The Golitsyn Predictions

Mark Riebling ^ | 08-17-06 | Mark Riebling

[brain bleeds red]

Even if one rejects Golitsyn's overall thesis -- viz., that Gorbachev's changes comprised a long-term strategic deception -- one must still acknowledge that Golitsyn was the only analyst whose crystal ball was functioning during the key period of the late 20th century.

When the Soviet Empire collapsed in 1989, the CIA was chastised for failing to foresee the change. "For a generation, the Central Intelligence Agency told successive presidents everything they needed to know about the Soviet Union," said Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, "except that it was about to fall apart."

Sovietologists both inside and outside CIA were indeed baffled, for their traditional method of analysis had yielded virtually no clues as to what Gorbachev would do. When Mikhail Gorbachev took power in February 1985, after the death of Konstantin Chernenko, analysts like Roy Medvedev preoccupied themselves with trivial details in the Soviet press, and gained no larger view. "The black mourning frame printed around the second page where the deceased leader's picture was run] looked rather narrow," Medvedev observed. "It was still, however, a millimeter broader than the frames used for the second-page announcements of the death of senior Politburo members like Marshal Ustinov, who had died a few months previously." There was nothing in the measurement of picture frames to suggest liberalization in the USSR; therefore, no one suggested it.

CIA's leadership acknowledged that fell short in predicting Gorbachev's reforms, but could provide no real excuse. "Who would have thought that just five years ago we would stand where we are today?" Acting Director Robert Gates told Congress in late 1991. "Talk about humbling experiences." Gates could have said: Our reporting was poor because our Moscow network was rolled up, coincidentally or not, precisely as Gorbachev was coming into power. Gates did not say this, however. Instead, he suggested that "We're here to help you think through the problem rather than give you some kind of crystal ball prediction." This anti-prediction line was echoed by the Agency's deputy director, Robert Kerr, who told Congress: "Our business is to provide enough understanding of the issue ... to say here are some possible outcomes.... And I think that's the role of intelligence, not to predict outcomes in clear, neat ways. Because that's not doable."

Yet someone had predicted glasnost and perestroika, in detail, even before Gorbachev came to power. This person's analysis of events in the communist world had even been provided to the Agency on a regular basis.

In 1982, KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn had submitted a top-secret manuscript to CIA. In it, he foresaw that leadership of the USSR would by 1986 "or earlier" fall to "a younger man with a more liberal image," who would initiate "changes that would have been beyond the imagination of Marx or the practical reach of Lenin and unthinkable to Stalin."

The coming liberalization, Golitsyn said, "would be spectacular and impressive. Formal pronouncements might be made about a reduction in the Communist Party's role; its monopoly would be apparently curtailed.... The KGB would be reformed. Dissidents at home would be amnestied; those in exile abroad would be allowed to take up positions in the government; Sakharov might be included in some capacity in the government. Political dubs would be opened to nonmembers of the Communist Party. Leading dissidents might form one or more alternative political Censorship would be relaxed; controversial plays, films, and art would be published, performed, and exhibited."

Golitsyn provided an entire chapter of such predictions, containing 194 distinct auguries. Of these, 46 were not soon falsifiable (it was too early to tell, e.g., whether Russian economic ministries would be dissolved); another 9 predictions (e.g., of a prominent Yugoslavian role in East-Bloc liberalization) seemed clearly wrong. Yet of Golitsyn's falsifiable predictions, 139 out of 148 were fulfilled by the end of 1993 -- an accuracy rate of nearly 94 percent. Among events correctly foreseen: "the return to power of Dubcek and his associates" in Czechoslovakia; the reemergence of Solidarity" and the formation of a "coalition government" in Poland; a newly "independent" regime in Romania; "economic reforms" in the USSR; and a Soviet repudiation of the Afghanistan invasion. -Golitsyn even envisioned that, with the "easing of immigration controls" by East Germany, "pressure could well grow for the solution of the German problem [by] some form of confederation between East and West," with the result that "demolition of the Berlin Wall might even be contemplated."

Golitsyn received CIA's permission to publish his manuscript in book form, and did so in 1984. But at time his predictions were made, Sovietologists had little use for Golitsyn or his "new methodology for the study of the communist world." John C. Campbell, reviewing Golitsyn's book in Foreign Affairs, politely recommended that it "be taken with several grains of salt." Other critics complained that Golitsyn's analysis "strained credulity" and was "totally inaccurate," or became so exercised as to accuse him of being the "demented" proponent of "cosmic theories." The University of North Carolina's James R. Kuhlman declared that Golitsyn's new methodology would "not withstand rigorous examination. Oxford historian R.W. Johnson dismissed Golitsyn's views as "nonsense." British journalist Tom Mangold even went so far as to say, in 1990 -- well after Golitsyn's prescience had become clear -- that "As a crystal-ball gazer, Golitsyn has been unimpressive." Mangold reached this conclusion by listing six of Golitsyn's apparently incorrect predictions and ignoring the 139 correct ones.

Golitsyn's analysis was as little appreciated within CIA as it was in the outside world. "Unfortunate is the only term for this book," an Agency reader noted in an official 1985 review. A CIA analyst took Golitsyn to task for making "unsupported allegations without sufficient (or sometimes any) evidence," and for this reason would be "embarrassed to recommend the whole." Golitsyn's case, other words, was deductive: He had no "hard evidence," no transcript of a secret meeting in which Gorbachev said the would do all these things. Perhaps most fundamentally, as the philosopher William James once noted, "we tend to disbelieve all facts and theories for which we have no use." Who had any use, in the end, for Golitsyn's belief that the coming glasnost and perestroika would merely constitute the "final phase" of a long-term KGB strategy to "dominate the world"?

[brain bleeds red]

The Russians and the Chinese are not our friends.

www.thefinalphase.org

[Jet Jaguar]

Important post. Thanks.

[phs3]

ping for later

[tentmaker]

bookmark

[brain bleeds red]

Essentially what this post says is that the Russians and the Chinese STILL want to attack us. It says that the Russians realized they couldn't defeat us militarily and so decided to defeat us by trickery and deceit.

This involved us thinking the Cold War was over, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, their infiltration of our intelligence agencies, them feeding us disinformation, all culminating in their eventual attack.

There has never been clearer evidence of this fact. The question is, is it too late?

[freedomfiter2]

Golitsyn's analysis was as little appreciated within CIA as it was in the outside world.

The John Birch Society took him seriously.

[brain bleeds red]

I'm not sure what that means, but if Golitsyn was right, the Russians would obviously have their agents declaring him "unreliable", "inaccurate", whatever you can come up with. I just blogged about this.

[mkjessup]

A good article, bump for later reading, thanks! :)

[thestob]

bookmark

[iThinkBig]

Essentially what this post says is that the Russians and the Chinese STILL want to attack us. It says that the "Russians realized they couldn't defeat us militarily and so decided to defeat us by trickery and deceit.

This involved us thinking the Cold War was over, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, their infiltration of our intelligence agencies, them feeding us disinformation, all culminating in their eventual attack.

There has never been clearer evidence of this fact. The question is, is it too late?"

A thought that sometimes keeps me up at night is what if they found a way to launch a nuclear attack but disarm our ability to counter-attack? They would then dominate the globe.

[hosepipe]

Both democrats and republicans "LOVE" to be told what they want to hear..
Same here on FR mostly...

[GarySpFc]

Are you aware of the fallacy in worshiping at the alter of Golytsin? I've noticed that a lot of posts seem based upon the works of Golytsin and the dupes he uses to proliferate his false prophecies. What is incredible is the fact that the Golytsin-ites (let's call them "Phoney Patriots") believe the following (not an all inclusive list):

1.) The collapse of the Soviet Union is a ruse: This means Ronald Reagan and the rest of the great men and women who carried out his plans to finish with the Soviet Union once and for all were just dupes and didn't really accomplish what they set out for.

2.) The communist bloc is just playing dead waiting to strike: Once again, a laughable charge. And when levied by people who include Ukrainians and Poles on their ping lists is even funnier. If you believe in Golytsin surely you would realize that the "Poles and Ukrainians" are all in on the Soviet plot..... (ridiculous, isn't it?)

3.) Golytsin is an honest broker serving the free world: Golytsin tells us that the KGB cannot be trusted. Wait a sec, that's a good statement, but WHO is Golytsin? A KGB agent. That's right. He's a KGB agent. But, wait, you say he defected so that means he's an honest broker - ok, but Golytsin tells you NOT to believe KGB defecters (except for him of course) because they are fake defecters and sent "to sully his reputation".. But, to believe that you'd have to, once again, believe Golytsin over loyal American officials who have determined otherwise. So, what you've actually done is place your faith in a "former" KGB agent over your fellow Americans.

And, btw, that means you believe a "former" KGB whose sole purpose in life seems to be making $$$ off of sullying the legacy of Ronald Reagan.

Can you imagine if Aldrich Ames had defected and then, after his usefulness to the KGB had run out, he made a living in Russia writing books about how the US's sole purpose in life was to enslave the Slavic world? You'd think that ANY Russian who believed such a man who betrayed his own country was an idiot - wouldn't you? Now think about Golytsin....

[mkjessup]

Those are substantial arguments and I have to agree that they are effectively irrefutable.

An excellent counterpost.

[Cold Heart]

Oh boy, you used the word irrefutible.

Look at it a different way.

We were crushing them and they were failing. Basically they went chapter 11 so they could stay in business.

[GarySpFc]

Look at it a different way.
We were crushing them and they were failing. Basically they went chapter 11 so they could stay in business.

Let's consider your different way.
Are you saying that is the way you wish it was, it could be, it may be, or is it just wild speculation on your part?

[Scotsman will be Free]

Let's suppose that the commies had the play possum plan. If so, they miscalculated, because the momentum of change overcame them, and they have been relegated to the ash heap of history.

[brain bleeds red]

These are not irrefutable arguments at all, in fact you really don't address Golitsyn's theories at all. Let me address them for a second:
1.) The collapse of the Soviet Union is a ruse: This means Ronald Reagan and the rest of the great men and women who carried out his plans to finish with the Soviet Union once and for all were just dupes and didn't really accomplish what they set out for.
So Ronald Reagan could NEVER have been fooled? That's it? You're saying Reagan was infallible? I would say you underestimate your enemy, my friend.

2.) The communist bloc is just playing dead waiting to strike: Once again, a laughable charge. And when levied by people who include Ukrainians and Poles on their ping lists is even funnier. If you believe in Golytsin surely you would realize that the "Poles and Ukrainians" are all in on the Soviet plot..... (ridiculous, isn't it?)

You don't say why it's a laughable charge, so I'm assuming we're all supposed to know already or you just suck at providing evidence. But you misrepresent the argument. They are not "playing dead waiting to strike". Apparently you are not as well versed on Golitsyn as you claim to be, or you are intentionally spreading misinformation. Golitsyn's assertion was the groups like the European Union, NAFTA, and the like were to become regional blocs with the intent of eventually taking away the US's sovereignty.

3.) Golytsin is an honest broker serving the free world: Golytsin tells us that the KGB cannot be trusted. Wait a sec, that's a good statement, but WHO is Golytsin? A KGB agent. That's right. He's a KGB agent. But, wait, you say he defected so that means he's an honest broker - ok, but Golytsin tells you NOT to believe KGB defecters (except for him of course) because they are fake defecters and sent "to sully his reputation".. But, to believe that you'd have to, once again, believe Golytsin over loyal American officials who have determined otherwise. So, what you've actually done is place your faith in a "former" KGB agent over your fellow Americans.

Okay, so your argument here is NEVER trust ANYTHING Russians have to say if it CONTRADICTS anything Any American official says.

[brain bleeds red]

These are not irrefutable arguments at all, in fact you really don't address Golitsyn's theories at all. Let me address them for a second:
1.) The collapse of the Soviet Union is a ruse: This means Ronald Reagan and the rest of the great men and women who carried out his plans to finish with the Soviet Union once and for all were just dupes and didn't really accomplish what they set out for.
So Ronald Reagan could NEVER have been fooled? That's it? You're saying Reagan was infallible? I would say you underestimate your enemy, my friend.

2.) The communist bloc is just playing dead waiting to strike: Once again, a laughable charge. And when levied by people who include Ukrainians and Poles on their ping lists is even funnier. If you believe in Golytsin surely you would realize that the "Poles and Ukrainians" are all in on the Soviet plot..... (ridiculous, isn't it?)

You don't say why it's a laughable charge, so I'm assuming we're all supposed to know already or you just suck at providing evidence. But you misrepresent the argument. They are not "playing dead waiting to strike". Apparently you are not as well versed on Golitsyn as you claim to be, or you are intentionally spreading misinformation. Golitsyn's assertion was the groups like the European Union, NAFTA, and the like were to become regional blocs with the intent of eventually taking away the US's sovereignty.

3.) Golytsin is an honest broker serving the free world: Golytsin tells us that the KGB cannot be trusted. Wait a sec, that's a good statement, but WHO is Golytsin? A KGB agent. That's right. He's a KGB agent. But, wait, you say he defected so that means he's an honest broker - ok, but Golytsin tells you NOT to believe KGB defecters (except for him of course) because they are fake defecters and sent "to sully his reputation".. But, to believe that you'd have to, once again, believe Golytsin over loyal American officials who have determined otherwise. So, what you've actually done is place your faith in a "former" KGB agent over your fellow Americans.

Okay, so your argument here is NEVER trust ANYTHING Russians have to say if it CONTRADICTS anything Any American official says.

[litehaus]

My memory says our "Intel Folks" said, after WW2, that the Soviets would be TEN YEARS in getting 'the bomb.'-------I can't count to 10 between 45 and 49...........

[308MBR]

Watch what happens to us when the Chinese, Iran and Saudis don't show up at the fed's little bond auction.

SOCIAL SPENDING WILL BE THE DEATH OF AMERICA.

[Cold Heart]

I'm saying the statements are opinions & not irrefutable.

It's an analogy.

I have no idea if the Soviet Union went Chapter 11 but Chapter 11 is a common practice for businesses that want to continue in business but realize they need to reorganize.

[GarySpFc]

Okay, so your argument here is NEVER trust ANYTHING Russians have to say if it CONTRADICTS anything Any American official says.

I would agree with you if it was just any American official, but when the bulk of the intel community laughs at Golytsin conspiracy theory that should tell you something.

[brain bleeds red]

I would agree with you if it was just any American official, but when the bulk of the intel community laughs at Golytsin conspiracy theory that should tell you something.

Perhaps you could tell me then why the only person in the "bulk of the intel community" who predicted the liberalization of Russia was Golitsyn? Perhaps you haven't heard of his 94% accuracy rate? Did you know he made 148 predictions about future Soviet actions, and 139 came true? Either you haven't researched the man, or you're a Commie agent sent to coverup the truth. Both are truly laughable.

[freedomfiter2]

I would agree with you if it was just any American official, but when the bulk of the intel community laughs at Golytsin conspiracy theory that should tell you something.

I just heard the founder of kos on NPR claim that he was comfortable with the CIA because it is run by fellow libs.

[GarySpFc]

Did you know he made 148 predictions about future Soviet actions, and 139 came true? Either you haven't researched the man, or you're a Commie agent sent to coverup the truth.

And you have throughly examined all 148 predictions very carefully to make certain they came true? Please furnish me the list? Please send me the list with your analysis, and not the book, "New Lies for Old."

[Alex-DV]

Did you dig your bomb shelter yet?

Especially for you:
http://www.lilesnet.com/paul/Memories/bomb.htm

[GarySpFc]

Either you haven't researched the man, or you're a Commie agent sent to coverup the truth. Both are truly laughable.

I was fighting communists on a Special Forces A-Team during Nam, before you were a gleam in your father's eye.

[Romanov]

Thank you for providing me with a HUGE laugh and for increasing the worth of my tin foil stock portfolio.

You and your playmates over at www.thefinalphase.org are loons. For the uninitiated - that particular forum includes phoney Freepers who post on here, stir up trouble, and then slam Jim Robinson and others on their own site. One of them poses on FR as a "Polish" citizen, when in reality he's from California. Another is a so-called "college" student who cannot come up with any real contributions to any discussions other than glib sloganeering and pictures of Putin in various "Soviet" motifs. I've even posted complete b.s. I made up about the Russians on that wacky site and you guys fell for it hook, line, and sinker - no research, no verification - you wanted to believe rubbish and you did.

You guys don't have a clue about real world analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of the Russian Federation - their Armed Forces, paramilitary, interior troops, or the other problems facing them. You cannot even see the only immediate threat the Russian Federation poses is to itself.

You also deny the Reagan legacy - in short you call the Reagan legacy phoney, null and void - quite in line with the Strobe Talbotts of the world. Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, Michael Moore, Sean Penn and others should join your little website. Like minds and whatnot.

It's quite possible Golytsin was the most successful disinformation campaign the Soviet Union ever engaged in during the Cold War. His arrival and efforts are said to have paralyzed the CIA.

He's as despicable as Ion Pacepa, Jan Sejna (deceased) and Oleg Kalugin - charlatons who feed on paranoia to earn a comfortable living. There are plenty of living Czechs and Romanians, and Russians who can bear witness to their direct involvement in communist crimes and repression - but you guys hold these thugs up as heros. These thugs only fled after they were about to lose all of their power and wealth they stole as part of the communist elite. They prosper today because they tell you EXACTLY what you want to hear. Even if what they say defies logic and reason and reality.

Don't you find it a little too convinient that these phonies appear during whatever "crisis" the world is facing and paint themselves as having deep inside information about what's actually going on DESPITE BEING DECLARED TRAITORS IN THEIR HOME COUNTRIES??? Do you actually believe they are able to maintain contact with "former" colleagues who then let them in on the "latest and greatest" secrets?

It's also no coincidence Golytsin wormed his way to Angleton - after all Angleton's confidant, British traitor Kim Philby, was probably providing the Soviets with info on Angleton's paranoia, etc. Golytsin was able to use it by stating, "those who defect after me will be charlatons, feeding you false information, and trying to discredit me." Angleton fell for it because he was mentally disturbed, or a willing participant - Philby's defection weighing heavy on his mind. Golytsin used this quite well during the Cold War - quite to the delight, probably, of his KGB masters. With the end of the Cold War Golystin had to continue his false prophecy because he needed to earn a living. How does he do it? Find morons who are willing to believe ludicrous "predictions" that defy logic and reality. Congrats.

The Cold War probably would have ended earlier if true defectors weren't discounted because of your "prophet" KGB agent Golytsin.

Now you guys play right into the hands of retired Soviet "Cold Warriors" who want to push Russia and the United States back into confrontation to soothe their hurt pride and wounded ego. Some of these guys work as "consultants" in Russia and point to the moronic "Soviet Union hasn't died, Russia is still our biggest threat" crowd and paint you as way more influential than you actually are in order to steer Russia into countering the US. Luckily, unlike in Russia, our leadership hasn't fallen into this trap.

[Thunder90]

Russia/Soviet/Coldwar2 PING

To be added or removed from the list, freepmail me...

[Thunder90]

Not really. Putin is a communist with an image team and a makeover.

[Lukasz]

For the uninitiated - that particular forum includes phoney Freepers who post on here, stir up trouble, and then slam Jim Robinson and others on their own site. One of them poses on FR as a "Polish" citizen, when in reality he's from California.

Please inform us, who is that person? We also would like to read how you back your claim? I’m personally dying from curiosity :)

[GodGunsGuts]

According to Riebling, 139 out of 148 of Golitsyn's predictions came true by 1993. You have yet to specifically address Riebling's claim. Instead, you have chosen to engage in character assassination. This is a tactic of the Left and highly suspect.

[Thunder90]

The hatred of Golitsyn is part of the Intelligence community's intentional ignorance of the Russian/Chinese threat. It is seen as un-PC and bad for the markets to call those two countries enemies. Also, because the intel agencies have been gutted, they have their hands full dealing with the WOT, so there is not enough intel agents to go around when it comes time to deal with the Russians/Chinese. Even North Korea does not get the same coverage that Al Queida gets.

[Thunder90]

First thing's first...

Reagan's legacy nearly uncovered the Russian plan, as Russia almost did genuinely collapse. The Soviets only held power through the control of the Russian, Belarussian, and Kazak militaries, and their police (FSB, SVR, Belarus KGB, ect). Some also held seats on the Duma with different party facades, and also owned various businesses. It was not until Putin took power that the Soviets returned to power in Russia and all hope to properly correct the Russian problem was lost.

Second thing's second...

If Russia has totally abandoned Communism, why is Lenin still on display and a Russian Communist Party? Why did Putin have a giant Soviet throwback day last year during the anniversary of the end of the Great Patriotic War? Why have Soviet criminals been allowed to go free? And finally, why is a KGB agent in charge of Russia?

[<1/1,000,000th%]

"For a generation, the Central Intelligence Agency told successive presidents everything they needed to know about the Soviet Union," said Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, "except that it was about to fall apart.

Hardly surprising now that we know the CIA is full of communists and Baghdad Bob's.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Lol. Now it is the Chinese keeping America afloat. Why would any good financial mind avoid the safest government debt around?

[justshutupandtakeit]

Predictions based on what would happen is not the same as saying there was a plan in place to cause those happenings.

Anyone believing the USSR decided to dismember itself, reduce its role in the world and to remove the CP monopoly on political power as part of a deep, plot to become stronger apparently would believe anything.

Russia has national interests which are not necessarily ideological so some of its subsequent behavior should be viewed from the perspective of Nationalism rather than Communism.

[Thunder90]

You don't need Golitsyn to see the threat that Putin poses to the West.

[Thunder90]

Selling weapons to Islamofascist countries is NOT in Russia's "National" intrests.

[Thunder90]

CIA=Central Incompentence Agency

[wireman]

Either you haven't researched the man, or you're a Commie agent sent to coverup the truth

Yeah, that's the ticket... A Commie agent!!!

You ought to calm down, junior.

[justshutupandtakeit]

That is your opinion not theirs.

[brain bleeds red]

Either you haven't researched the man, or you're a Commie agent sent to coverup the truth Yeah, that's the ticket... A Commie agent!!! You ought to calm down, junior.

I don't think you understand. Those are literally the only two options; either you don't know what you're talking about, i.e. you're a dunce, or you're spreading misinformation.
There's no other reason to be saying Golityn's a fake. He predicted actions by the Soviet Union that NOBODY could have predicted.
I have heard some here say that Golitsyn was STILL with the KGB when he made his claims. This is patently ludicrous for the following reasons:
1) Russia had nothing to gain by sending Golitsyn.
2) For years, Russia was actively trying to KILL him. Even now, unlike most other "defectors", the exact whereabouts of Golitsyn are UNKNOWN.
3) If Golitsyn was a fake, that would mean Russia was WEAK, and sent Golitsyn to create the impression that Russia was STRONGER than they really were by saying Russia was concealing the depth of it's intentions.
Russia would only do this if they were AFRAID of the United States and thought the US was preparing an attack on the United States. This is the only reason for sending Golitsyn as a "misinformation" agent; this is the only reason for portraying Russia as "stronger" than they really were.
It just doesn't make sense. The United States would only attack Russia if they were attacked by Russia. This was the foundation of the whole MAD(mutually-assured-destruction) policy. You nuke us, we'll nuke you.
But we were never going to launch a pre-emptive strike on Russia. The Russians knew this. So why would they want to create the impression in the minds of the Americans that they were more deceptive than they really were?
The answer? They didn't. Golitsyn was an anomaly; one who escaped, and lived to tell his story. The Soviets never quit the war; they simply switched fronts. This is the real truth.

[Romanov]

"First thing's first...

Reagan's legacy nearly uncovered the Russian plan, as Russia almost did genuinely collapse. The Soviets only held power through the control of the Russian, Belarussian, and Kazak militaries, and their police (FSB, SVR, Belarus KGB, ect). Some also held seats on the Duma with different party facades, and also owned various businesses. It was not until Putin took power that the Soviets returned to power in Russia and all hope to properly correct the Russian problem was lost."

First Things First - Wow - you really are living in a fanstasy world based on incorrect assumptions and inaccurate portrayals of history. Let's get you some help:

This statement:
"The Soviets only held power through the control of the Russian, Belarussian, and Kazak militaries, and their police (FSB, SVR, Belarus KGB, ect). "

Is incredibly WRONG. The SOVIETS (read carefully) held power through the control of the SOVIET (read carefully) KGB, SOVIET MVD, SOVIET CC CPSU, SOVIET Armed Forces. Full STOP. The FSB, SVR, Belarusian KGB, etc., came about AFTER the Fall of the Soviet Union. The KGB was broken up by Yeltsin and made into the FSB (domestic - like the FBI), SVR (Foreign Intel, like the CIA), and FAPSI. This move was resisted, of course, by KGB veterans who were fired and forced to retire. The current Russian MVD, FSB, Russian Military is a JOKE. Barely capable of dealing with internal conficts, let alone international. I base that on dealing with them directly, visiting their military bases, seeing their soldiers begging on the streets, seeing their rusted out equipment, seeing their overweight drunken officer corps and keeping abreast of all the failures and scandals of the aforementioned entities. Perhaps you'd like let us know your sources that contradict my firsthand information and observations backed up with Russian and American analytical sources from various reputable think-tanks and analytical centers?

Second thing's second:

"If Russia has totally abandoned Communism, why is Lenin still on display and a Russian Communist Party? Why did Putin have a giant Soviet throwback day last year during the anniversary of the end of the Great Patriotic War? Why have Soviet criminals been allowed to go free? And finally, why is a KGB agent in charge of Russia?"

Seattle, Washington has a Lenin statue - so, based on your "logic" the US is also Communist? The US has a Communist Party and various leftist parties - so based on your "logic" the US is Communist. Putin's "giant throwback" during the end of WWII celebrations has been explained ad infinitum ad naseum. Once again - done to honor the vets who fought in that Army's uniform. Nothing more nothing less.

Why is a KGB agent in charge of Russia? Well, because he was ELECTED. So, if you believe in your "logic" when a leftist asks you why a CIA agent (George Bush Sr.) was "allowed" to be President of the USA, what do you say?

Thunder, you don't even understand what "communism" is/was and why it is actually not even close to being returned in Russia. I suggest you do some research before you continue making such inaccurately wild claims. Or perhaps you would like to tell us exactly what, in your opinion, makes Russia a communist state today?

[Romanov]

Puhleeze, and what's next? Are you Golytsinites going to say Nostradamus predicted 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina? Anyone can make another person's "prediction" fit to any situation. How about you guys post these "accurate" predictions? BTW, read this carefully - RONALD REAGAN PREDICTED THE FALL OF COMMUNISM IN A SPEECH TO THE RNC IN THE 1960S. IN THIS SPEECH HE LAID OUT EXACTLY HOW COMMUNISM COULD AND WOULD BE DEFEATED. When he was elected he and his administration followed this policy and WON THE COLD WAR.

Face it - If you believe in Golystin you've been DUPED by a very successful KGB disinformation campaign. Hell, they even have you discrediting and labeling men and women in the US Intel Community as incompetent and/or traitorous. Lemme think here real hard - who would actually benefit from convincing American lemmings Golytsin is 100% accurate and a "hero"?

Unbelievable what some are willing to believe when they live in a fantasy world. If you truly think he's right - take a trip to the Former Soviet Union and travel all over the place. Take good notes, make good observations, and tell us how any of those new countries that arose from the USSR's ashes would be capable of posing any sort of threat.

[Romanov]

You guys are INCREDIBLE! Hilarious. Let's see your analysis:

You wrote:
"1) Russia had nothing to gain by sending Golitsyn."

First of all, it wasn't Russia it was the Soviet Union (this mistake is common amongst people pretending they actually know something about the USSR and Russia). But most importantly:

The Soviet Union KNEW they were having problems with defectors. They KNEW people would continue to defect from their criminal regime. They KNEW KGB agents defecting were extremely damaging. They also KNEW Angleton's weaknesses and paranoias (thanks to his buddy Philby). They naturally would send someone to get close to Angleton and discredit legitimate defectors and making the information the legitimate defectors provided unbelieved and unactionable. Plus, they had the added bonus of Golytsin convincing Angleton there was a "mole" in his ranks and knew the CIA would become disfunctional in the department Angleton ran. Guess what - THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED.


"2) For years, Russia was actively trying to KILL him. Even now, unlike most other "defectors", the exact whereabouts of Golitsyn are UNKNOWN."

RUBBISH. Golitsyn is the source of these "someone is trying to kill me" claims. Not what one would call an unimpeachable source. Perhaps he really believes these claims, but he's not even hardly mentioned in the Russian press or documentaries. Other defectors are - Gordievsky, etc. Now why would you think they don't mention Golitsyn or stir up the hatred for him??? Well?

"3) If Golitsyn was a fake, that would mean Russia was WEAK, and sent Golitsyn to create the impression that Russia was STRONGER than they really were by saying Russia was concealing the depth of it's intentions."

You're confused. Understandably so - Golitsyn was sent to cause strife in the CIA, discredit legitimate defectors, and lead analysts down false roads. The crap he wrote about in his books is solely to MAKE MONEY off of paranoics who cannot reason or think for themselves.

What amazes me is the willingness of some Americans to believe a KGB agent's propaganda and disinformation and then the same Americans attack their own intel community. Can you not see clearly who would benefit from this situation?

[wireman]

Those are literally the only two options; either you don't know what you're talking about, i.e. you're a dunce, or you're spreading misinformation.

You forgot the crucial third, and in my opinion most plausible, option - You're a whack job who has lost touch with reality!

There's a Commie under your bed too!

[brain bleeds red]

What you're forgetting to mention is practically nobody except Angleton believed Golitsyn - the other intelligence agencies couldn't stomach the concept that they had been infiltrated, so they automatically refuted him.

Golitsyn didn't sow any "confusion" in the intel community - nobody paid him any mind.

As for my Point Three, you simply say "You're confused." Okay, why? The ultimate point of Golitsyn's message was that the Soviet Union was stronger than it appeared. The message was not to underestimate the Soviet Union.

Now you tell me why the Soviet Union would want Golitsyn to send that message, implicitly or explicitly?

Why?

[Scotsman will be Free]

You've got a point.

[GodGunsGuts]

Romanov,

You have been asked several times now to SPECIFICALLY address the claims made in the Riebling article. Instead, you throw a lot of wild claims around, engage in character assassination, and talk as though you were on a first name basis with Colby and Nosenko. According to Riebling, 139 out of Golitsyn's 148 extremely specific predictions materialized by 1993.

So far you have failed to A) demonstrate why said predictions are in reality incorrect, or B) demonstrate how and why the continuing Soviets were able to engineer events in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union to match Golitsyn's predictions almost exactly, or C) demonstrate why Golitsyn's predictions, while correct up to 1993, are no longer valid today, or D) Why no KGB defector has come forward with documentation showing that Golitsyn was a dispatched defector with orders to dupe the West into believing a genuine collapse of Communism was indeed phony.

The list could go on and on. Wild accusations and disinformation are trademarks of the hard-Left. Let's hope that your next post will be comprised of remarks that actually back up your claims. Providing detailed answers to one or all of the above would be a great start--GGG