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InTrade: Odds of GOP House Control and GOP Senate Control
TheStreet.com & InTrade.com | Oct 19, 2006 | Liz Rappaport - InTrade.com

Posted on 10/19/2006 8:01:24 AM PDT by rface

At present, a Democratic win in the House of Representatives is largely priced into the stock market, which has rallied to new highs through the campaign process thus far. Futures markets put the likelihood of a Democratic takeover, or at least 15 net wins in the House, at 63.1%, according to InTrade.

Odds of a Democratic takeover in the Senate have been increasing of late, but remain at 32.6%, according to InTrade. In the Senate, the Democrats must win a net six seats to gain control.

above is a small excerpt from a TheStreet.com article......

Democratic House No Pox on Stocks

By Liz Rappaport
Markets Columnist
10/19/2006 9:15 AM EDT
TheStreet.com


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
so: Current odds of GOP keeping the house are 37% and 67% for keeping the Senate.....

I wish I could fine the actual chart and story on InTrade.com, but I can't figure out how to navigate that site......maybe somebody else can locate this info and post it here.....

1 posted on 10/19/2006 8:01:25 AM PDT by rface
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To: rface

How accurate have their predictions been in the past?


2 posted on 10/19/2006 8:08:36 AM PDT by Darkwolf377 (Republican, atheist, pro-life)
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To: rface

Right now it's 32.4% for the House and 71.9% for the Senate.


3 posted on 10/19/2006 8:11:44 AM PDT by AntiGuv (o) (o)
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To: Darkwolf377

There predictions are pretty accurate. I use Tradesport.

They have confirming numbers.

As it stands now the GOP is almost assured to lose the House and very likely to retain the senate.


4 posted on 10/19/2006 8:16:18 AM PDT by mlbford2 (If you are going to make a hole, make it a big one.)
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To: mlbford2

You are right the GOP is set to loose at minimum of 19 seats in the house and as of this week a max of 27 seats in the house.

Also, as of this week the GOP will loose 5 seats in the Senate.


5 posted on 10/19/2006 8:18:34 AM PDT by LM_Guy
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To: Darkwolf377
In the past, the online betting tended to follow, not lead the actual polling. Note in 2004 when the early raw exit polling predicted a Kerry win, there were wild price fluctuations.

But now, since the Bushmeister signed the bill outlawing internet gambling, I dunno if it's even valuable as a summary of the polling. I think Zogby's interactive might have evolved into a more useful tool, which isn't saying too much.

6 posted on 10/19/2006 8:18:56 AM PDT by Sooth2222
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To: Sooth2222
""But now, since the Bushmeister signed the bill outlawing internet gambling, I dunno if it's even valuable as a summary of the polling.""

Bingo!

Trade Sport would be illegal under the new Anti-Gambling Act. Kinda goes hand and hand as to why the GOP is set to lose seats in both houses.

Brought to you by a staunch Republican tilting towards Independent.
7 posted on 10/19/2006 8:36:40 AM PDT by baystaterebel (http://omphalosgazer.blogspot.com/)
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To: baystaterebel
Brought to you by a staunch Republican tilting towards Independent.

The terms here are mutually contradictory. Is the rest of your thought consistent with that model?

8 posted on 10/19/2006 11:33:08 AM PDT by arthurus (Better to fight them over THERE than over HERE)
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To: baystaterebel

wow cuzyou cant gamble on the internet anymore, youll vote for the party that hates american exceptionalism??


9 posted on 10/19/2006 11:38:13 AM PDT by DontBelieveAugPolls
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