Skip to comments.Polls: GOP losing grip on Senate
Posted on 10/02/2006 7:57:49 AM PDT by SmithL
WASHINGTON -- Democrats are within striking distance of taking control of the U.S. Senate on Election Day, a series of new polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC showed today.
Democratic Senate candidates are tied, have a slight edge or an outright lead in every one of 10 pivotal battleground states. No Democrat trails in those races; no Republican leads. Democrats must gain six seats to capture control of the 100-member Senate.
Democratic candidates have a strong chance to win all seven at-risk Republican Senate seats -- with their candidates tied in Virginia and Missouri, holding a slight edge in Ohio, Rhode Island and Tennessee, and leading in Montana and Pennsylvania.
Democrats are also in position to hold their three most vulnerable seats -- with a slight edge in New Jersey and leading in Maryland and Washington.
This in-depth, state-by-state look at the political landscape of 10 Senate battleground states five weeks before Election Day, Nov. 7, is based on a series of polls by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Inc.
Seven were conducted for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC, and three for other newspapers were made available to McClatchy. Each state poll was conducted by phoning 625 likely voters in the final week of September. The error margin is plus or minus four percentage points.
"These numbers look very encouraging for the Democrats to take control of the Senate," said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker.
Democrats are faring well and Republicans are on the defensive for several reasons: dissatisfaction with President Bush, disapproval of the war in Iraq, anti-incumbent sentiment and some anxiety about the economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC = Not Credible news sources.
....there fixed it.
What's the difference between "likely" and "registered" voters? Is it that "likely" may not be "registered," and, if they're not "registered," why bother to ask them? They can't vote unless they're registered. what am I missing here?
If the fence-sitters hand control of Congress to the Demoncrat Party - you will have no problem in seeing the differece.
not to mention this onling gambling thing. A whole lot of poker players who hadn't been paying attention to this election, or even politics in general, woke up yesterday to find that their recreational pastime has been criminalized by Congress. In a close election, it's just one more thing that might make a difference.
The polls we're seeing now are push polls. The results depend on who's paying for the poll. As we get closer to the election, the polls will become more accurate. The pollsters have to be close at the end or they'll be out of a job.
Remember, also, polls are taken by old fashioned land line telephone. What party has more people sitting around the telephone waiting for their drug dealers and pimps to call? What party has people too busy with their families, churches, jobs , and modern technology to take care of irritating things like soliciting phone calls?
Always add at least 5 points to Republicans. They're too hard to contact. A break down of polled respondents always has the numbers democrat heavy, and some of them even lie and say they're Republicans thinking they're doing it for the benefit their their mutable liberal gods (democrats are weird people).
Don't let their weighted polls convince you that it's hopeless and you might as well stay home, people.
The same with their exit polling.
Good, at least we're in trouble over something that is actually the Rs fault. That gambling rider was dumb. Just a sop to the casinos and Indian (Native American ) lobbies.
Good old Dr. Dobson was just on Laura Ingram's show and that wasnt his opinion. He was still spouting off about how values voters werent motivated because congress had done nothing for them.
What short memories you folks have. Don't you remember the job the Rats did on poll results just before the 2004 election? They had the Rats winning everywhere up until the last poll of voters outside the polling places. I am from Missouri and I predict Talent will win over McCaskill. And, I just cannot believe the people of VA will boot out Allen because of racial comment lies. Moreover, Menedez is in deep do do in NJ. Santorum has always come from behind to win. So let's not start with the crying towel just yet.
"Everyone keeps saying how the polls showed Kerry up late in 2004. I don't recall that at all.
I recall it being within 1 or 2 points, and then in the final few days, GWB being up 1 or 2."
Harris changed their methodology during the 2004 campaign by further upping the already dem-heavy sampling they were using in their polling. Their office is in upstate New York, and I called them after their ridiculous end of the campaign poll came out and asked them how they came up with their ludicrous methodology. I was told their "research" showed them that the dems had signed up "millions" of new voters and that the dems were much more motivated and eager to vote then the Repubs. They also told me about the dems much vaunted "get out the vote effort." Obviously they were wrong. I don't doubt it's going to be a real fight, and the Repubs better pour money into these tight races during these final weeks. I also hope and pray our "get out the vote effort" is ready and raring to go.
This has to be the only poll I've seen with the Dems having a "slight edge in New Jersey". It's either been neck-and-neck or Kean by 5.
Yes, every election we have the same worries and then we live it all over again.
Both registered and likely voters are registered. But a fair number of people who are registered to vote don't exercise their right. So the best polls are those who screen them out, leaving only the likely voters. The trick is predicting who will vote based on their past behavior.
I think that Gallup, for example, asks if you a registered to vote. If you are, they ask a series of seven questions to establish whether you are likely to vote.
Registered voter polls do not correspond as well to final results as likely voter polls.
Naturally this Mason-Dixon stuff is more of a registered voter poll than a likely voter poll which is why the results are so far off from other polls.
This is all part of the MSM agenda, being cheerleaders and propagandists for the 'Rats.
We had this information last week. The polls were released Friday, they are from the 22-28th. I guess they are going to make this a story every day for a while, to make it look like there is momentum.
Thanks for the helpful explanation.
That's the Rasmussen numbers from Sept28-October 1st, which is after all the "n-word" nonsense. It matches a 2-day SurveyUSA poll done last thursday-friday that showed Allen up 50-44.
In all these polls, Webb can't get over 45%. Some have more undecideds, some less, but Webb's always at 43-44%.
Allen is doing a 2-minute "address" to virginia at 7:58 tonight, I hope it focuses the race back on issues, because Allen crushes on issues that Virginians care about.
625 aught to give you a plus minus of 4% minumum. Naturally there are a lot of variables that come into play given that certain communities tend to vote one way or another. Sample distibution is the issue here. Sample size is not.
Apparently you were not a very good student.