Skip to comments.Bush Losing Hispanics? (GOP ship of state becoming the Titanic?)
Posted on 05/21/2006 12:41:14 PM PDT by quidnunc
So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster. Each week more House seats once considered safe (60-65% for Bush in 04) are now on the endangered list for incumbent GOP congressmen. The list is probably over 50 at this point,and may grow some more.
More GOP senators are now in trouble. Add Jon Kyl of Arizoan to the list. He is now but 7 points ahead of a very wealthy competitor (last three polls showed him up 29, then 15, now 7). Seven GOP Senate seats are at risk and 3 Demcratic seats (maybe 4 if Mfume wins Democratic primary in Maryland).
Bush tried to thread the needle on immigration appeal to both conservatives and Hispanics and failed. He needed to get this bill through before passions were ignited, but his political weakness prevented that.
Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.
The demonstrations also hardened attitudes on the right. If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades, and the result will be similar to what happened in Califronia after Pete Wilsons immigration referendums (a 20% GOP voting share of Hispanics).
That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOPs dream of being a majority party this year.
Tell that to Mayor 'there's no way he can win' Nagin.
Fake Polls are for morons too lazy to think.
WaPo probably polled their janitorial staff...
Yes, not all janitors are hispanic, but liberals can't tell the difference between immigrants.
(To a liberal, all people of color look alike.)
Does the GOP establishment honestly believe that by giving 30 million Hispanics (and their tens of millions of relatives) amenesty they have a chance in hell of securing even a small fraction of their vote? This amnesty would be an electoral disaster beyond their worst nightmares.
Brought to you by cheap labor "conservatives" who have not really enforced immigration laws since the 1990 immigration "reform" act that Bush 41 signed. If this trend is maintained, sadly many good Republicans will be taken down.
this is the "elephant in the room" on this immigration issue. where are legal Hispanic Americans on this issue? I think its tough to read.
if the only way to get votes of legal Hispanic Americans - is too allow 100 million new Hispanic ummigrants over the next 20 years, via amnesty and family "unification" - this country is in serious trouble.
Leftwing writers at the Washington Post:
Writing the paper Americans won't read.
The establishment is represented by the likes of Fred Barnes and his ilk, who live mostly in the Northeast Corridor, plus a good sized contingent that live in California and Texas exurbs/gated communities that are far removed from reality. I am sick of the sellout of America for 30 peices of silver.
The GOP isn't smart enough to figure out that it is signing it's own death warrant by giving these illegal aliens amnesty. They will NEVER vote republican. Every one of these RINO senators will be targeted for defeat. Rush cannot say it often enough....when we run on conservative principles, we win every time.
they are between a rock and a hard place (not that I favor the amnesty mind you).
while its true that alot of white and african american Democrats do not favor amnesty, or the kinds of new immigrant numbers this bill would allow in - are those blocks willing to change their votes and go republican over this issue?
The Dems are clearly betting that their current base, will not switch parties over amnesty and new mass immigration.
Which side is right?
its not so much a concern over how the newly minted immigrants would vote - the issue is more, how will current hispanic american citizens vote on this issue?
I haven't seen any good polls on that.
Even if these new immigrants had a fully westeren background, just back their economic status alone, most will make less than $25K a year, will see them vote Democratic by a 2-1 margin when they vote for politicians that will give them all sorts of benifits, as what has happened to California. But with non Westeren and often Marxist backgrounds, even immigrants that are far up on the economic ladder, like the H-1B visa holders that become citizens vote for Democrats by a 2-1 or even a 3-1 margin.
I have mentioned this before, but it bears repeating, do business owners and managers who have been behind this mess since the early 80s lack the critical thinking skills to see that this will produce a national political enviroment that will be far worse than the carter years were in terms of the govrenmnet being anti business?
Am I the only one to think it is wrong for writers such as this to continue to lump all Hispanics together in the same voting bloc?
The only Hispanics I can tell that are in favor of kowtowing to the illegals are the illegals that are already here!
Legal hispanic here, as far as I am concerned the most pressing issue right now is our loss of immigration control, I strongly support fining all businessed that hire illegal aliens and militarizing our borders if need be.
I certainly agree with you about the NEW immigrants future voting patterns.
but what about current hispanic american citizens, which way are they going over this issue?
its a hard issue to read. myself, being in NY, most of my latino neighbors and co-workers are from cuba, puerto rico, dominican republic, etc. and they agree with your sentiment. but not being in the southwest where there is more of a mexican/central american demographic, is the opinion different in that block?
It's a safe bet. Traditional Dem voters will convince themselves that without the pressure their party put on the GOP this amnesty - a huge addition their precious multicultural soup - wouldn't have happened.
Also, a large chunk of these new citizens are natural Democrats -- 29% of all illegal aliens are on welfare. You think their welfare state mentality will vanish after they become citizens? Not a chance. They know full well the Dems are the party of handouts.
The non liberal white Democratic voters are in the most danager of bolting the Democratic party, should a viable 3rd party alternative emerge in 2008. While this contingent has been shrinking for decades, they still tilted the upper midwest + PA towrds Kerry in 2004, and they largely voted Democrat because of their fustration with free trade, but on cultural issues, they are conservatives. For blacks, they are so entrenched into Democratic politics that I seriously doubt they will vote less than 85% Democratic for another generation unless there is a 2nd great depression that can be blamed on Democrats.
But the way I figure it, should a Lou Dobbs style canidate emerge in 2008 with proper funding, that runs on a anti immigrationa and anti free trade(anti globalist) platform, it will play havoc all over the political spectrum.
This poster believes there are far more middle Americans who, after watching the May Day Marchers, are silently fuming at the cojones of illegal aliens protesting and angrily demanding citizenship, but who are by nature mild mannered, worried about being called "racists", who do not speak up - about their deeply held frustration.
Than there are Latinos who will change a GOP vote to a Democrat vote, for securing our borders.
The GOP appeasement wing, doesn't even notice they're out there. Tens of millions of frustrated, and increasingly alienated conservative Americans.
They are the November risk for the GOP. Not illegals who cannot even vote.
Pretending otherwise, is a huge mistake. A mistake which many in the GOP seem determined beyond all logic, to make.
The precipice looms. Bush is at the helm. (queue the dramatic soundtrack)
What will happen?.......
It depends how far back they go, at least in my first hand experience in California. Those of Mexican descent in CA whose ancestry go back 3-4+ generations are more of less similar to white ethnics, and in fact, intermarriage between this group and non hispanic whites is probably at least 50%. This group also is fustrated bvy illegals because it gives them a bad name, but the catch is, this group in California at this point probably make up less than 30% of potential hispanic voters in California. I think this would be true in Texas and Colorado as well.
Also my gut tells me those who have immigrated in the last 25 years and have become citizens came after anti assimilation forces took hold in the instituions such as churches and schools that helped immigrants assimilate in the past, and think of themselves more as their ethnic group still rather than Americans, I know recent immigrants who replaced working class white voters who left California in droves in the 90s is what pulled CA to the left.
well, let's hold on - nothing has passed yet.
but what I am saying is (hypothetically) - suppose there is a segment of current hispanic americans, who voted republican, who will switch to the Dems if the republican party stands for border enforcement and no amnesty - where are we going to go to "replace" those votes?
from the May 19, 2006 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0519/p09s02-cods.html
Bush may be losing his base
Conservatives are openly dissenting from policies of Republican leadership.
By Daniel Schorr
WASHINGTON - The term "base" is not in William Safire's political dictionary, but he tells me it will be included in the next edition. "Base" refers to that solid core of political supporters who will stick with you through electoral thick and thin as long as you are perceived as advancing their principles. Most often, the term is applied to religious conservatives.
Something seems to have gone off the rails between President Bush and his base, judging by a recent Gallup poll that shows his support among conservatives down from a long-standing 80 percent to a current 50 percent.
Religious conservatives have found the administration and Congress falling short on issues such as same-sex marriage, obscenity, and abortion. They have expressed disappointment that the president has not been more active in seeking a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.
The issue of the week is immigration. In what he called a compromise proposal in his television speech on Monday night, the president sought to allay the criticism of conservatives by proposing to deploy 6,000 National Guard troops along the Mexican border.
There may be less there than meets the eye. The Guard troops will be mainly in support roles. The arrangement may not last more than a year. And the president, who also has a business base, felt compelled to propose a "guest-worker" (not amnesty, repeat, not amnesty) program.
At the same time, the administration was trying to shift attention to consensus Republican issues such as tax cuts and judicial nominations. But, the dissension within Republican ranks was evident. The $105 billion war-spending bill, passed by the Senate, was called "dead on arrival" by House speaker Dennis Hastert. When Senate majority leader Bill Frist called Gen. Michael Hayden the "ideal man" for CIA Director, Speaker Hastert announced his opposition to having a military man in the job.
Influential conservatives have begun speaking openly of their reservations about the Republican leadership. Dr. James Dobson, head of Focus on the Family, has said that he might turn critic of the administration unless it does more to deliver on conservative goals.
At this point, the thunder from the right may be in the nature of admonition. But I can recall a time when evangelicals shunned the ballot box. If that were to happen again, it would change the face of American politics.
Believe me as a Puerto Rican, how we are viewed and how we view other Hispanics would surprise you, the amount of dislike, envy, superiority complex, and other factors would astound you, we are not of a like mind, trust me.
America is the Land of Plenty, it will always be seen as defended by the Republicans against those rushing toward the goodies even while Bush is filling the basket.
Hear, hear! Since he has refused to enforce the laws of our Nation and after voting for him twice, I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that Bush should be impeached and tried for treason.
Very well stated.
Casting the ballots others won't.
And if the amnesty plans goes ahead in 10 years the Hispanics will be more than 20% of vote. Republicans will go into oblivion, possible never to recover (the third party might replace them).
Or if the Hispanic influx changes the political culture in USA the Mexican model of one-party oligarchical state might prevail.
"Do they think it fiscally responsible to admit 30 million folks
from a country with one of the lowest compliance rates in paying taxes
of civilized countries?"
The lowest earning 50% of American citizens pay virtually no Federal income tax..about 2%.
Virtually all of the illegal aliens earn an amount that puts them in the lower 50%.
"Legalized" illegal aliens will pay no Federal income tax.
Bush is just a part of the problem. The real problem is the fact the GOP is far too dependent on big and small business alike for donations, and this has given us RINOs such as Sen Grahm R-SC and of course McCain.
Latinos divided on immigration issue
Contrary to scenes of hundreds of thousands of united Latinos marching across the country in support of immigration reform, a sizable number of the ethnic group opposes the marches and strongly objects to illegal immigration.
"That's the objective of the marches -- to give the impression that all Latinos are for allowing the illegals to become citizens," said Phoenix resident Lionel De La Rosa. "Well, I'm not."
The 71-year-old Texas native and Vietnam veteran said he favors punitive measures more in line with the immigration bill passed by the U.S. House in December that would have made it a felony to be in the United States illegally.
"I'm for that 100 percent," he said. "As far as my Latino friends are concerned, they all agree on this."
A 2005 survey by the Pew Hispanic Center found that Latinos in general have favorable attitudes toward immigrants and immigration.
But when it comes to illegal immigration, significant numbers have negative views of illegal immigrants.
The survey found those feelings are strongest among middle-class and middle-age U.S.-born Latinos.
And though 68 percent of Latinos said they believe illegal immigrants help the economy by providing low-cost labor, nearly a quarter felt illegal immigrants hurt the economy by driving down wages.
U.S.-born Latinos looked even less favorably toward illegal immigrants than foreign-born Latinos.
More than a third of U.S.-born Latinos said illegal immigrants hurt the economy, compared with just 15 percent of foreign-born Latinos.
Copyright 2006 Associated Press April 10, 2006
Hispanics are just like all of us. They want the law fgollowed. If the GOP won't make people follow the law they will vote for people who will.
Kyle Pederson Undecided Caucasian 43 32 25 Hispanic 33 30 37 Other 24 49 27
Forty percent of an increasingly mestizo, welfare-dependent and racially conscious Hispanic minority is an absurd fantasy.
It is just stunning how many experts on Hispanics we have on this site. This place could staff a university.
The most cogent comment I've heard recently. How about sixty percent of the "non-voting" lower middle-class and poor whites and blacks whose wages are going nowhere, and job opportunities are shrinking, because of illegal immigration. Maybe politicians like John Kyl should start campaigning for their vote.
Its not true that only illegals condone other illegals.It IS true that many American citizen Latinos are not really thrilled by the huge illegal influx but many see it as a racial solidarity issue-supporting their"hermanos y hermanas"in the struggle.
When Latinos see that the vast majority of people in the Minutemen and SOS are gringos,they almost viscerally lean to the La Raza group as a reaction.
Not saying that that tendency is good or healthy,just saying it is my observation from what I see everyday here in California.
Baloney. GOP GAINS---get it?---GAINS a net of at least one seat in the Senate and one to five in the House.
You have to work from reality and what you "want" to have happen. I'm in OH, where DeWine voted for the amnesty, and he defeated the conservatives 75%-25% in the primary and WILL win the general (he's supposedly one of the 'vulnerable'). Don't believe it. I've looked at the races. GOP GAINS one seat in the senate---possibly as many as two---and one to five seats in the House.
Hispanics for the most part don't vote.
They are actually conservative in values, so it ends up being a matter of education for the R party.
PS, when has the press before and election ever NOT said the Republicans were heading toward a disaster?
DeWine is either even or even down in the polls depending on what poll one sees. As for gains in the senate and house, uhm, what seats will the GOP pick up? I am in OH as well now, and many are up in arms about amnesty as well.