Posted on 09/15/2006 10:42:53 AM PDT by West Coast Conservative
Following an aggressive media blitz, the latest Zogby America poll finds the standing of President Bush and congressional Republicans climbing as the November elections rapidly approach.
The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 12-14, 2006, included 1,034 respondents, and carries a margin of error of +/– 3.1 percentage points.
The poll contains good news for congressional Republicans battling a strong Democratic push to retake the House and Senate. While Republican congressional candidates trailed their Democratic counterparts in the “generic ballot” question by a 39% to 31% margin a month ago, today they have whittled the Democrats’ lead to just three points, 37% to 34%.
Coming on the heels of a series of policy speeches culminating in a Sept. 11 address to the nation outlining the President’s vision for domestic anti-terror programs and the War in Iraq, the Zogby survey shows President Bush’s standing has increased five points since mid-August, when just 34% of voters rated him positively. Bush had previously risen to 37% in a Sept. 5 Zogby America poll.
The poll does, however, suggest a Democratic strategy of “nationalizing” the mid-term elections has succeeded, with 71% of respondents in the poll saying their vote this fall will be driven by national, rather than local, issues. But voters planning on casting ballots for Republicans are more likely than those voting for Democrats to say they are casting their ballot based on national issues by a 79% to 69% margin.
Another positive development for Congressional Republicans is that one in four of their supporters—23%—consider terrorism the top issue as they go to the polls, easily the top issue for those backing the GOP. This is the same percentage as say they will vote for Democrats based on the War in Iraq and general U.S. foreign policy. Republican candidates also continue to benefit from the dual issues of morality and values, which are motivating one in nine voters planning to pull the Republican lever this fall. Another 8% of GOP supporters say the War in Iraq and U.S. foreign policy are their prime motivators.
For Democrats, meanwhile, the war in Iraq is clearly the top issue, at 23%. But more traditional Democratic issues like jobs and the economy (14%), education (10%), and healthcare (5%) round out the top four issues for Democratic voters. Terrorism barely registers, at 4%, while the environment is a non-issue for Democrats at 2%, despite repeated discussion over the past year of global climate change.
War in Iraq, Terror Dominate Mid-Terms
Among those voters who say national issues are motivating them at the ballot box, the war in Iraq is clearly the most important single issue, with 22% indicating they will cast their ballot based on the conflict. Terrorism, meanwhile, follows at 14%.
The Iraq War remains unpopular, with a narrow 51% majority saying the conflict has not been worth the loss of American lives, with 42% say it has. Interestingly the survey finds that seniors are among the least favorable in their view of the war, with 58% saying it has not been worth the loss of lives, while middle-aged Americans—those 30 to 49—are closely divided, with 49% saying the war has not been worth the loss of American lives while 46% say it has. Voters under the age of 30 are less sure, with 49% believing the war has not been worth the losses, 39% believing it has been, and 12% undecided—the most of any age group.
Unsurprisingly, Republicans and Democrats continue to view the war in different terms. While 68% of Republicans say the war has been worth the cost in lives, 76% of Democrats disagree. Democrats seem Still, the overall numbers represent a marked shift from early September, when 58% of likely voters said the Iraq War has not been worth the lives lost.
Despite Close Battle, Congress Remains Unpopular
Regardless of the late GOP surge, Congress continues to be viewed negatively by the vast majority of voters. Just 19% of those polled had a favorable impression of Congress’s performance on the job—a number that cut across party and geographic lines.
Pollster John Zogby: “Both parties can find advantages in our latest polling. Democrats have partly succeeded in making the congressional races about national issues – now the question is whether they will succeed in providing an alternative to Republicans. Republicans are helped by President Bush's improving job approval numbers and by cutting the lead of Democrats in congressional races. While the Republicans benefit from voters who are concerned about the war on terror and moral issues, Democrats are helped by voters who are most concerned about the Iraq war or the economy.”
I predict that they will be carrying on about how the polls showed them winning in August and those polls are never wrong!
Then the tinfoil will come out and we will see conspiracy theories in abundance.
I hated myself for enjoying it so much.
All conservatives have to do is keep the peddle to the metal and vote ASAP in early voting, and get all their conservative friends and family members to vote Republican
Amen. It's all about GOOV - Get Out Our Vote. If conservatives who care about politics ask their family, friends and neighbors in their precinct to vote the right way, 80% of those asked will... just because they were asked and not because they care about politics.
Most good people care about the NFL, American Idol, church and family; NOT politics. We need to reach those people.
Who ever wins the ground game wins 90% of the time. That Hail Mary airgame wins less than 10% of the time.
Yeah, but if Zogby says it's so, . . .
LOL. That's a great fad. :)
And Rasmussen predicted on the Sean Hannity show that the GOP would only lose 5 House seats at this point. Rush Limbaugh said on Friday's show that new Internals are saying the GOP will keep the House and Senate.
tigtog, great point. Right now CBS is digging thru Garbage cans looking for the next big GOP scandal to help their allies at the Democratic party. Maybe chuckie Schumer can get a hold of some more Republican Candidate Credit Reports.
http://www.Tradesports.com did tank after the Bogus exit polls of Election Day 2004, with Bush going from 51% to 10% within 2 Hours.
Discounting Zogby's bias, this means the Pubs are dead even or ahead.
Isn't this poll kind of worthless because what matters is district by district and state by state voting? (Yeah, I know, a lot of folks think Zogby's worthless anyway).
And who has the Zogby Special Sauce? I want to see it!
Since this is from zombie, the GOP is probably up by 2 or 3 points and surging.
I wrote: "Rush said Republicans find the upward tick in republican numbers almost "unbelievable", so they must be pretty impressive. "
You responded: "What does that say about the GOP that they didn't see this coming"
And I want to thank you for thinking through to the more serious implication of what Rush said. I missed it entirely, {slapping my wrist}.
What does it say about the GOP???? Nothing good!!
That could very well backfire on the ragheads and help the GOP. We're not like the spaniards.
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