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I think the vast majority of Golitsyn's predictions were correct up to the early 1990s. It is quite possible that things took on a life of their own passed a certain point. I just wish Golitsyn was still publishing to see his take on modern development in Russia, E. Europe, Red China, Latin America and the Middle East. As for Golitsyn's major predictions, they strike me as just about as valid today as the day Golitsyn wrote them:

‘PERESTROIKA’, THE FINAL PHASE: ITS MAIN OBJECTIVES

‘The new method sees ‘perestroika’, not as a surprising and spontaneous change, but as the logical result of thirty years of preparation and as the next and final phase of the strategy: it sees it in a broader context than Soviet ‘openness’ has revealed.’

‘It sees it, not only as a renewal of Soviet society, but as a global strategic design for ‘restructuring’ the entire capitalist world.’

‘The following strategic objectives of ‘perestroika’ may be distinguished:

For the USSR

(a) ‘Restructuring’ and revitalization of the Soviet socialist economy through the incorporation of some elements of the market economy.

(b) ‘Restructuring’ of the Stalinist regime into a form of ‘Communist democracy’ with an appearance of political pluralism [= ‘democratism’, or false democracy].

(c) ‘Reconsructing’ a repressive regime with a brutal face into an attractive socialist model with a human façade and seeming similarity to the Swedish social democratic system.’

For Eastern Europe

‘Economic and political ‘restructuring’ of the existing regimes into pseudo-social democratic models while preserving specific national historical features such as the strong Catholic Socialist tradition in Poland and the pre-war democratic tradition in Czechoslovakia.’

For Western Europe

(a) ‘Bringing about a new political alliance between the pseudo-social democratic regimes in the USSR and Eastern Europe and the Euro-Communist parties and genuine social democratic parties in Western Europe.

(b) ‘Restructuring’ political and military blocs—NATO and the Warsaw Pact—and the creation of a singe ‘Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals’ incorporating a reunited, neutral Germany.’

For the main US alliances

(a) ‘Splitting the United States, Western Europe and Japan.

(b) Dissolution of NATO and the US-Japan security pact, and the withdrawal of US troops from Western Europe and Japan.’

For Third World countries

‘The introduction and promotion of a new Soviet model with a mixed economy and a human face in Latin America, Africa and Asia through a joint campaign by the pseudo-social democratic regimes of the USSR and Eastern Europe and the genuine social democrats of Western Europe led by the Socialist International.’

For the United States

(a) ‘To neutralize the influence of the anti-Communist political right in the American political parties and to create favourable conditions for a victory of the radical left in the 1992 US presidential elections.

(b) To ‘restructure’ the American military, political, economic and social status quo to accommodate greater convergence between the Soviet and American systems and the eventual creation of a single World Government.’

The paramount global objective

‘The paramount global objective of the strategy of ‘perestroika’ is to weaken and neutralize anti-Communist ideology and the influence of anti-Communists in political life in the United States, Western Europe and elsewhere—presenting them as anachronistic survivors of the Cold War, reactionaries and obstacles to ‘restructuring’ and peace. Anyone who warns about Moscow’s true objectives is automatically branded a ‘Cold Warrior’, even by people who have doubts about Moscow’s motives.’

Some of Golitzen's predictions were correct. However, there is no getting around the fact that, over time, his view has diverged from reality. This does not necessarily prove that some of his original insights were not real. But one of his core, fundamental beliefs---that Russia would pretend to move away from communism while actually not doing so---has turned out not to be true.

Anyone who has been in planning sessions can make educated guesses as to what will happen in the future by looking at history, events, and trends. I have been a multiple lines insurance agent with a major company for 37 years, and it didn't take rocket science to know powerful hurricanes were eventually going to do major damage in southern Florida and New Orleans. Actuaries tell us these events will happen, and can give educated guesses when they will happen, but they are still guessing. Golitsyn was in a position to make educated guesses, and that is all his predictions were...nothing more than guesses. He simply added the caveat that the Soviet Union was a Phoenix and would fly again. As Romanov has pointed out the majority of Golitsyn's predictions were WRONG!