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Bush Losing Hispanics? (GOP ship of state becoming the Titanic?)
The American Thinker ^ | May 21, 2006 | Richard Baehr

Posted on 05/21/2006 12:41:14 PM PDT by quidnunc

So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster. Each week more House seats once considered safe (60-65% for Bush in 04) are now on the endangered list for incumbent GOP congressmen. The list is probably over 50 at this point,and may grow some more. 

More GOP senators are now in trouble. Add Jon Kyl of Arizoan to the list. He is now but 7 points ahead of a very wealthy competitor (last three polls showed him up 29, then 15, now 7). Seven GOP Senate seats are at risk and 3 Demcratic seats (maybe 4 if Mfume wins Democratic primary in Maryland).

Bush tried to thread the needle on immigration — appeal to both conservatives and Hispanics — and failed. He needed to get this bill through before passions were ignited, but his political weakness prevented that.

Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.

The demonstrations also hardened attitudes on the  right. If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades, and the result will be similar to what happened in Califronia  after Pete Wilson’s immigration referendums (a 20% GOP voting share of Hispanics).

That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOP’s dream of being a majority party this year.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 109th; 1wasteoftimepost; actionnottalk; allbitching; allcluelessbigots; allnonsense; botsdownwiththeship; completelosers; dosomething; gop; hispandering; hispanicrepublicans; hispanicvote; immigrationreform; jorge42; moreliars; novemberslaughter; savagemorons; stopcrimmigrationnow; whine; whiningubushbots
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1 posted on 05/21/2006 12:41:15 PM PDT by quidnunc
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To: quidnunc

Tell that to Mayor 'there's no way he can win' Nagin.

Fake Polls are for morons too lazy to think.


2 posted on 05/21/2006 12:43:29 PM PDT by new yorker 77 (FAKE POLLS DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO REAL VOTERS!)
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To: quidnunc

WaPo probably polled their janitorial staff...

Yes, not all janitors are hispanic, but liberals can't tell the difference between immigrants.

(To a liberal, all people of color look alike.)


3 posted on 05/21/2006 12:44:26 PM PDT by coconutt2000 (NO MORE PEACE FOR OIL!!! DOWN WITH TYRANTS, TERRORISTS, AND TIMIDCRATS!!!! (3-T's For World Peace))
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To: quidnunc


http://dontspeakforme.org/


4 posted on 05/21/2006 12:45:46 PM PDT by Rick_Michael (Look at profile for current ways to deal with illegals immigration)
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To: quidnunc

Does the GOP establishment honestly believe that by giving 30 million Hispanics (and their tens of millions of relatives) amenesty they have a chance in hell of securing even a small fraction of their vote? This amnesty would be an electoral disaster beyond their worst nightmares.


5 posted on 05/21/2006 12:46:09 PM PDT by Mr. Mojo
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To: quidnunc

Brought to you by cheap labor "conservatives" who have not really enforced immigration laws since the 1990 immigration "reform" act that Bush 41 signed. If this trend is maintained, sadly many good Republicans will be taken down.


6 posted on 05/21/2006 12:46:11 PM PDT by RFT1
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To: quidnunc

this is the "elephant in the room" on this immigration issue. where are legal Hispanic Americans on this issue? I think its tough to read.

if the only way to get votes of legal Hispanic Americans - is too allow 100 million new Hispanic ummigrants over the next 20 years, via amnesty and family "unification" - this country is in serious trouble.


7 posted on 05/21/2006 12:46:51 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: new yorker 77

Leftwing writers at the Washington Post:

Writing the paper Americans won't read.


8 posted on 05/21/2006 12:48:10 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (Boycott Communist Citgo!)
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To: Mr. Mojo

The establishment is represented by the likes of Fred Barnes and his ilk, who live mostly in the Northeast Corridor, plus a good sized contingent that live in California and Texas exurbs/gated communities that are far removed from reality. I am sick of the sellout of America for 30 peices of silver.


9 posted on 05/21/2006 12:49:13 PM PDT by RFT1
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To: quidnunc

The GOP isn't smart enough to figure out that it is signing it's own death warrant by giving these illegal aliens amnesty. They will NEVER vote republican. Every one of these RINO senators will be targeted for defeat. Rush cannot say it often enough....when we run on conservative principles, we win every time.


10 posted on 05/21/2006 12:50:35 PM PDT by Buffettfan (VIVA LA MIGRA! - LONG LIVE THE MINUTEMEN!)
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To: Mr. Mojo

they are between a rock and a hard place (not that I favor the amnesty mind you).

while its true that alot of white and african american Democrats do not favor amnesty, or the kinds of new immigrant numbers this bill would allow in - are those blocks willing to change their votes and go republican over this issue?

The Dems are clearly betting that their current base, will not switch parties over amnesty and new mass immigration.

Which side is right?


11 posted on 05/21/2006 12:50:55 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: Buffettfan

its not so much a concern over how the newly minted immigrants would vote - the issue is more, how will current hispanic american citizens vote on this issue?

I haven't seen any good polls on that.


12 posted on 05/21/2006 12:53:00 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: oceanview

Even if these new immigrants had a fully westeren background, just back their economic status alone, most will make less than $25K a year, will see them vote Democratic by a 2-1 margin when they vote for politicians that will give them all sorts of benifits, as what has happened to California. But with non Westeren and often Marxist backgrounds, even immigrants that are far up on the economic ladder, like the H-1B visa holders that become citizens vote for Democrats by a 2-1 or even a 3-1 margin.

I have mentioned this before, but it bears repeating, do business owners and managers who have been behind this mess since the early 80s lack the critical thinking skills to see that this will produce a national political enviroment that will be far worse than the carter years were in terms of the govrenmnet being anti business?


13 posted on 05/21/2006 12:55:02 PM PDT by RFT1
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To: quidnunc

Am I the only one to think it is wrong for writers such as this to continue to lump all Hispanics together in the same voting bloc?

The only Hispanics I can tell that are in favor of kowtowing to the illegals are the illegals that are already here!


14 posted on 05/21/2006 12:55:15 PM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Why do the AFL-CIO and UFW want illegal aliens?)
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To: oceanview

Legal hispanic here, as far as I am concerned the most pressing issue right now is our loss of immigration control, I strongly support fining all businessed that hire illegal aliens and militarizing our borders if need be.


15 posted on 05/21/2006 12:55:40 PM PDT by pennboricua
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To: quidnunc
Okay, Dick. I guess Bush and the others should just ignore that knuckle draggin' conservative base and placate the Hispanics (all of whom support illegal immigration?). That seems like a winning strategy to me.
16 posted on 05/21/2006 12:56:01 PM PDT by isrul
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To: RFT1
this left wing propaganda is a set up by left wing media to insure dnc control for the next 100 years.
scare the rhinos into allowing 60million uneducated
unskilled types which will vote the dem back into power.
sadly , idiots like hagel, martinez, and bush have fallen for the scam. these rhinos are so out of touch and worried about what wash post , NY times , and cbs.. leftist will say versus the American public. these pol and experts are truely out of touch and stupid .
17 posted on 05/21/2006 12:56:02 PM PDT by BurtSB
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To: RFT1

I certainly agree with you about the NEW immigrants future voting patterns.

but what about current hispanic american citizens, which way are they going over this issue?


18 posted on 05/21/2006 12:56:36 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: pennboricua

its a hard issue to read. myself, being in NY, most of my latino neighbors and co-workers are from cuba, puerto rico, dominican republic, etc. and they agree with your sentiment. but not being in the southwest where there is more of a mexican/central american demographic, is the opinion different in that block?


19 posted on 05/21/2006 1:00:34 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: oceanview
The Dems are clearly betting that their current base, will not switch parties over amnesty and new mass immigration.

It's a safe bet. Traditional Dem voters will convince themselves that without the pressure their party put on the GOP this amnesty - a huge addition their precious multicultural soup - wouldn't have happened.

Also, a large chunk of these new citizens are natural Democrats -- 29% of all illegal aliens are on welfare. You think their welfare state mentality will vanish after they become citizens? Not a chance. They know full well the Dems are the party of handouts.

20 posted on 05/21/2006 1:01:34 PM PDT by Mr. Mojo
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To: oceanview

The non liberal white Democratic voters are in the most danager of bolting the Democratic party, should a viable 3rd party alternative emerge in 2008. While this contingent has been shrinking for decades, they still tilted the upper midwest + PA towrds Kerry in 2004, and they largely voted Democrat because of their fustration with free trade, but on cultural issues, they are conservatives. For blacks, they are so entrenched into Democratic politics that I seriously doubt they will vote less than 85% Democratic for another generation unless there is a 2nd great depression that can be blamed on Democrats.

But the way I figure it, should a Lou Dobbs style canidate emerge in 2008 with proper funding, that runs on a anti immigrationa and anti free trade(anti globalist) platform, it will play havoc all over the political spectrum.


21 posted on 05/21/2006 1:02:31 PM PDT by RFT1
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To: oceanview
"they are between a rock and a hard place (not that I favor the amnesty mind you).

while its true that alot of white and african american Democrats do not favor amnesty, or the kinds of new immigrant numbers this bill would allow in - are those blocks willing to change their votes and go republican over this issue?

The Dems are clearly betting that their current base, will not switch parties over amnesty and new mass immigration.

Which side is right?"




We (Republicans) had the majority. We didn't need Democrats to change sides we only needed to retain the majority who elected a Republican House, Senate and President. The idiots in Washington have squandered the majority we had by worrying more about appeasing Ted Kennedy than they did about their conservative base. With the millions of new illegal alien Democrats it will no longer make any difference. The Republicans have slit their own throat.
22 posted on 05/21/2006 1:07:38 PM PDT by Prokopton
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To: oceanview

This poster believes there are far more middle Americans who, after watching the May Day Marchers, are silently fuming at the cojones of illegal aliens protesting and angrily demanding citizenship, but who are by nature mild mannered, worried about being called "racists", who do not speak up - about their deeply held frustration.

Than there are Latinos who will change a GOP vote to a Democrat vote, for securing our borders.

The GOP appeasement wing, doesn't even notice they're out there. Tens of millions of frustrated, and increasingly alienated conservative Americans.

They are the November risk for the GOP. Not illegals who cannot even vote.

Pretending otherwise, is a huge mistake. A mistake which many in the GOP seem determined beyond all logic, to make.

The precipice looms. Bush is at the helm. (queue the dramatic soundtrack)

What will happen?.......


23 posted on 05/21/2006 1:07:47 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (Boycott Communist Citgo!)
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To: oceanview

It depends how far back they go, at least in my first hand experience in California. Those of Mexican descent in CA whose ancestry go back 3-4+ generations are more of less similar to white ethnics, and in fact, intermarriage between this group and non hispanic whites is probably at least 50%. This group also is fustrated bvy illegals because it gives them a bad name, but the catch is, this group in California at this point probably make up less than 30% of potential hispanic voters in California. I think this would be true in Texas and Colorado as well.

Also my gut tells me those who have immigrated in the last 25 years and have become citizens came after anti assimilation forces took hold in the instituions such as churches and schools that helped immigrants assimilate in the past, and think of themselves more as their ethnic group still rather than Americans, I know recent immigrants who replaced working class white voters who left California in droves in the 90s is what pulled CA to the left.


24 posted on 05/21/2006 1:09:21 PM PDT by RFT1
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Comment #25 Removed by Moderator

To: Prokopton

well, let's hold on - nothing has passed yet.

but what I am saying is (hypothetically) - suppose there is a segment of current hispanic americans, who voted republican, who will switch to the Dems if the republican party stands for border enforcement and no amnesty - where are we going to go to "replace" those votes?


26 posted on 05/21/2006 1:12:18 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: quidnunc

from the May 19, 2006 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0519/p09s02-cods.html

Bush may be losing his base
Conservatives are openly dissenting from policies of Republican leadership.

By Daniel Schorr

WASHINGTON - The term "base" is not in William Safire's political dictionary, but he tells me it will be included in the next edition. "Base" refers to that solid core of political supporters who will stick with you through electoral thick and thin as long as you are perceived as advancing their principles. Most often, the term is applied to religious conservatives.

Something seems to have gone off the rails between President Bush and his base, judging by a recent Gallup poll that shows his support among conservatives down from a long-standing 80 percent to a current 50 percent.

Religious conservatives have found the administration and Congress falling short on issues such as same-sex marriage, obscenity, and abortion. They have expressed disappointment that the president has not been more active in seeking a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

The issue of the week is immigration. In what he called a compromise proposal in his television speech on Monday night, the president sought to allay the criticism of conservatives by proposing to deploy 6,000 National Guard troops along the Mexican border.

There may be less there than meets the eye. The Guard troops will be mainly in support roles. The arrangement may not last more than a year. And the president, who also has a business base, felt compelled to propose a "guest-worker" (not amnesty, repeat, not amnesty) program.

At the same time, the administration was trying to shift attention to consensus Republican issues such as tax cuts and judicial nominations. But, the dissension within Republican ranks was evident. The $105 billion war-spending bill, passed by the Senate, was called "dead on arrival" by House speaker Dennis Hastert. When Senate majority leader Bill Frist called Gen. Michael Hayden the "ideal man" for CIA Director, Speaker Hastert announced his opposition to having a military man in the job.

Influential conservatives have begun speaking openly of their reservations about the Republican leadership. Dr. James Dobson, head of Focus on the Family, has said that he might turn critic of the administration unless it does more to deliver on conservative goals.

At this point, the thunder from the right may be in the nature of admonition. But I can recall a time when evangelicals shunned the ballot box. If that were to happen again, it would change the face of American politics.


27 posted on 05/21/2006 1:12:53 PM PDT by KeyLargo
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To: oceanview

Believe me as a Puerto Rican, how we are viewed and how we view other Hispanics would surprise you, the amount of dislike, envy, superiority complex, and other factors would astound you, we are not of a like mind, trust me.


28 posted on 05/21/2006 1:18:25 PM PDT by pennboricua
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To: oceanview
"but what I am saying is (hypothetically) - suppose there is a segment of current hispanic americans, who voted republican, who will switch to the Dems if the republican party stands for border enforcement and no amnesty - where are we going to go to "replace" those votes?"

The "hypothetical" is only useful as a straw man. There is nothing to support the hypothetical. The polls seem to show that legal immigrants are against amnesty for illegal aliens in at least as great a percentage as votes Republican.

Rather than worry about hypotheticals, the Republican leadership should worry about the non-hypothetical fact that most Republicans, and most U.S. citizens, are against their pathetic amnesty programs. If you're in the majority, all you have to do is listen to those who got you there to win. Turn against them at your own peril.
29 posted on 05/21/2006 1:31:53 PM PDT by Prokopton
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To: quidnunc

America is the Land of Plenty, it will always be seen as defended by the Republicans against those rushing toward the goodies even while Bush is filling the basket.


30 posted on 05/21/2006 1:32:05 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: RFT1

Hear, hear! Since he has refused to enforce the laws of our Nation and after voting for him twice, I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that Bush should be impeached and tried for treason.


31 posted on 05/21/2006 1:36:14 PM PDT by mathprof2
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To: sss33

Very well stated.


32 posted on 05/21/2006 1:37:29 PM PDT by mathprof2
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To: Mr. Mojo
Does the GOP establishment honestly believe that by giving 30 million
Hispanics (and their tens of millions of relatives) amenesty they have
a chance in hell of securing even a small fraction of their vote?
This amnesty would be an electoral disaster beyond their worst nightmares.


Do they think it fiscally responsible to admit 30 million folks
from a country with one of the lowest compliance rates in paying taxes
of civilized countries?

Since I only heard it once (on FOX? CNN?), I suspect the reported
compliance rate of ELEVEN PERCENT is probably true.
And, if you commit identity theft...what's adding on a little tax fraud?
33 posted on 05/21/2006 1:39:05 PM PDT by VOA
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To: quidnunc

34 posted on 05/21/2006 1:41:23 PM PDT by heights
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To: quidnunc

Casting the ballots others won't.


35 posted on 05/21/2006 1:43:15 PM PDT by ordinaryguy
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To: quidnunc
That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOP’s dream of being a majority party this year.

And if the amnesty plans goes ahead in 10 years the Hispanics will be more than 20% of vote. Republicans will go into oblivion, possible never to recover (the third party might replace them).

Or if the Hispanic influx changes the political culture in USA the Mexican model of one-party oligarchical state might prevail.

36 posted on 05/21/2006 1:43:33 PM PDT by A. Pole (Solzhenitsyn:"Live Not By Lies" www.columbia.edu/cu/augustine/ arch/solzhenitsyn/livenotbylies.html)
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To: VOA

"Do they think it fiscally responsible to admit 30 million folks
from a country with one of the lowest compliance rates in paying taxes
of civilized countries?"



The lowest earning 50% of American citizens pay virtually no Federal income tax..about 2%.

Virtually all of the illegal aliens earn an amount that puts them in the lower 50%.

"Legalized" illegal aliens will pay no Federal income tax.


37 posted on 05/21/2006 1:44:58 PM PDT by Prokopton
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To: mathprof2

Bush is just a part of the problem. The real problem is the fact the GOP is far too dependent on big and small business alike for donations, and this has given us RINOs such as Sen Grahm R-SC and of course McCain.


38 posted on 05/21/2006 1:49:52 PM PDT by RFT1
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To: RFT1
The real problem is the fact the GOP is far too dependent on big
and small business alike for donations


Given their current deafness, I can't but think the RNC isn't getting
plenty of donations from some private contractors: "coyotes"
drug smugglers, etc...
39 posted on 05/21/2006 1:52:05 PM PDT by VOA
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To: quidnunc

Latinos divided on immigration issue

Contrary to scenes of hundreds of thousands of united Latinos marching across the country in support of immigration reform, a sizable number of the ethnic group opposes the marches and strongly objects to illegal immigration.
"That's the objective of the marches -- to give the impression that all Latinos are for allowing the illegals to become citizens," said Phoenix resident Lionel De La Rosa. "Well, I'm not."
The 71-year-old Texas native and Vietnam veteran said he favors punitive measures more in line with the immigration bill passed by the U.S. House in December that would have made it a felony to be in the United States illegally.
"I'm for that 100 percent," he said. "As far as my Latino friends are concerned, they all agree on this."
A 2005 survey by the Pew Hispanic Center found that Latinos in general have favorable attitudes toward immigrants and immigration.
But when it comes to illegal immigration, significant numbers have negative views of illegal immigrants.
The survey found those feelings are strongest among middle-class and middle-age U.S.-born Latinos.
And though 68 percent of Latinos said they believe illegal immigrants help the economy by providing low-cost labor, nearly a quarter felt illegal immigrants hurt the economy by driving down wages.
U.S.-born Latinos looked even less favorably toward illegal immigrants than foreign-born Latinos.
More than a third of U.S.-born Latinos said illegal immigrants hurt the economy, compared with just 15 percent of foreign-born Latinos.
Copyright 2006 Associated Press April 10, 2006
Hispanics are just like all of us. They want the law fgollowed. If the GOP won't make people follow the law they will vote for people who will.


40 posted on 05/21/2006 2:01:51 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (John Spencer: Fighting to save America from Hillary Clinton..)
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To: quidnunc
My instincts are pretty about about sniffing out BS. Guess what? Kyle is leading among Hispanics in Arizona! Fancy that. The Arizona polls has too many undecideds to be of much use anyway.

         Kyle Pederson  Undecided
Caucasian 43    32        25 
Hispanic  33    30        37 
Other     24    49        27 


41 posted on 05/21/2006 2:01:55 PM PDT by Torie
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To: quidnunc
If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades

Forty percent of an increasingly mestizo, welfare-dependent and racially conscious Hispanic minority is an absurd fantasy.

42 posted on 05/21/2006 2:04:14 PM PDT by Jim Noble (And you know what I'm talkin' 'bout!)
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To: Jim Noble
Forty percent of an increasingly mestizo, welfare-dependent and racially conscious Hispanic minority is an absurd fantasy.

It is just stunning how many experts on Hispanics we have on this site. This place could staff a university.

43 posted on 05/21/2006 2:06:56 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Jim Noble
Forty percent of an increasingly mestizo, welfare-dependent and racially conscious Hispanic minority is an absurd fantasy.

The most cogent comment I've heard recently. How about sixty percent of the "non-voting" lower middle-class and poor whites and blacks whose wages are going nowhere, and job opportunities are shrinking, because of illegal immigration. Maybe politicians like John Kyl should start campaigning for their vote.

44 posted on 05/21/2006 2:12:23 PM PDT by pawdoggie
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To: VeniVidiVici

Its not true that only illegals condone other illegals.It IS true that many American citizen Latinos are not really thrilled by the huge illegal influx but many see it as a racial solidarity issue-supporting their"hermanos y hermanas"in the struggle.
When Latinos see that the vast majority of people in the Minutemen and SOS are gringos,they almost viscerally lean to the La Raza group as a reaction.
Not saying that that tendency is good or healthy,just saying it is my observation from what I see everyday here in California.


45 posted on 05/21/2006 2:24:10 PM PDT by Riverman94610
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To: quidnunc

Baloney. GOP GAINS---get it?---GAINS a net of at least one seat in the Senate and one to five in the House.


46 posted on 05/21/2006 2:32:00 PM PDT by LS
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To: RFT1

You have to work from reality and what you "want" to have happen. I'm in OH, where DeWine voted for the amnesty, and he defeated the conservatives 75%-25% in the primary and WILL win the general (he's supposedly one of the 'vulnerable'). Don't believe it. I've looked at the races. GOP GAINS one seat in the senate---possibly as many as two---and one to five seats in the House.


47 posted on 05/21/2006 2:33:42 PM PDT by LS
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To: quidnunc

Hispanics for the most part don't vote.

They are actually conservative in values, so it ends up being a matter of education for the R party.


48 posted on 05/21/2006 2:34:28 PM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: quidnunc

PS, when has the press before and election ever NOT said the Republicans were heading toward a disaster?


49 posted on 05/21/2006 2:35:39 PM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: LS

DeWine is either even or even down in the polls depending on what poll one sees. As for gains in the senate and house, uhm, what seats will the GOP pick up? I am in OH as well now, and many are up in arms about amnesty as well.


50 posted on 05/21/2006 2:56:36 PM PDT by RFT1
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