early April. But I do hope you're correct.
Putting on my kingpin terrorist head scarf, I'd be hesitant to operate from southern Lebanon. One, what you say makes sense from a geographic perspective. If you and I know that, then so do all the smart people looking for Zarqawi. And Zarqawi knows that. Plus, southern Lebanon severely restricts his movements. Water to the west, Israel to the south, Syria to the east and north (which has some potential for safe haven, but you've already mentioned the problems for AQ there). Jordan is fairly accessible via northern Israel, but I just don't see him penning himself in like that.
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