Skip to comments.Zogby: Battle for Congress Tightens (Dems 37%, GOP 34%)
Posted on 09/15/2006 10:42:53 AM PDT by West Coast Conservative
Following an aggressive media blitz, the latest Zogby America poll finds the standing of President Bush and congressional Republicans climbing as the November elections rapidly approach.
The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 12-14, 2006, included 1,034 respondents, and carries a margin of error of +/ 3.1 percentage points.
The poll contains good news for congressional Republicans battling a strong Democratic push to retake the House and Senate. While Republican congressional candidates trailed their Democratic counterparts in the generic ballot question by a 39% to 31% margin a month ago, today they have whittled the Democrats lead to just three points, 37% to 34%.
Coming on the heels of a series of policy speeches culminating in a Sept. 11 address to the nation outlining the Presidents vision for domestic anti-terror programs and the War in Iraq, the Zogby survey shows President Bushs standing has increased five points since mid-August, when just 34% of voters rated him positively. Bush had previously risen to 37% in a Sept. 5 Zogby America poll.
The poll does, however, suggest a Democratic strategy of nationalizing the mid-term elections has succeeded, with 71% of respondents in the poll saying their vote this fall will be driven by national, rather than local, issues. But voters planning on casting ballots for Republicans are more likely than those voting for Democrats to say they are casting their ballot based on national issues by a 79% to 69% margin.
Another positive development for Congressional Republicans is that one in four of their supporters23%consider terrorism the top issue as they go to the polls, easily the top issue for those backing the GOP. This is the same percentage as say they will vote for Democrats based on the War in Iraq and general U.S. foreign policy. Republican candidates also continue to benefit from the dual issues of morality and values, which are motivating one in nine voters planning to pull the Republican lever this fall. Another 8% of GOP supporters say the War in Iraq and U.S. foreign policy are their prime motivators.
For Democrats, meanwhile, the war in Iraq is clearly the top issue, at 23%. But more traditional Democratic issues like jobs and the economy (14%), education (10%), and healthcare (5%) round out the top four issues for Democratic voters. Terrorism barely registers, at 4%, while the environment is a non-issue for Democrats at 2%, despite repeated discussion over the past year of global climate change.
War in Iraq, Terror Dominate Mid-Terms
Among those voters who say national issues are motivating them at the ballot box, the war in Iraq is clearly the most important single issue, with 22% indicating they will cast their ballot based on the conflict. Terrorism, meanwhile, follows at 14%.
The Iraq War remains unpopular, with a narrow 51% majority saying the conflict has not been worth the loss of American lives, with 42% say it has. Interestingly the survey finds that seniors are among the least favorable in their view of the war, with 58% saying it has not been worth the loss of lives, while middle-aged Americansthose 30 to 49are closely divided, with 49% saying the war has not been worth the loss of American lives while 46% say it has. Voters under the age of 30 are less sure, with 49% believing the war has not been worth the losses, 39% believing it has been, and 12% undecidedthe most of any age group.
Unsurprisingly, Republicans and Democrats continue to view the war in different terms. While 68% of Republicans say the war has been worth the cost in lives, 76% of Democrats disagree. Democrats seem Still, the overall numbers represent a marked shift from early September, when 58% of likely voters said the Iraq War has not been worth the lives lost.
Despite Close Battle, Congress Remains Unpopular
Regardless of the late GOP surge, Congress continues to be viewed negatively by the vast majority of voters. Just 19% of those polled had a favorable impression of Congresss performance on the joba number that cut across party and geographic lines.
Pollster John Zogby: Both parties can find advantages in our latest polling. Democrats have partly succeeded in making the congressional races about national issues now the question is whether they will succeed in providing an alternative to Republicans. Republicans are helped by President Bush's improving job approval numbers and by cutting the lead of Democrats in congressional races. While the Republicans benefit from voters who are concerned about the war on terror and moral issues, Democrats are helped by voters who are most concerned about the Iraq war or the economy.
It's funny how much better a "generic Democrat" does than any actual Democrat.
Disclaimer: Zogby sucks at prognosticating. LOL BUMP!
Democrats peak in May, 'Pubbies peak on Election Day.
This is gonna be good! I can already hear the whining and gnashing of teeth that will be coming from the Donks after the Pubbies increase their margins in both houses of Congress.
Woo Hoooooooo ....
| Good Lord! If Zogby has it this close the Democrats are in for a big surprise.
Just saw this cartoon on another thread and it fits here too.
Oh man... that'll be some fantastic Shadenfreude.
All conservatives have to do is keep the peddle to the metal and vote ASAP in early voting, and get all their conservative friends and family members to vote Republican. Keeping our boots on the liberals throats will guarantee a liberal loss nationally, and give the GOP two more years to fight the war, loser taxes, protect the border, support constructionist Judges, and marginalize RINOs and make them realize which party they belong to. Every conservative victory makes it harder for RINOs to oppose the conservative majority. Just have to keep the pressure on. :)
Yes isn't it AWESOME!? I can't wait till that Wednesday morning to get more pictures of crying liberals. And to drop in to DU and read all the vulgarity and see the carnage. :) Heheheheheh. You just can't beat REAL ideas and solutions, and that's the GOP. Period.
Boy is that ever accurate symbology. Excellent cartoon. :)
Watch out, everytime the Dems are close but failing the media party will come to the rescue with some made up story indicting the Republicans and White House. Check your watch and look for some story that paints republicans as racists nazis. I predict this story will be broken by ABC to make up for the 9/11 program.
Rasmussen is really the most accurate of all the national polls - I think they got it right by half a percentage.
Gotta love futures markets. The are *very* accurate predictors of the future.
Are these "respondents" all adults, registered voters or likely voters?
While he encourages us not to get overly-excited, today Rush referenced internal Republican polling that reflects this same positive results. Rush said Republicans find the upward tick in republican numbers almost "unbelievable", so they must be pretty impressive.
That was excellent and well stated.....Asides from these logical reasons there is an entertainment benefit as well for wouldn't it be a total riot to watch the RAT response if they lose seats after all their chest beating?! There is nothing funnier than an unhinged Liberal!! Thanks and Freegards DN