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NPR's Ken Rudin Predicts Democrats Will Take Control of House of Representatives
NPR ^ | October 26, 2006 | Ken Rudin

Posted on 10/27/2006 1:06:25 PM PDT by StJacques

Oct. 26, 2006  With the midterm elections less than two weeks away, the Republican Party faces the real possibility of forfeiting its grip on the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994. As the chart above shows, at last count, the forecast from NPR Political Editor Ken Rudin sees Democrats ahead in 211 races, Republicans ahead in 204 races, and 20 races as tossups.

At last count, NPR's numbers suggest there are 60 key races that could swing control of the House. . . .

(Excerpt) Read more at npr.org ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; congress; election; house; wishfulthinking
Here's the graphic from the page:



Sadly; the numbers RealClearPolitics.com presents, race by race, seem to support Rudin's conclusion, though their overall outlook is not quite as grim.

It looks like I'm going to be buying a lot of Rolaids in the near future. Election night will almost certainly turn my stomach if these numbers hold up.
1 posted on 10/27/2006 1:06:28 PM PDT by StJacques
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To: StJacques

And I predict I will be given $10 million dollars tomorrow morning.

There, all of us can have fun. What a great game.


2 posted on 10/27/2006 1:08:15 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Victory will never be achieved while defining Conservatism downward, and forsaking it's heritage.)
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To: StJacques
NPR's Ken Rudin Predicts Democrats Will Take Control of House of Representatives

This is an example of the Democrat based "educational faith-based" propagandizing.

3 posted on 10/27/2006 1:08:51 PM PDT by Alia
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To: StJacques

The NPR political editor is not a source that I would turn to for a straight-up assessment


4 posted on 10/27/2006 1:10:24 PM PDT by ElkGroveDan (The California Republican Party needs Arnold the way a drowning man needs an anvil.)
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To: StJacques

That's why he is at NPR and not some high paying prognostication job.


5 posted on 10/27/2006 1:10:37 PM PDT by Natural Law
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To: StJacques

NPR, that bastion of truth? WE'RE DOOMED!


6 posted on 10/27/2006 1:10:42 PM PDT by frogjerk (REUTERS: We give smoke and mirrors a bad name)
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To: StJacques

More like WISHING, than predicting.


7 posted on 10/27/2006 1:10:49 PM PDT by mutley ("I read the Koran, and didn't find anything of value in it.")
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To: Alia

Exactly. I wonder if anyone from NPR has EVER predicted a Republican victory?


8 posted on 10/27/2006 1:13:18 PM PDT by The Blitherer (You were given the choice between war & dishonor. You chose dishonor & you will have war. -Churchill)
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To: mutley

The numbers at RealClearPolitics.com -- see the link in my "Comments" post -- suggest the Democrats are very likely to get a gain of 16 or 17 seats. And those guys are not shivvin' for the Dems.


9 posted on 10/27/2006 1:14:32 PM PDT by StJacques (Liberty is always unfinished business)
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To: StJacques

Michael Barone and National Review are looking at a 16-17 RAT pick in the House.


But, we can still make those predictions false. The House is all about GOTV. I compare our chances of holding the House to a football team trying to kick a 50 yard field goal.


10 posted on 10/27/2006 1:15:23 PM PDT by Kuksool (Design your Own Polls. Go Vote and Take a Few Others With You)
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To: DoughtyOne
I will be given $10 million dollars tomorrow morning.

I'll split it with you.

11 posted on 10/27/2006 1:16:19 PM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: StJacques

Rocko predicts Ken Rudin will be proven wrong.


12 posted on 10/27/2006 1:17:13 PM PDT by Rocko ("Ned Lamont doesn't know anything. You might as well vote for Michael Bolton." -- O'Reilly)
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To: StJacques

No, but they are basing their bets on dim controlled polling!

LLS


13 posted on 10/27/2006 1:18:02 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Preserve America... kill terrorists... destroy dims!)
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To: StJacques
This is NPR and Real Clear politics ain't that much better.

Remember the polls of Obragore in Mexico winning by a landslide?

14 posted on 10/27/2006 1:18:36 PM PDT by Dane ("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
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To: StJacques

"suggest the Democrats are very likely to get a gain of 16 or 17 seats. And those guys are not shivvin' for the Dems."

That may be so, but I won't believe it till I see it happen. The American people aren't that stupid...at least, not enough of them.


15 posted on 10/27/2006 1:20:39 PM PDT by mutley ("I read the Koran, and didn't find anything of value in it.")
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To: StJacques

Trust the Perdogg, the GOP will retain control.


16 posted on 10/27/2006 1:20:59 PM PDT by Perdogg (Democratic Party - The political wing of Al Qaida)
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To: Dane

NPR IS the voice of the DNC. Don't believe ANYTHING they say.

NPR is why AA could not find a liberal audience.


17 posted on 10/27/2006 1:21:44 PM PDT by kjo
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To: StJacques

The fact that we still pay for NPR is one of the reasons the Republicans are having difficulties. I hope we are rewarded on election day with a Republican majority in Congress that finally cuts all government funding for NPR and PBS.


18 posted on 10/27/2006 1:21:46 PM PDT by pnh102
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To: mutley
That may be so, but I won't believe it till I see it happen. The American people aren't that stupid...at least, not enough of them.

You can fool all of the people some of the time, and you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you can often fool enough of the people enough of the time to control Congress.

I'll remain cautiously optimistic, and agitate for everyone I know to get out and vote.
19 posted on 10/27/2006 1:23:52 PM PDT by WardMClark (Semi-Notorious Political Gadfly)
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To: StJacques

One hopes in the near future, that NPR, that socialist wing of the left, will no longer be funded by hard working tax-payers.


20 posted on 10/27/2006 1:24:22 PM PDT by KenmcG414
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To: Dane
"Remember the polls of Obragore in Mexico winning by a landslide?"

Did RealClearPolitics predict that? I didn't know that if they did.

What I remember very well is that RealClearPolitics was WAY out in front of everyone else on the surprising mid-term showing of the Republicans in 2002. And they did very well in the presidential election of 2004 too.

21 posted on 10/27/2006 1:26:02 PM PDT by StJacques (Liberty is always unfinished business)
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To: pnh102
I hope we are rewarded on election day with a Republican majority in Congress that finally cuts all government funding for NPR and PBS.

Ha! The GOP majority couldn't even get rid of low flow toilets, hardly a political loser. Don't hold your breath.

22 posted on 10/27/2006 1:29:29 PM PDT by Major Matt Mason (Both parties suck.)
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To: StJacques
RealClear Politics takes the average of media polls, that is. We will keep control of both Houses of Congress.
23 posted on 10/27/2006 1:38:11 PM PDT by jveritas (Support The Commander in Chief in Times of War)
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To: jveritas
"RealClear Politics takes the average of media polls, that is. We will keep control of both Houses of Congress."

Yes; but they do more than that jveritas. They also provide their own analysis, and I'll be looking very closely to see what they have to say.

One thing I am convinced of right now is that we Republicans have momentum on our side. In 2002 the Democrats peaked way too early and the Republican surge at the end surprised just about everyone except RealClearPolitics. I am now in no doubt we will keep control of the Senate. But I am just not seeing the numbers and analysis in the House races to indicate that we might retain control there.

I do hope you are right in your prediction however. I intend to post an in-depth analysis of my own as we get very close to election day.
24 posted on 10/27/2006 1:47:30 PM PDT by StJacques (Liberty is always unfinished business)
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To: StJacques
Tradesports shows a GOP House at 36%.

They also predicted a Kerry win right up until the day of the election.

25 posted on 10/27/2006 1:48:47 PM PDT by Yo-Yo (USAF, TAC, 12th AF, 366 TFW, 366 MG, 366 CRS, Mtn Home AFB, 1978-81)
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To: StJacques
Jim McTague of Barron's has an article whereby he believes that money raised by the candidate has a strong connection to the result in the election. He predicts that the GOP will retain control of both houses of congress, losing 8 to 14 seats in the House and losing 2 in the Senate.

Survivor! The GOP Victory

26 posted on 10/27/2006 1:56:38 PM PDT by SuperSonic (Bush "lied", people dyed.......their fingers purple.)
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To: StJacques

President Bush and Karl Rove said that we will maintain control of both Houses and I trust their judgment. The record is on their side as they crushed the democrats in three consecutive national elections. The media polls are very biased as you know, there is not a single poll that does not over sample democrats and independents leaning democrats. Two days ago Karl Rove told NPR that he based his analysis on 68 polls weekly where as the media based their analysis on few public media polls a week. Rove knows in much more accurate way how things are going and he is confident that we will keep control of both Houses.


27 posted on 10/27/2006 1:57:01 PM PDT by jveritas (Support The Commander in Chief in Times of War)
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To: StJacques

Karl Rove told me that the Republicans will maintain control of both houses. I trust Karl.

I may be completely wrong, but I just don't believe the "regular pollsters" are very good at judging turnout. I think that is especially true in the house races.

BTW, does anyone have any data on the 2 GA house seats that we have a chance to take?


28 posted on 10/27/2006 2:04:24 PM PDT by MMcC
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To: StJacques
NPR = Air America on Welfare
29 posted on 10/27/2006 2:06:40 PM PDT by Doctor Raoul (Difference between the CIA and the Free Clinic is that the Free Clinic knows how to stop a leak.)
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To: StJacques

What happened to that jubilant "30-50 seat" pickup we were hearing about just a few weeks ago?


30 posted on 10/27/2006 2:16:34 PM PDT by Gritty (A vote for the Democrats is a vote to return to Bill Clinton’s holiday-from-history - Mark Steyn)
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To: The Blitherer
By jove, I think you are right about that. They never, to my hearing and knowledge have predicted ANY Republican win.

Obviously, NPR is allied with the Democrat "educational faith-based" propagandizing strategery.

31 posted on 10/27/2006 2:26:52 PM PDT by Alia
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To: Dane
"Obragore" in Mexico ?

ROFL!

32 posted on 10/27/2006 2:28:02 PM PDT by Alia
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To: Gritty

Michael Barone still says 16 seats and I trust him. However, with better turnout that 16 could be lowered. The GOP would keep control, if only by a very tiny margin.

Sad thing is, if the Dems do win with something like 218-220 seats, it will almost be as if the GOP handed them their margin of victory. If Foley, Sherwood, Ney and a few others had not gotten in trouble, they would be headed to reelection. Or they should have been told to step aside sooner.


33 posted on 10/27/2006 2:36:47 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: DoughtyOne

About 45 minutes ago, on John Gibson's "Big Story", Michelle Malkin predicted a 50-50 senate, and a slim RAT majority in the house. What has she been smoking?


34 posted on 10/27/2006 2:58:33 PM PDT by thelastvirgil (Lest ye put all your faith in the government to provide for you, check their track record.)
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To: thelastvirgil

IMO, even if you think that is how things will turn out, it's still a poker game and nobody should feel like they need to lay their cards on the table face up.

I wish Republicans would learn this. It's not lying to simply state you're not sure how it will turn out. Nobdy is.

I like Michelle, but wish she wouldn't engage in this type activity.


35 posted on 10/27/2006 3:33:23 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Victory will never be achieved while defining Conservatism downward, and forsaking it's heritage.)
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To: StJacques

What's a Ken Rudin?


36 posted on 10/27/2006 3:43:19 PM PDT by rod1
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To: DoughtyOne
NHM's L. Medford Predicts Republicans Will Keep Control of House of Representatives
37 posted on 10/27/2006 3:43:44 PM PDT by WesternPacific
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To: Izzy Dunne

You're welcome to half of my pipe-dream.


38 posted on 10/27/2006 3:45:59 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Victory will never be achieved while defining Conservatism downward, and forsaking it's heritage.)
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To: WesternPacific

Let's hope they're right.


39 posted on 10/27/2006 3:46:56 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Victory will never be achieved while defining Conservatism downward, and forsaking it's heritage.)
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To: StJacques

"
One thing I am convinced of right now is that we Republicans have momentum on our side. "

We have momentum but from a tide that was at 25 Dem pickup in the worst polls ...

We have to keep getting stronger and not fade.

As it stands today, nobody can truly predict if we keep it to single digits Dem pickup or a 25 seat Dem pickup with a majority.

IT IS OUR ACTIONS ON THE PERSONAL LEVEL THAT MAKE A DIFFERENCE.

So contact everyone you know to vote Republican, and the GOP holds the Congress.


40 posted on 10/27/2006 7:59:10 PM PDT by WOSG (Broken-glass time, Republicans! Save the Congress!)
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To: TNCMAXQ
I disagree, the MSM was hell bent on making this election about the "Culture of Corruption" Look how they pummeled us with the NON scandals like Tom Delay and Valarie Plume.
If it hadn't been Foley, it would have been something else. Thats just the way it is, there is no accountability in the press. And you see what happens to Conservatives who fight back. Allen, Rush and Ann Coulter to name a few.
41 posted on 10/28/2006 10:19:09 AM PDT by Nav_Mom
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To: thelastvirgil

I think it will be a 51(R)-48(D)-1(I) Senate if Allen and Corker hold on. The House will have a D majority of 3. Races will be close enough that fradulent ballots will pull it through for the Dems. A couple of tossup house races in KY will likely go Dem.


42 posted on 10/28/2006 10:47:50 AM PDT by damper99
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