Posted on 10/12/2006 2:28:50 PM PDT by Renfield
Ouch!!! That is good...
Making way for the Hildabeast.........
there oes the Dem's srongest candidate. Unfortunaely, there goes John Warners Senate seat (probably).
All I can say is... THANK GOD!!!! 'nuf said.
It's very odd. Just last week he was consulting with people I know about what his stance should be on various issues. He was acting for all the world as if he were getting ready to run.
You're not far off base.
Recall the 2000 primary races. Al Gore had the nomination wrapped up just with pre- convention super delegates. He had no competition. The dems were in a position to miss out on all that primary campaign air time.
Republicans would have had a monopoly on political news stories until the dem convention
Dem answer: beg Bill Bradley to oppose Gore. He stayed in the primaries just so dems could be in the news.
yitbos
I can understand the logic behind Mark Warner's decision. He would have had to spend the next two years and a large part of his fortune in an intense struggle for the nomination, with the odds still heavily favoring Hillary. By dropping out now, he leaves himself with many political options, including the good possibility that he could be tapped for the Democratic VP spot.
I could easily see Hillary picking Warner as her running mate. Her big task after the primaries will be trying to position herself as a moderate Democrat who can win moderates and independents in the general election. Warner would help immensely in that regard.
I'd much rather have had Warner as the Democratic Presidential nominee than any of the other serious contenders (Clinton, Kerry, Edwards, and Gore). But we should also pay attention to Obama: His cooperation with Tom Coburn on earmarks and spending transparency issues has burnished his image as a non-crazy non-fringy politician who can sometimes reach across the isle.
The best I can say for Warner's decision is that he's angling for '12. To think otherwise is to say that the man does not want to be president. He wants to be president. That is, he's either going for '12 or he's entirely pulled away from it.
The latter is the more likely scene. I can see no reason whatsover for the man to put off for '12. A Senate run? VP? Come on. No one aspires to be VP. With the marvelous exception of Dick Cheney, the VP office is a reward held only for runner ups of the Presidential race. Warner ain't no Cheney.
I'd rather agree with freepers here who think Hitlery -- or someone -- has found the goods on Warner. I've dealt in the past with some of his associates; they are ugly people. I'd guess some of the slime showed through.
First of all, the VP nomination is not a "reward" for runner ups, it is traditionally a means of balancing a ticket or targeting an important state or region of the country so as to improve the ticket's chances of winning. Cheney was a rare exception to geographical targetting and conventional balancing. Cheney was chosen mostly for his real abilities, which he has indeed exercised as VP, but also for his "gravitas" to lend Bush credibility.
Second, many people aspire to be the VP nominee, for a very simple reason: It gives them an excellent chance of eventually becoming President. With the country as divided as it is, the Presidential/Vice-Presidential ticket of either party has at least a 40% chance of winning the election, just on general principles. And once elected, the Vice-President has a significant probability (I don't know the exact percentage off-hand) of later becoming President, either because the President dies or otherwise has to give up his office, or because the VP will win the Presidency on his own during a future term.
The odds are long against any specific individual ever becoming President. But the odds for a Vice-President to become President are relatively better than for almost anyone else including prominent Governors and Senators.
I would have given Warner a 5% to 10% probability of winning the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008 if he'd stayed in the race. But I give him a 15% to 30% chance of being picked for the VP slot this way. And that in turn gives him as good an overall probability of someday becoming President as if he'd run directly for the Democratic Presidential nomination.
With rare exception in the modern era, you gotta run for president to get the VP nod.
Warner just denied himself both. Sorry, this decision ain't strategic. It's catastrophic.
Remember the FBI files hitlary obtained? There were, I believe, around 2100 of them in total, and entered into a database caled WHoDB. There were quite a few dems in the pile, I believe.
Wonder if Warner was one of them..?
There's something in his closet....IMO.
I think more likely it's the realization that there is no room in the RAT party for anyone who isn't a flaming rabid dog anti national defense, anti-Bush, liberal. Say what you will about Warner, he doesn't fit the RAT profile of those that are running the party...IMO.
Plus, there probably is something in his closet.
... or perhaps Hillary pulled Mark Warner's raw FBI File and had one of her operatives suggest to him that he really wanted to go the way of Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Rudy Guiliani. No one is to stand between Hillary and her goals.
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