Report to FR on Freeper Candidate for Congress, NC 11th District

Special to FreeRepublic ^ | 3 May 2006 | John Armor (Congressman Billybob)

[Congressman Billybob]

This is the Fifth and Final - for now - Report on the Campaign for the 11th District in NC. The eight-term Congressman, Charles Taylor, has defeated me for the nomination of the Republican Party. However, Mr. Taylor's career as a Member of Congress is now over.

That paradoxical conclusion is not a matter of my opinion. It is based on observations of lifelong residents in western Carolina who've been active in politics most of their adult lives. Consider the parameters of this race:

Charles Taylor is a long term incumbent who worked his way up the ladder to a position on the Appropriations Committee of the House. His newsletters back to the District for years have featured the amounts of money garnered for various entities and local governments. Mr. Taylor had the apparent support of every Republican elected official in western Carolina. And he had effectively unlimited funds, in light of the fact that he loaned his own campaign slightly less than $990,000 in the last election cycle to have sufficient funds to win. All that loaned money has since been repaid to Mr. Taylor from on-going fundraising, so he is in a position to do the same thing in this election year.

In addition, Mr., Taylor had both a professional staff as a Member of Congress, and a volunteer staff of outsiders, to assist him in campaigning as he approached the primary. According to his Federal Election Commission filings, Mr. Taylor spent $255,000 before the primary election.

By contrast, I had no professional staff, and a very limited volunteer staff. I have never held any public elective office. My FEC filings show I spent less than $24,000, prior to this election.

You can understand why knowledgeable political observers told me I'd be fortunate to break 10% of the total vote in the Republican primary. One observer stated that if I "did take 20%, Taylor would be finished as a viable candidate for re-election." The total vote in the Republican primary was 32,845 as of 12:16 a.m., Wednesday. I received 19.8% of that vote. The results have been fairly consistent among the 15 counties in the District, and over time since first votes were reported at 8:08 pm yesterday. So, this result should hold up as the remaining votes in the District are reported.

In a split District where a winning Republican has to hold his base, more than break even among independents, and draw a few votes from conservative Democrats, Taylor's 20% leakage against me in the primary tells the local experts that Taylor cannot win the general election this year.

The first independent poll of the 11th District, probably by the Asheville Citizen-Times, will measure the race between Mr. Taylor and Heath Shuler, a one-time football player and first time candidate for public office, who won the Democrat primary today. If that poll, six months before the election, shows Shuler significantly ahead, then the conclusions of the experts who talked to me will be confirmed.

The bottom line has turned out as I described in my Fifth Report on the Campaign, before the primary. Either Congressman Taylor will conclude that he cannot win the general election this year and withdraw -- as Congressman DeLay did in Texas this year. Or, the leaders of the Republican Party, both locally and nationally, will compel Taylor to withdraw -- as Senator Torricelli was forced to do in New Jersey in 2006. This is NOT a year in which the Republicans can afford to throw away a seat in Congress because their current nominee cannot recognize defeat staring him in the face.

So, my campaign will not end at this point. It will go into semi-hibernation until such time as the Republican nomination in this District needs to be filled by the decision of the 11th District Republican Committee.

I hope that all of you are gratified by the results obtained so far, on the resources and skills available. I hope you will support me in the quiet effort to be prepared, in case there's a change in the Republican nomination. And I hope you will support me again, should I be the new Republican nominee.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts on this primary, and possibilities beyond that.

John

[MonroeDNA]

Good job!

[AntiScumbag]

Mr. Taylor's career as a Member of Congress is now over.

LOL. You're kidding, right? You don't have the grace to hang it up and endorse him, or at least go away quietly? You sound like Al Gore. Taylor's not going anywhere.

That paradoxical conclusion is not a matter of my opinion.

"Paradoxical conclusion?" Sounds a bit more like a delusional conclusion to me.

I spent less than $24,000

That's only one of the reasons why you got your @$$ kicked. The other primary reasons are 1) you didn't do any serious campaigning, you know, like knocking on virtually every door in your district, the kind of thing that most candidates with minimal funding routinely do, and 2) you're unelectable unless you live in Ron Paul's district and he retires, and even that's doubtful.

knowledgeable political observers told me I'd be fortunate to break 10%

Any "knowledgeable political observer" would have told you that anyone with a pulse will get around 20% of the primary vote from the perpetual-malcontent segment against any long-time incumbent. I'd guess that at least 95% of the people who voted for you don't have the slightest idea who you are or what you stand for, they just know that you're not Taylor.

So, my campaign will not end at this point.

Why? Ego? Face it. It's over. There's always 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020. Name recognition will set in at some point.

It will go into semi-hibernation

When wasn't it hibernating? Sitting at a keyboard plinking out posts on the internet doesn't count as serious campaigning.

I hope you will support me again, should I be the new Republican nominee.

Put down the bong and get real. Write an amicus brief or two. You'll probably feel better.

But, congratulations on losing your poorly-run joke of a vanity race and giving Shuler a better chance of winning by bad-mouthing Taylor when you had no chance of winning! Way to go!

[cva66snipe]

Sorry, Billybob, but 20% leakage is nothing for an incumbent in a primary. Anyone can get 20 percent, just look at the no-namers who run against other House incumbents. If you'd gotten 35 percent or more, then I'd be interested. Taylor's got a tough race ahead, but I don't think your showing is particularly discouraging for him

It's something when the DEM candidate is Heath Shuler. This is not by any means an unknown on the DEM side if it's the Heath Shuler I'm thinking of. Shuler will win it pretty easy. He is pretty well liked in his home state and the one directly east as well where he played college football :>} Shuler can win this race on popularity alone.

This one isn't gonna be about party it's going to be about the name. You can bet on it. It's hard to defeat an icon. He's also has a real estate agency with his name on it. Who knows he may be a lot more conservative than the RINO. I don't know enough about the race to know his platform to say one way or the other.

[joesbucks]

Well, I guess like Alan Keyes you ran for the election.

[Focault's Pendulum]

Good luck on your future endeavors.

[Alia]

NC *Ping*

Please FRmail Constitution Day OR TaxRelief OR Alia if you want to be added to or removed from this North Carolina ping list.

[Congressman Billybob]

Ah, you did not read the article with care. The race to replace Charles Taylor is now on. If I'm chosen to replace Taylor, I should defeat Shuler handily. As I say in my speeches, "When Heath Shuler was just out of diapers, I was winning my first case in the Supreme Court."

Shuler's campaign manager told me to my face that I would be a tougher opponent than Taylor -- because of Taylor's massive ethical and legal problems. And that analysis is correct.

I didn't enter this race to make a point. I entered it to gain election to Congress. That possibility remains very much alive, exactly as I stated above.

John / Billybob

[Alia]

$24K for name recognition, the opportunity to introduce your thoughts to others?

You did very well, Congressman Billybob. Congratulations.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

I am not familiar with Congressman Taylor. Why is he likely to loose? Is this district predominately GOP?

We can only hope that Heath Schuler is a poor a politician as he was a Redskins QB.

[Congressman Billybob]

No, I didn't accuse Tom DeLay of corruption. I followed the Torricelli situation in New Jersey closely. I think Torricelli was guilty as sin. I followed the DeLay situation in New Jersey. I think DeLay is a victim of trumped up charges which will eventually be dismissed.

However, the critical question about every candidate going into any election, is this: Can this candidate in these particular circumstances, win this election? DeLay answered that question about the general election as "no," and stepped aside for the good of his party.

Torricelli, being self-absorbed, had to be pushed very hard to get him out of there. The same may apply here in the 11th District.

Now, as to the dynamics of this race going forward, Shuler has been riding on the correct perception that he is more honest than Taylor, and a fresh face. Against me, both of those advantages disappear, and it becomes mano a mano.

I have more than 33 years experience working in and for local, state and federal government. Shuler has zero experience in any of those governments. I won't go into detail about my campaign plan against Shuler. It doesn't apply yet. But when it does, I expect to be the odds-on favorite to win.

All political races are situational. No one runs in the abstract. We all run against specific opponents in specific circumstances.

John / Billybob

[Congressman Billybob]

You should not assume that I would duck the answer to a question, especially when I have freely answered it in the past.

There are two Republican state senators, one man and one woman, who would dearly love to have Charles Taylor's seat in Congress. I've met both. Neither dared run against Taylor, but both will be in the hunt to replace Taylor, if that opportunity arises.

The Taylor people will probably seek to deny the new nomination to me. But I have the strongest background to run against Shuler, the Democrat. I've already been in touch -- going back a couple years -- with key members of the nomination Committee.

Bottom line: I rate my chances of being the new nominee as good, but less than 50-50. If I do get the new nomination, I rate my chances of election at better than 50-50. What I have just described is my Plan B. And, like any former engineer, I had a Plan B in my pocket since day one.

John / Armor

[TaxRelief]

Congratulations on ... giving Shuler a better chance of winning by bad-mouthing Taylor when you had no chance of winning!

In theory I agree with you, but this is ALWAYS true with primaries. Primaries always provide insight for the other side in the general election.

It is always a two way street. Both party primaries provide insight for the side. Look at the Dem results:

Heath Shuler DEM 29,185
Michael Morgan DEM 9,915

Morgan received 25% of the votes in the Dem primary. Did Morgan not provide ammunition for Taylor to use against Shuler in the general election?

Blaming Armor for exposing Taylor's weak points hinges on the assumption that Shuler would have been too stupid to discover the issues himself. We may not like him, but we can all agree that Shuler is not stupid.

[Congressman Billybob]

You are missing most of the facts about the candidates in this race. If you are truly interested in the fate of the 11th District, and whether that seat will be held for conservative Republican positions, you need to do your homework.

The first step has to be, Is Charles Taylor fatally damaged in his bid for reelection? (In the rare instances when incumbents lose, the fatal political injuries are almost always self-inflicted.)

Once you know why Taylor is fatally flawed at this point, then you will easily understand why a "content-free" candidate like Heath Shuler is favored to take the seat. And, once you understand that, you will easily see why several scandal-free Republicans, including me, can defeat Shuler, where Taylor could not.

Every step is logical. But you have to have a grip on the relevant facts.

John / Billybob

[Congressman Billybob]

You are wrong on so many points it's hard to know where to begin. Let's just take one point. I never "bad-mouthed Taylor." I wrote and published exactly one article that pointed out five different million-dollar and up errors in hie Reports filed with the Ethics Committee.

Taylor signed those Reports under penalties of perjury, and I quoted them accurately. No one in Taylor's camp has suggested that a single fact, name, date or number I cited was the slightest bit inaccurate.

As for the rest of your allegations, time and circumstance will answer them. Observe and learn.

And you seem to think that I was stating my own conclusions. As stated, I was stating the conclusions of political veterans, both Republicans and Democrats, who have spent their lives in politics in western Carolina. Your knowledge of the politics of this area is derived how?....

John / Billybob

[AntiScumbag]

Congratulations on ... giving Shuler a better chance of winning by bad-mouthing Taylor when you had no chance of winning!

I guess you missed my point, because you left it out of your quotation. Here it is again:

But, congratulations on losing your poorly-run joke of a vanity race and giving Shuler a better chance of winning by bad-mouthing Taylor when you had no chance of winning! Way to go!

Now the sore loser pulls out plan B. I can't wait for plans C, D and E.

[TaxRelief]

you left it out of your quotation.

I never quote personal attacks.

But back to the substance of the omitted portion, in what way was Armor's campaign poorly run?

What would you have done differently?

[Rebelbase]

There's a Taylor/Abramoff connection that certain parties think will cause him to have to drop out of this election.

[joesbucks]

No, I read it. I'll give you an A for faith and an F for reality.

But then again who knows. I'll make you a wager. If I'm correct, then next time I'm through Ashville, you can buy me a cup of coffee at one of the Java houses in the university district. If I'm wrong, I'll do the same for you. Deal?

[AntiGuv]

Michael Morgan was total moonbat leftist whose main issues were legalization of (a) drugs; (b) blackjack; and (c) illegals. I doubt the votes he got mean anything much beyond name recognition (Shuler's is still not that great), and there's certainly no doubt that anyone who voted for Morgan on his issues will not be voting for Taylor, but is probably an ironclad Shuler vote (anti-Taylor vote) in the general election.

[TaxRelief]

Do you think the Armor voters will vote for Shuler?