A Record Drop In Home Prices

Washington Post ^ | October 26, 2006 | Kirstin Downey

[GodGunsGuts]

The price of existing homes last month fell 2.2 percent, the largest monthly decline in the almost four decades the number has been tracked, according to an industry report released yesterday.

Nationwide, the number of existing single-family homes sold fell 14.2 percent in September compared with September 2005, according to the report from the National Association of Realtors. The number of sales has fallen each month since March.

Prices fell everywhere in the country, with the Northeast and West most affected. Declines were more moderate in the South, which includes the Washington area....

[GodGunsGuts]

ping

[italianquaker]

with the record increase this is fine, my home is still up34% in 1 year

[eyedigress]

Hey, what's this news about central banks in Europe dropping the dollar and trading in Euro's.

[GodGunsGuts]

This has been an ongoing discussion going on between many nations. Some of it is just petty/political, some of it is because many nations fear a free fall in the USD (based on our national debt, triple deficits, etc). None of them want to be left holding the bag, should the dollar fall another 30 or 40 percent.

[djf]

Have you heard that as a fact?

[pfony1]

So what?

Fewer McMansions sold this month than sold last month, so the "average" price of all houses sold this month has gone down.

Big whoop....


"Lies, d@#m lies and statistics."

[eyedigress]

Just rumors http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2006-10-26T144946Z_01_WBT006123_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ECONOMY-GREENSPAN-DOLLAR-DC.XML

[ladtx]

Prices fell everywhere in the country, with the Northeast and West most affected.

The MSM is slipping. That should have been, "women, children and minorities most affected." Some editor is going to get fired over this.

[dangus]

Go figure... People are speculating in the stock market, rather than making housing unaffordable. So long as this doesn't develop into an all-out, economy-wrecking crash, I'm happy.

[eyedigress]

Maybe Toddler should have bought some gold last week. :^)

[MrShoop]

Fewer sales doesn't mean a decreasing average, or have any effect on average other than making it more volatile.

[sten]

another factor to hit home prices in the coming years will be the 78m baby boomers retiring. Its already started and as they retire, they will most likely move to a warmer, cheaper area. The baby boomers will start to hit 63 in 2010.

The folks that can afford early retirement are already moving. Look for prices to increase in the south and southwest, especially states with no state income tax (texas, florida, nevada)

[GodGunsGuts]

Toddler and Co. have backed themselves in a corner. They won't be buying gold any time soon. But the blood will most certainly run out of their collective faces when gold resumes its next leg up.

[Mikey_1962]

Dow hit a new record;

Oil Price Dropped Again;

NASDAQ at 6 year high;

Durable Goods UP largest amount in 6 years;

Terrible, just Terrible

[Mase]

because many nations fear a free fall in the USD (based on our national debt, triple deficits, etc).

More nonsense you keep repeating but can never justify. Just like your babbling on about the fundamentals driving gold. Our annual national debt is just 2% of GDP. Historically, it's averaged about 2.7%. You've also never been able to explain -- at least not in any way that makes sense -- how the triple(?) deficits will cause the dollar to drop. Care to try again, or are you tired of being shown to have no idea what you're talking about?

should the dollar fall another 30 or 40 percent

Another 30-40%? Against what currency and over what time frame? Has the government not been able to sell any of it's debt instruments because of this fear of being left holding the bag?

What chart from goldbug Sinclair will you be using today?

[eyedigress]

I'm doing well, thank you very much! :^)

[Mase]

Goldbug in the house ping.

[umgud]

Yeah, a record drop after a hugh record rise. Come on, let's get series here.

[eyedigress]

WoW! Look at that dollar go!

[Nathan Zachary]

The price of existing homes last month fell 2.2 percent, the largest monthly decline in the almost four decades the number has been tracked.

Houses are still 5 times what they cost 40 years ago. Housing prices will have to fall an awful lot before things get as "bad" as they were 40 years ago.

[Nathan Zachary]

They should have bought gold 4 years ago.

[eyedigress]

I agree, even 2 years ago it was at 412.00.

[Barney Gumble]

This is MSM slight-of-hand. They want to complain about the economy, but can't. They'd love to complain about the Dow, but can't. So they focus on a slight correct in housing. I bet the MSM has ran many more articles on the housing adjustment than the Dow at 12,000.

[Barney Gumble]

Gold is a lousy long term investment.

[GodGunsGuts]

I don't know about lousy. But it has most certainly been an excellent investment for the last five years.

[MrShoop]

Gold and housing are both bad long term investments - so both sides have their delusions.

[Stultis]

!

See also:

Days Before Halloween, NBC Treats Real Estate Like Dawn of the Dead ^

Posted by freemarket_kenshepherd On News/Activism ^ 10/26/2006 1:16:36 PM CDT · 13 replies · 401+ views Business & Media Institute ^ | October 26, 2006 | Ken Shepherd If NBC’s Carl Quintanilla is in a bind about what to wear to the NBC News Halloween party, he could always go as a “housing bubble.” With only five days until Halloween, NBC “Today” show sought to spook viewers with yet another negative story on the housing market. But Quintanilla dressed up his attack on the economy with the same disguise The New York Times used a day earlier: a look at how hardware retailer Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is changing its business model to retain customers during a cooling housing market. “There’s even more bad news for the housing...

[GodGunsGuts]

Gold/PM stocks are presently a good long-term investment because of the fundamentals (money supply, national debt, triple deficits, etc).

[Toddsterpatriot]

What price could I have bought it for?

[RockinRight]

I'll start:

We're Doomed!!
It's Bush's Fault!!
Housing Bubble!!
Greenspan's Fault!!
Buy Gold!!

Did I cover it all?

[rabidralph]

Oh, the humanity! Now, the American Dream of home ownership is within sight again for the middle class.

[djf]

So have the Feds. If they raise rates, tens of thousands of ARMS will adjust upward.

If they don't, foreign investors will flee the dollar.

[Toddsterpatriot]

If they don't, foreign investors will flee the dollar.

LOL!

[defenderSD]

Just a normal correction in a market that was overextended to the upside. This happens every day in the stock market. Are you ever going to move on to another subject?

[GodGunsGuts]

==Against what currency and over what time frame?

Against our major trading partners, and in a shorter time that it took to go from 120 to 80.

==Has the government not been able to sell any of it's debt instruments because of this fear of being left holding the bag?

This is nothing new, Mase. We have been warned, and will continue to be warned until the rest of the world decides to take action to protect themselves from our deficits (or until we take action to lower our deficits). When the US begins to take serious steps to address the triple deficits (not to mention the national debt) that is when I will exit gold...and not a moment sooner.

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2005/02/05/world_banks_warn_us_on_deficits/

[defenderSD]

That is hilarous. Foreigners will flee the dollar for what....for gold...LOL? The US is the best place to invest in the entire world and foreign investors will continue to buy dollars so they can invest in America.

[defenderSD]

That is such a dumb headline. The "record drop" is merely a small percentage of correction of the record rally in home prices. You always get bigger corrections after bigger rallies. Do these people learn anything in journalism school other than how to write?

[Toddsterpatriot]

Against our major trading partners, and in a shorter time that it took to go from 120 to 80.

You have any context, charts or facts to flesh out your panic? Or are we supposed to just translate your gibberish from your native goldbug?

[bruinbirdman]

"78m baby boomers retiring. . . .The baby boomers will start to hit 63 in 2010."

Hint, very many baby boomers retired early. They just haven't started to draw SS yet. Early retirees don't need it.

yitbos

[Mase]

The price of existing homes last month fell 2.2 percent, the largest monthly decline in the almost four decades

If I didn't know any better this might scare me.

• In September the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) released its House Price Index. Even though there has been a slowdown in price appreciation, home prices were 10.06% higher in the second quarter of 2006 than they were in 2005.

• This slowdown is really just a reduction in the rate of increases compared to the past. For example, in the second quarter of 2005, the yearly home price appreciation was 14%.

• Over the past 12 months home price appreciation in Florida, Idaho and Arizona has been more than 20%. In Washington it was 17%, California 14% and New York 10%.

• Annual home price appreciation since 2000 has averaged about 9%. During that same time the Dow is up around 1%. In the 1990's home price appreciation averaged 2.9% while the Dow grew by almost 300%.

Housing has slowed so you become purveyor of doom and talk about fundamentals that don't exist. Over the past two months housing has slowed a great deal and you've cited that as vindication of your doomsaying. What you fail to recognize is that over that same two month period the Dow has increased by more than 6%. This tells me that investors are confident in our economy and that your fundamentals are fundamentally flawed.

[GodGunsGuts]

They are worried that our national debt and our triple deficits will cause the dollar's downtrend to resume (and accelerate):

[bruinbirdman]

"Gold is a lousy long term investment."

I have a tenth-ounce goldpiece. It has not earned a penny of interest in 20 years.

yitbos

[bruinbirdman]

"The US is the best place to invest in the entire world and foreign investors will continue to buy dollars so they can invest in America."

Why?

In a word "liquidity".

yitbos

[GodGunsGuts]

Goldstocks have beem appreciating faster and paying better dividends than most other investments for the last five years.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Wow, scary chart. Looks like the dollar has tanked since 1969. Are we doomed yet? Our economy must have been crushed by that drop. We must not be the biggest economy in the world anymore.

Any facts to go with your 120 to 80 factoid?

[Toddsterpatriot]

and paying better dividends

Now you're just making stuff up. What's the dividend yield on the Amex Gold Bugs?

[Mase]

We have been warned, and will continue to be warned until the rest of the world decides to take action to protect themselves from our deficits

The World Bank is warning us? ROFL!

We had trade and budget deficits throughout the 80's and 90's and your precious metal sucked wind.

Look at that. The Treasury is having so much trouble unloading our debt instruments that the yield has moved from 5.1% to 4.72% over the past six months. Yeah, they're really running from the dollar. LOL!

[Muleteam1]

>>Look for prices to increase in the south and southwest, especially states with no state income tax (texas, florida, nevada)<<

Possibly but Texas property taxes are causing this early retiree to move to a State with an income tax.

[logician2u]

Houses are still 5 times what they cost 40 years ago.

There can be no arguing the fact that, for most Americans in most states, owning a home is a good investment. You have to live somewhere, so why not take the money it would cost to rent (after taking the mortgage and property tax deduction) and buy a house? It's better than putting it into just about any other ordinary investment (even gold!) and you get to live rent-free.

Where the whole house of cards begins falling apart, unfortunately, is when you have new buyers -- a working couple in their 20s, for example -- signing up for a variable-rate, or worse, an interest-only, loan that they barely qualify for. Minimum down payment, no other assets but a car (which is financed, also) and a baby or two on the way or planned.

Should the husband or wife lose his or her job, they won't be able to make their house payments. After six months, the lender will foreclose. The house may have increased in value, but don't expect the poor couple to benefit from that after it's foreclosed on. And don't expect the bank to put any money into as much as cosmetic improvements once they get title, because banks don't do that; they just want to get it off their books.

So, a house that's worth maybe $300K will go on the market for $275K and sell for $270K, leaving the bank whole but the former owners wiped out. They won't be buying again soon.

Multiply this scenario by literally hundreds of thousands and you understand why it is that home prices can take a dip, even though, as you say, they are way above what they were 40 years ago.

It's just that only a small fraction of the population has been in their home long enough to realize that kind of gain.