Skip to comments.Tropical depression may form in Caribbean Thursday (Would be Joyce)
Posted on 10/12/2006 7:40:47 AM PDT by varina davis
Tropical depression may form in Caribbean Thursday
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Oct 12, 7:32 AM (ET)
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A low-pressure system in the northeastern Caribbean Sea could develop into a tropical depression over the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said in an outlook issued Thursday.
The system, moving northwestward at about 10 to 15 miles per hour, could cause some flooding and mudslides over mountainous terrain. It was located about 50 miles south of Nevis and St. Kitts.
The weather models split on what the system will do over the next several days.
A couple of the models projected the storm would turn west across the Caribbean, remaining south of the Greater Antilles, and heading toward Nicaragua and Honduras. Other models showed the storm continuing northwest toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
The Greater Antilles include Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and Puerto Rico.
If the system ultimately strengthens into a tropical storm, packing maximum wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph, the NHC would name it Joyce.
Hurricane Hugo was an October storm.
I thought October might ramp up since we've had such a quiet tropical season so far.
What the heck. We're not out of names yet or at least down to the Zelda, Zebra letters yet?
Oh that's right. Global warming took a hurrican season "off".
The MSM waits, hoping for a disaster.
This is Rove's October surprise?
It looks like it may divide. Twins?:')
Well the TV weathermen down here on the Gulf Coast can now get their cookies off....they've been sorely depressed (yep - a pun intended)over the lack of any hurricanes this year!
Hurricane Kate (1985) was a November storm that hit just before Thanksgiving.
Here in the Florida Panhandle, we have a series of cold fronts coming through, the first being tonight.
Cold fronts are sudden death to hurricanes, as we have found out on several occasions, so it looks like we're safe from whatever this one turns out to be.
Is this what they consider journalism these days?
J-Joyce? Shouldn't we be up into the second set of storm names? That's the panicked voices I heard last year.
They are getting desparate for something (ANYTHING!) bad to happen beore election day.
Weather reports with "may" in them are useless.
Joyce -- Perfect -- That's my borther's ex-wife's name, and boy was she a windbag!
Thanks for the pings. The models look favorable to avoid a U.S. landfall. Will watch to see if this develops.
I don't think so Cindy, but they just issued another advisory for Invest 91L in the East Atlantic, right behnd 90L, so the season might be ramping up a bit!
Heard a rumor that the Republicans are already planting the explosives in the dikes in N.O.......
That's true, but given the latitude of possible TS Joyce, I don't think it will be affected that much.
It was just something I was looking at WU. Thinks do seem to be heating up.
Not really. If you've ever been through a TS or 'Cane, you would want to be forewarned as early as possible.
desperate...spell check doesn't help a lot when there are hominyms...
We're all (potentially) DOOMED!
Didn't say it would. What will likely happen is that the cold airmass approaching Florida will prevent the storm from making landfall here.
I retired from 32 years of hurricane forecasting here and I have seen this scenario a number of times. It's not a function of the calendar. It's all about continental air-masses and the change in the winds aloft that accompany them this time of year.
Today's upper air soundings over Tallahassee show that we already have vigorous westerlies up there and they will increase and become northwesterly. This is the current SKEWT from Tallahassee:
Winds at that level (and velocity) can easily steer a tropical storm or hurricane....or destroy one.
That's very true. Thanks for the info and graph.
Might go east, north, or west. Well, that narrows it down.
Hey that's my middle name and only SOME people think I'm a windbag!!! : )
Every Joyce that I know is a "talker" :')