Skip to comments.InTrade: Odds of GOP House Control and GOP Senate Control
Posted on 10/19/2006 8:01:24 AM PDT by rface
At present, a Democratic win in the House of Representatives is largely priced into the stock market, which has rallied to new highs through the campaign process thus far. Futures markets put the likelihood of a Democratic takeover, or at least 15 net wins in the House, at 63.1%, according to InTrade.
Odds of a Democratic takeover in the Senate have been increasing of late, but remain at 32.6%, according to InTrade. In the Senate, the Democrats must win a net six seats to gain control.
above is a small excerpt from a TheStreet.com article......
Democratic House No Pox on Stocks
By Liz Rappaport
10/19/2006 9:15 AM EDT
I wish I could fine the actual chart and story on InTrade.com, but I can't figure out how to navigate that site......maybe somebody else can locate this info and post it here.....
How accurate have their predictions been in the past?
Right now it's 32.4% for the House and 71.9% for the Senate.
There predictions are pretty accurate. I use Tradesport.
They have confirming numbers.
As it stands now the GOP is almost assured to lose the House and very likely to retain the senate.
You are right the GOP is set to loose at minimum of 19 seats in the house and as of this week a max of 27 seats in the house.
Also, as of this week the GOP will loose 5 seats in the Senate.
But now, since the Bushmeister signed the bill outlawing internet gambling, I dunno if it's even valuable as a summary of the polling. I think Zogby's interactive might have evolved into a more useful tool, which isn't saying too much.
The terms here are mutually contradictory. Is the rest of your thought consistent with that model?
wow cuzyou cant gamble on the internet anymore, youll vote for the party that hates american exceptionalism??