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Zogby: Battle for Congress Tightens (Dems 37%, GOP 34%)
Zogby International ^ | September 15, 2006 | John Zogby

Posted on 09/15/2006 10:42:53 AM PDT by West Coast Conservative

Following an aggressive media blitz, the latest Zogby America poll finds the standing of President Bush and congressional Republicans climbing as the November elections rapidly approach.

The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 12-14, 2006, included 1,034 respondents, and carries a margin of error of +/– 3.1 percentage points.

The poll contains good news for congressional Republicans battling a strong Democratic push to retake the House and Senate. While Republican congressional candidates trailed their Democratic counterparts in the “generic ballot” question by a 39% to 31% margin a month ago, today they have whittled the Democrats’ lead to just three points, 37% to 34%.

Coming on the heels of a series of policy speeches culminating in a Sept. 11 address to the nation outlining the President’s vision for domestic anti-terror programs and the War in Iraq, the Zogby survey shows President Bush’s standing has increased five points since mid-August, when just 34% of voters rated him positively. Bush had previously risen to 37% in a Sept. 5 Zogby America poll.

The poll does, however, suggest a Democratic strategy of “nationalizing” the mid-term elections has succeeded, with 71% of respondents in the poll saying their vote this fall will be driven by national, rather than local, issues. But voters planning on casting ballots for Republicans are more likely than those voting for Democrats to say they are casting their ballot based on national issues by a 79% to 69% margin.

Another positive development for Congressional Republicans is that one in four of their supporters—23%—consider terrorism the top issue as they go to the polls, easily the top issue for those backing the GOP. This is the same percentage as say they will vote for Democrats based on the War in Iraq and general U.S. foreign policy. Republican candidates also continue to benefit from the dual issues of morality and values, which are motivating one in nine voters planning to pull the Republican lever this fall. Another 8% of GOP supporters say the War in Iraq and U.S. foreign policy are their prime motivators.

For Democrats, meanwhile, the war in Iraq is clearly the top issue, at 23%. But more traditional Democratic issues like jobs and the economy (14%), education (10%), and healthcare (5%) round out the top four issues for Democratic voters. Terrorism barely registers, at 4%, while the environment is a non-issue for Democrats at 2%, despite repeated discussion over the past year of global climate change.

War in Iraq, Terror Dominate Mid-Terms

Among those voters who say national issues are motivating them at the ballot box, the war in Iraq is clearly the most important single issue, with 22% indicating they will cast their ballot based on the conflict. Terrorism, meanwhile, follows at 14%.

The Iraq War remains unpopular, with a narrow 51% majority saying the conflict has not been worth the loss of American lives, with 42% say it has. Interestingly the survey finds that seniors are among the least favorable in their view of the war, with 58% saying it has not been worth the loss of lives, while middle-aged Americans—those 30 to 49—are closely divided, with 49% saying the war has not been worth the loss of American lives while 46% say it has. Voters under the age of 30 are less sure, with 49% believing the war has not been worth the losses, 39% believing it has been, and 12% undecided—the most of any age group.

Unsurprisingly, Republicans and Democrats continue to view the war in different terms. While 68% of Republicans say the war has been worth the cost in lives, 76% of Democrats disagree. Democrats seem Still, the overall numbers represent a marked shift from early September, when 58% of likely voters said the Iraq War has not been worth the lives lost.

Despite Close Battle, Congress Remains Unpopular

Regardless of the late GOP surge, Congress continues to be viewed negatively by the vast majority of voters. Just 19% of those polled had a favorable impression of Congress’s performance on the job—a number that cut across party and geographic lines.

Pollster John Zogby: “Both parties can find advantages in our latest polling. Democrats have partly succeeded in making the congressional races about national issues – now the question is whether they will succeed in providing an alternative to Republicans. Republicans are helped by President Bush's improving job approval numbers and by cutting the lead of Democrats in congressional races. While the Republicans benefit from voters who are concerned about the war on terror and moral issues, Democrats are helped by voters who are most concerned about the Iraq war or the economy.”


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006election; bush; congress; democrat; gop; poll; republican; senate; zogby

1 posted on 09/15/2006 10:42:55 AM PDT by West Coast Conservative
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To: West Coast Conservative

It's funny how much better a "generic Democrat" does than any actual Democrat.


2 posted on 09/15/2006 10:44:28 AM PDT by thoughtomator ("Martyr" - Arabic for "cannon fodder")
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To: West Coast Conservative

Disclaimer: Zogby sucks at prognosticating. LOL BUMP!


3 posted on 09/15/2006 10:44:56 AM PDT by conservativecorner
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To: West Coast Conservative

4 posted on 09/15/2006 10:46:16 AM PDT by The G Man (The NY Times did "great harm to the United States" - President George W. Bush 6/26/06)
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To: West Coast Conservative

Democrats peak in May, 'Pubbies peak on Election Day.

This is gonna be good! I can already hear the whining and gnashing of teeth that will be coming from the Donks after the Pubbies increase their margins in both houses of Congress.


5 posted on 09/15/2006 10:50:17 AM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: West Coast Conservative

Woo Hoooooooo ....


6 posted on 09/15/2006 10:50:41 AM PDT by BunnySlippers (Never Forget)
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To: West Coast Conservative
Good Lord! If Zogby has it this close the Democrats are in for a big surprise.

Just saw this cartoon on another thread and it fits here too.


7 posted on 09/15/2006 10:51:57 AM PDT by HawaiianGecko (Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance.)
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To: gridlock

Oh man... that'll be some fantastic Shadenfreude.


8 posted on 09/15/2006 10:52:33 AM PDT by farlander (Strategery - sure beats liberalism!)
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To: West Coast Conservative; All
Like I've said for many months now, the Democrats will win NOTHING. I'm glad the reality of this election is coming to light now as the rubber hits the road. Things just keep getting better and better. The Democratrs have nothing to offer but hate and venom and accusations and obstructionism. They are the party of "NO" and oppose the GOP and 65% to 85% of the American people on the major issues facing the nation; the war, border control, immigration reform without amnesty, constructionist Judges, gay marriage, partial birth and other frivilous abortions, and all the anti-Christian angst on the left. The Democrat positions are NOT a winning game. Now even their own polls are showing that. The GOP will pick up seats. I've said it for months and I'll say it again. Bank on it. :)

All conservatives have to do is keep the peddle to the metal and vote ASAP in early voting, and get all their conservative friends and family members to vote Republican. Keeping our boots on the liberals throats will guarantee a liberal loss nationally, and give the GOP two more years to fight the war, loser taxes, protect the border, support constructionist Judges, and marginalize RINOs and make them realize which party they belong to. Every conservative victory makes it harder for RINOs to oppose the conservative majority. Just have to keep the pressure on. :)

9 posted on 09/15/2006 10:56:44 AM PDT by TexasPatriot8 (Liberty must be defended, so the children of those who fell, can understand its value. Never forget.)
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To: West Coast Conservative
At TradeSports.com, the punters are buying contracts for GOP control of the Senate at 84.7 (100 is the top price).

GOP control of the House is going for 52 -- up from 40 last week.
10 posted on 09/15/2006 10:59:11 AM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: gridlock

Yes isn't it AWESOME!? I can't wait till that Wednesday morning to get more pictures of crying liberals. And to drop in to DU and read all the vulgarity and see the carnage. :) Heheheheheh. You just can't beat REAL ideas and solutions, and that's the GOP. Period.


11 posted on 09/15/2006 11:00:40 AM PDT by TexasPatriot8 (Liberty must be defended, so the children of those who fell, can understand its value. Never forget.)
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To: HawaiianGecko

Boy is that ever accurate symbology. Excellent cartoon. :)


12 posted on 09/15/2006 11:00:56 AM PDT by TexasPatriot8 (Liberty must be defended, so the children of those who fell, can understand its value. Never forget.)
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To: farlander

Watch out, everytime the Dems are close but failing the media party will come to the rescue with some made up story indicting the Republicans and White House. Check your watch and look for some story that paints republicans as racists nazis. I predict this story will be broken by ABC to make up for the 9/11 program.


13 posted on 09/15/2006 11:05:09 AM PDT by tigtog
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To: West Coast Conservative

14 posted on 09/15/2006 11:11:26 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I am SO glad to no longer be associated with the party of "dependence on government"!)
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To: West Coast Conservative
Didn't Zogby predict a Kerry win right up till election eve, 2004? Then he suddenly found a couple more points to award to Bush twelve hours before the election? Zogby massaged the data so badly that his final scores for 2004 were an embarassment.

Rasmussen is really the most accurate of all the national polls - I think they got it right by half a percentage.

15 posted on 09/15/2006 11:11:35 AM PDT by Mongeaux (''I would sooner be governed by the first 2,000 names in the Boston phone directory," W.F. Buckley)
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA

Gotta love futures markets. The are *very* accurate predictors of the future.


16 posted on 09/15/2006 11:11:51 AM PDT by farlander (Strategery - sure beats liberalism!)
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To: thoughtomator

Are these "respondents" all adults, registered voters or likely voters?


17 posted on 09/15/2006 11:12:25 AM PDT by traderrob6
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To: The G Man; West Coast Conservative

18 posted on 09/15/2006 11:13:56 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I am SO glad to no longer be associated with the party of "dependence on government"!)
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To: West Coast Conservative

While he encourages us not to get overly-excited, today Rush referenced internal Republican polling that reflects this same positive results. Rush said Republicans find the upward tick in republican numbers almost "unbelievable", so they must be pretty impressive.


19 posted on 09/15/2006 11:14:03 AM PDT by YaYa123 (@)
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To: TexasPatriot8
All conservatives have to do is keep the peddle to the metal and vote ASAP in early voting, and get all their conservative friends and family members to vote Republican. Keeping our boots on the liberals throats will guarantee a liberal loss nationally, and give the GOP two more years to fight the war, loser taxes, protect the border, support constructionist Judges, and marginalize RINOs and make them realize which party they belong to. Every conservative victory makes it harder for RINOs to oppose the conservative majority. Just have to keep the pressure on. :)

That was excellent and well stated.....Asides from these logical reasons there is an entertainment benefit as well for wouldn't it be a total riot to watch the RAT response if they lose seats after all their chest beating?! There is nothing funnier than an unhinged Liberal!! Thanks and Freegards DN

20 posted on 09/15/2006 11:14:42 AM PDT by democrats_nightmare
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To: TexasPatriot8
And to drop in to DU and read all the vulgarity and see the carnage. :)

I predict that they will be carrying on about how the polls showed them winning in August and those polls are never wrong!

Then the tinfoil will come out and we will see conspiracy theories in abundance.

21 posted on 09/15/2006 11:18:08 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (The Democratic Party will not exist in a few years....we are watching history unfold before us.)
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To: TexasPatriot8
I think I am going to go lurk in the DU fever swamp and watch them flail for a bit. The wednesday after the 2004 elections they shut the site completely down for a few days - only registered members could get in. The mood there was practically suicidal.

I hated myself for enjoying it so much.

22 posted on 09/15/2006 11:19:05 AM PDT by Mongeaux (''I would sooner be governed by the first 2,000 names in the Boston phone directory," W.F. Buckley)
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To: TexasPatriot8

All conservatives have to do is keep the peddle to the metal and vote ASAP in early voting, and get all their conservative friends and family members to vote Republican

Amen. It's all about GOOV - Get Out Our Vote. If conservatives who care about politics ask their family, friends and neighbors in their precinct to vote the right way, 80% of those asked will... just because they were asked and not because they care about politics.

Most good people care about the NFL, American Idol, church and family; NOT politics. We need to reach those people.

Who ever wins the ground game wins 90% of the time. That Hail Mary airgame wins less than 10% of the time.


23 posted on 09/15/2006 11:23:00 AM PDT by spintreebob
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To: thoughtomator

Yeah, but if Zogby says it's so, . . .


24 posted on 09/15/2006 11:26:12 AM PDT by SmithL (Where are we going? . . . . And why are we in this handbasket????)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

LOL. That's a great fad. :)


25 posted on 09/15/2006 11:32:24 AM PDT by Constantine XIII
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To: Mongeaux

And Rasmussen predicted on the Sean Hannity show that the GOP would only lose 5 House seats at this point. Rush Limbaugh said on Friday's show that new Internals are saying the GOP will keep the House and Senate.


26 posted on 09/15/2006 12:12:43 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: tigtog

tigtog, great point. Right now CBS is digging thru Garbage cans looking for the next big GOP scandal to help their allies at the Democratic party. Maybe chuckie Schumer can get a hold of some more Republican Candidate Credit Reports.


27 posted on 09/15/2006 12:17:37 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: farlander

http://www.Tradesports.com did tank after the Bogus exit polls of Election Day 2004, with Bush going from 51% to 10% within 2 Hours.


28 posted on 09/15/2006 12:19:48 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: West Coast Conservative

Discounting Zogby's bias, this means the Pubs are dead even or ahead.


29 posted on 09/15/2006 12:22:44 PM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: Welike ike
Schumer won't check the credit reports of the other Republicans because they're white. Schumer only did it to the Man of Steele, cos he's scared of black men.
30 posted on 09/15/2006 12:28:40 PM PDT by Kuksool
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To: West Coast Conservative

Isn't this poll kind of worthless because what matters is district by district and state by state voting? (Yeah, I know, a lot of folks think Zogby's worthless anyway).

And who has the Zogby Special Sauce? I want to see it!


31 posted on 09/15/2006 12:30:21 PM PDT by Looper
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To: TexasPatriot8
hey are the party of "NO" and oppose the GOP and 65% to 85% of the American people on the major issues facing the nation; the war, border control, immigration reform without amnesty, constructionist Judges, gay marriage, partial birth and other frivilous abortions, and all the anti-Christian angst on the left. The Democrat positions are NOT a winning game. Now even their own polls are showing that. The GOP will pick up seats.

As long as the GOP campaigns on these issues
32 posted on 09/15/2006 1:12:55 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: TexasPatriot8
Yes isn't it AWESOME!? I can't wait till that Wednesday morning to get more pictures of crying liberals. And to drop in to DU and read all the vulgarity and see the carnage. :) Heheheheheh. You just can't beat REAL ideas and solutions, and that's the GOP.

Very true

But the muslims know the MSM will do all in their power to unseat the GOP and if all of a sudden Iraq gets real violent with American casualties the MSM will blast it to the high heavens

Count on the muslims to plan something just before elections
33 posted on 09/15/2006 1:15:58 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: YaYa123
Rush said Republicans find the upward tick in republican numbers almost "unbelievable", so they must be pretty impressive.

What does that say about the GOP that they didn't see this coming

Once again grass roots voters get energized by the wacked out democrats

GOP better not get cocky and blow it
34 posted on 09/15/2006 1:18:07 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: democrats_nightmare
Asides from these logical reasons there is an entertainment benefit as well for wouldn't it be a total riot to watch the RAT response if they lose seats after all their chest beating?!

There extreme base will eat each other alive
35 posted on 09/15/2006 1:19:07 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: West Coast Conservative
the Democrats’ lead to just three points, 37% to 34%.

That's what we like to call "Diebold Range" </Rovian>
36 posted on 09/15/2006 1:39:58 PM PDT by BJClinton (What happens on Free Republic, stays on Google.)
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To: West Coast Conservative

Since this is from zombie, the GOP is probably up by 2 or 3 points and surging.


37 posted on 09/15/2006 1:45:36 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (DON'T BELIEVE PESSIMISM: FEELINGS ARE FOR LOVE SONGS. FACTS ARE FOR PREDICTING WHO WINS IN NOV)
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To: uncbob

I wrote: "Rush said Republicans find the upward tick in republican numbers almost "unbelievable", so they must be pretty impressive. "

You responded: "What does that say about the GOP that they didn't see this coming"


And I want to thank you for thinking through to the more serious implication of what Rush said. I missed it entirely, {slapping my wrist}.

What does it say about the GOP???? Nothing good!!


38 posted on 09/15/2006 1:46:50 PM PDT by YaYa123 (@)
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To: uncbob
Count on the muslims to plan something just before elections

That could very well backfire on the ragheads and help the GOP. We're not like the spaniards.

39 posted on 09/15/2006 4:01:00 PM PDT by Mogollon
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To: YaYa123
What does it say about the GOP???? Nothing good!!

Wouldn't be surprised if a number of them were thinking of distancing themselves from Bush till they saw the grassroots are aroused
40 posted on 09/15/2006 4:48:35 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: Erik Latranyi
Then the tinfoil will come out and we will see conspiracy theories in abundance.

Sorry, I'm too busy to respond right now.

I'm tinkering with a Diebolt voting machine.

;-)

41 posted on 09/17/2006 6:57:09 PM PDT by Republic If You Can Keep It
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