Skip to comments.Gold-Oil Ratio Spiralling Downward (630/74)
Posted on 07/09/2006 6:30:32 PM PDT by DebtAndDelusion
With oil now hitting record highs and gold well off mid-May levels, the gold-oil ratio continues to shrink. Today, one ounce of gold only buys 8.57 barrels of oil - a ratio of 0.11.
Oil hit a fresh record high of $75.78 a barrel today, boosted by strong demand in the United States and global tension ranging from Iran's nuclear work to North Korea's missile tests.
Prices drew early support from a U.S. government report yesterday showing gasoline demand grew by 1.4% in the last four weeks from a year ago, with summer driving months still head. But rebel attacks in Nigeria, the world's eighth-largest oil exporter, have shut almost a quarter of the country's output and the Iranian nuclear row has raised fears of supply cuts from the worlds fourth largest oil exporter.
Oil is up 23% this year on these geopolitical tensions and a flood of investment fund money into commodities, and many analysts are saying high oil is hear to stay. It has rallied from below $20 at the start of 2002.
In the meantime, this year gold soared to a high of $730 per ounce on May 12th, its highest in 26 years. But just as quickly as it sprinted to record highs, the yellow metal plummeted by $190/oz to a low of $542/oz just four weeks later.
Despite gold regaining some of its luster of late, the gold-oil ratio continues to slide. In May, using the average price of gold and oil for the month, the ratio was 9.57 barrels per gold ounce; the ratio averaged 8.4 bbl/oz in June. So far in 2006, the average gold-oil ratio is 8.3 bbl/oz or around 0.11 gold ounces per barrel of oil
The long-term ratio has averaged about 17 bbl/oz since 1970. So far in 2006, the average ratio has been 8.7 bbl/oz.
Using the 36-year ratio, the suggested price for gold is $1,258/oz with oil at $37/bbl. Using the 2006 average, gold comes to $644/oz with oil at $72.9/oz - pretty close to todays price differential.
Crude for August delivery climbed as high as $75.55 a barrel, to a set a record on the New York Mercantile Exchange for a front-month contract. It then pulled back to a close at $74.09, down $1.05.
Today, gold closed down $1.50 for the day at $634.80/oz on NYMEX. However, it gained 3.1% overall this week on tensions in North Korea and 4.8% last week on buzz that the Feds interest rate hike campaign is over.
We can print as many dollars as we need while they are running out of oil. Not that they don't know this a lot better than us...
The problem is the point where they won't take dollars anymore and demand gold for crude. Then we have a situation. Anyway, the gold-oil ratio is something I don't see discussed too often on this forum. In theory this revaluing of the ratio might be a price signal confirming oil shortages in the near future. As we get ready to go volatile in the coming weeks it may help in understanding the true price structure dynamic.
What "coming financial meltdown"?
The "meltdown" where everyone stops paying their mortgage at the same time, causing the banks to all fold simultaneously ...
Both commodities are market driven.
Let me say that again - MARKET DRIVEN.
Comparing the price of gold to the price of oil is like comparing the price of cantaloupe melons to ice cream. NOT CORRELATED.
Gold still looks dirt cheap at 630. That means for the average American to own an ounce of gold they will be spending about 640+ for a Krugerrand or 660 for an American eagle if they know how to negotiate. A little more if they are first time buyers and don't know how to haggle like they are in a Teheran bazaar.
You asked "What coming financial meltdown?" and that is a fair question. Some of the nephew's colleagues at the University like to have that discussion and he tells me after several beers half of them agree it will be a hyper-inflationary tsunami while the other half swear it will be a deflationary collapse. The one thing they all agree upon is that its coming.
Those in charge have created too much money -- the asset bubble of all asset bubbles. Except of course "dollars" are not assets (unlike gold) but merely debt instruments. I guess in simple terms, there is so much debt out there that there will never be enough money created to service it at some point -- let alone pay it back. Massive systemic-default is the liquidity crisis magnitudes beyond the central banks' ability to "soak up excess liquidity."
Debt trap dynamics reach their tipping point and then accelerate. When it happens it will move around the world with lightning speed.
Gold has been man's only protection from the central bankers since John Law rode into France. The day the average Joe learns what has been going on he is going to be some kind of upset. If he has bought gold at 450, 630 or even a thousand he will survive. If not he just may go hungry because at some point those Krugerrands and American eagles will get scarce at any price in terms of paper "dollars"
Of course you will always be able to exchange Morgans or Peace dollars for gold. But that's another story for another time. Believe it or not there was a time in this country when a dollar was solid and meant something.
There's a reason those darn Asians are buying all the gold...
It held within a few pennies of 1:1 from the time I was in high school till the time I stopped eating Big Macs, which was at least 20 years later.
Unfortunately, I don't know what a Big Mac goes for these days. Well, I withdraw the word unfortunately.
Actually, this is a very good indicator. The Oil/Gold ratio has gone below 10 three times in the past 30 years. And gold has gone up an average of 15.5% each time the following year. Now, I am not saying this is a sure bet. However, the probability of Gold going up is very high. In so many words, it is a low risk investing idea.
In the long run, everyone's dead, too. (I know, I know; I really shouldn't be quoting Keynes on an economics thread.)
" It held within a few pennies of 1:1 from the time I was in high school till the time I stopped eating Big Macs, which was at least 20 years later.
Unfortunately, I don't know what a Big Mac goes for these days. Well, I withdraw the word unfortunately."
Well, since Big Macs ARE a petroleum product, this must be some Soros driven devaluation of the Mac caused by dumping the Euros he thought he would corner. Or something like that.
Rather than go on the gold standard for our currency maybe we should go on the oil standard.
Iran is already hording gold and proposing euros for oil. Iran was supposed to go live with their own oil market in March, but then it was pushed back to June or July.
I didn't read the link. But I do have a hunch about the crude oil market being, if not cornered, than certainly manipulated. It has something to do with the world's second largest exporter, who will soon be selling the energy company it stole to the public just when it's assets are at a nominal all time high. Oh, and they happen to be hosting the G8 meeting.
"Comparing the price of gold to the price of oil is like comparing the price of cantaloupe melons to ice cream. NOT CORRELATED."
Not really - all prices are correlated given no shifts in the supply and demand curves.
There is a big shift in the demand curve for oil because of all the saber rattling since 9/11.
It can't keep up forever.
So gold has gone down some? I think I'll buy some then.
btw, folks, at least in NYS, if you buy at least $1,000 in precious metals, you don't have to pay a tax, because it is considered an investment.
One can use a good putdown to the gold bugs by wishing them "profitable goldbuggery!"
I'm pickin up, what you're layin down!!! Ha Ha Ha!!!
I'll buy the "US demand" argument, but I've never bought into political effects on the price of oil unless the political concern was truly imminent.
Its equally possible oil is overvalued.
"In the meantime, this year gold soared to a high of $730 per ounce on May 12th, its highest in 26 years. But just as quickly as it sprinted to record highs, the yellow metal plummeted by $190/oz to a low of $542/oz just four weeks later."
This makes sense, as the markets first tested the new Fed chairman and he is responding via higher interest rates.
They are taking away the inflationary punch bowl.
As noted, oil is up on specific fears wrt supply and Iran. This is above and beyond the general commodity markets, which IMHO has just peaked for a while.
Oil will line up (ie fall) if and when the Iranian problem gets resolved and/or supply demand gets rebalanced.
JMHO. Warning: I expected oil to fall late last year. It did. then it rose to new heights. So I'm giving up the oil price prognostication business for now.
You probably know this but oil can't be used for this purpose because oil is a useful commodity, unlike Gold which has no useful purpose for the investors.
Gold just happens to be a metal which isn't too useful, but is considered nice-looking, is easy to shape, and has a "history" of being important. That, and it happens that it's discovery rate remarkably matched the economic expansion/population growth.
If someone finds a billion pounds of gold in a new mine somewhere tomorrow, all the "theories" of gold won't protect the holders from disaster.
Conversely, no matter how much gold there is, if some day the child yells "the emperor has no clothes", and people actually believe it, gold will go the way of the beanie baby.
In the meantime, expect to read stories like this, and hear arguments like this, with great regularity. After all, for gold to go up in value, you need to build up demand.
And somehow, even with all the asians "buying up all the gold", we still can purchase it for what is apparently a fire-sale price, according to the hype.
Meanwhile, I've been an adult for about 25 years now, and at no time in my life has gold been a good long-term investment. I could buy my gold class ring today for a FRACTION of what it would have cost me when I graduated, taking into account inflation.
On the other hand, if I had invested all my money in a large storage tank of gasoline, I could retire today.
Whenever I want comedy I'll go to the gold bug message boards. Maybe even Yahoo's Newmont mining message board.
It has and will continue to be the "rock, paper, scissors" economy. Gold beats paper...Oil beats gold...Armies and weapons beat oil and everything else. Those with the army have the paper which beats the gold and can otherwise take what it needs.
On a micro/individual level, those who can squirrel away food, medicine, fuel and have the land and means to store necessities and protect them from being "requisitioned" is how one plays the game of life. So if you live in a condo or apartment sharing floors, ceilings and electric amenities, then you've got trouble.
When your state gets hit with 14 hurricanes in 3 years one begins to think about such possibilities
Never go to bed without the important news:
Oh. I've already had mine, thank you. And no banks were harmed in the making of it.
"There's a reason those darn Asians are buying all the gold..."
And on the lighter side of the PTB, GS decreased their gold shorts on the TOCOM.
FWIW, DYODD, I'm buying..
Do you think the elites have hedged their "free trade" bets with substantial gold postilions? Physical gold? Trade deficits of 850 billion are what bring disrespect to the US dollar and will kill it's value. But if the elites own gold they don't care
That's way too simplistic. What will happen with oil exporters such as Iran, Russia, Venezuela is they will demand payment via a currency basket that will be one third US Dollar, one third gold, one third Euro. They will demand this payment from rich countries that will pay full price. For poor countries they will give some a discount and accept barter and raw materials in payment for oil. Their poor friends will get this deal. Other poor nations will not.
IOW if a poor Latino nation wants cheap Venezuelan crude then they have to ally themselves with Hugo Chavez foreign policy
I always thought that was ironic - paying taxes on a real loss but a nominal numbers gain upon resale.
"Dead wrong. Correlated, but weakly: "
Run some regressions, then show me the results.
The oil supply is backed by the US military which must retain overwhelming force.
When the price of oil goes up, the US govt can print more reserve dollars to satisfy world demand. So the US govt wants the price of oil to go up.
Gold is only a hedge, a minor irritation to the US govt who confiscated it in the 1930s.
If you value your gold, bury it.
"Tired of the roller coaster of investing in penny stocks. Invest in Gold, a bedrock of stability."
The gold/oil price ratio is purely incidental. They do not impinge on one another. The price of gold climbs and declines inversely with the value of the dollar and in occasional spikes of speculation. Oil climbs when the demand for barrels of it climbs faster than the number of barrels produced.
Dont forget to account for the shrinking big mac.
I remember when they were too big for a childs hands.
My God, it's full of... GOLD!
If you care to check out the link above you just might learn something about the astounding depth of your ignorance concerning gold. What you don't know would fill volumes.
Don't you realize that arguing with a gold bug is a waste of time?
I suppose if you are running a clean-room chip factory in your garage, gold is useful to you.
Gold prices are not running up because of a demand for gold by end-users, they are running up because people want to put coins in their safety deposit boxes in the hope that in a year someone else will want to pay them a lot more to put the coins in THEIR safety deposit boxes.
I don't imagine even the rabid pro-gold posters are going to argue that gold is a good investment because of it's real-world uses. But since I have trouble imagining how people end up being rabid pro-gold posters, I suppose I could be surprised.
Meanwhile, nobody is buying oil to lock it up in their bank so they can sell it later (well, the oil companies do that, and there is a fledgling oil-purchase exchange where people bought gas years ago which was stored for use at a low price later, but even that was so they could USE it later.
How many gold bugs are going to melt down their coins in a couple of years to make rings, or to finish up their communications satellite, or to gold-plate their own monster audio cables or replace all their old silver fillings?
The uses of gold would fit nicely in bullet form on a small-print 9x11 glossy. I'm certain a skilled writer could fit every useful piece of information about gold in a single book.
And being employed at a site that actually HAS cleanroom manufacturing of chips for multiple uses, your lack of knowledge of my knowledge, while not volume-filling, is not something to brag about.
Only said that to suggest that if you are looking to educate someone, it's better to present information in a positive way without including uninformed judgment that might make you look silly.
Arguing is never a waste of time, its fun.
You are the one who implied that gold has no practical uses.
unlike Gold which has no useful purpose for the investors.
As I explained, I buy gas because I want to make my car go, not to store it away to sell it later. Investors in soybeans, oranges, cattle, and many other commodities also expect that the commodity itself will end up being USED by someone, if not by themselves.
Gold investors are not expecting demand for the use of gold to rise, so they aren't buying it to use it themselves, OR to sell it to other people who will use it. They are buying in the hopes that someone else will pay them more, specifically so that new person can hold onto it and then sell it for more -- with no intent of ANYBODY ever using the gold.
Which makes Gold a lot more like beanie babies than oil.
The fact that gold has a lot of uses is a separate issue from why investors buy it. That at least is my assertion, and saying that gold has a lot of uses does not negate that assertion.
Which makes Gold a lot more like beanie babies than oil.
You are entitiled to your opinion, I see no resemblance between gold and beanie babies. Gold has many uses and does not corrode or waste away. Beanie babies have no use other than as toys and have no permanence.
It is conceivable to me that some other energy source could make oil lose most of its value but I don't foresee anything replacing gold, of course I don't know it all, do you see the possibility of anything replacing gold for all its current uses?