Posted on 08/22/2006 11:53:09 AM PDT by abb
Newspapers stocks are near the valuation floor, but the Internet isn't likely to contribute to their growth for up to 18 months, according to a Tuesday report by Credit Suisse.
The report follows news that July advertising number for the industry declined 2.1% from a slightly positive 0.5% growth in June.
"July newspaper performance not only marks the weakest month of the year, but was also softer than April, which was hurt by the Easter shift," said Debra Schwartz, an analyst for Credit Suisse.
"With few exceptions, the companies will need a strong September to meet newspaper guidance for the quarter."
If September proves to be a lackluster month, more cost saving measures could be on the way, Schwartz said.
"In the second quarter, cost control helped eight of the companies to meet or beat the consensus," she said.
Eventually, however, Schwartz said that the Internet should become a viable platform for growth starting in the next 18 to 24 months.
"We continue to believe the longer term viability of the newspapers partially hinges on their ability to monetize the Internet," she said.
In July, Tribune and McClatchy received greater than 7% of their revenues from the net, while New York Times received an 8% contribution and the Washington Post a 10% contribution.
That's close to the 10% to 15% online revenue contributions newspaper companies will need to offset the print declines, said Credit Suisse.
For now, however, Schwartz said investors should hold off. Yet she did recommend Dow Jones and Scripps due to their reputation for higher growth, adding that Tribune offers "a significant upside."
Newspaper stocks are down 11% year to date and down 4% since July, according to Credit Suisse.
In morning trading, shares of EW Scripps, The New York Times Company and McClatchy were down slightly, while Tribune and Dow Jones saw modest gains.
Translation: More Layoffs and Firings
Ping
Car dealers are shifting 2 BILLION dollars of ad money from newspapers and TV to the internet this year. They say they get much more bang for the buck because internet shoppers are more likely to know what they want to buy and take far less time to consumate the sale, approximately 45 min. in the dealer showroom vs. 3 hours for the non-internet buyer. This is a huge loss for papers, especially, and another nail in their coffins.
Floor to me = liquidation basis. Cease operations, scrap the equipment and sell the real estate.
Until they drop the valuation again due to further declining readership.
And classified revenue, the "river of newspaper gold", is getting sucked up by the web.
"With few exceptions, the companies will need a strong September to meet newspaper guidance for the quarter."
While I'd love to contribute to their demise, I'll continue my Sunday-Only newspaper subscription for the coupons and sale flyers, and the fact that I use newspaper in so many ways...making planting pots for seedlings, shredded in the compost bucket to control odors, shredded for nesting material for my laying hens, and twisted into fire starters for the wood stove.
But read it? LOL! It's not worth it, but I do get my $1.50/week use out of the actual newspaper. ;)
Well, if you knock out the floor here, you could open up all the way to the basement. If that's not enough room, we could jackhammer out the concrete and dig at least another 20 feet down.
Microsoft, Google, Yahoo all are becoming the MSM. And they are even more left wing than most papers.
The weekly grocery sale ads that are in my local Gannetoid rags are available online. It may be worth your time to check and see which are available online in your area. After all, $1.50/wk translates into $78.00/yr and priceless satisfaction in knowing you had a part in putting the bastards out of business...
Pinch sure picked a good time to be building his new building, didn't he?
In the words of Nelson Muntz... "HA HA!!!"
Liberals in government always raise taxes to meet their needs for ever increasing revenue, so why doesn't the liberal MSM adopt the same strategy..just raise prices?...(G)
CNN's special on OBL should be interesting. Are they coming around? Wait, does OBL build roads or give to aides patients?
ping
I agree!
I agree!
Below are the two year charts of the major players versus MDY, the midcap index.
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